Technical Note

Project: SEMMMS To: SEMMMS Project Board Subject: Uncertainty Log v6 From: Atkins Consultancy Services Date: 6th July 2012 cc:

1. SEMMMS - Uncertainty Log 1.1 Introduction

This technical note was produced by Atkins for Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council, Manchester City Council and Cheshire East Council, as part of the supporting evidence for the Major Scheme Business Case for the SEMMMS A6 to Manchester Airport Relief Road. In order to assess the economic benefits and costs associated with the proposed SEMMMS scheme, forecast year(s) scenario testing is required, through the use of a multi-modal transport model. The SEMMMS appraisal will make use of a variable demand traffic model developed by Transport for Greater Manchester, Highways Forecasting and Analytical Services (TfGM, HFAS) and the MVA Consultancy (MVA). The appraisal process compares the ‘Do-Minimum’ (DM) scenario, which takes into account expected committed developments and changes in background travel demand and cost of travel against the ‘Do-Something’ (DS) scenario, which additionally includes the proposed SEMMMS relief road scheme. Future year development data typically has a degree of uncertainty surrounding some or all of the background assumptions which input into forecast year scenarios. Developments which are expected to be in place by a given forecast year, may in fact not be, especially given the current economic conditions and political influences. Conversely, there may be factors which are un- expected or unknown, which accelerate a particular development. It is these uncertainties which the Department for Transport (DfT) seek to investigate by testing alternative DM and DS scenarios with modified background assumptions and it is the ‘uncertainty log’ which supplies the basis for the constructions of these scenario assumptions. 1.2 Uncertainty Log Overview

The aim of the uncertainty log is to provide a basis for estimating the potential risk of forecasting errors in future year transport assessments, primarily with respect to land use and transport development changes which may have taken place by the given forecast years. Details of the proposed land use changes for employment, retail and/or housing development is collated, this data is typically supplied by local council planners. These developments are then assigned a perceived likelihood as to how probable they are to be in place by a given forecast year. Similarly, transport supply factors such as committed highway or public transport schemes are collated and categorized. The demand and supply components of the uncertainty log are then reviewed by stakeholders and agreement made for any adjustments. Different scenarios can then be constructed by categorizing developments which are grouped under some or all of these likelihood categories. The categories are explained in further detail later in this report.

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1.3 WebTAG – TAG Unit 3.15.5

The treatment of uncertainty in model forecasting is outlined within the Department for Transport’s (DfT) WebTAG TAG Unit 3.15.5. The aims of the TAG Unit are defined as follows; • An improved treatment of local sources of uncertainty in project analysis; • Better forecasts of the most likely outcome with and without the project; and • Closer integration of the project within the wider transport and land-use planning context. There is a clear distinction within this WebTAG unit that it is the potential errors within the forecast data inputs which this is concerned with, as opposed to any other model errors, such as cost- demand elasticities.

Classification of Future Inputs WebTAG provides the following guidance for categorizing developments or schemes which may have been included for the forecast year assessment;

Probability of the Input Status

Near certain: The outcome will happen - Intent announced by proponent to regulatory agencies. or there is a high probability that it will - Approved development proposals. happen. - Projects under construction.

More than likely: The outcome is likely - Submission of planning or consent application imminent. to happen but there is some uncertainty. - Development application within the consent process.

- Identified within a development plan. - Not directly associated with the transport strategy/scheme, but may occur if the strategy/scheme is implemented. Reasonably foreseeable: The outcome - Development conditional upon the transport strategy/scheme may happen, but there is significant proceeding. uncertainty. - Or, a committed policy goal, subject to tests (e.g. of deliverability) whose outcomes are subject to significant uncertainty. - Conjecture based upon currently available information. Hypothetical: There is considerable - Discussed on a conceptual basis. uncertainty whether the outcome will - One of a number of possible inputs in an initial consultation ever happen. process. - Or, a policy aspiration.

This table provides the basis for the categorization of future year developments, such as new office proposals or planned changes to the road infrastructure, which may affect the demand for, or supply of transport.

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1.4 Core, Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios

The Core Scenario represents the ‘best estimate’ of conditions in the forecast year(s). WebTAG 3.15.5 describes the steps by which to complete the core scenario and alternative / sensitivity tests as follows; • Assemble demographic, economic and other data for the study, drawing on the TEMPRO database and other material provided by the Department for Transport, together with material provided in regional and local planning documents (section 1.3). • Consider the sources of uncertainty and qualitatively assess their likelihood (section 1.4). • Establish a core scenario, based on national and local data and taking account of the uncertainty associated with various elements of that data (section 1.5). • Establish a range of alternative scenarios or sensitivity tests, where forecast inputs are likely to differ from the core and materially impact on analysis results (section 1.6). • In the analysis of scheme options, the core scenario and alternative scenarios or sensitivity tests should form the basis for a full appraisal. The core scenario would be reported in the AST, with alternative scenarios being exceptions (section 1.7).

It is about the Core scenario which the sensitivity tests ‘pivot’, adjusting some of the assumptions in the form of the Optimistic and Pessimistic scenarios, adding or removing developments (and hence their impact) dependent on the anticipated likelihood of their being in place by a given year. The Optimistic and Pessimistic scenarios maintain the overall level of growth in background traffic levels, but shift the distribution within districts, dependant on the distribution of assumed development for their respective scenarios, based on the uncertainty log input. For the purposes of this study, the Optimistic Scenario was taken as including the same developments as the Core Scenario, but also including Reasonably Foreseeable developments. Conversely, the Pessimistic Scenario includes only Near Certain developments. It is anticipated that there will be shifts in the proportional concentrations of development and traffic for the different scenarios, as discussed above.

1.5 Data Collection

The data collection process involved engaging with the various stakeholders to introduce the uncertainty log concept and the nature of the data which we required to enable the uncertainty logs to be compiled. The stakeholder parties included; • Cheshire East Council • High Peak Borough Council • Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM) - formerly the Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive and the Greater Manchester Transportation Unit • Highways Agency (HA) • Manchester Airport Group • Manchester City Council • Stockport Metropolitan Council

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• Trafford Council Information was collected for developments which were likely to be implemented by the opening and design years of 2017 and 2032 respectively. The information received was reviewed and where necessary, alterations were undertaken and, or additional information requested, to ensure the most up to date data was collated in a format appropriate for the purposes of the uncertainty log and alternative scenario creation. 1.5.1 Land Use Development Data The majority of the data collected for the uncertainty log comprised land use data received from local authority planners from councils whose boundary fell at least partially within the SEMMMS Area of Influence (AoI). A minimum limit was set for the size of developments to be included within the data set. For housing developments the agreed minimum was approximately 75 dwellings and for employment/retail use the agreed minimum floorspace was approximately 500 square meters. This was judged appropriate given that there were large numbers of very small developments which would have minimal impact and would be accounted for in the overall TEMPRO growth levels.

Likelihood Adjustments Following receipt of the land use development proposals by the five council areas, two main adjustments were made; • Where there is a lack of data associated with the development sites, these were excluded from the overall list, as without the size of the proposed development site area, associated development traffic demands could not be estimated. • In the case of Trafford, a mixture of individual developments and strategic areas were supplied. Some of these overlapped however, so where this was known to be the case, the areas of the individual developments was subtracted from the strategic areas, so as to avoid double counting. Core, Pessimistic and Optimistic After finalising the data supplied by the respective local authorities, three uncertainty log scenarios were created based on the following criteria; • Pessimistic – Near Certain items, • Core – Near Certain and More than Likely items, • Optimistic – Near Certain, More than Likely and Reasonably Foreseeable items. This finalised data is tabulated in Appendices A1 to A6 of this report. Details of the geographic locations of these development sites are provide in Appendices B1 to B6. Trip Rate Comparison Tables of trip rate comparisons for the data collected for the uncertainty log as described above are tabulated in Appendix C of this report. The tables show the average trip rates and 85th percentile trip rates for daily arrival and departures for the development sites for the 2032 Core Scenario.

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1.5.2 Transport Supply Data Public Transport (PT) Schemes For potential public transport schemes within the SEMMMS AoI, consultation was held with TfGM to ascertain any schemes which would affect the study area and the likelihood of the schemes being implemented by the opening and design years of 2017 and 2032 respectively. Table 1.1 gives the list of public transport schemes based on data received from (TfGM). Table 1.1 – Transport for Greater Manchester Public Transport Schemes Estimated Likelihood of Completion by: 2017 2032 Metrolink: Chorlton to East Near Certain Near Certain Didsbury Mterolink: Droylsden to Near Certain Near Certain Ashton Elements of Cross City Bus More than Likely More than Likely Package Park and Ride in Greater 50% NC 50% MTL 50% NC 50% MTL Manchester Longdale Integrated Transport Strategy (formerly Mottram Hypothetical Reasonably Foreseeable Bypass and Glossop Spur / LITS) Leigh-Salford-Manchester More than Likely More than Likely Busway Ashton Northern Bypass Near Certain Near Certain Stage 2* Airport and 2CC - Metrolink Hypothetical Reasonably Foreseeable Fund contributions to stations 50% NC 50% MTL 50% NC 50% MTL Altrincham Interchange More than Likely Near Certain Metrolink - Trafford Park Hypothetical Hypothetical Stockport Interchange Hypothetical Hypothetical Stockport Accessibility Hypothetical Hypothetical Package Stockport Town Centre Hypothetical Hypothetical Access Scheme * Ashton Northern Bypass Stage 2 recognised as a highway scheme, but included in list

Highway Schemes For potential highway schemes within the SEMMMS AoI, consultation was held with TfGM, HFAS to collate a list of highway schemes and assign a likelihood of their completion by 2017 or 2032. Consultation was also held with the Highways Agency (HA) with regards to any potential schemes affecting the Motorway and Trunk Road network within the SEMMMS Area of Interest. Table 1.2 shows the list of highway schemes based on data provided by TfGM, HFAS.

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Table 1.2 – Transport for Greater Manchester Highway Schemes. Estimated Likelihood of Completion by: 2017 2032 Within SEMMMS AoI* Stockport Accessibility Reasonably Foreseeable Near Certain Package Metrolink Phase 3B - More than Likely Near Certain Manchester Airport Mottram Bypass and Glossop Hypothetical Near Certain Spur Blue Works (M56 Junction 6) Near Certain Near Certain Pale Yellow Works (Runger Near Certain Near Certain Lane/Cargo Centre) Dark Yellow Works (Runger Near Certain Near Certain Lane/Thorley Lane) Red Works (M56 Junction 5-6 Hypothetical Near Certain Widening) Alderley Edge Bypass Near Certain Near Certain Outside SEMMMS AoI but potentially relevant* Metrolink Phase 3B - Chorlton More than Likely Near Certain to East Didsbury Western Gateway More than Likely Near Certain Infrastructure Scheme (WGIS) Metrolink Phase 3A - Near Certain Near Certain Chorlton1

Table 1.3 shows the list of highway schemes based on data provided by the HA. Table 1.3 – Highways Agency Highway Schemes. Estimated Likelihood of Completion by: 2017 2032 Within SEMMMS AoI* M60 Managed Motorway Hypothetical Hypothetical Junctions 24-27 & 1-4 A556 Knutsford to Bowdon More than Likely More than Likely Improvement Outside SEMMMS AoI but potentially relevant* M60 Junction 12-15 Widening More than Likely More than Likely M60 Managed Motorway More than Likely More than Likely Junction 8-12 M60 Managed Motorway More than Likely More than Likely Junction 12-18 M62 Managed Motorway More than Likely More than Likely Junction 10-12 Western Gateway Infrastructure Scheme (WGIS) More than Likely Near Certain Part* Western Gateway Infrastructure Scheme (WGIS) Hypothetical More than Likely Full* * Noted that WGIS is not an actual HA scheme

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PT and Highway Scheme Adjustments Subsequent to receipt of the data for the highway and public transport schemes, assessment was made of the likelihood and relevance of the various proposed schemes for inclusion in the uncertainty logs, with regard to these assessments, the following assumption was made; • Where there was a lack of knowledge concerning the details of the schemes, they were omitted from all scenarios, even if their likelihoods were listed as being greater than ‘Hypothetical’. Following these adjustments a final list of PT and highway schemes was agreed for the Core, Pessimistic and Optimistic scenarios and this list was circulated to the SEMMMS project board. The final list can be found in Appendix D. 1.5.3 Manchester Airport Manchester Airport is a one of the main stakeholders with respect to the SEMMMS scheme, being located adjacent to the proposed site and having direct connections with the scheme itself. Given the scale of the Airport in terms of existing and potential additional traffic demand on the surrounding transport network, specific discussions were held with Manchester Airport Group in order to establish their views on the Airport’s future year developments. A separate note has been written covering proposed developments at the Airport. The Airport note is included as Appendix E.

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Appendix A1 2017 ‘Core’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council)

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2017 Core Scenario Cheshire East

Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Planning Status Easting Northing (sqm) 2017

Large greenfield site allocated in Allocated with permission Tytherington Business Park Springwood Way, Circa 28,000 sqm B1a 2 Employment Local Plan. High quality business 392261 375965 More than likely remaining plots on phases 1 & 2 Macclesfield remaining park principally for B1 uses. Permission granted 13 Knutsford Supermarket Retail Brook Street, Knutsford 1,560 sqm food retail Edge of centre redevelopment site 375500 378483 Near certain 67 dwellings, 75-bed Site under construction - Macclesfield District General Cumberland Street, care home, 550 sqm Permission granted 14 Housing Surplus hospital land 390977 373935 Near certain Hospital Blue Zone Macclesfield retail and 3,600 sqm office block First phases under Whirley Road, 19 Henbury High School Site Housing 123 dwellings Former school site construction (only 37 still 389080 373747 Near certain Macclesfield left to build0

Site under construction - 24 Ingersley Vale Housing Bollington 66 dwellings Underused industrial site Permission granted 394231 377362 Near certain Permission granted for erection of part 2, 3, 4 Land near former Old Kings Chestergate, 26 Employment 576sqm A1 Brownfield town centre site storey building to provide 391525 373809 Near certain Head PH Macclesfield a mixture of A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 and B1 uses. Permission granted for the Lyme Green Retail 3179sqm gross, Brownfield out of centre retail park installation of mezzanine 27 Unit 8 Retail 391509 371165 Near certain Park, Macclesfield 1683sqm net A1 unit floor into existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted for the Lyme Green Retail Brownfield out of centre retail park installation of mezzanine 28 Curry's Ltd Retail 560sqm A1 391409 371133 Near certain Park, Macclesfield unit floor into existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted for the Lyme Green Retail 1352sqm gross, 720 Brownfield out of centre retail park installation of mezzanine 29 Unit 6 Retail 391448 371120 Near certain Park, Macclesfield sqm net A1 unit floor into existing retail warehouse unit. Alderley House, Permission granted 30 AstraZeneca Employment 6256 gross Erection of research building 384737 375562 Near certain Alderley Edge Haig Road / Mobberley Demolition of existing buildings and Permission granted 31 IFE Services Ltd Employment 2380 gross / 1180 net 376150 379507 Near certain Road, Knutsford erection of two new office buildings Erection of two new buildings Permission granted 32 Land at Mottram Way Employment Macclesfield 1903 gross / 654 net (phase 3) comprising six single 392086 374855 Near certain storey units Erection of two storey office Under construction, all building (b1) and five industrial buildings but final office London Road South, 33 Rupert House Employment 2522 storage and distribution units suite are complete 391660 382521 Near certain Poynton (b2/b8) with associated parking and turning areas. Demolition of existing buildings and Permission granted erection of three-storey office 34 22-24 Manchester Road Employment Wilmslow 1005 gross / 732 net 384897 381293 Near certain building incorporating car parking and alterations to access Erection of three storey extension Under construction at for b1 office purposes and present 35 Wycliffe House Employment Water Lane, Wilmslow 1520 384410 380995 Near certain provision of additional decked car parking accommodation

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2017 Core Scenario High Peak

Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Planning Status Easting Northing (sqm) 2017

Extension to existing E1 Morrisons extension Employment/Retail Buxton 1253 Full planning consent 406575 372959 Near certain supermarket

Extension to existing E4 Tesco Employment/Retail Whaley Bridge 1249 Full planning consent 401291 382103 Near certain supermarket

Supermarket – 1921 Mixed-use scheme including E5 Howard Town Mill Employment/Retail Glossop Mixed A1 non-food, A3 A1 (food and non-food), A3 Full planning consent 403545 393983 Near certain and A4 - 2517 and A4. Proposed chill store extension, pallet storage, Full planning consent E6 Staden Lane Employment/Retail Buxton B8 - 1168 407026 371986 Near certain office, canteen & staff facilities

Extension to the NE corner E7 Dinting Lodge Employment/Retail Glossop B2 – 12,160 Full planning consent 401746 394826 Near certain of the main industrial building

Construction of bottling plant E8 Waterswallows Road Employment/Retail Buxton B2 – 23,865 Full planning consent 407970 375375 Near certain and warehousing

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2017 Core Scenario Manchester City

Net Increase in Area / Number Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing of dwellings 2017

Housing sites under construction plus Near Certain H1 Sites at former Withington Hospital, West Didsbury Housing 299 additional land identified as suitable. 381767 394489 Complete Total capacity around 299 units

Housing site under construction. Approx H2 Housing Housing 50 380633 389778 Complete 50 units still to be completed Housing site partially complete. 147 H3 Styal Road, Woodhouse Park Housing 14 house, 135 apartments 384201 385752 Near Certain units in total. Housing site with expired permission, some works carried out in site H4 Wastdale Road, Baguley Housing 67 preparation. Revised application 381059 387846 Near Certain submitted but withdrawn. Suitable for 50-70 units. Housing site under construction. 88 H5 Portway/Petheridge Drive, Woodhouse Park Housing 88 381721 386363 Near Certain units.

