NEE 2015 1 Final
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ADVERTISEMENT NEW EASTERN EUROPE IS A COLLABORATIVE PROJECT BETWEEN THREE POLISH PARTNERS The City of Gdańsk www.gdansk.pl A city with over a thousand years of history, Gdańsk has been a melting pot of cultures and ethnic groups. The air of tolerance and wealth built on trade has enabled culture, science, and the Arts to flourish in the city for centuries. Today, Gdańsk remains a key meeting place and major tourist attraction in Poland. While the city boasts historic sites of enchanting beauty, it also has a major historic and social importance. In addition to its 1000-year history, the city is the place where the Second World War broke out as well as the birthplace of Solidarność, the Solidarity movement, which led to the fall of Communism in Central and Eastern Europe. The European Solidarity Centre www.ecs.gda.pl The European Solidarity Centre is a multifunctional institution combining scientific, cultural and educational activities with a modern museum and archive, which documents freedom movements in the modern history of Poland and Europe. The Centre was established in Gdańsk on November 8th 2007. Its new building was opened in 2014 on the anniversary of the August Accords signed in Gdańsk between the worker’s union “Solidarność” and communist authorities in 1980. The Centre is meant to be an agora, a space for people and ideas that build and develop a civic society, a meeting place for people who hold the world’s future dear. The mission of the Centre is to commemorate, maintain and popularise the heritage and message of the Solidarity movement and the anti-communist democratic op- position in Poland and throughout the world. Through its activities the Centre wants to inspire new cultural, civic, trade union, local government, national and European initiatives with a uni- versal dimension. The Jan Nowak-Jeziorański College of Eastern Europe www.kew.org.pl The College of Eastern Europe is a non-profit, non-governmental founda- tion founded on February 9th 2001 by Jan Nowak-Jeziorański, a former head of the Polish section of Radio Free Europe and a democratic activist. The foundation deals with cooperation between the nations of Central and Eastern Europe. The aims if its charters are to carry out educational, cultural and publish- ing activities, and to develop programmes which enhance the transformation in the countries of Eastern Europe. The organisation has its headquarters in Wrocław, Poland, a city in western Poland, perfectly situated in the centre of Europe and with a deep understanding of both West- ern and Eastern Europe. Dear Reader, On the pages of this magazine we have many times discussed the different meanings of “East” and “West”. While the latter is generally agreed to refer to an ideal more than a geographic location, greater difficulties arise when we try to understand what is meant by “Eastern Europe”. That is why, in this issue we have decided to cover a region which, from a geographic and axiological perspective, has in recent years been seen as northern Europe but which today finds itself on the edge of potentially becoming “Eastern Europe” again. The countries that com- prise it – especially Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – re-emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union and are today full-fledged members of the EU and NATO. In early 2015, more than ever before, we value this membership in western political and military structures keeping in mind that Russia’s attempts to bring them back to its sphere of influence are a test of the western alliance. This test needs to be passed by politicians, but also analysts. They too, as Paweł Kowal boldly argues, are to blame for our passivity in regards to Russia’s annexa- tion of Crimea last year and – if things do not change and we do not start treating Vladimir Putin’s words seriously – will be to blame if such drastic measures as a nuclear attack are undertaken. Thus, the current conflict in Eastern Europe is not a regional matter anymore. In this regard, we agree with Andrew Wilson, whose newest book Ukraine Crisis. What it Means for the West we review and recommend to anyone who today cares for world affairs. Specifically on Ukraine, Russian writer and intellectual Boris Akunin, poignantly points out that in the wake of last year’s events, Russia has lost its closest friend; perhaps for good. In return, it got Crimea under quite controversial circumstances. As Akunin further argues, the future of both Crimea and eastern Ukraine should be decided on by the people who inhabit those territories and he firmly believes they are finally going to be given that choice. Sharing these very many points of view we encourage you to continue engaging with us online via our website, Facebook and Twitter. We also invite you to share your thoughts with us via email at: [email protected]. The Editors Contents Opinion & Analysis 7 The Poverty of Analysts “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk Paweł Kowal are seen by many as disquieting evidence of Why did the astonished West helplessly the current Russian leadership’s aggressive watch Russian troops enter Crimea and intentions. The question now remains: what Donbas? Why, as popular opinion states, will Sweden’s role in the region be in the face nobody could have foreseen this event? of growing security tensions with Russia? One of the hypotheses that comes to mind is that the analysts are to blame. 