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Lidl Is Coming! Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top The 4Ps of Lidl Understanding Lidl’s US Entry and Working with Walmart to Protect Your Business Mike Paglia, Director Laura Kennedy, Director April 20, 2017 Doing Business in Bentonville 6.75in Content Bottom 1 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Copyright © 2017 Kantar Retail. All Rights Reserved. 501 Boylston St., Suite 6101, Boston, MA 02116 T: +1 (617) 912 2828 [email protected] No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photography, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without the express written permission of Kantar Retail. The printing of any copies for backup is also strictly prohibited. Disclaimers The analyses and conclusions presented in this seminar represent the opinions of Kantar Retail. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the retailer(s) under discussion. This seminar is not endorsed or otherwise supported by the management of any of the companies covered during the course of the workshop or within the following slides. 6.75in Content Bottom 2 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Agenda 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Lidl’s Here: Why It Matters The Walmart Impact • What Suppliers Need to Do 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Sample source runs here 3 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl is a European Powerhouse SALES CAGR 1.25in Heading Baseline 2011-2016E 4-7% 1.88in Content Top $160,000 13,000 7-12% Sales Stores 12,540 13-19% $140,000 12,194 20%+ $120,000 11,847 12,000 $100,000 No. Stores 11,491 $80,000 11,124 $60,000 10,888 11,000 $95 BILLION Sales USD BillionsSales $40,000 $20,000 10,888 STORES $95,276 $102,731 $111,335 $119,777 $128,621 $137,390 $0 10,000 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 4 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin It’s For Real: Lidl is Coming! 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis, Washington Post 5 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl’s Anticipated First Wave in the US 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis; Google Maps; Supermarket News 6 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl Will Grow into a Formidable Retailer Within Five Years 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Overall Sales Forecast Store Growth Forecast (USD Billions) 630 $8.8 530 $7.1 430 $5.4 330 $3.8 230 $2.1 120 $0.7 20 $0.1 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Many People Have the Wrong Idea About Lidl 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top The Misconception: Lidl operates down market discounters with a corresponding in-store experience. Its shoppers are predominately low income, coming from poor areas, who do most of their shopping there. Lidl competes primarily with other discounters like Aldi. The Reality: Lidl operates a variety of no-frills, midmarket stores that are pleasant to shop. Its shoppers, who come from a wide range of income brackets, are all price-sensitive. They demand a fast, easy fill-in trip, but for different reasons. Lidl attracts shoppers from larger-format supermarkets and supercenters. 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin The Big Surprise is Who is Leaking Share to Lidl 1.25in Lidl £m switching gains of +£ 367m Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Tesco £102 Asda £102 Sainsbury’s £72 Morrisons £58 Waitrose £12 Co-op £9 In deps & £6 Symbols Aldi £5 Iceland £1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 £m Switching Note: 52 weeks ending Jan. 1, 2017 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Worldpanel 9 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl Will Surprise Many as a Mid Market Retailer 1.25in Heading Baseline 100% 1.88in Content Top 13% 14% 14% 16% 16% 15% 15% Household 90% 21% 22% 23% 26% 25% 25% 27% Income 31% 32% 36% 80% 15% < $25k 18% 19% 18% 18% 25% 22% 70% 26% 26% $25k – 11% 17% 27% 29% 30% $49.9k 60% 18% 28% 28% 19% 19% 17% 20% 30% 29% 50% 14% 28% $50k – 12% $74.9k 15% 18% 18% 40% 13% 13% 13% 15% 19% 19% 15% 16% 18% $75k – Lidl Here? Lidl 30% 11% 17% 17% $99.9k 13% 15% 12% 11% 11% 10% 20% 44% 42% 10% 35% 34% 9% 9% $100k+ 33% 31% 30% 7% 24% 10% 21% 19% 19% 18% 19% 17% 13% 13% 13% 0% 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 10 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Walmart Is at High Risk 1.25in Many will feel pressure, but not all equally Heading Baseline High Risk Winn Dixie 1.88in Content Top Giant Foods Bi-Lo Medium Risk Walmart Safeway Food Lion Stop & Shop Harris Teeter Low Risk Kroger Wegmans Acme Markets Target Aldi Publix Dollar Tree Family Dollar Dollar General 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 11 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin How Does Lidl Approach the Four P’s? 