H10 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 Planning Permission for 68 units 381024 387353 Near Certain Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly 20 % Near Certain (office proposed for B1 business and office use including Planning Permission for 15,000sqm of application) 80 % E4 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail 15,000 sqm / 30 ha 380548 385200 office development Reasonably Foreseeable including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly (Airport City) residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly 20 % Near Certain (office proposed for B1 business and office use including Manchester Business Park allocated in B1 - 73,000m2, B2, B8, A1, C1, application) 80 % E5 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail the City of Manchester UDP for High 381779 385654 C3 Reasonably Foreseeable including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly Technology Industries (Airport City) residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly 20 % Near Certain (office proposed for B1 business and office use including To be identified as part of a strategic application) 80 % E6 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail 383379 385010 location in the Core Strategy Reasonably Foreseeable including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly (Airport City) residential) at Manchester Business Park Employment/Retail E8 New District Centre Baguley A1, A2, A3, B1, C1,C2,C3 Identified in the draft Core Strategy 380288 389394 Near Certain

New Town Centre Bus Station at Wythenshawe Submitted Planning application and E9 Employment/Retail 0.540338 ha 382770 387124 Near Certain Hospital funding in place 3,120sqm of office planning permission on 0.39ha E11 Employment/Retail 3,120 sqm / 0.39 ha Under construction for B1 offices. 382838 387328 Near Certain at Cedars, Wythenshawe 20,169sqm on 3.04ha site at Didsbury Point, E13 Employment/Retail 20,169 sqm / 3.04 ha Planning permission for B1 383463 392501 Nearly certain Princess Road Etrop Court 2 shops, 6206sqm on 0.94ha office B1 E15 (District offices for the Local authority) at Employment/Retail 6206 sqm / 0.94 ha Planning permission for B1 382713 387187 Nearly Certain Rowlandsway, Wythenshawe E16 Private Hospital @ Didsbusry Point Employment/Retail 15,500m2 Planning permission 383580 392651 Near Certain

E17 New Bus Garage, Stage Coach @ Longley Lane Employment/Retail 4385 / 1.75 ha Planning Permission 383405 389049 Near Certain

E18 Recycling Centre rebuild@ Longley Lane Employment/Retail 7064m2 Planning Permission 383662 389062 Near Certain

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2017 Core Scenario Stockport

Dwellings/ Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Site Area Description Easting Northing Planning Status Floorspace (sqm) 2017 Major office development site with a Allocation in Cheadle Royal number of consents and outline Employment Area, E1 Cheadle Royal Employment Business Park, 11,000sqm B1 office 2.84Ha permission. Figure includes all land still 385340 385945 with some full Near certain Cheadle available for development, with permissions to be estimated floorspace implemented Higher Bury Full permission in E2 Green Lane Industrial Area Employment 574sqm B1 office 0.6Ha Office development at vacant site 388661 390666 Near certain Street, Stockport employment area Travis Perkins, Employment site E3 Cheadle District Centre Employment Lime Grove, 1011sqm B8 0.51Ha Redevelopment of existing site 385,699 388732 adjacent to district Near certain Cheadle centre Tiviot Way, Development of a number of B2 and B8 Permission E4 Former Thomas Storey Site Employment 19888sqm B2/B8 6.6Ha 389000 391000 Near certain Stockport units vacant employment site granted Conversion and extension to existing mills to provide 383 units and 88 units in new 6 storey block - 471 in total. Phase Site of New Mill, Houldsworth Under H1 Housing Reddish 291 2.77 I complete (180 flats) - hence no. of 389119 393678 More than likely Street construction units given is 291. Phase II (123) started but has stalled. Phases III and IV may be scaled back. Application granted Oct 2010 for 104, 106 Cross Lane and Park demolition of vacant foundry and Under H2 Housing Marple 79 1.93 395025 388354 Near certain and Paterson Ltd ancillary buildings and redevelopment of construction site for 79 dwellings. Redevelopment to provide 96 houses Under H3 Goyt Works, Station Road Housing Strines 96 2.5 397410 386519 Near certain and 2 employment units. construction Allocated housing site reclaimed using derelict land grant. New road access Site A - Phase 2 (Former Allocated housing H4 Housing Bridgehall 150 4.9 created and the site is now ready for 388339 388720 More than likely Bridgehall Sidings) site redevelopment after being regraded and levelled. Conversion of vacant hospital buildings Former Barnes Hospital, Full planning H6 Housing Cheadle 128 3.8 to create 42 flats and erection of 18 385216 389011 More than likely Kingsway permission town houses and 68 flats. The Planning Brief for this Major Existing Developed Site in the Green Belt lists housing as an acceptable use. Application not yet H7 Compstall Mills, Andrew Street Housing Compstall 121 1.55 396550 390760 More than likely Application submitted 22/6/09 for mixed decided use development including 121 residential units. Outline application granted 20/04/2010 Hollands Mill site, 61a - 63 Shaw Outline planning H8 Housing Town Centre 112 0.752 for mixed-use development of vacant 389515 389410 More than likely Heath permission site providing up to 112 residential units. Planning permission granted Mar 2010 for a total of 90 units and 2 retail units in Full planning H9 Hopes Carr Phase 1 Housing Town Centre 90 1.2 389950 390240 More than likely line with approved masterplan for wider permission Covent Garden area.

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Former secondary school converted to Council offices, training centre, leisure centre and library. Major repairs needed Application not yet H12 Dialstone Centre, Lisburne Lane Housing Offerton 90 3.5 in medium term. Site has been 391670 388580 More than likely decided marketed for disposal though may need to accommodate some of the existing uses on the redeveloped site. College intends to sell the site following the redevelopment of Town Centre Stockport College Heaton Moor campus. The site is within a Application not yet H16 Housing Heaton Moor 80 2.33 387895 392455 More than likely Campus, Buckingham Rd predominantly residential area and is decided regarded as suitable for housing development. Demolition of existing buildings, mixed employment and residential MAN Diesel & Turbo UK Ltd, Application not yet H25 Housing Hazel Grove 203 6 development comprising B2/B8 move- 390736 387062 More than likely Mirlees Drive decided on units and up to 203 dwellings (183 houses and 20 flats). A nursery and vacant former hospital Former Cherry Tree Hospital, Application not yet H26 Housing Great Moor 75 2.15 site identified as surplus to requirements 391275 388390 More than likely Cherry Tree Ln decided by Stockport PCT. A former 533sq m gross Woolworths DC043585 Grant 553sqm A1 use, (A1 use) with 202 sq m upper floor R1 32 Woodford Road Retail Bramhall 0.03 389,085 384268 18/03/10 Site is Complete 202sqm A3 use offices; ground floor changed use to a complete restaurant (A3 use). DC042719 Grant 636sqm gross 509sqm Change use of ground floor from a R2 91 Lower Hillgate Retail Stockport 0.06 389,797 390204 20/10/09. Site is Complete net A1 use restaurant to office/showroom complete Change use of existing building from B8 2286sqm gross D2 use DC042878 Grant Former Remploy Site, (Warehouse) to D2 (Leisure) and B1 R3 Retail Heaton Chapel and 326sqm B1 office 0.4ha 389,125 393085 20/07/10. Site is Complete Broadstone Road (offices), external alterations and use complete provision of parking facilities Great Portwood DC040039 Grant R7 Town Centre, Unit 3 Peel Centre Retail 936sqm gross A1 use 0.094ha Installation of mezzanine floor 389,945 390839 More than likely Street 21/01/10. Demolition of existing buildings and 1603sqm gross; regeneration of the site to provide a DC044143 Grant R10 Offerton Shopping Precinct Retail Offerton 1239sqm A1, 210sqm 0.652ha 391932 388887 More than likely neighbourhood food store, retail unit, 17/01/11. A3 pharmacy and restaurant 61A-63 Shaw DC041892 Grant R13 Town Centre Hollands Mill Site Retail 500sqm gross 0.84ha A1, A2, A3, A4 or A5 use 389494 389364 More than likely Heath 20/04/10. Demolition of warehouse and erection of 1448sqm gross, DC046007 Grant R14 Micro Direct, Weybrook Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.69ha a food store with associated access car 387,968 393074 Near certain 990sqm net 23/05/11. parking and landscaping Reconfiguration and extension of DC029295 Grant Lancashire Hill, Halfords Unit, Manchester Road, 1773sqm gross, existing retail unit and improvements to R15 Retail 0.896ha 383374 391520 11/06/08. Under Near certain Manchester Road Retail Park Stockport 1418sqm net the car parking layout, internal access construction road and service vehicle access point External alterations to elevations and reconfiguration of existing floorspace to Lancashire Hill, Manchester DC041835 Grant R18 Retail Stockport 3.172ha create eight new retail units (class A1) 389402 391491 More than likely Road Retail Park 17/12/09. and improvements to the layout of the car park and service vehicle access

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Relocation and expansion of J Sainsbury's. Proposes 6551sq m net 14,629sqm gross A1 use floorspace supermarket at DC047669 external area. Including Knightsbridge and closure of existing R19 Town Centre J Sainsbury's Retail Stockport 3.79ha 389841 390826 Application not yet Near certain 6551sqm net sales 2,599sq m net Sainsburys supermarket decided area at Warren Street which would then be likely to be redeveloped/occupied by a comparison goods retailer

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2017 Core Scenario Trafford

Reference Site Type Site Planning Status Floorspace (sqm)/Dwellings Easting Northing Uncertainty by 2017

10049 Stamford Centre Employment/Retail Expired 1660 376902 387995 Near Certain

10133 Altair Site Employment/Retail Outline Planning Permission 8471 377052 387978 Near Certain

10055 Jarvis House Employment/Retail Resolution To Approve 735 3762090 3891500 Near Certain

32133 Partington Wharfside Employment/Retail Under Construction 24047 3722200 3921170 Near Certain

60030 Trafford Town Hall Employment/Retail Resolution To Approve 11019 381009 395844 Near Certain 4 hectares at 2017 Mixed CS E1 Pomona Island Employment/Retail Trafford LDF ‘Core’ Strategy 381980 396865 More than likely Industrial 2.96 hectares at 2017 Mixed CS E3 Trafford Park Core Employment/Retail Trafford LDF ‘Core’ Strategy 378500 396500 More than likely Industrial 2 hectares at 2017 Mixed CS E4 Trafford Centre Rectangle Employment/Retail Trafford LDF ‘Core’ Strategy 376930 396644 More than likely Industrial 25 hectares at 2017 Mixed CS E5 Carrington Employment/Retail Trafford LDF ‘Core’ Strategy 374500 392500 More than likely Industrial 1177 Stamford brook,sinderland brook (part hou4) Housing Reserved matters 90 375851 389924 Near Certain

1193 Stamford brook - phase 2/3,sinderland brook (part) hou4) Housing Reserved matters pp 380 375783 390179 Near Certain

1468 Land at ripon crescent,brompton road Housing Full planning permission 80 377865 395193 Near Certain

CS H1 Pomona island Housing Trafford LDF ‘Core’ Strategy 800 381729 396646 More than likely

CS H2 Trafford wharfside Housing Trafford LDF ‘Core’ Strategy 900 380483 396817 More than likely

CS H3 Lccc Housing No Application as yet 400 380928 395685 More than likely

CS H4 Trafford centre rectangle Housing No Application as yet 1050 376205 397260 More than likely

CS H5 Carrington Housing Trafford LDF ‘Core’ Strategy 1560 373184 392392 More than likely

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Appendix A2 2017 ‘Optimistic’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council)

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2017 Optimistic Scenario Cheshire East

Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status (sqm) 2017

Large greenfield site allocated in Tytherington Business Park Springwood Way, Circa 28,000 sqm B1a Allocated with 2 Employment Local Plan. High quality business 392261 375965 More than likely remaining plots on phases 1 & 2 Macclesfield remaining permission park principally for B1 uses. Allocated, planning Springwood Way / Greenfield allocated site. Tytherington Business Park 25,618 sqm office plus application approved Reasonably 3 Retail Manchester Road, Planning consent principally for 391827 376019 Phase 3 100 bed hotel subject to completion of foreseeable Macclesfield B1 uses with an element of C1. s.106 Greenfield allocated site Reasonably with planning 4 Land off Albert Road Employment Albert Road, Bollington 6,782 sqm industrial units Greenfield allocated sites 392128 377795 foreseeable permission Large brownfield site allocated for Allocated site for flagship B1 development. flagship B1a Stanley Green Industrial Potential circa 60,000 Reasonably 5 61MU Site Employment Currently has temporary consent 386500 383984 development. Currently Estate, Handforth sqm B1a foreseeable for airport car parking until in use as airport car 31/03/2010 parking facility Has permission, but a new planning Stamford Lodge, Circa 22,000 sqm office Cleared redevelopment site in the application has been Reasonably 6 Wilmslow Office Park Employment Altrincham Road, 383038 382475 space Green Belt. approved subject to foreseeable Wilmslow completion of a s.106 agreement Land to rear of Handforth Dean Lower Meadow Road, Potential circa 20,000 Outline consent for B1 Reasonably 7 Employment Greenfield site 386222 383623 Retail Park Handforth sqm office space units foreseeable Epsom Avenue, Two sites in existing industrial Planning consent for Reasonably 8 Handforth Dean Business Park Employment 13,740 sqm office space 386316 383985 Handforth estate B1a offices foreseeable Large town centre redevelopment Estimated net gains: Circa scheme. Revised scheme likely to Decision on outline 25,000 sqm A1 /A2 uses differ from existing application - planning application Macclesfield Town Centre (predominantly A1); 3000 Reasonably 11 Employment Macclesfield masterplanning exercise will 391693 373351 deferred pending Redevelopment sqm A3/A4/A5; 2000 sqm foreseeable review development. Floorspace revisions to the scheme B1a; 8 screen cinema figures have been estimated plus 100 dwellings accordingly Edge of centre redevelopment 13 Knutsford Supermarket Retail Brook Street, Knutsford 1,560 sqm food retail 375500 378483 Permission granted Near certain site 67 dwellings, 75-bed care Macclesfield District General Cumberland Street, Site under construction 14 Housing home, 550 sqm retail and Surplus hospital land 390977 373935 Near certain Hospital Blue Zone Macclesfield - Permission granted 3,600 sqm office block First phases under Whirley Road, 19 Henbury High School Site Housing 123 dwellings Former school site 389080 373747 construction (only 37 Near certain Macclesfield still left to build) Chester Road, Reasonably 20 TA Centre Housing 87 dwellings Former TA Barracks 390625 373598 Permission granted Macclesfield foreseeable Reasonably 21 Gradus Housing Park Lane, Macclesfield 85 dwellings 391975 373174 Permission granted foreseeable Reasonably Permission granted 22 Cheshire Mills Housing Disley 160 dwellings Underused industrial site 398270 384846 foreseeable Reasonably Permission granted 23 Vernon County Infant School Housing Bulkely Road, Poynton 73 dwellings Former school site 392163 383385 foreseeable Site under construction Near certain 24 Ingersley Vale Housing Bollington 66 dwellings Underused industrial site 394231 377362 - Permission granted Gunco Lane, Reasonably 25 Haulage Depot Housing 124 dwellings Former depot 392237 372606 Awaiting Section 106 Macclesfield foreseeable

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Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status (sqm) 2017 Permission granted for erection of part 2, 3, 4 Land near former Old Kings Head Chestergate, storey building to 26 Employment 576sqm A1 Brownfield town centre site 391525 373809 Near certain PH Macclesfield provide a mixture of A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 and B1 uses. Permission granted for the installation of Lyme Green Retail Park, 3179sqm gross, 1683sqm Brownfield out of centre retail park 27 Unit 8 Retail 391509 371165 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield net A1 unit existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted for the installation of Lyme Green Retail Park, Brownfield out of centre retail park 28 Curry's Ltd Retail 560sqm A1 391409 371133 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield unit existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted for the installation of Lyme Green Retail Park, 1352sqm gross, 720 sqm Brownfield out of centre retail park 29 Unit 6 Retail 391448 371120 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield net A1 unit existing retail warehouse unit. Alderley House, Alderley 30 AstraZeneca Employment 6256 gross Erection of research building 384737 375562 Permission granted Near certain Edge Demolition of existing buildings Haig Road / Mobberley 31 IFE Services Ltd Employment 2380 gross / 1180 net and erection of two new office 376150 379507 Permission granted Near certain Road, Knutsford buildings Erection of two new buildings 32 Land at Mottram Way Employment Macclesfield 1903 gross / 654 net (phase 3) comprising six single 392086 374855 Permission granted Near certain storey units Erection of two storey office building (b1) and five industrial Under construction, all London Road South, 33 Rupert House Employment 2522 storage and distribution units 391660 382521 buildings but final office Near certain Poynton (b2/b8) with associated parking suite are complete and turning areas. Demolition of existing buildings and erection of three-storey office 34 22-24 Manchester Road Employment Wilmslow 1005 gross / 732 net 384897 381293 Permission granted Near certain building incorporating car parking and alterations to access Erection of three storey extension for b1 office purposes and Under construction at 35 Wycliffe House Employment Water Lane, Wilmslow 1520 384410 380995 Near certain provision of additional decked car present parking accommodation

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2017 Optimistic Scenario High Peak

Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status (sqm) 2017

Reasonably H1 Granby Road Housing Buxton 104 407280 373200 Outline consent foreseeable

Reasonably H4 Former college site, Harpur Hill Housing Buxton 105 406720 370969 Allocation foreseeable Employment land in Local Plan but with a recently adopted Potential mixed-use scheme with Interim Planning Reasonably H8 Federal Mogul Housing Chapel-en-le-Frith 200 405860 381180 housing Statement that foreseeable would enable mixed-use redevelopment Full planning E1 Morrisons extension Employment/Retail Buxton 1253 Extension to existing supermarket 406575 372959 Near certain consent Reasonably E3 Hogs Yard Employment/Retail Whaley Bridge Mixed-use scheme including non- n/a 401396 382119 Outline consent foreseeable food retail and A3

Full planning E4 Tesco Employment/Retail Whaley Bridge 1249 Extension to existing supermarket 401291 382103 Near certain consent Supermarket – 1921 Mixed-use scheme including A1 Full planning E5 Howard Town Mill Employment/Retail Glossop Mixed A1 non-food, A3 403545 393983 Near certain (food and non-food), A3 and A4. consent and A4 - 2517 Proposed chill store extension, Full planning E6 Staden Lane Employment/Retail Buxton B8 - 1168 pallet storage, office, canteen & 407026 371986 Near certain consent staff facilities Extension to the NE corner of the Full planning E7 Dinting Lodge Employment/Retail Glossop B2 – 12,160 401746 394826 Near certain main industrial building consent Construction of bottling plant and Full planning E8 Waterswallows Road Employment/Retail Buxton B2 – 23,865 407970 375375 Near certain warehousing consent mixed use general industrial, Reasonably E9 Waterswallows Road Employment/Retail Buxton 1.26 408090 375070 Outline consent storage and distribution foreseeable Reasonably E10 Bowden Lane Employment/Retail Chapel-en-le-Frith 1.43 Industrial units 406341 381281 Outline consent foreseeable

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2017 Optimistic Scenario Manchester City

Net Increase in Area / Number of Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing dwellings 2017

Sites at former Withington Housing sites under construction plus additional land H1 Housing 299 381767 394489 Near Certain Hospital, West Didsbury identified as suitable. Total capacity around 299 units

Former City College Site, Moor Housing site under construction. Approx 50 units still to be H2 Housing 50 380633 389778 Complete Road, Brooklands completed

H3 Styal Road, Woodhouse Park Housing Housing site partially complete. 147 units in total. 14 house, 135 apartments 384201 385752 Near Certain

Housing site with expired permission, some works carried H4 Wastdale Road, Baguley Housing out in site preparation. Revised application submitted but 67 381059 387846 Near Certain withdrawn. Suitable for 50-70 units.