51 Controlling the Trolls Will the “Crimea mistake” be repeated A conversation with Jānis Kārkliņš in regards to the next moves of Vladimir and Raul Rebane Putin? Years from now, will we be reading about the “nuclear mistake”; as time and 57 The Riddle of Kaliningrad again nobody is taking Putin seriously? Miłosz Zieliński 9 Perspective: Our Blindness 69 Taking the Eastern about Russia is Depressing Partnership Seriously Andrew Wilson Rafał Sadowski 12 Perspective: Let’s Return 77 Why Germany Won’t Lead the West to our Jobs as Analysts Klaus Bachmann Balázs Jarábik In the first days of the EuroMaidan Revolution, German media, politicians and the wider public 19 The I-Told-You-So Nation saw the events in Kyiv through a simple and Ahto Lobjakas affirmative lens. However, once it became clear that a full-blown conflict between Russia and To say that the current situation in the region Ukraine was possible, the German public quickly does not create a good setting for stable reverted to its well-known pacifist reflexes. This policymaking is to understate the severity of the was the moment when the pro-Russian attitudes predicament. It has put enormous demands on of the German public coincided with German Estonian policymakers who can only hope that materialistic interests in avoiding sanctions Russia respects Estonian sovereignty. If not, and an interpretation of the events became then Estonia will respond as forcefully as it can. easily susceptible to Russian propaganda. 26 Latvia’s Turn to Take the Lead 86 Circuses without Bread Diāna Potjomkina Wojciech Jakóbik 34 Vilnius, One Year Later 94 Exiled in One’s Own Homeland Laurynas Kasčiūnas, Vytautas Keršanskas Lily Hyde The annexation of Crimea by the Russian 42 Rysskräck and Sweden’s Ambivalence Federation has been difficult for a majority Matthew Kott of the Crimean Tatars. Many have lost their Since the upheavals in Ukraine in 2014, jobs, fled or just disappeared. Those that tensions have risen markedly in the countries remain, now fear that their homeland, which around the Baltic Sea. The annexation of they fought so hard to get back in Soviet Crimea and the support for the so-called times, has once again been taken away. 105 Are Georgian Politics Books and Reviews about to become Boring? Dustin Gilbreath 168 Dangerous Myths Iwona Reichardt Interviews On Andrew Wilson’s Ukraine Crisis. What it means for the West 112 I Will Be Back 170 A Testament to Poland’s Success A conversation with Mikheil Saakashvili William Schreiber “The very moment Bidzina Ivanishvili loses power there will be no way to avoid my On The Maidan Uprising, Separatism and Foreign return to Georgia. I am certain I will return to Intervention. Ukraine’s complex transition. Georgia, even sooner than the elections.” Edited by Klaus Bachmann and Igor Lyubashenko 118 I Have Never Left Russia 171 Detecting Russian Imperialism An interview with Boris Akunin Paweł Kowal On Jan Nowak-Jezioranski’s The Atlantic Republic Reports 174 Confession or Justification? Maryana Prokop 124 No Country for Young On Viktor Yushchenko’s Non-state Secrets. Men (or Women) Notes on the edge of memory Benjamin Cunningham Following mass protests resembling those 176 Investigating Corruption and Greed of Occupy Wall Street or Tahrir Square that Igor Lyubashenko began in the summer of 2013 in Bulgaria, On Sergii Leshchenko’s Mezhyhirskyi Syndrome. one would assume a significant shift in the A diagnosis of Viktor Yanukovych’s power subsequent parliamentary elections. Yet, following the October 2014 elections, it seems 179 Shevchenko Demythologised that the biggest winner was the status quo. Eugene Sobol On George G. Grabowicz’s The Unknown 132 Walking the Media Tightrope Shevchenko. Essays on the Poet’s Justin Hyatt Symbolic Autobiography and Reception History 182 Alternative View on Politics Dorota Sieroń-Galusek On Karol Modzelewski’s We Will Ruin the Jade 143 A Balkan-Ukrainian Palimpsest of the Past. Memoire of a bruised horseman Adam Balcer People, Ideas, Inspiration 153 The Stronger One Wins the Day A conversation with Zdzisław Najder 161 Latvia’s Female Powerhouses Grzegorz Szopiński Content with the notation (CC) is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. All attempts are made to give proper and appropriate EDITOR AND PUBLISHER attribution to the author and source.