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Unconventional Innovative Disruptive Reconfigurable 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail aanalysis 12 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl has a Rotational Assortment Strategy 1.25in Nothing lasts forever Heading Baseline 1.88in Traditional Content Top Begin recoup Rampup investment Sales Launch “Soft landing” exit & investment Time Lidl Assumes meet/exceed velocity hurdles Sales Item #1 Item #2 Item #3 6.75in Time Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 13 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Private Label is Central to the Assortment 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Private Label Architecture PREMIUM STANDARD BUDGET 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 14 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl Has Identified Critical Categories To Help Them Drive Traffic 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Wine Ethnic Produce Total Core Offer Check- Hero Meat & Categories Limited Offer Out Fish Offer F2G Bakery HBC 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 15 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Brands Have Five Distinct Roles in Lidl’s Stores 1.25in Heading Baseline 1. Acceptance 1.88in Content Top • Drive shopper/household penetration through helping to develop the discounters’ image as an acceptable place to shop. 2. Conversion and Penetration • Leading brands help to convert discounter shoppers to purchase in the category. Drive penetration in existing categories or help launch new categories. 3. Comparison • Provide a basis for comparison to private label brands. 4. Build Basket • Using Brands to expanded categories help to build total basket size 5. Drive Frequency • Time sensitive in and out promotions 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 16 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl’s Disruptive Approach to Branded Pricing 1.25in Heading Baseline Baby Care Edible Household Personal Care TOTAL BASKET Lidl Index Lidl Index Lidl Index Lidl Index Lidl Index 1.88in Retailer Subtotal to Subtotal to Subtotal to Subtotal Amount Double digit Content Top to Retailer to Retailer Retailer Retailer Retailer discounts at the Lidl £ 6.38 - £ 40.55 - £ 25.55 £ 18.31 - £ 90.79 - Tesco £ 6.35 100 £ 46.56 87 £ 28.00 91 £ 23.40 78 £ 104.31 87 basket level…. Asda £ 6.60 97 £ 46.56 87 £ 32.00 80 £ 22.00 83 £ 107.16 85 Index: Lidl to Asda – Personal Care Sub-basket …reinforced by deeper more punctuated discounts on KVIs 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis, mysupermarket.co.uk 17 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl’s Private Label Pricing is No Less Disruptive 1.25in Heading Baseline HBA Edible Nonedible TOTAL BASKET 1.88in Lidl Index Lidl Index Lidl Index Lidl Index Content Top Retailer Subtotal Subtotal Subtotal Amount to Retailer to Retailer to Retailer to Retailer Lidl £ 3.27 - £ 4.68 - £ 8.92 - £ 16.87 - Tesco £ 4.55 72 £ 5.49 91 £ 11.75 85 £ 21.79 89 Asda £ 4.45 73 £ 5.01 93 £ 10.02 89 £ 19.48 87 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis, mysupermarket.co.uk 18 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl Leverages Brands to Make its Initial Price Impression 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Fresh Category Offering Private Label Quality Private Label Prices TRIP FREQUENCY TRIP Branded Prices TIME (3-4 Years) 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 19 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Themes are Central to Lidl’s Promotional Efforts 1.25in Heading Baseline Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 1.88in Content Top Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis, company materials 20 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin There’s More to Lidl’s Promotions Than Selling Ad Blocks 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis, company materials 21 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin This is a Small Supermarket 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis; Kantar Retail Virtual Reality 22 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Stores Will be Modular and Reconfigurable 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top Phase 1 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 6.75in Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis; Kantar Retail Virtual Reality 23 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin Lidl Is a Multi Dimensional Disruptor 1.25in Heading Baseline Unconventional 1.88in Content Top Innovative Disruptive 6.75in Reconfigurable Content Bottom Source: Kantar Retail analysis 24 Left Margin 0.42in Right Margin 1.25in Heading Baseline 1.88in Content Top 2.
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