Portway/Petheridge Drive, H5 Housing Housing site under construction. 88 units. 88 381721 386363 Near Certain Woodhouse Park Former school site at Darley Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision. Reasonable H6 Housing 86 381148 393899 Avenue, Chorlton Park Could provide 86 units. foreseeable Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision. Reasonable H7 MMU Campus Didsbury East Housing Could provide 188 units. MMU aim to consolidate on a site 188 384841 390563 foreseeable in Hulme H8 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing Planning Permission for 68 units 68 381024 387353 Near Certain

Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision East of Rowlandsway, Sharton Housing as part of a reconfiguration/ redevelopment of areas within Reasonably H9 90 382867 386916 Wythenshawe Town Centre. Could provide 90 units Foreseeable

H10 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing Planning Permission for 68 units 68 381024 387353 Near Certain Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to 45 Existing Airport Operation Area identified in the City of Reasonably E1 Employment/Retail 175 ha 381233 386333 million passengers per annum by Manchester UDP Foreseeable 2030. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to 45 Reasonably E2 Employment/Retail 383989 385022 million passengers per annum by Foreseeable 2030. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to 45 Proposed Airport Operation Area identified as a draft B1- 20,000m2, B8 - 32,000m2 & B2, Reasonably E3 Employment/Retail 380428 384538 million passengers per annum by Strategic Site in the Core Strategy. C1 Foreseeable 2030. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha

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Net Increase in Area / Number of Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing dwellings 2017

Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 20 % Near Certain business and office use including (office application) 80 advanced manufacturing, with E4 Employment/Retail Planning Permission for 15,000sqm of office development 15,000 sqm / 30 ha 380548 385200 % Reasonably complementary uses including, Foreseeable (Airport hotel, leisure, conferencing and City) possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 20 % Near Certain business and office use including (office application) 80 advanced manufacturing, with Manchester Business Park allocated in the City of E5 Employment/Retail B1 - 73,000m2, B2, B8, A1, C1, C3 381779 385654 % Reasonably complementary uses including, Manchester UDP for High Technology Industries Foreseeable (Airport hotel, leisure, conferencing and City) possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 20 % Near Certain business and office use including (office application) 80 advanced manufacturing, with To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core E6 Employment/Retail 383379 385010 % Reasonably complementary uses including, Strategy Foreseeable (Airport hotel, leisure, conferencing and City) possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Health Zone (development of core hospital uses such as patient wards and hospital theatres, and To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core Reasonably E7 Employment/Retail D1, C1, C2 380400 387500 core plus uses such as research Strategy foreseeable and education) at Wythenshawe Hospital Reasonably E8 New District Centre Baguley Employment/Retail Identified in the draft Core Strategy A1, A2, A3, B1, C1,C2,C3 380288 389394 Foreseeable New Town Centre Bus Station at E9 Employment/Retail Submitted Planning application and funding in place 0.540338 ha 382770 387124 Near Certain Wythenshawe Hospital 1.16ha Office Allocation with vacant plots remaining Reasonably E10 Employment/Retail Office allocation within the City of Manchester UDP. 1.16 ha 383632 386040 undeveloped at Simons Foreseeable Way/Shadowmoss Road 3,120sqm of office planning E11 permission on 0.39ha at Cedars, Employment/Retail Under construction for B1 offices. 3,120 sqm / 0.39 ha 382838 387328 Near Certain Wythenshawe 1.46ha Office allocation at Allocated site within the City of Manchester UDP. Partially Reasonably E12 Princess Road/ Barlow Moor Employment/Retail 1.46 ha 383359 392175 developed but has remaining development potential. foreseeable Road 20,169sqm on 3.04ha site at E13 Employment/Retail Planning permission for B1 20,169 sqm / 3.04 ha 383463 392501 Nearly certain Didsbury Point, Princess Road 1.57ha Office allocation at Reasonably E14 Employment/Retail Allocated site within the City of Manchester UDP. 1.57 ha 385642 390559 Parrswood Foreseeable Etrop Court 2 shops, 6206sqm on 0.94ha office B1 (District offices E15 Employment/Retail Planning permission for B1 6206 sqm / 0.94 ha 382713 387187 Nearly Certain for the Local authority) at Rowlandsway, Wythenshawe Private Hospital @ Didsbusry E16 Employment/Retail Planning permission 15,500m2 383580 392651 Near Certain Point

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Net Increase in Area / Number of Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing dwellings 2017

New Bus Garage, Stage Coach E17 Employment/Retail Planning Permission 4385 / 1.75 ha 383405 389049 Near Certain @ Longley Lane Recycling Centre rebuild@ E18 Employment/Retail 7064m2 383662 389062 Near Certain Longley Lane

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2017 Optimistic Scenario Stockport Dwellings/ Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2017 (sqm) Major office development site with a Allocation in number of consents and outline Employment Area, Cheadle Royal Business 11,000sqm B1 E1 Cheadle Royal Employment 2.84Ha permission. Figure includes all land 385340 385945 with some full Near certain Park, Cheadle office still available for development, with permissions to be estimated floorspace implemented Higher Bury Street, 574sqm B1 Full permission in E2 Green Lane Industrial Area Employment 0.6Ha Office development at vacant site 388661 390666 Near certain Stockport office employment area Employment site Travis Perkins, Lime E3 Cheadle District Centre Employment 1011sqm B8 0.51Ha Redevelopment of existing site 385,699 388732 adjacent to district Near certain Grove, Cheadle centre Development of a number of B2 19888sqm Permission E4 Former Thomas Storey Site Employment Tiviot Way, Stockport 6.6Ha and B8 units vacant employment 389000 391000 Near certain B2/B8 granted site Pepper Road, Hazel 500sqm light Full permission in Reasonably E5 Land at Pepper Road Employment 1.01Ha Development of light industrial unit 391020 386720 Grove industrial Employment Area foreseeable

Thales, Ashurst Drive, 3345sqm B1 Full permission in Reasonably E6 Lawnhurst Business Park Employment 0.87Ha Office extension at existing use 387789 388191 Cheadle Heath office employment area foreseeable

12555sqm B1 Permission for a number of units in Full permission in Reasonably E7 Kings Vallley Employment Yew Street, Stockport 2.54Ha 388139 390049 office an allocated site close to M60 Jct.1 employment area foreseeable

32-42 Station Road, 5000sqm B1 Redevelopment of existing Full permission in Reasonably E8 Battersea Road Business Park Employment 0.85Ha 386530 390330 Heaton Mersey office employment unit employment area foreseeable

Battersea Road, Heaton 4479sqm B1 Full permission in Reasonably E9 Battersea Road Business Park Employment 1.24Ha Office development at vacant site 386550 390079 Mersey office employment area foreseeable 25000sqm B1 Vacant allocated site in M60 Gorsey Bank Road, Allocated Reasonably E10 Gorsey Bank Employment office/light 6.9Ha Gateway area. Estimated 387550 389850 Stockport employment site foreseeable industrial floorspace Vacant site subject to SPD at present (2011) 100 dwellings Mixed use site, current uncertainty Final outcome (only limited More than E13 Woodford Housing Former BAE site 25 Ha over the employment land / housing 390,800 382,700 unknown - figures ancillary likely split, assuming 'Option 3'. included here are development) based on updated information from Jim McMahon Conversion and extension to existing mills to provide 383 units and 88 units in new 6 storey block - 471 in total. Phase I complete (180 Under More than H1 Site of New Mill, Houldsworth Street Housing Reddish 291 2.77 389119 393678 flats) - hence no. of units given is construction likely 291. Phase II (123) started but has stalled. Phases III and IV may be scaled back. Application granted Oct 2010 for demolition of vacant foundry and 104, 106 Cross Lane and Park and Under H2 Housing Marple 79 1.93 ancillary buildings and 395025 388354 Near certain Paterson Ltd construction redevelopment of site for 79 dwellings.

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Dwellings/ Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2017 (sqm) Redevelopment to provide 96 Under H3 Goyt Works, Station Road Housing Strines 96 2.5 397410 386519 Near certain houses and 2 employment units. construction Allocated housing site reclaimed using derelict land grant. New road Site A - Phase 2 (Former Bridgehall Allocated housing More than H4 Housing Bridgehall 150 4.9 access created and the site is now 388339 388720 Sidings) site likely ready for redevelopment after being regraded and levelled. Development of landfill site - 163 managed flats comprising one 3/4 storey and four 3 storey blocks of Application not yet Reasonably H5 Land at Midland Rd / Geneva Rd Housing Bramhall 163 5 flats (139 x 2 bed units - 30 AH) & 388982 387378 decided foreseeable one 3 storey block of 24 sheltered flats for elderly persons (15 x 2 bed and 9 x 1 bed). Conversion of vacant hospital buildings to create 42 flats and Full planning More than H6 Former Barnes Hospital, Kingsway Housing Cheadle 128 3.8 385216 389011 erection of 18 town houses and 68 permission likely flats. The Planning Brief for this Major Existing Developed Site in the Green Belt lists housing as an Application not yet More than H7 Compstall Mills, Andrew Street Housing Compstall 121 1.55 acceptable use. Application 396550 390760 decided likely submitted 22/6/09 for mixed use development including 121 residential units. Outline application granted 20/04/2010 for mixed-use Outline planning More than H8 Hollands Mill site, 61a - 63 Shaw Heath Housing Town Centre 112 0.752 development of vacant site 389515 389410 permission likely providing up to 112 residential units. Planning permission granted Mar 2010 for a total of 90 units and 2 Full planning More than H9 Hopes Carr Phase 1 Housing Town Centre 90 1.2 retail units in line with approved 389950 390240 permission likely masterplan for wider Covent Garden area. Former secondary school converted to Council offices, training centre, leisure centre and library. Major repairs needed in Predominantly More than H12 Dialstone Centre, Lisburne Lane Housing Offerton 90 3.5 medium term. Site has been 391670 388580 residential area likely marketed for disposal though may need to accommodate some of the existing uses on the redeveloped site. College intends to sell the site following the redevelopment of Stockport College Heaton Moor Town Centre campus. The site is Predominantly More than H16 Housing Heaton Moor 80 2.33 387895 392455 Campus, Buckingham Rd within a predominantly residential residential area likely area and is regarded as suitable for housing development. Bus depot in use. Adjoining Bus depot and adjacent works warehouse largely vacant. Unlikely Mixed Use Policy Reasonably H24 Housing Heaviley 75 1.87 390270 389315 buildings, Charles St that works/warehouse part of site Guidance Area foreseeable will be development without bus

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Dwellings/ Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2017 (sqm) depot. More likely and desirable if comprehensive development takes place but then has to be regarded as a long term site. Demolition of existing buildings, mixed employment and residential MAN Diesel & Turbo UK Ltd, Mirlees development comprising B2/B8 Application not yet More than H25 Housing Hazel Grove 203 6 390736 387062 Drive move-on units and up to 203 decided likely dwellings (183 houses and 20 flats). A nursery and vacant former Former Cherry Tree Hospital, Cherry Predominantly More than H26 Housing Great Moor 75 2.15 hospital site identified as surplus to 391275 388390 Tree Ln residential area likely requirements by Stockport PCT. The school is due to close in August 2012. It is a Major Existing Developed Site (MEDS) in the Green Belt, attached Reasonably H27 Offerton High School, The Fairway Housing Offerton 75 2.5 to the urban area, and occupies a 392070 389440 MEDS foreseeable prominent position adjoining the Goyt Valley. Redevelopment of the site is to be in accordance with a brief agreed by the Council. A former 533sq m gross Woolworths (A1 use) with 202 sq m DC043585 Grant 553sqm A1 use, R1 32 Woodford Road Retail Bramhall 0.03 upper floor offices; ground floor 389,085 384268 18/03/10 Site is Complete 202sqm A3 use changed use to a restaurant (A3 complete use). 636sqm gross DC042719 Grant Change use of ground floor from a R2 91 Lower Hillgate Retail Stockport 509sqm net A1 0.06 389,797 390204 20/10/09. Site is Complete restaurant to office/showroom use complete Change use of existing building 2286sqm gross from B8 (Warehouse) to D2 DC042878 Grant D2 use and R3 Former Remploy Site, Broadstone Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.4ha (Leisure) and B1 (offices), external 389,125 393085 20/07/10. Site is Complete 326sqm B1 alterations and provision of parking complete office use facilities New mixed use hotel development DC043685 Grant Reasonably R4 Town Centre, Former Greenhale House Retail Piccadilly SK1 3DY 6882sqm 0.179ha inc. Conference facilities, leisure 389575 390089 19/08/10 foreseeable suite and associated parking Mixed use development comprising DC025628 Grant Reasonably R5 Town Centre, Former Greenhale House Retail Piccadilly SK1 3DY 664sqm 0.172ha 155 residential units and 2 389575 390089 25/01/08 foreseeable commercial units DC030870 Case not yet decided – Mixed use development comprising ratified by Reasonably R6 Town Centre, Kwik-Fit Retail Heaton Lane 2540.1sqm 0.27ha 110 bedroom hotel, 2191sq m of 389,055 390304 committee on foreseeable office floorspace and 35 apartments 13/11/08 subject to a s106 agreement. 936sqm gross DC040039 Grant More than R7 Town Centre, Unit 3 Peel Centre Retail Great Portwood Street 0.094ha Installation of mezzanine floor 389,945 390839 A1 use 21/01/10. likely subdivision to create a 713.5sq.m 713.5sqm A1, A1 retail unit and a 185.8sqm A3 DC043495 Grant Reasonably R8 Town Centre, Unit 3 Peel Centre Retail Great Portwood Street 185.8sqm A1 to 0.094ha 389,945 390839 restaurant and cafe unit. Therefore 08/02/10. foreseeable A3 as a subdivision the proposal

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Dwellings/ Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2017 (sqm) introduces A3 use to the site and results in the loss of 185.5sqm A1 use Conversion of the Rock Buildings DC040486 Grant Town Centre, Rock Buildings, Mersey and demolition and new build of Full Planning Reasonably R9 Retail Stockport 2254sqm 0.14ha 389,351 390333 Square previous extensions/outbuildings to Permission foreseeable form an 81 bedroom hotel 04/06/09. Demolition of existing buildings and 1603sqm gross; regeneration of the site to provide a DC044143 Grant More than R10 Offerton Shopping Precinct Retail Offerton 1239sqm A1, 0.652ha 391932 388887 neighbourhood food store, retail 17/01/11. likely 210sqm A3 unit, pharmacy and restaurant Two storey class A1 non-food retail/class D2 leisure development, DC043981 Grant Reasonably R11 M60 Gateway Retail Land at Water Street 5574sqm gross 1.1ha 389,890 391078 with associated parking and 29/07/10. foreseeable ancillary facilities 2860sqm A1 Mixed use (non-food retail and DC044091 Grant Reasonably R12 M60 Gateway Retail Land at Water Street and 3150sqm 1.2ha 389,890 391078 hotel) 06/01/11. foreseeable hotel DC041892 Grant More than R13 Town Centre Hollands Mill Site Retail 61A-63 Shaw Heath 500sqm gross 0.84ha A1, A2, A3, A4 or A5 use 389494 389364 20/04/10. likely Demolition of warehouse and 1448sqm gross, erection of a food store with DC046007 Grant R14 Micro Direct, Weybrook Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.69ha 387,968 393074 Near certain 990sqm net associated access car parking and 23/05/11. landscaping Reconfiguration and extension of existing retail unit and DC029295 Grant Lancashire Hill, Halfords Unit, Manchester Road, 1773sqm gross, R15 Retail 0.896ha improvements to the car parking 383374 391520 11/06/08. Under Near certain Manchester Road Retail Park Stockport 1418sqm net layout, internal access road and construction service vehicle access point Unit 1, Plot 3 Bramhall Moor Industrial Change of use from warehousing to DC044358 Grant Reasonably R16 Retail Hazel Grove 1262sqm 0.4ha 390,813 386828 Park, Pepper Road a gymnastics facility 30/09/10. foreseeable Erection of six/seven story building to form 165 bedroom Hillton DC041071 Grant Reasonably R17 Kings Reach, Yew Street Retail Heaton Mersey 9141.2sqm 0.4ha Garden Inn Hotel with business 388,246 390172 10/08/09. foreseeable conference areas and basement and ground level parking External alterations to elevations and reconfiguration of existing Lancashire Hill, Manchester Road floorspace to create eight new retail DC041835 Grant More than R18 Retail Stockport 3.172ha 389402 391491 Retail Park units (class A1) and improvements 17/12/09. likely to the layout of the car park and service vehicle access Relocation and expansion of J Sainsbury's. Proposes 6551sq m 14,629sqm net A1 use floorspace supermarket gross external at Knightsbridge and closure of DC047669 R19 Town Centre J Sainsbury's Retail Stockport area. Including 3.79ha existing 2,599sq m net Sainsburys 389841 390826 Application not yet Near certain 6551sqm net supermarket at Warren Street decided sales area which would then be likely to be redeveloped/occupied by a comparison goods retailer

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2017 Optimistic Scenario Trafford Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type (sqm)/ Site Status Easting Northing 2017 Dwellings

10049 Stamford Centre Employment/Retail 1660 Expired 376902 387995 Near Certain Reasonably 12049 Altrincham Saw Mills 628 Expired Employment/Retail 3767750 3894890 Foreseeable Reasonably 10130 7-9 & 11 Springfield Road 829 Minded to Grant 376897 388189 Employment/Retail Foreseeable

10133 Altair Site Employment/Retail 8471 Outline Planning Permission 377052 387978 Near Certain Reasonably 10050 Land at 15-41Railway Street 5312 Full Planning Permission Employment/Retail 3767440 3876390 Foreseeable Reasonably 10052 JCB Ltd 2273 Full Planning Permission Employment/Retail 3755400 3889680 Foreseeable

10055 Jarvis House Employment/Retail 735 Resolution To Approve 3762090 3891500 Near Certain

32133 Partington Wharfside Employment/Retail 24047 Under Construction 3722200 3921170 Near Certain Reasonably 40011 Progress House 1350 Full Planning Permission Employment/Retail 377067 386704 Foreseeable Petrol station and adjacent land at 499 Chester Road, Old Reasonably 60028 806 Resolution To Approve Trafford Employment/Retail 3821230 3963610 Foreseeable Reasonably 70132 Manchester Utd Football Club 3976 Resolution To Approve Employment/Retail 3806150 3964330 Foreseeable Reasonably 62015/00 912 Expired Employment/Retail 382400 396300 Foreseeable Reasonably 60021 39 Talbot Road 3712 Expired 381496 396056 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 60012 Former Trafford Press 579 Full Planning Permission 382250 396553 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 60027 Land at Northumberland Road 2000 Full Planning Permission 382376 396496 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 62020 Jesse Oldfield Bakeries 1942 Resolution To Approve Employment/Retail 381465 395533 Foreseeable

60030 Trafford Town Hall Employment/Retail 11019 Resolution To Approve 381009 395844 Near Certain Reasonably 72094 Former Kratos Site 27870 Outline Planning Permission 377836 396412 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 72068 Trafford Park Bakery 3065 Full Planning Permission Employment/Retail 3781180 3973200 Foreseeable Reasonably 72079 Electric Park 10921 Full Planning Permission 379458 395949 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 72103 Trinity Business Park 5537 Full Planning Permission 377568 397804 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 70025 Victoria Warehouse 15369 Lost To Other Uses 381097 396446 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 70026 Land at Warren Bruce Road 2971 Expired 379974 396939 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 70129 Land bound by Ashburton Road West 7644 Resolution To Approve 377119 397399 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 70131 Land at Mosley Road 16130 Available 379116 395800 Employment/Retail Foreseeable Reasonably 72126 Sca hygiene products 19000 Under Construction Employment/Retail 3786070 3978240 Foreseeable Reasonably 72127 Former sterling technology site 560 Resolution To Approve Employment/Retail 379793 396157 Foreseeable

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Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type (sqm)/ Site Status Easting Northing 2017 Dwellings Pomona island 381980 396865 More than likely CS E1 Employment/Retail Trafford park core 378500 396500 More than likely CS E3 Employment/Retail Trafford centre rectangle 376930 396644 More than likely CS E4 Employment/Retail Carrington 374500 392500 More than likely CS E5 Employment/Retail 1177 Stamford brook,sinderland brook (part hou4) Housing 90 Reserved matters 375851 389924 Near Certain

1193 Stamford brook - phase 2/3,sinderland brook (part) hou4) Housing 380 Reserved matters pp 375783 390179 Near Certain Reasonably 1427 Land At Northumberland Road (Hou7) 193 Minded to grant 382378 396509 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1429 Empress Mill,Empress Street 100 Full pp 382241 396616 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1455 Trafford Press Site,Chester Road 116 Full planning permission 382250 396550 Housing Foreseeable

1468 Land At Ripon Crescent,Brompton Road Housing 80 Full planning permission 377865 395193 Near Certain Reasonably 1469 Petrol Station And Adj Land At,499 Chester Road 95 Full planning permission 382127 396362 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1561 Orton Brook School Site,Oak Road 75 371275 390594 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1542 L & M Site, Norman Road 243 UDP allocation 376060 388786 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1547 Land At Cherry Lane 130 376287 390828 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1565 Tamworth Court And Chorlton Rd (Land Fronting) 112 383202 396047 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1572 Manor Avenue 100 376304 392097 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1599 Woodfield House, Woodfield Road 174 UDP allocation 376353 388948 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1610 Land Adjacent To Manchester Ship Canal 550 Outline planning permission 371103 391625 Housing Foreseeable Reasonably 1845 Land off broadway 80 Minded to Grant 375577 395905 Housing Foreseeable CS H1 Pomona Island Housing 800 381729 396646 More than likely

CS H2 Trafford Wharfside Housing 900 380483 396817 More than likely

CS H3 LCCC Housing 400 None 380928 395685 More than likely CS H4 Trafford Centre Rectangle Housing 1050 None 376205 397260 More than likely

CS H5 Carrington Housing 1560 373184 392392 More than likely

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Appendix A3 2017 ‘Pessimistic’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council)

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2017 Pessimistic Scenario Cheshire East

Uncertainty Dwellings/Floorsp Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status by ace (sqm) 2017 Edge of centre redevelopment 1,560 sqm food 13 Knutsford Supermarket Retail Brook Street, Knutsford 375500 378483 Permission granted Near certain site retail 67 dwellings, 75- bed care home, Macclesfield District General Cumberland Street, Site under construction - Permission 14 Housing Surplus hospital land 550 sqm retail and 390977 373935 Near certain Hospital Blue Zone Macclesfield granted 3,600 sqm office block First phases under construction (only Whirley Road, 19 Henbury High School Site Housing Former school site 123 dwellings 389080 373747 37 still left to build) Near certain Macclesfield Site under construction - Permission 24 Ingersley Vale Housing Bollington Underused industrial site 66 dwellings 394231 377362 granted Near certain

Permission granted for erection of part 2, 3, 4 storey building to provide Land near former Old Kings Chestergate, 26 Employment Brownfield town centre site 576sqm A1 391525 373809 a mixture of A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 and Near certain Head PH Macclesfield B1 uses.

Permission granted for the installation Lyme Green Retail Park, Brownfield out of centre retail park 3179sqm gross, 27 Unit 8 Retail 391509 371165 of mezzanine floor into existing retail Near certain Macclesfield unit 1683sqm net A1 warehouse unit. Permission granted for the installation Lyme Green Retail Park, Brownfield out of centre retail park 28 Curry's Ltd Retail 560sqm A1 391409 371133 of mezzanine floor into existing retail Near certain Macclesfield unit warehouse unit. Permission granted for the installation Lyme Green Retail Park, Brownfield out of centre retail park 1352sqm gross, 29 Unit 6 Retail 391448 371120 of mezzanine floor into existing retail Near certain Macclesfield unit 720 sqm net A1 warehouse unit. Alderley House, Alderley 30 AstraZeneca Employment Erection of research building 6256 gross 384737 375562 Permission granted Near certain Edge Demolition of existing buildings Haig Road / Mobberley 2380 gross / 1180 31 IFE Services Ltd Employment and erection of two new office 376150 379507 Permission granted Near certain Road, Knutsford net buildings Erection of two new buildings 1903 gross / 654 32 Land at Mottram Way Employment Macclesfield (phase 3) comprising six single 392086 374855 Permission granted Near certain net storey units Erection of two storey office building (b1) and five industrial London Road South, Under construction, all buildings but 33 Rupert House Employment storage and distribution units 2522 391660 382521 Near certain Poynton final office suite are complete (b2/b8) with associated parking and turning areas. Demolition of existing buildings and erection of three-storey office 1005 gross / 732 34 22-24 Manchester Road Employment Wilmslow 384897 381293 Permission granted Near certain building incorporating car parking net and alterations to access Erection of three storey extension for b1 office purposes and 35 Wycliffe House Employment Water Lane, Wilmslow 1520 384410 380995 Under construction at present Near certain provision of additional decked car parking accommodation

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2017 Pessimistic Scenario High Peak

Uncertainty Dwellings/Floorsp Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status by ace (sqm) 2017

Employment/Reta E1 Morrisons extension Buxton Extension to existing supermarket 1253 406575 372959 Near certain Near certain il

Employment/Reta E4 Tesco Whaley Bridge Extension to existing supermarket 1249 401291 382103 Near certain Near certain il Supermarket – Employment/Reta Mixed-use scheme including A1 1921 Mixed A1 E5 Howard Town Mill Glossop 403545 393983 Near certain Near certain il (food and non-food), A3 and A4. non-food, A3 and A4 - 2517 Proposed chill store extension, Employment/Reta E6 Staden Lane Buxton pallet storage, office, canteen & B8 - 1168 407026 371986 Near certain Near certain il staff facilities Employment/Reta Extension to the NE corner of the E7 Dinting Lodge Glossop B2 – 12,160 401746 394826 Near certain Near certain il main industrial building Employment/Reta Construction of bottling plant and E8 Waterswallows Road Buxton B2 – 23,865 407970 375375 Near certain Near certain il warehousing

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2017 Pessimistic Scenario Manchester City

Net Increase in Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Area / Number of Easting Northing 2017 dwellings

Housing sites under construction plus additional land identified as H1 Sites at former Withington Hospital, West Didsbury Housing 299 381767 394489 Near Certain suitable. Total capacity around 299 units

Housing site under construction. Approx 50 units still to be H2 Former City College Site, Moor Road, Brooklands Housing 50 380633 389778 Complete completed

14 house, 135 H3 Styal Road, Woodhouse Park Housing Housing site partially complete. 147 units in total. 384201 385752 Near Certain apartments

Housing site with expired permission, some works carried out in H4 Wastdale Road, Baguley Housing site preparation. Revised application submitted but withdrawn. 67 381059 387846 Near Certain Suitable for 50-70 units.

H5 Portway/Petheridge Drive, Woodhouse Park Housing Housing site under construction. 88 units. 88 381721 386363 Near Certain

H10 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing Planning Permission for 68 units 68 381024 387353 Near Certain 20 % Near Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly Certain (office proposed for B1 business and office use including application) 80 E4 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail Planning Permission for 15,000sqm of office development 15,000 sqm / 30 ha 380548 385200 % Reasonably including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly Foreseeable residential) at Manchester Business Park (Airport City) 20 % Near Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly Certain (office proposed for B1 business and office use including Manchester Business Park allocated in the City of Manchester B1 - 73,000m2, B2, application) 80 E5 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail 381779 385654 UDP for High Technology Industries B8, A1, C1, C3 % Reasonably including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly Foreseeable residential) at Manchester Business Park (Airport City) 20 % Near Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly Certain (office proposed for B1 business and office use including application) 80 E6 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core Strategy 383379 385010 % Reasonably including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly Foreseeable residential) at Manchester Business Park (Airport City) A1, A2, A3, B1, Reasonably E8 New District Centre Baguley Employment/Retail Identified in the draft Core Strategy 380288 389394 C1,C2,C3 Foreseeable New Town Centre Bus Station at Wythenshawe E9 Employment/Retail Submitted Planning application and funding in place 0.540338 ha 382770 387124 Near Certain Hospital 3,120sqm of office planning permission on 0.39ha E11 Employment/Retail Under construction for B1 offices. 3,120 sqm / 0.39 ha 382838 387328 Near Certain at Cedars, Wythenshawe 20,169sqm on 3.04ha site at Didsbury Point, 20,169 sqm / 3.04 E13 Employment/Retail Planning permission for B1 383463 392501 Nearly certain Princess Road ha Etrop Court 2 shops, 6206sqm on 0.94ha office B1 E15 (District offices for the Local authority) at Employment/Retail Planning permission for B1 6206 sqm / 0.94 ha 382713 387187 Nearly Certain Rowlandsway, Wythenshawe

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Net Increase in Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Area / Number of Easting Northing 2017 dwellings

E16 Private Hospital @ Didsbusry Point Employment/Retail Planning permission 15,500m2 383580 392651 Near Certain

E17 New Bus Garage, Stage Coach @ Longley Lane Employment/Retail Planning Permission 4385 / 1.75 ha 383405 389049 Near Certain

E18 Recycling Centre rebuild@ Longley Lane Employment/Retail 7064m2 383662 389062 Near Certain

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2017 Pessimistic Scenario Stockport Dwellings/ Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2017 (sqm) Major office development site with a Allocation in number of consents and outline Employment Area, Cheadle Royal Business 11,000sqm B1 E1 Cheadle Royal Employment 2.84Ha permission. Figure includes all land 385340 385945 with some full Near certain Park, Cheadle office still available for development, with permissions to be estimated floorspace implemented Higher Bury Street, 574sqm B1 Full permission in E2 Green Lane Industrial Area Employment 0.6Ha Office development at vacant site 388661 390666 Near certain Stockport office employment area Employment site Travis Perkins, Lime E3 Cheadle District Centre Employment 1011sqm B8 0.51Ha Redevelopment of existing site 385,699 388732 adjacent to district Near certain Grove, Cheadle centre Development of a number of B2 19888sqm Permission E4 Former Thomas Storey Site Employment Tiviot Way, Stockport 6.6Ha and B8 units vacant employment 389000 391000 Near certain B2/B8 granted site Application granted Oct 2010 for demolition of vacant foundry and 104, 106 Cross Lane and Park and Under H2 Housing Marple 79 1.93 ancillary buildings and 395025 388354 Near certain Paterson Ltd construction redevelopment of site for 79 dwellings. Redevelopment to provide 96 Under H3 Goyt Works, Station Road Housing Strines 96 2.5 397410 386519 Near certain houses and 2 employment units. construction A former 533sq m gross Woolworths (A1 use) with 202 sq m DC043585 Grant 553sqm A1 use, R1 32 Woodford Road Retail Bramhall 0.03 upper floor offices; ground floor 389,085 384268 18/03/10 Site is Complete 202sqm A3 use changed use to a restaurant (A3 complete use). 636sqm gross DC042719 Grant Change use of ground floor from a R2 91 Lower Hillgate Retail Stockport 509sqm net A1 0.06 389,797 390204 20/10/09. Site is Complete restaurant to office/showroom use complete Change use of existing building 2286sqm gross from B8 (Warehouse) to D2 DC042878 Grant D2 use and R3 Former Remploy Site, Broadstone Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.4ha (Leisure) and B1 (offices), external 389,125 393085 20/07/10. Site is Complete 326sqm B1 alterations and provision of parking complete office use facilities Demolition of warehouse and 1448sqm gross, erection of a food store with DC046007 Grant R14 Micro Direct, Weybrook Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.69ha 387,968 393074 Near certain 990sqm net associated access car parking and 23/05/11. landscaping Reconfiguration and extension of existing retail unit and DC029295 Grant Lancashire Hill, Halfords Unit, Manchester Road, 1773sqm gross, R15 Retail 0.896ha improvements to the car parking 383374 391520 11/06/08. Under Near certain Manchester Road Retail Park Stockport 1418sqm net layout, internal access road and construction service vehicle access point External alterations to elevations and reconfiguration of existing Lancashire Hill, Manchester Road floorspace to create eight new retail DC041835 Grant More than R18 Retail Stockport 3.172ha 389402 391491 Retail Park units (class A1) and improvements 17/12/09. likely to the layout of the car park and service vehicle access 14,629sqm Relocation and expansion of J DC047669 gross external Sainsbury's. Proposes 6551sq m R19 Town Centre J Sainsbury's Retail Stockport 3.79ha 389841 390826 Application not yet Near certain area. Including net A1 use floorspace supermarket decided 6551sqm net at Knightsbridge and closure of

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Dwellings/ Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2017 (sqm) sales area existing 2,599sq m net Sainsburys supermarket at Warren Street which would then be likely to be redeveloped/occupied by a comparison goods retailer

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2017 Pessimistic Scenario Trafford

Floorspace/ Reference Site Type Site Status Easting Northing Uncertainty by 2017 Dwellings (sqm)

10049 Stamford Centre Employment/Retail Expired 1660 376902 387995 Near Certain

10133 Altair Site Employment/Retail Outline Planning Permission 8471 377052 387978 Near Certain

10055 Jarvis House Employment/Retail Resolution To Approve 735 3762090 3891500 Near Certain

32133 Partington Wharfside Employment/Retail Under Construction 24047 3722200 3921170 Near Certain

60030 Trafford Town Hall Employment/Retail Resolution To Approve 11019 381009 395844 Near Certain

1177 Stamford brook,sinderland brook (part hou4) Housing Reserved matters 90 375851 389924 Near Certain

1193 Stamford brook - phase 2/3,sinderland brook (part) hou4) Housing Reserved matters pp 380 375783 390179 Near Certain

1468 Land At Ripon Crescent,Brompton Road Housing Full planning permission 80 377865 395193 Near Certain

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Appendix A4 2032 ‘Core’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council)

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2032 Core Scenario Cheshire East Council

Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status (sqm) 2032

Tytherington Business Large greenfield site allocated in Springwood Way, Circa 28,000 sqm B1a Allocated with 2 Park remaining plots on Employment Local Plan. High quality business 392261 375965 permission Near certain Macclesfield remaining phases 1 & 2 park principally for B1 uses. Springwood Way / Greenfield allocated site. Planning Tytherington Business 25,618 sqm office plus Allocated with 3 Retail Manchester Road, consent principally for B1 uses with 391827 376019 permission Near certain Park Phase 3 100 bed hotel Macclesfield an element of C1. Greenfield allocated 6,782 sqm industrial site with planning 4 Land off Albert Road Employment Albert Road, Bollington Greenfield allocated sites 392128 377795 Near certain units permission

Stamford Lodge, Planning consent for Circa 22,000 sqm office Cleared redevelopment site in the B1a office park on 3.6 6 Wilmslow Office Park Employment Altrincham Road, 383038 382475 Near certain space Green Belt. ha of the site Wilmslow Land to rear of Handforth Lower Meadow Road, Potential circa 20,000 Outline consent for B1 7 Employment Greenfield site 386222 383623 units Near certain Dean Retail Park Handforth sqm office space

Handforth Dean Business Epsom Avenue, Two sites in existing industrial Planning consent for 8 Employment 13,740 sqm office space 386316 383985 Near certain Park Handforth estate B1a offices

Allocated for B1/B2/B8 but Allocated site with constrained by access. New Parkgate Industrial Estate Haig Road / Mobberley Potential circa 30,000 outline consent for 9 Employment access from Mobberley Road now 376677 379763 industrial estate Near certain extension Road, Knutsford sqm industrial and office in place but requires a tunnel under extension railway to connect the site Additional allocation for B1/B2/B8 Additional expansion land Allocated site with Haig Road / Mobberley 32,762 sqm industrial to help overcome viability issues submitted application 10 at Parkgate Industrial Employment 376462 379945 More than likely Road, Knutsford and office associated with cost of new access (decision pending) Estate to Parkgate extension Estimated net gains: Large town centre redevelopment Circa 25,000 sqm A1 scheme. Revised scheme likely to Decision on outline /A2 uses (predominantly Macclesfield Town Centre differ from existing application - planning application 11 Employment Macclesfield A1); 3000 sqm 391693 373351 deferred pending More than likely Redevelopment masterplanning exercise will review A3/A4/A5; 2000 sqm revisions to the scheme development. Floorspace figures B1a; 8 screen cinema have been estimated accordingly plus 100 dwellings Permission granted 13 Knutsford Supermarket Retail Brook Street, Knutsford 1,560 sqm food retail Edge of centre redevelopment site 375500 378483 Near certain 67 dwellings, 75-bed Site under construction Macclesfield District Cumberland Street, care home, 550 sqm - Permission granted 14 General Hospital Blue Housing Surplus hospital land 390977 373935 Near certain Macclesfield retail and 3,600 sqm Zone office block Whirley Road, First phases under 19 Henbury High School Site Housing 123 dwellings Former school site 389080 373747 construction (only 37 Near certain Macclesfield still left to build0 Permission granted 22 Cheshire Mills Housing Disley 160 dwellings Underused industrial site 398270 384846 Near certain Vernon County Infant Permission granted 23 Housing Bulkely Road, Poynton 73 dwellings Former school site 392163 383385 Near certain School Site under construction 24 Ingersley Vale Housing Bollington 66 dwellings Underused industrial site 394231 377362 - Permission granted Near certain Permission granted for Land near former Old erection of part 2, 3, 4 26 Employment Chestergate, Macclesfield 576sqm A1 Brownfield town centre site 391525 373809 Near certain Kings Head PH storey building to provide a mixture of A1, Page 38 of 133 SEMMMS Uncertainty Log v6.doc

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Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status (sqm) 2032

A2, A3, A4, A5 and B1 uses. Permission granted for Lyme Green Retail Park, 3179sqm gross, Brownfield out of centre retail park the installation of 27 Unit 8 Retail 391509 371165 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield 1683sqm net A1 unit existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted for Lyme Green Retail Park, Brownfield out of centre retail park the installation of 28 Curry's Ltd Retail 560sqm A1 391409 371133 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield unit existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted for Lyme Green Retail Park, 1352sqm gross, 720 Brownfield out of centre retail park the installation of 29 Unit 6 Retail 391448 371120 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield sqm net A1 unit existing retail warehouse unit. Alderley House, Alderley Permission granted 30 AstraZeneca Employment 6256 gross Erection of research building 384737 375562 Near certain Edge Haig Road / Mobberley Demolition of existing buildings and Permission granted 31 IFE Services Ltd Employment 2380 gross / 1180 net 376150 379507 Near certain Road, Knutsford erection of two new office buildings Erection of two new buildings Permission granted 32 Land at Mottram Way Employment Macclesfield 1903 gross / 654 net (phase 3) comprising six single 392086 374855 Near certain storey units Erection of two storey office Under construction, all building (b1) and five industrial buildings but final office London Road South, 33 Rupert House Employment 2522 storage and distribution units 391660 382521 suite are complete Near certain Poynton (b2/b8) with associated parking and turning areas. Demolition of existing buildings and Permission granted erection of three-storey office 34 22-24 Manchester Road Employment Wilmslow 1005 gross / 732 net 384897 381293 Near certain building incorporating car parking and alterations to access Erection of three storey extension Under construction at for b1 office purposes and provision present 35 Wycliffe House Employment Water Lane, Wilmslow 1520 384410 380995 Near certain of additional decked car parking accommodation

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2032 Core Scenario High Peak

Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status (sqm) 2032

Outline consent H1 Granby Road Housing Buxton 104 407280 373200 Near certain

Site requires development of Extant outline H2 Dale Lane Housing Buxton 221 Fairfield Link Road which is likely to 407290 373960 consent Near certain

delay the scheme Allocation H4 Former college site, Harpur Hill Housing Buxton 105 406720 370969 Near certain

SHLAA site. H6 Charlestown Works Housing Glossop 100 SHLAA site on industrial land 403360 393010 Application currently Near certain under consideration SHLAA site, recent pre-application H7 Forge Works Housing Chinley 200 SHLAA site on industrial land 404385 382136 Near certain discussions and public consultation Employment land in Local Plan but with a recently adopted Potential mixed-use scheme with H8 Federal Mogul Housing Chapel-en-le-Frith 200 405860 381180 Interim Planning Near certain housing Statement that would enable mixed-use redevelopment Employm E1 Morrisons extension Buxton 1253 Extension to existing supermarket 406575 372959 Full planning consent Near certain ent/Retail

Employm Full planning consent E4 Tesco Whaley Bridge 1249 Extension to existing supermarket 401291 382103 Near certain ent/Retail Supermarket – 1921 Employm Mixed-use scheme including A1 Full planning consent E5 Howard Town Mill Glossop Mixed A1 non-food, A3 403545 393983 Near certain ent/Retail (food and non-food), A3 and A4. and A4 - 2517 Proposed chill store extension, Employm Full planning consent E6 Staden Lane Buxton B8 - 1168 pallet storage, office, canteen & 407026 371986 Near certain ent/Retail staff facilities Employm Extension to the NE corner of the Full planning consent E7 Dinting Lodge Glossop B2 – 12,160 401746 394826 Near certain ent/Retail main industrial building Employm Construction of bottling plant and Full planning consent E8 Waterswallows Road Buxton B2 – 23,865 407970 375375 Near certain ent/Retail warehousing Employm mixed use general industrial, Outline consent E9 Waterswallows Road Buxton 3717 408090 375070 Near certain ent/Retail storage and distribution Employm Outline consent E10 Bowden Lane Chapel-en-le-Frith 5700 Industrial units 406341 381281 Near certain ent/Retail

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2032 Core Scenario Manchester City

Net Increase in Area / Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing Number of dwellings 2032

Sites at former Withington Hospital, Housing sites under construction plus additional land identified as suitable. H1 Housing 299 381767 394489 Near Certain West Didsbury Total capacity around 299 units

Former City College Site, Moor H2 Housing 50 Housing site under construction. Approx 50 units still to be completed 380633 389778 Near Certain Road, Brooklands

H3 Styal Road, Woodhouse Park Housing 14 house, 135 apartments Housing site partially complete. 147 units in total. 384201 385752 Near Certain

Housing site with expired permission, some works carried out in site H4 Wastdale Road, Baguley Housing 67 preparation. Revised application submitted but withdrawn. Suitable for 50- 381059 387846 Near Certain 70 units.

Portway/Petheridge Drive, H5 Housing 88 Housing site under construction. 88 units. 381721 386363 Near Certain Woodhouse Park Former school site at Darley Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision. Could provide H6 Housing 86 381148 393899 Near Certain Avenue, Chorlton Park 86 units. Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision. Could provide H7 MMU Campus Didsbury East Housing 188 384841 390563 Near Certain 188 units. MMU aim to consolidate on a site in Hulme

H8 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 Planning Permission for 68 units 381024 387353 Near Certain Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision as part of a East of Rowlandsway, Sharton Housing reconfiguration/ redevelopment of areas within Wythenshawe Town Centre. H9 90 382867 386916 Near Certain Could provide 90 units

H10 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 Planning Permission for 68 units 381024 387353 Near Certain Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to 45 million E1 Employment/Retail 175 ha Existing Airport Operation Area identified in the City of Manchester UDP 381233 386333 Near Certain passengers per annum by 2030. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to 45 million E2 Employment/Retail 383989 385022 Near Certain passengers per annum by 2030. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to 45 million B1- 20,000m2, B8 - Proposed Airport Operation Area identified as a draft Strategic Site in the E3 Employment/Retail 380428 384538 Near Certain passengers per annum by 2030. 32,000m2 & B2, C1 Core Strategy. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Airport City approximately 30ha E4 Employment/Retail 15,000 sqm / 30 ha Planning Permission for 15,000sqm of office development 380548 385200 100% Near Certain (predominantly proposed for B1

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Net Increase in Area / Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing Number of dwellings 2032

business and office use including advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 business and office use including advanced manufacturing, with B1 - 73,000m2, B2, B8, Manchester Business Park allocated in the City of Manchester UDP for E5 Employment/Retail 381779 385654 100% Near Certain complementary uses including, A1, C1, C3 High Technology Industries hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 business and office use including advanced manufacturing, with E6 Employment/Retail To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core Strategy 383379 385010 100% Near Certain complementary uses including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Health Zone (development of core hospital uses such as patient wards and hospital theatres, and core plus E7 Employment/Retail D1, C1, C2 To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core Strategy 380400 387500 Near Certain uses such as research and education) at Wythenshawe Hospital E80 New District Centre Baguley Employment/Retail A1, A2, A3, B1, C1,C2,C3 Identified in the draft Core Strategy 380288 389394 Near Certain

New Town Centre Bus Station at E9 Employment/Retail 0.540338 ha Submitted Planning application and funding in place 382770 387124 Near Certain Wythenshawe Hospital 3,120sqm of office planning E11 permission on 0.39ha at Cedars, Employment/Retail 3,120 sqm / 0.39 ha Under construction for B1 offices. 382838 387328 Near Certain Wythenshawe 20,169sqm on 3.04ha site at E13 Employment/Retail 20,169 sqm / 3.04 ha Planning permission for B1 383463 392501 Near certain Didsbury Point, Princess Road Etrop Court 2 shops, 6206sqm on 0.94ha office B1 (District offices for E15 Employment/Retail 6206 sqm / 0.94 ha Planning permission for B1 382713 387187 Near Certain the Local authority) at Rowlandsway, Wythenshawe E16 Private Hospital @ Didsbusry Point Employment/Retail 15,500m2 Planning permission 383580 392651 Near Certain

New Bus Garage, Stage Coach @ E17 Employment/Retail 4385 / 1.75 ha Planning Permission 383405 389049 Near Certain Longley Lane Recycling Centre rebuild@ Longley E18 Employment/Retail 7064m2 383662 389062 Near Certain Lane

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2032 Core Scenario Stockport

Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Major office development site with a Allocation in number of consents and outline Employment Area, Cheadle Royal Business E1 Cheadle Royal Employment 11,000sqm B1 office 2.84Ha permission. Figure includes all land 385340 385945 with some full Near certain Park, Cheadle still available for development, with permissions to be estimated floorspace implemented Higher Bury Street, Full permission in E2 Green Lane Industrial Area Employment 574sqm B1 office 0.6Ha 388661 390666 Near certain Stockport Office development at vacant site employment area Employment site Travis Perkins, Lime E3 Cheadle District Centre Employment 1011sqm B8 0.51Ha 385,699 388732 adjacent to district Near certain Grove, Cheadle Redevelopment of existing site centre Development of a number of B2 Former Thomas Storey Permission E4 Employment Tiviot Way, Stockport 19888sqm B2/B8 6.6Ha and B8 units vacant employment 389000 391000 Near certain Site granted site Pepper Road, Hazel Full permission in More than E5 Land at Pepper Road Employment 500sqm light industrial 1.01Ha Development of light industrial unit 391020 386720 Grove Employment Area likely

Thales, Ashurst Drive, Full permission in More than E6 Lawnhurst Business Park Employment 3345sqm B1 office 0.87Ha Office extension at existing use 387789 388191 Cheadle Heath employment area likely

Permission for a number of units in Full permission in E7 Kings Vallley Employment Yew Street, Stockport 12555sqm B1 office 2.54Ha 388139 390049 Near certain an allocated site close to M60 Jct.1 employment area

Battersea Road Business Battersea Road, Heaton Full permission in E9 Employment 4479sqm B1 office 1.24Ha Office development at vacant site 386550 390079 Near certain Park Mersey employment area Sites to be allocated through Major focus for future office LDF process, development in borough over a however such number of sites in the town centre. More than E11 Stockport Town Centre Employment Town Centre Area 65000sqm B1 office 389590 390250 development in Estimated floorspace. likely the town centre is (Easting/Northing given is for one likely to be particular site in the town centre). acceptable in policy. A number of different sites in this large employment area have potential for (re)development. This Variety of vacant is an estimated total area and sites and More than E12 Bredbury Parkway Employment 22500sqm B2/B8 7Ha 392575 392512 floorspace for what will primarily be permissions within likely B2 and B8 uses. (Easting/Northing and permissions given is for one particular site in the employment area). Conversion and extension to existing mills to provide 383 units and 88 units in new 6 storey block - Site of New Mill, 471 in total. Phase I complete (180 Under H1 Housing Reddish 291 2.77 389119 393678 Near certain Houldsworth Street flats) - hence no. of units given is construction 291. Phase II (123) started but has stalled. Phases III and IV may be scaled back. Application granted Oct 2010 for 104, 106 Cross Lane and demolition of vacant foundry and Under H2 Housing Marple 79 1.93 395025 388354 Near certain Park and Paterson Ltd ancillary buildings and construction redevelopment of site for 79

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 dwellings.

Under H3 Goyt Works, Station Road Housing Strines 96 2.5 Redevelopment to provide 96 397410 386519 Near certain houses and 2 employment units. construction Allocated housing site reclaimed using derelict land grant. New road Site A - Phase 2 (Former Allocated housing H4 Housing Bridgehall 150 4.9 access created and the site is now 388339 388720 Near certain Bridgehall Sidings) site ready for redevelopment after being regraded and levelled. Development of landfill site - 163 managed flats comprising one 3/4 storey and four 3 storey blocks of Land at Midland Rd / Application not yet H5 Housing Bramhall 163 5 flats (139 x 2 bed units - 30 AH) & 388982 387378 Near certain Geneva Rd decided one 3 storey block of 24 sheltered flats for elderly persons (15 x 2 bed and 9 x 1 bed). Conversion of vacant hospital Former Barnes Hospital, buildings to create 42 flats and Full planning H6 Housing Cheadle 128 3.8 385216 389011 Near certain Kingsway erection of 18 town houses and 68 permission flats. The Planning Brief for this Major Existing Developed Site in the Green Belt lists housing as an Compstall Mills, Andrew Application not yet H7 Housing Compstall 121 1.55 acceptable use. Application 396550 390760 Near certain Street decided submitted 22/6/09 for mixed use development including 121 residential units. Outline application granted 20/04/2010 for mixed-use Hollands Mill site, 61a - 63 Outline planning H8 Housing Town Centre 112 0.752 development of vacant site 389515 389410 Near certain Shaw Heath permission providing up to 112 residential units. Planning permission granted Mar 2010 for a total of 90 units and 2 Full planning H9 Hopes Carr Phase 1 Housing Town Centre 90 1.2 retail units in line with approved 389950 390240 Near certain permission masterplan for wider Covent Garden area. Former secondary school converted to Council offices, training centre, leisure centre and library. Major repairs needed in Dialstone Centre, Lisburne Predominantly H12 Housing Offerton 90 3.5 medium term. Site has been 391670 388580 Near certain Lane residential area marketed for disposal though may need to accommodate some of the existing uses on the redeveloped site. Masterplan for wider Covent Garden area approved Dec 09 with indicative total of 270 additional Hopes Carr Phase 2 / More than H13 Housing Town Centre 120 2.64 units including development of this 389900 390170 Town Centre area Covent Garden sites likely car park / vacant site and refurbishment of existing flats. See also site 247 in particular.

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Site put forward during SHLAA Call for Sites exercise. Used scheme Oakwood Mills, Oakwood submitted during UDP review to Predominantly More than H15 Housing Romiley 150 4.3 394460 390525 Road estimate capacity. 90 houses and residential area likely 60 flats in 4 three storey blocks (5 flats on each floor). College intends to sell the site following the redevelopment of Stockport College Heaton Town Centre campus. The site is Predominantly H16 Moor Campus, Housing Heaton Moor 80 2.33 387895 392455 Near certain within a predominantly residential residential area Buckingham Rd area and is regarded as suitable for housing development. Bus depot in use. Adjoining warehouse largely vacant. Unlikely that works/warehouse part of site Bus depot and adjacent will be development without bus Mixed Use Policy More than H24 Housing Heaviley 75 1.87 390270 389315 works buildings, Charles St depot. More likely and desirable if Guidance Area likely comprehensive development takes place but then has to be regarded as a long term site. Demolition of existing buildings, mixed employment and residential MAN Diesel & Turbo UK development comprising B2/B8 Application not yet H25 Housing Hazel Grove 203 6 390736 387062 Near certain Ltd, Mirlees Drive move-on units and up to 203 decided dwellings (183 houses and 20 flats). A nursery and vacant former Former Cherry Tree Predominantly H26 Housing Great Moor 75 2.15 hospital site identified as surplus to 391275 388390 Near certain Hospital, Cherry Tree Ln residential area requirements by Stockport PCT. The school is due to close in August 2012. It is a Major Existing Developed Site (MEDS) in the Green Belt, attached Offerton High School, The More than H27 Housing Offerton 75 2.5 to the urban area, and occupies a 392070 389440 MEDS Fairway likely prominent position adjoining the Goyt Valley. Redevelopment of the site is to be in accordance with a brief agreed by the Council. A former 533sq m gross Woolworths (A1 use) with 202 sq m DC043585 Grant 553sqm A1 use, 202sqm R1 32 Woodford Road Retail Bramhall 0.03 upper floor offices; ground floor 389,085 384268 18/03/10 Site is Complete A3 use changed use to a restaurant (A3 complete use). DC042719 Grant 636sqm gross 509sqm Change use of ground floor from a R2 91 Lower Hillgate Retail Stockport 0.06 389,797 390204 20/10/09. Site is Complete net A1 use restaurant to office/showroom complete Change use of existing building from B8 (Warehouse) to D2 DC042878 Grant Former Remploy Site, 2286sqm gross D2 use R3 Retail Heaton Chapel 0.4ha (Leisure) and B1 (offices), external 389,125 393085 20/07/10. Site is Complete Broadstone Road and 326sqm B1 office use alterations and provision of parking complete facilities New mixed use hotel development Town Centre, Former DC043685 Grant More than R4 Retail Piccadilly SK1 3DY 6882sqm 0.179ha inc. Conference facilities, leisure 389575 390089 Greenhale House 19/08/10 likely suite and associated parking

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Mixed use development comprising Town Centre, Former DC025628 Grant More than R5 Retail Piccadilly SK1 3DY 664sqm 0.172ha 155 residential units and 2 389575 390089 Greenhale House 25/01/08 likely commercial units Town Centre, Unit 3 Peel DC040039 Grant R7 Retail Great Portwood Street 936sqm gross A1 use 0.094ha Installation of mezzanine floor 389,945 390839 Near certain Centre 21/01/10. Conversion of the Rock Buildings DC040486 Grant Town Centre, Rock and demolition and new build of Full Planning More than R9 Retail Stockport 2254sqm 0.14ha 389,351 390333 Buildings, Mersey Square previous extensions/outbuildings to Permission likely form an 81 bedroom hotel 04/06/09. Demolition of existing buildings and 1603sqm gross; 1239sqm regeneration of the site to provide a DC044143 Grant R10 Offerton Shopping Precinct Retail Offerton 0.652ha 391932 388887 Near certain A1, 210sqm A3 neighbourhood food store, retail 17/01/11. unit, pharmacy and restaurant Two storey class A1 non-food retail/class D2 leisure development, DC043981 Grant More than R11 M60 Gateway Retail Land at Water Street 5574sqm gross 1.1ha 389,890 391078 with associated parking and 29/07/10. likely ancillary facilities 2860sqm A1 and Mixed use (non-food retail and DC044091 Grant More than R12 M60 Gateway Retail Land at Water Street 1.2ha 389,890 391078 3150sqm hotel hotel) 06/01/11. likely

Town Centre Hollands Mill DC041892 Grant R13 Retail 61A-63 Shaw Heath 500sqm gross 0.84ha A1, A2, A3, A4 or A5 use 389494 389364 Near Certain Site 20/04/10. Demolition of warehouse and Micro Direct, Weybrook 1448sqm gross, 990sqm erection of a food store with DC046007 Grant R14 Retail Heaton Chapel 0.69ha 387,968 393074 Near certain Road net associated access car parking and 23/05/11. landscaping Reconfiguration and extension of Lancashire Hill, Halfords existing retail unit and DC029295 Grant Manchester Road, 1773sqm gross, 1418sqm R15 Unit, Manchester Road Retail 0.896ha improvements to the car parking 383374 391520 11/06/08. Under Near certain Stockport net Retail Park layout, internal access road and construction service vehicle access point External alterations to elevations and reconfiguration of existing Lancashire Hill, floorspace to create eight new retail DC041835 Grant More than R18 Manchester Road Retail Retail Stockport 3.172ha 389402 391491 units (class A1) and improvements 17/12/09. likely Park to the layout of the car park and service vehicle access Relocation and expansion of J Sainsbury's. Proposes 6551sq m net A1 use floorspace supermarket 14,629sqm gross external at Knightsbridge and closure of DC047669 R19 Town Centre J Sainsbury's Retail Stockport area. Including 6551sqm 3.79ha existing 2,599sq m net Sainsburys 389841 390826 Application not yet Near Certain net sales area supermarket at Warren Street decided which would then be likely to be redeveloped/occupied by a comparison goods retailer

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2032 Core Scenario Trafford

Floorspace (sqm) / Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Site Status Easting Northing Dwellings 2032

10049 Stamford Centre Employment/Retail 1660 Expired 376902 387995 Near Certain

10133 Altair Site Employment/Retail 8471 Outline Planning Permission 377052 387978 Near Certain

10055 Jarvis House Employment/Retail 735 Resolution To Approve 3762090 3891500 Near Certain 32133 Partington Wharfside Employment/Retail 24047 Under Construction 3722200 3921170 Near Certain

60030 Trafford Town Hall Employment/Retail 11019 Resolution To Approve 381009 395844 Near Certain

CS E1 Pomona Island Employment/Retail 381980 396865 Near Certain

CS E3 Trafford Park Core Employment/Retail 378500 396500 Near Certain

CS E4 Trafford Centre Rectangle Employment/Retail 376930 396644 Near Certain

CS E5 Carrington Employment/Retail 374500 392500 Near Certain

1177 Stamford brook,sinderland brook (part hou4) Housing 90 Reserved matters 375851 389924 Near Certain Stamford brook - phase 2/3,sinderland brook (part) 1193 Housing 380 Reserved matters pp 375783 390179 Near Certain hou4) 1468 Land at ripon crescent,brompton road Housing 80 Full planning permission 377865 395193 Near Certain

CS H1 Pomona island Housing 800 381729 396646 Near Certain

CS H2 Trafford wharfside Housing 900 380483 396817 Near Certain CS H3 Lccc Housing 400 None 380928 395685 Near Certain

CS H4 Trafford centre rectangle Housing 1050 None 376205 397260 Near Certain

CS H5 Carrington Housing 1560 373184 392392 Near Certain

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Appendix A5 2032 ‘Optimistic’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council)

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2032 Optimistic Scenario Cheshire East Council

Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Dwellings/Floorspace (sqm) Description Easting Northing Plan Status 2032 Large greenfield site allocated in Local Plan for B1, B2, B8 Potential estimated circa 8,000 Allocated for development. Significant sqm food retail; 1,000 sqm car employment but development constraints. South Macclesfield showroom; 10,000 seat constraints mean that London Road / Congleton Development required to provide Reasonably 1 Development Area plus Retail stadium (replacement for 391059 371520 mixed-use may be Road, Macclesfield 'South Macclesfield Distibutor foreseeable Moss Rose Ground existing Moss Rose Ground); required to improve Road' linking A523 and A536 south 70,000 sqm industrial / viability of Macclesfield. New commercial plus 500 dwellings. masterplanning exercise may review development mix. Tytherington Business Large greenfield site allocated in Allocated with Springwood Way, Circa 28,000 sqm B1a 2 Park remaining plots on Employment Local Plan. High quality business 392261 375965 permission Near certain Macclesfield remaining phases 1 & 2 park principally for B1 uses. Springwood Way / Greenfield allocated site. Planning Tytherington Business 25,618 sqm office plus 100 bed Allocated with 3 Retail Manchester Road, consent principally for B1 uses with 391827 376019 permission Near certain Park Phase 3 hotel Macclesfield an element of C1. Greenfield allocated site with planning 4 Land off Albert Road Employment Albert Road, Bollington 6,782 sqm industrial units Greenfield allocated sites 392128 377795 permission Near certain

Allocated site for Large brownfield site allocated for flagship B1a flagship B1 development. Stanley Green Industrial development. Reasonably 5 61MU Site Employment Potential circa 60,000 sqm B1a Currently has temporary consent 386500 383984 Estate, Handforth Currently in use as foreseeable for airport car parking until airport car parking 31/03/2010 facility Stamford Lodge, Planning consent for Cleared redevelopment site in the B1a office park on 6 Wilmslow Office Park Employment Altrincham Road, Circa 22,000 sqm office space 383038 382475 Near certain Green Belt. 3.6 ha of the site Wilmslow Land to rear of Lower Meadow Road, Potential circa 20,000 sqm Outline consent for 7 Handforth Dean Retail Employment Greenfield site 386222 383623 B1 units Near certain Handforth office space Park

Handforth Dean Two sites in existing industrial Planning consent for 8 Employment Epsom Avenue, Handforth 13,740 sqm office space 386316 383985 Near certain Business Park estate B1a offices

Allocated for B1/B2/B8 but Allocated site with constrained by access. New Parkgate Industrial Haig Road / Mobberley Potential circa 30,000 sqm outline consent for 9 Employment access from Mobberley Road now 376677 379763 industrial estate Near certain Estate extension Road, Knutsford industrial and office in place but requires a tunnel under extension railway to connect the site Additional allocation for B1/B2/B8 Allocated site with Additional expansion Haig Road / Mobberley 32,762 sqm industrial and to help overcome viability issues submitted 10 land at Parkgate Employment 376462 379945 application (decision More than likely Road, Knutsford office associated with cost of new access Industrial Estate pending) to Parkgate extension Estimated net gains: Circa Large town centre redevelopment Decision on outline 25,000 sqm A1 /A2 uses scheme. Revised scheme likely to planning application Macclesfield Town (predominantly A1); 3000 sqm differ from existing application - deferred pending 11 Employment Macclesfield 391693 373351 More than likely Centre Redevelopment A3/A4/A5; 2000 sqm B1a; 8 masterplanning exercise will review revisions to the screen cinema plus 100 development. Floorspace figures scheme dwellings have been estimated accordingly Green Belt site Potential for new golf course, Dairy House Lane, allocated for outdoor Reasonably 12 Dairy House Lane Leisure N/A playing fields and additional tennis 386966 383482 Handforth recreation in Local foreseeable facilities Plan Page 49 of 133 SEMMMS Uncertainty Log v6.doc

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Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Dwellings/Floorspace (sqm) Description Easting Northing Plan Status 2032

13 Knutsford Supermarket Retail Brook Street, Knutsford 1,560 sqm food retail Edge of centre redevelopment site 375500 378483 Permission granted Near certain Macclesfield District 67 dwellings, 75-bed care Cumberland Street, Site under 14 General Hospital Blue Housing home, 550 sqm retail and 3,600 Surplus hospital land 390977 373935 construction - Near certain Macclesfield Zone sqm office block Permission granted Handforth Hall White South of Coppice Way, Potential estimated circa 300 Safeguarded land for Reasonably 15 Housing Greenfield land 386683 383160 Land Handforth dwellings future development foreseeable Adlington Road White Potential estimated circa 400 Safeguarded land for Reasonably 16 Housing Adlington Road, Wilmslow Greenfield land 386907 381619 Land dwellings future development foreseeable Potential estimated circa 300 Allocated employment Reasonably 17 Ilfords Site Housing Mobberley Underused industrial site 378143 380223 dwellings land foreseeable Cattle Market & Car Potential estimated circa 170 Allocated employment Reasonably 18 Retail Chelford Agricultural market 381405 375001 Park dwellings land foreseeable Henbury High School First phases under 19 Housing Whirley Road, Macclesfield 123 dwellings Former school site 389080 373747 construction (only Near certain Site 37 still left to build0 Chester Road, Reasonably 20 TA Centre Housing 87 dwellings Former TA Barracks 390625 373598 Permission granted Macclesfield foreseeable Reasonably 21 Gradus Housing Park Lane, Macclesfield 85 dwellings 391975 373174 Permission granted foreseeable Permission granted 22 Cheshire Mills Housing Disley 160 dwellings Underused industrial site 398270 384846 Near certain Vernon County Infant Permission granted 23 Housing Bulkely Road, Poynton 73 dwellings Former school site 392163 383385 Near certain School Site under 24 Ingersley Vale Housing Bollington 66 dwellings Underused industrial site 394231 377362 construction - Near certain Permission granted Reasonably 25 Haulage Depot Housing Gunco Lane, Macclesfield 124 dwellings Former depot 392237 372606 foreseeable Permission granted for erection of part Land near former Old 2, 3, 4 storey 26 Employment Chestergate, Macclesfield 576sqm A1 Brownfield town centre site 391525 373809 building to provide a Near certain Kings Head PH mixture of A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 and B1 uses. Permission granted for the installation of Lyme Green Retail Park, 3179sqm gross, 1683sqm net Brownfield out of centre retail park 27 Unit 8 Retail 391509 371165 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield A1 unit existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted Lyme Green Retail Park, Brownfield out of centre retail park for the installation of 28 Curry's Ltd Retail 560sqm A1 391409 371133 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield unit existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted for the installation of Lyme Green Retail Park, 1352sqm gross, 720 sqm net Brownfield out of centre retail park 29 Unit 6 Retail 391448 371120 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield A1 unit existing retail warehouse unit. Alderley House, Alderley Permission granted 30 AstraZeneca Employment 6256 gross Erection of research building 384737 375562 Near certain Edge Haig Road / Mobberley Demolition of existing buildings and Permission granted 31 IFE Services Ltd Employment 2380 gross / 1180 net 376150 379507 Near certain Road, Knutsford erection of two new office buildings

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Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Dwellings/Floorspace (sqm) Description Easting Northing Plan Status 2032

Erection of two new buildings Permission granted 32 Land at Mottram Way Employment Macclesfield 1903 gross / 654 net (phase 3) comprising six single 392086 374855 Near certain storey units Erection of two storey office Under construction, building (b1) and five industrial London Road South, all buildings but final 33 Rupert House Employment 2522 storage and distribution units 391660 382521 office suite are Near certain Poynton (b2/b8) with associated parking complete and turning areas. Demolition of existing buildings and 22-24 Manchester erection of three-storey office Permission granted 34 Employment Wilmslow 1005 gross / 732 net 384897 381293 Near certain Road building incorporating car parking and alterations to access Erection of three storey extension for b1 office purposes and Under construction 35 Wycliffe House Employment Water Lane, Wilmslow 1520 384410 380995 at present Near certain provision of additional decked car parking accommodation

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2032 Optimistic Scenario High Peak

Dwellings/Floors Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status pace (sqm) 2032

H1 Granby Road Housing Buxton 104 407280 373200 Outline consent Near certain

Site requires development of Fairfield Dale Lane H2 Housing Buxton 221 Link Road which is likely to delay the 407290 373960 Extant outline consent Near certain

scheme Site requires development of Fairfield Hogshaw Reasonably H3 Housing Buxton 105 Link Road which is likely to delay the 406340 374190 Allocation foreseeable scheme Former college site, H4 Housing Buxton 105 406720 370969 Allocation Near certain Harpur Hill Recent application refused. Reasonably H5 Crossings Road Housing Chapel-en-le-Frith 105 SHLAA site in the countryside. 404780 380530 Appeal expected. foreseeable SHLAA site. Application H6 Charlestown Works Housing Glossop 100 SHLAA site on industrial land 403360 393010 Near certain currently under consideration SHLAA site, recent pre- H7 Forge Works Housing Chinley 200 SHLAA site on industrial land 404385 382136 application discussions and Near certain public consultation Employment land in Local Plan but with a recently Potential mixed-use scheme with H8 Federal Mogul Housing Chapel-en-le-Frith 200 405860 381180 adopted Interim Planning Near certain housing Statement that would enable mixed-use redevelopment

E1 Morrisons extension Employment/Retail Buxton 1253 Extension to existing supermarket 406575 372959 Full planning consent Near certain

Supermarket – Potential mixed-use scheme including Pre-application discussions Reasonably E2 Nestle, Station Road Employment/Retail Buxton 6498 Non food A1 (new supermarket and non-food) 406085 373868 and public consultation foreseeable A1, A3, A4 - 991 A3 and A4 Mixed-use scheme including non-food Reasonably E3 Hogs Yard Employment/Retail Whaley Bridge n/a 401396 382119 Outline consent retail and A3 foreseeable E4 Tesco Employment/Retail Whaley Bridge 1249 Extension to existing supermarket 401291 382103 Full planning consent Near certain Supermarket – 1921 Mixed A1 Mixed-use scheme including A1 (food E5 Howard Town Mill Employment/Retail Glossop 403545 393983 Full planning consent Near certain non-food, A3 and and non-food), A3 and A4. A4 - 2517 Proposed chill store extension, pallet E6 Staden Lane Employment/Retail Buxton B8 - 1168 407026 371986 Full planning consent Near certain storage, office, canteen & staff facilities Extension to the NE corner of the main E7 Dinting Lodge Employment/Retail Glossop B2 – 12,160 401746 394826 Full planning consent Near certain industrial building Construction of bottling plant and E8 Waterswallows Road Employment/Retail Buxton B2 – 23,865 407970 375375 Full planning consent Near certain warehousing mixed use general industrial, storage E9 Waterswallows Road Employment/Retail Buxton 3717 408090 375070 Outline consent Near certain and distribution

E10 Bowden Lane Employment/Retail Chapel-en-le-Frith 5700 Industrial units 406341 381281 Outline consent Near certain Employment land Reasonably E11 Rossington Park Employment/Retail Hadfield Unknown 401580 396580 designation. Outline approval foreseeable for B1, B2, B8

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Dwellings/Floors Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status pace (sqm) 2032

Employment land designation. Full approval but Reasonably E12 Bridge Mills Employment/Retail Tintwistle Unknown 401920 396910 no wiling developer at foreseeable present Employment land Reasonably E13 Wren Nest Road Employment/Retail Glossop Unknown 402620 394360 designation foreseeable Land off Glossop Road, Employment land Reasonably E14 Employment/Retail Glossop Unknown 401336 394171 Gamesley designation foreseeable Employment land Reasonably E15 Land off Sheffield Road Employment/Retail Chapel-en-le-Frith Unknown 406420 381120 designation foreseeable Employment land Reasonably E16 Land off Bowden Lane, Employment/Retail Chapel-en-le-Frith unknown 406320 381260 designation foreseeable Land north of Employment land Reasonably E17 Bingswood Industrial Employment/Retail Whaley Bridge Unknown 401340 381960 designation foreseeable Estate Employment land Reasonably E18 Land at Tongue Lane Employment/Retail Buxton Unknown 407470 373400 designation foreseeable Employment land Reasonably E19 Land at Staden Lane Employment/Retail Buxton Unknown 407140 372080 designation foreseeable Employment land Reasonably E20 Land at Hoffman Quarry Employment/Retail Buxton Unknown 406230 370720 designation foreseeable

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2032 Optimistic Scenario Manchester City

Net Increase in Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Area / Number of Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing 2032 dwellings

Sites at former Withington Hospital, Housing sites under construction plus additional land identified as suitable. H1 Housing 299 381767 394489 Near Certain West Didsbury Total capacity around 299 units

Former City College Site, Moor Road, H2 Housing 50 Housing site under construction. Approx 50 units still to be completed 380633 389778 Near Certain Brooklands

14 house, 135 H3 Styal Road, Woodhouse Park Housing Housing site partially complete. 147 units in total. 384201 385752 Near Certain apartments

Housing site with expired permission, some works carried out in site H4 Wastdale Road, Baguley Housing 67 preparation. Revised application submitted but withdrawn. Suitable for 50- 381059 387846 Near Certain 70 units.

Portway/Petheridge Drive, Woodhouse H5 Housing 88 Housing site under construction. 88 units. 381721 386363 Near Certain Park Former school site at Darley Avenue, Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision. Could provide H6 Housing 86 381148 393899 Near Certain Chorlton Park 86 units. Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision. Could provide H7 MMU Campus Didsbury East Housing 188 384841 390563 Near Certain 188 units. MMU aim to consolidate on a site in Hulme

H8 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 Planning Permission for 68 units 381024 387353 Near Certain

Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision as part of a East of Rowlandsway, Sharton Housing reconfiguration/ redevelopment of areas within Wythenshawe Town H9 90 382867 386916 Near Certain Centre. Could provide 90 units

H10 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 Planning Permission for 68 units 381024 387353 Near Certain Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per Employment/Reta E1 annum to 45 million passengers per 175 ha Existing Airport Operation Area identified in the City of Manchester UDP 381233 386333 Near Certain il annum by 2030. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per Employment/Reta E2 annum to 45 million passengers per 383989 385022 Near Certain il annum by 2030. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per Employment/Reta B1- 20,000m2, B8 - Proposed Airport Operation Area identified as a draft Strategic Site in the E3 annum to 45 million passengers per 380428 384538 Near Certain il 32,000m2 & B2, C1 Core Strategy. annum by 2030. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 Employment/Reta E4 15,000 sqm / 30 ha Planning Permission for 15,000sqm of office development 380548 385200 100% Near Certain business and office use including il advanced manufacturing, with

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Net Increase in Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Area / Number of Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing 2032 dwellings complementary uses including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 business and office use including advanced manufacturing, with Employment/Reta B1 - 73,000m2, B2, Manchester Business Park allocated in the City of Manchester UDP for E5 381779 385654 100% Near Certain complementary uses including, hotel, il B8, A1, C1, C3 High Technology Industries leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 business and office use including advanced manufacturing, with Employment/Reta E6 To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core Strategy 383379 385010 100% Near Certain complementary uses including, hotel, il leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Health Zone (development of core hospital uses such as patient wards and Employment/Reta E7 hospital theatres, and core plus uses D1, C1, C2 To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core Strategy 380400 387500 Near Certain il such as research and education) at Wythenshawe Hospital Employment/Reta A1, A2, A3, B1, E8 New District Centre Baguley Identified in the draft Core Strategy 380288 389394 Near Certain il C1,C2,C3 New Town Centre Bus Station at Employment/Reta E9 0.540338 ha Submitted Planning application and funding in place 382770 387124 Near Certain Wythenshawe Hospital il 1.16ha Office Allocation with vacant Employment/Reta Reasonably E10 plots remaining undeveloped at Simons 1.16 ha Office allocation within the City of Manchester UDP. 383632 386040 il Foreseeable Way/Shadowmoss Road 3,120sqm of office planning permission Employment/Reta E11 3,120 sqm / 0.39 ha Under construction for B1 offices. 382838 387328 Near Certain on 0.39ha at Cedars, Wythenshawe il 1.46ha Office allocation at Princess Employment/Reta Allocated site within the City of Manchester UDP. Partially developed but Reasonably E12 1.46 ha 383359 392175 Road/ Barlow Moor Road il has remaining development potential. foreseeable 20,169sqm on 3.04ha site at Didsbury Employment/Reta E13 20,169 sqm / 3.04 ha Planning permission for B1 383463 392501 Nearly certain Point, Princess Road il Employment/Reta Reasonably E14 1.57ha Office allocation at Parrswood 1.57 ha Allocated site within the City of Manchester UDP. 385642 390559 il Foreseeable Etrop Court 2 shops, 6206sqm on 0.94ha office B1 (District offices for the Employment/Reta E15 6206 sqm / 0.94 ha Planning permission for B1 382713 387187 Nearly Certain Local authority) at Rowlandsway, il Wythenshawe Employment/Reta E16 Private Hospital @ Didsbusry Point 15,500m2 Planning permission 383580 392651 Near Certain il New Bus Garage, Stage Coach @ Employment/Reta E17 4385 / 1.75 ha Planning Permission 383405 389049 Near Certain Longley Lane il Recycling Centre rebuild@ Longley Employment/Reta E18 7064m2 383662 389062 Near Certain Lane il

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2032 Optimistic Scenario Stockport

Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Major office development site with a Allocation in number of consents and outline Employment Area, Cheadle Royal Business 11,000sqm B1 E1 Cheadle Royal Employment 2.84Ha permission. Figure includes all land 385340 385945 with some full Near certain Park, Cheadle office still available for development, with permissions to be estimated floorspace implemented Higher Bury Street, 574sqm B1 Full permission in E2 Green Lane Industrial Area Employment 0.6Ha 388661 390666 Near certain Stockport office Office development at vacant site employment area Employment site Travis Perkins, Lime E3 Cheadle District Centre Employment 1011sqm B8 0.51Ha 385,699 388732 adjacent to district Near certain Grove, Cheadle Redevelopment of existing site centre Development of a number of B2 19888sqm Permission E4 Former Thomas Storey Site Employment Tiviot Way, Stockport 6.6Ha and B8 units vacant employment 389000 391000 Near certain B2/B8 granted site Pepper Road, Hazel 500sqm light Full permission in More than E5 Land at Pepper Road Employment 1.01Ha Development of light industrial unit 391020 386720 Grove industrial Employment Area likely

Thales, Ashurst Drive, 3345sqm B1 Full permission in More than E6 Lawnhurst Business Park Employment 0.87Ha Office extension at existing use 387789 388191 Cheadle Heath office employment area likely

12555sqm B1 Permission for a number of units in Full permission in E7 Kings Vallley Employment Yew Street, Stockport 2.54Ha 388139 390049 Near certain office an allocated site close to M60 Jct.1 employment area

Battersea Road, Heaton 4479sqm B1 Full permission in E9 Battersea Road Business Park Employment 1.24Ha Office development at vacant site 386550 390079 Near certain Mersey office employment area 25000sqm B1 Vacant allocated site in M60 Gorsey Bank Road, Allocated Reasonably E10 Gorsey Bank Employment office/light 6.9Ha Gateway area. Estimated 387550 389850 Stockport employment site foreseeable industrial floorspace Sites to be allocated through Major focus for future office LDF process, development in borough over a however such 65000sqm B1 number of sites in the town centre. More than E11 Stockport Town Centre Employment Town Centre Area 389590 390250 development in office Estimated floorspace. likely the town centre is (Easting/Northing given is for one likely to be particular site in the town centre). acceptable in policy. A number of different sites in this large employment area have potential for (re)development. This Variety of vacant 22500sqm is an estimated total area and sites and More than E12 Bredbury Parkway Employment 7Ha 392575 392512 B2/B8 floorspace for what will primarily be permissions within likely B2 and B8 uses. (Easting/Northing and permissions given is for one particular site in the employment area). Vacant site subject to SPD at present (2011) 900 dwellings Mixed use site, current uncertainty Final outcome (now only More than E13 Woodford Housing Former BAE site 25 Ha over the employment land / housing 390,800 382,700 unknown - figures limited ancillary likely split, assuming 'Option 3'. included here are development) based on updated information from Jim McMahon

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Factory Road, off Allocated Reasonably E14 Pepper Road Industrial Estate Employment Pepper Road, Hazel 9000sqm 2.60Ha Vacant site in employment area 390050 386550 employment area foreseeable Grove Melford Road, Hazel 15000sqm Allocated site in Reasonably E15 Melford Road Employment Area Employment 4.47 Ha Vacant employment area 392690 386320 Grove B1/B2/B8 UDP foreseeable Conversion and extension to existing mills to provide 383 units and 88 units in new 6 storey block - 471 in total. Phase I complete (180 Under H1 Site of New Mill, Houldsworth Street Housing Reddish 291 2.77 389119 393678 Near certain flats) - hence no. of units given is construction 291. Phase II (123) started but has stalled. Phases III and IV may be scaled back. Application granted Oct 2010 for demolition of vacant foundry and 104, 106 Cross Lane and Park and Under H2 Housing Marple 79 1.93 ancillary buildings and 395025 388354 Near certain Paterson Ltd construction redevelopment of site for 79 dwellings. Under H3 Goyt Works, Station Road Housing Strines 96 2.5 Redevelopment to provide 96 397410 386519 Near certain houses and 2 employment units. construction Allocated housing site reclaimed using derelict land grant. New road Site A - Phase 2 (Former Bridgehall Allocated housing H4 Housing Bridgehall 150 4.9 access created and the site is now 388339 388720 Near certain Sidings) site ready for redevelopment after being regraded and levelled. Development of landfill site - 163 managed flats comprising one 3/4 storey and four 3 storey blocks of Application not yet H5 Land at Midland Rd / Geneva Rd Housing Bramhall 163 5 flats (139 x 2 bed units - 30 AH) & 388982 387378 Near certain decided one 3 storey block of 24 sheltered flats for elderly persons (15 x 2 bed and 9 x 1 bed). Conversion of vacant hospital buildings to create 42 flats and Full planning H6 Former Barnes Hospital, Kingsway Housing Cheadle 128 3.8 385216 389011 Near certain erection of 18 town houses and 68 permission flats. The Planning Brief for this Major Existing Developed Site in the Green Belt lists housing as an Application not yet H7 Compstall Mills, Andrew Street Housing Compstall 121 1.55 acceptable use. Application 396550 390760 Near certain decided submitted 22/6/09 for mixed use development including 121 residential units. Outline application granted 20/04/2010 for mixed-use Outline planning H8 Hollands Mill site, 61a - 63 Shaw Heath Housing Town Centre 112 0.752 development of vacant site 389515 389410 Near certain permission providing up to 112 residential units. Planning permission granted Mar 2010 for a total of 90 units and 2 Full planning H9 Hopes Carr Phase 1 Housing Town Centre 90 1.2 retail units in line with approved 389950 390240 Near certain permission masterplan for wider Covent Garden area.

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Residential development assumed to be currently unviable. Application granted 19/03/2009 for use as a temporary car park. Owner also Reasonably H10 Greenhale House site, Piccadilly Housing Town Centre 155 0.17 389579 390090 Town Centre area exploring alternative uses (hotel) foreseeable but the site remains vacant and no other applications have been granted yet. Application submitted in the past for mixed use redevelopment of Grand Central complex to provide hotel, 206 apartments, food and drink and Reasonably H11 Grand Central Housing Town Centre 125 2.6 389375 389975 Town Centre area ancillary retail, offices, multi-storey foreseeable car park, and re-modelling of existing bowling alley, cinema and swimming pool. Former secondary school converted to Council offices, training centre, leisure centre and library. Major repairs needed in Predominantly H12 Dialstone Centre, Lisburne Lane Housing Offerton 90 3.5 medium term. Site has been 391670 388580 Near certain residential area marketed for disposal though may need to accommodate some of the existing uses on the redeveloped site. Masterplan for wider Covent Garden area approved Dec 09 with indicative total of 270 additional Hopes Carr Phase 2 / Covent Garden More than H13 Housing Town Centre 120 2.64 units including development of this 389900 390170 Town Centre area sites likely car park / vacant site and refurbishment of existing flats. See also site 247 in particular. Reasonably H14 Grand Central (north west car park) Housing Town Centre 81 0.134 See Site H15. 389270 390010 Town Centre area foreseeable Site put forward during SHLAA Call for Sites exercise. Used scheme submitted during UDP review to Predominantly More than H15 Oakwood Mills, Oakwood Road Housing Romiley 150 4.3 394460 390525 estimate capacity. 90 houses and residential area likely 60 flats in 4 three storey blocks (5 flats on each floor). College intends to sell the site following the redevelopment of Stockport College Heaton Moor Town Centre campus. The site is Predominantly H16 Housing Heaton Moor 80 2.33 387895 392455 Near certain Campus, Buckingham Rd within a predominantly residential residential area area and is regarded as suitable for housing development. Site earmarked for major retail led mixed use development scheme including 250 apartments. The Council's preferred developer Reasonably H17 Bridgefield Street development Housing Town Centre 250 4.375 389400 390600 Town Centre area withdrew in 2008 following change foreseeable in economic climate. The Council remains committed to bringing the site forward.

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Suggested by Neighbourhood Renewal and identified in draft Brinnington Masterplan as a Future Lapwing Centre and Castle Hill School, Growth Opportunity. Accessible Reasonably H18 Housing Brinnington 149 4.67 391490 392750 Green Belt Polletts Ave Green Belt site adjoining the urban foreseeable area. Expected that existing uses (education, sports) will be relocated to Brinnington centre. Surface car park in town centre with redevelopment potential. Approved Planning Brief updated in 2004 Reasonably H19 Piccadilly / Fletcher Street Car Park Housing Town Centre 125 0.5 identified site as a potential 389580 390250 Town Centre area foreseeable residential development opportunity. Site part owned by Stockport Council. Application submitted in 2002 for 120 flats on under-utilised town Site bounded by St Petersgate, Lord St centre site. The majority of the site Reasonably H20 Housing Town Centre 120 0.4 389470 390180 Town Centre area & Wellington St is used as a surface car park and is foreseeable therefore seen as having redevelopment potential. Put forward during Call for Sites. Contrary to current policy but given size of site and location have assumed release of land would not Reasonably H21 Land at Offerton Road Housing Offerton 100 2.87 393260 387880 Green Belt amount to an exceptional foreseeable substantial strategic change to the Green Belt. Regarded as potentially suitable. Site put forward during SHLAA Call for Sites exercise. Partially vacant Reasonably H22 Broadstone Mill, Broadstone Road Housing Reddish 100 2 mill potentially suitable for mixed 389125 393080 Employment Area foreseeable employment and residential development. Under-utilised locally listed mill complex in predominantly Predominantly Reasonably H23 Hallam Mill, Hallam Street Housing Cale Green 85 0.9 390010 388765 residential area. Potential long term residential area foreseeable housing site. Bus depot in use. Adjoining warehouse largely vacant. Unlikely that works/warehouse part of site Bus depot and adjacent works will be development without bus Mixed Use Policy More than H24 Housing Heaviley 75 1.87 390270 389315 buildings, Charles St depot. More likely and desirable if Guidance Area likely comprehensive development takes place but then has to be regarded as a long term site. Demolition of existing buildings, mixed employment and residential MAN Diesel & Turbo UK Ltd, Mirlees development comprising B2/B8 Application not yet H25 Housing Hazel Grove 203 6 390736 387062 Near certain Drive move-on units and up to 203 decided dwellings (183 houses and 20 flats). A nursery and vacant former Former Cherry Tree Hospital, Cherry Predominantly H26 Housing Great Moor 75 2.15 hospital site identified as surplus to 391275 388390 Near certain Tree Ln residential area requirements by Stockport PCT.

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 The school is due to close in August 2012. It is a Major Existing Developed Site (MEDS) in the Green Belt, attached More than H27 Offerton High School, The Fairway Housing Offerton 75 2.5 to the urban area, and occupies a 392070 389440 MEDS likely prominent position adjoining the Goyt Valley. Redevelopment of the site is to be in accordance with a brief agreed by the Council. The vacant former hospital complex includes the original prominent and Grade II listed Stockport Union Workhouse. The northern half of Reasonably H28 Former St Thomas' Hospital Housing Shaw Heath 100 2.3 site is owned by Stockport PCT and 389455 389530 Town Centre area foreseeable identified as surplus to requirements. The southern half (including workhouse) is owned by Stockport College. A former 533sq m gross Woolworths (A1 use) with 202 sq m DC043585 Grant 553sqm A1 use, R1 32 Woodford Road Retail Bramhall 0.03 upper floor offices; ground floor 389,085 384268 18/03/10 Site is Complete 202sqm A3 use changed use to a restaurant (A3 complete use). 636sqm gross DC042719 Grant Change use of ground floor from a R2 91 Lower Hillgate Retail Stockport 509sqm net A1 0.06 389,797 390204 20/10/09. Site is Complete restaurant to office/showroom use complete Change use of existing building 2286sqm gross from B8 (Warehouse) to D2 DC042878 Grant D2 use and R3 Former Remploy Site, Broadstone Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.4ha (Leisure) and B1 (offices), external 389,125 393085 20/07/10. Site is Complete 326sqm B1 alterations and provision of parking complete office use facilities New mixed use hotel development DC043685 Grant More than R4 Town Centre, Former Greenhale House Retail Piccadilly SK1 3DY 6882sqm 0.179ha inc. Conference facilities, leisure 389575 390089 19/08/10 likely suite and associated parking Mixed use development comprising DC025628 Grant More than R5 Town Centre, Former Greenhale House Retail Piccadilly SK1 3DY 664sqm 0.172ha 155 residential units and 2 389575 390089 25/01/08 likely commercial units DC030870 Case not yet decided – Mixed use development comprising ratified by Reasonably R6 Town Centre, Kwik-Fit Retail Heaton Lane 2540.1sqm 0.27ha 110 bedroom hotel, 2191sq m of 389,055 390304 committee on foreseeable office floorspace and 35 apartments 13/11/08 subject to a s106 agreement. 936sqm gross DC040039 Grant R7 Town Centre, Unit 3 Peel Centre Retail Great Portwood Street 0.094ha Installation of mezzanine floor 389,945 390839 Near certain A1 use 21/01/10. subdivision to create a 713.5sq.m A1 retail unit and a 185.8sqm A3 713.5sqm A1, restaurant and cafe unit. Therefore DC043495 Grant Reasonably R8 Town Centre, Unit 3 Peel Centre Retail Great Portwood Street 185.8sqm A1 to 0.094ha as a subdivision the proposal 389,945 390839 08/02/10. foreseeable A3 introduces A3 use to the site and results in the loss of 185.5sqm A1 use

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Conversion of the Rock Buildings DC040486 Grant Town Centre, Rock Buildings, Mersey and demolition and new build of Full Planning More than R9 Retail Stockport 2254sqm 0.14ha 389,351 390333 Square previous extensions/outbuildings to Permission likely form an 81 bedroom hotel 04/06/09. Demolition of existing buildings and 1603sqm gross; regeneration of the site to provide a DC044143 Grant R10 Offerton Shopping Precinct Retail Offerton 1239sqm A1, 0.652ha 391932 388887 Near certain neighbourhood food store, retail 17/01/11. 210sqm A3 unit, pharmacy and restaurant Two storey class A1 non-food retail/class D2 leisure development, DC043981 Grant More than R11 M60 Gateway Retail Land at Water Street 5574sqm gross 1.1ha 389,890 391078 with associated parking and 29/07/10. likely ancillary facilities 2860sqm A1 Mixed use (non-food retail and DC044091 Grant More than R12 M60 Gateway Retail Land at Water Street and 3150sqm 1.2ha 389,890 391078 hotel) 06/01/11. likely hotel DC041892 Grant R13 Town Centre Hollands Mill Site Retail 61A-63 Shaw Heath 500sqm gross 0.84ha A1, A2, A3, A4 or A5 use 389494 389364 Near Certain 20/04/10. Demolition of warehouse and 1448sqm gross, erection of a food store with DC046007 Grant R14 Micro Direct, Weybrook Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.69ha 387,968 393074 Near certain 990sqm net associated access car parking and 23/05/11. landscaping Reconfiguration and extension of existing retail unit and DC029295 Grant Lancashire Hill, Halfords Unit, Manchester Road, 1773sqm gross, R15 Retail 0.896ha improvements to the car parking 383374 391520 11/06/08. Under Near certain Manchester Road Retail Park Stockport 1418sqm net layout, internal access road and construction service vehicle access point Unit 1, Plot 3 Bramhall Moor Industrial Change of use from warehousing to DC044358 Grant Reasonably R16 Retail Hazel Grove 1262sqm 0.4ha 390,813 386828 Park, Pepper Road a gymnastics facility 30/09/10. foreseeable Erection of six/seven story building to form 165 bedroom Hillton DC041071 Grant Reasonably R17 Kings Reach, Yew Street Retail Heaton Mersey 9141.2sqm 0.4ha Garden Inn Hotel with business 388,246 390172 10/08/09. foreseeable conference areas and basement and ground level parking External alterations to elevations and reconfiguration of existing Lancashire Hill, Manchester Road floorspace to create eight new retail DC041835 Grant More than R18 Retail Stockport 3.172ha 389402 391491 Retail Park units (class A1) and improvements 17/12/09. likely to the layout of the car park and service vehicle access Relocation and expansion of J Sainsbury's. Proposes 6551sq m 14,629sqm net A1 use floorspace supermarket gross external at Knightsbridge and closure of DC047669 R19 Town Centre J Sainsbury's Retail Stockport area. Including 3.79ha existing 2,599sq m net Sainsburys 389841 390826 Application not yet Near Certain 6551sqm net supermarket at Warren Street decided sales area which would then be likely to be redeveloped/occupied by a comparison goods retailer

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2032 Optimistic Scenario Trafford Floorspace Reference Site Type (sqm)/ Easting Northing Site Status Uncertainty by 2032 Dwellings 10049 Stamford Centre Employment/Retail 1660 376902 387995 Expired Near Certain

12049 Altrincham Saw Mills Employment/Retail 628 3767750 3894890 Expired Reasonably Foreseeable 10130 7-9 & 11 Springfield Road Employment/Retail 829 376897 388189 Minded to Grant Reasonably Foreseeable

10133 Altair Site Employment/Retail 8471 377052 387978 Outline Planning Permission Near Certain

10050 Land at 15-41Railway Street Employment/Retail 5312 3767440 3876390 Full Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable 10052 JCB Ltd Employment/Retail 2273 3755400 3889680 Full Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable

10055 Jarvis House Employment/Retail 735 3762090 3891500 Resolution To Approve Near Certain

32133 Partington Wharfside Employment/Retail 24047 3722200 3921170 Under Construction Near Certain

40011 Progress House Employment/Retail 1350 377067 386704 Full Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable Petrol station and adjacent land at 499 Chester Road, Old 60028 Employment/Retail 806 3821230 3963610 Resolution To Approve Reasonably Foreseeable Trafford 70132 Manchester Utd Football Club Employment/Retail 3976 3806150 3964330 Resolution To Approve Reasonably Foreseeable

62015/00 Employment/Retail 912 382400 396300 Expired Reasonably Foreseeable

60021 39 Talbot Road Employment/Retail 3712 381496 396056 Expired Reasonably Foreseeable 60012 Former Trafford Press Employment/Retail 579 382250 396553 Full Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable

60027 Land at Northumberland Road Employment/Retail 2000 382376 396496 Full Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable

62020 Jesse Oldfield Bakeries Employment/Retail 1942 381465 395533 Resolution To Approve Reasonably Foreseeable 60030 Trafford Town Hall Employment/Retail 11019 381009 395844 Resolution To Approve Near Certain

72094 Former Kratos Site Employment/Retail 27870 377836 396412 Outline Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable

72068 Trafford Park Bakery Employment/Retail 3065 3781180 3973200 Full Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable 72079 Electric Park Employment/Retail 10921 379458 395949 Full Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable

72103 Trinity Business Park Employment/Retail 5537 377568 397804 Full Planning Permission Reasonably Foreseeable

70025 Victoria Warehouse Employment/Retail 15369 381097 396446 Lost To Other Uses Reasonably Foreseeable

70026 Land at Warren Bruce Road Employment/Retail 2971 379974 396939 Expired Reasonably Foreseeable 70129 Land bound by Ashburton Road West Employment/Retail 7644 377119 397399 Resolution To Approve Reasonably Foreseeable

70131 Land at Mosley Road Employment/Retail 16130 379116 395800 Available Reasonably Foreseeable

72126 Sca hygiene products Employment/Retail 19000 3786070 3978240 Under Construction Reasonably Foreseeable 72127 Former sterling technology site Employment/Retail 560 379793 396157 Resolution To Approve Reasonably Foreseeable

CS E1 Pomona island Employment/Retail 381980 396865 Near Certain

CS E3 Trafford park core Employment/Retail 378500 396500 Near Certain

CS E4 Trafford centre rectangle Employment/Retail 376930 396644 Near Certain

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Floorspace Reference Site Type (sqm)/ Easting Northing Site Status Uncertainty by 2032 Dwellings CS E5 Carrington Employment/Retail 374500 392500 Near Certain

1177 Stamford brook,sinderland brook (part hou4) Housing 90 375851 389924 Reserved matters Near Certain 1193 Stamford brook - phase 2/3,sinderland brook (part) hou4) Housing 380 375783 390179 Reserved matters pp Near Certain

1427 Land At Northumberland Road (Hou7) Housing 193 382378 396509 Minded to grant Reasonably Foreseeable

1429 Empress Mill,Empress Street Housing 100 382241 396616 Full pp Reasonably Foreseeable

1455 Trafford Press Site,Chester Road Housing 116 382250 396550 Full planning permission Reasonably Foreseeable 1468 Land At Ripon Crescent,Brompton Road Housing 80 377865 395193 Full planning permission Near Certain

1469 Petrol Station And Adj Land At,499 Chester Road Housing 95 382127 396362 Full planning permission Reasonably Foreseeable

1561 Orton Brook School Site,Oak Road Housing 75 371275 390594 Reasonably Foreseeable

1542 L & M Site, Norman Road Housing 243 376060 388786 UDP allocation Reasonably Foreseeable

1547 Land At Cherry Lane Housing 130 376287 390828 Reasonably Foreseeable

1565 Tamworth Court And Chorlton Rd (Land Fronting) Housing 112 383202 396047 Reasonably Foreseeable

1572 Manor Avenue Housing 100 376304 392097 Reasonably Foreseeable

1599 Woodfield House, Woodfield Road Housing 174 376353 388948 UDP allocation Reasonably Foreseeable

1610 Land Adjacent To Manchester Ship Canal Housing 550 371103 391625 Outline planning permission Reasonably Foreseeable

1845 Land off broadway Housing 80 375577 395905 Minded to Grant Reasonably Foreseeable CS H1 Pomona Island Housing 800 381729 396646 Near Certain

CS H2 Trafford Wharfside Housing 900 380483 396817 Near Certain

CS H3 LCCC Housing 400 380928 395685 None Near Certain CS H4 Trafford Centre Rectangle Housing 1050 376205 397260 None Near Certain

CS H5 Carrington Housing 1560 373184 392392 Near Certain

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Appendix A6 2032 ‘Pessimistic’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council)

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2032 Pessimistic Scenario Cheshire East

Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Floorspace (sqm) Description Easting Northing Plan Status 2032

Tytherington Business Large greenfield site allocated in Springwood Way, Circa 28,000 sqm B1a Allocated with 2 Park remaining plots on Employment Local Plan. High quality business 392261 375965 Near certain Macclesfield remaining permission phases 1 & 2 park principally for B1 uses. Springwood Way / Greenfield allocated site. Planning Tytherington Business 25,618 sqm office plus 100 Allocated with 3 Retail Manchester Road, consent principally for B1 uses with 391827 376019 Near certain Park Phase 3 bed hotel permission Macclesfield an element of C1. Greenfield allocated site with planning 4 Land off Albert Road Employment Albert Road, Bollington 6,782 sqm industrial units Greenfield allocated sites 392128 377795 Near certain permission

Planning consent for Stamford Lodge, Altrincham Circa 22,000 sqm office Cleared redevelopment site in the B1a office park on 6 Wilmslow Office Park Employment 383038 382475 Near certain Road, Wilmslow space Green Belt. 3.6 ha of the site

Land to rear of Handforth Lower Meadow Road, Potential circa 20,000 sqm Outline consent for 7 Employment Greenfield site 386222 383623 Near certain Dean Retail Park Handforth office space B1 units Handforth Dean 8 Employment Epsom Avenue, Handforth 13,740 sqm office space Two sites in existing industrial estate 386316 383985 Planning consent for Near certain Business Park B1a offices Allocated for B1/B2/B8 but constrained by access. New access Allocated site with Parkgate Industrial Haig Road / Mobberley Road, Potential circa 30,000 sqm outline consent for 9 Employment from Mobberley Road now in place 376677 379763 Near certain Estate extension Knutsford industrial and office industrial estate but requires a tunnel under railway to extension connect the site 13 Knutsford Supermarket Retail Brook Street, Knutsford 1,560 sqm food retail Edge of centre redevelopment site 375500 378483 Permission granted Near certain Macclesfield District 67 dwellings, 75-bed care Cumberland Street, Site under 14 General Hospital Blue Housing home, 550 sqm retail and Surplus hospital land 390977 373935 construction - Near certain Macclesfield Zone 3,600 sqm office block Permission granted Henbury High School First phases under 19 Housing Whirley Road, Macclesfield 123 dwellings Former school site 389080 373747 construction (only 37 Near certain Site still left to build0 22 Cheshire Mills Housing Disley 160 dwellings Underused industrial site 398270 384846 Permission granted Near certain

Vernon County Infant 23 Housing Bulkely Road, Poynton 73 dwellings Former school site 392163 383385 Permission granted Near certain School Site under 24 Ingersley Vale Housing Bollington 66 dwellings Underused industrial site 394231 377362 construction - Near certain Permission granted Permission granted for erection of part 2, Land near former Old 3, 4 storey building to 26 Employment Chestergate, Macclesfield 576sqm A1 Brownfield town centre site 391525 373809 Near certain Kings Head PH provide a mixture of A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 and B1 uses. Permission granted Lyme Green Retail Park, 3179sqm gross, 1683sqm Brownfield out of centre retail park for the installation of 27 Unit 8 Retail 391509 371165 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield net A1 unit existing retail warehouse unit. Permission granted Lyme Green Retail Park, Brownfield out of centre retail park for the installation of 28 Curry's Ltd Retail 560sqm A1 391409 371133 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield unit existing retail warehouse unit.

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Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Floorspace (sqm) Description Easting Northing Plan Status 2032

Permission granted Lyme Green Retail Park, 1352sqm gross, 720 sqm Brownfield out of centre retail park for the installation of 29 Unit 6 Retail 391448 371120 mezzanine floor into Near certain Macclesfield net A1 unit existing retail warehouse unit. Alderley House, Alderley 30 AstraZeneca Employment 6256 gross Erection of research building 384737 375562 Permission granted Near certain Edge Haig Road / Mobberley Road, Demolition of existing buildings and 31 IFE Services Ltd Employment 2380 gross / 1180 net 376150 379507 Permission granted Near certain Knutsford erection of two new office buildings Erection of two new buildings (phase 32 Land at Mottram Way Employment Macclesfield 1903 gross / 654 net 392086 374855 Permission granted Near certain 3) comprising six single storey units Erection of two storey office building Under construction, (b1) and five industrial storage and all buildings but final 33 Rupert House Employment London Road South, Poynton 2522 391660 382521 Near certain distribution units (b2/b8) with office suite are associated parking and turning areas. complete Demolition of existing buildings and erection of three-storey office building 34 22-24 Manchester Road Employment Wilmslow 1005 gross / 732 net 384897 381293 Permission granted Near certain incorporating car parking and alterations to access Erection of three storey extension for b1 office purposes and provision of Under construction at 35 Wycliffe House Employment Water Lane, Wilmslow 1520 384410 380995 Near certain additional decked car parking present accommodation

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2032 Pessimistic Scenario High Peak

Dwellings/Floorspace Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Location Description Easting Northing Plan Status (sqm) 2032

H1 Granby Road Housing Buxton 104 407280 373200 Outline consent Near certain

Site requires development of Fairfield H2 Dale Lane Housing Buxton Extant outline 221 Link Road which is likely to delay the 407290 373960 Near certain consent scheme Former college site, Harpur H4 Housing Buxton 105 406720 370969 Allocation Near certain Hill SHLAA site. H6 Charlestown Works Housing Glossop 100 SHLAA site on industrial land 403360 393010 Application currently Near certain under consideration SHLAA site, recent pre-application H7 Forge Works Housing Chinley 200 SHLAA site on industrial land 404385 382136 Near certain discussions and pubic consultation Employment land in Local Plan but with a recently adopted Potential mixed-use scheme with H8 Federal Mogul Housing Chapel-en-le-Frith 200 405860 381180 Interim Planning Near certain housing Statement that would enable mixed-use redevelopment

E1 Morrisons extension Employment/Retail Buxton 1253 Extension to existing supermarket 406575 372959 Full planning consent Near certain

E4 Tesco Employment/Retail Whaley Bridge 1249 Extension to existing supermarket 401291 382103 Full planning consent Near certain Supermarket – 1921 Mixed Mixed-use scheme including A1 E5 Howard Town Mill Employment/Retail Glossop A1 non-food, A3 and A4 - 403545 393983 Full planning consent Near certain (food and non-food), A3 and A4. 2517 Proposed chill store extension, pallet E6 Staden Lane Employment/Retail Buxton B8 - 1168 storage, office, canteen & staff 407026 371986 Full planning consent Near certain facilities Extension to the NE corner of the E7 Dinting Lodge Employment/Retail Glossop B2 – 12,160 401746 394826 Full planning consent Near certain main industrial building Construction of bottling plant and E8 Waterswallows Road Employment/Retail Buxton B2 – 23,865 407970 375375 Full planning consent Near certain warehousing mixed use general industrial, storage E9 Waterswallows Road Employment/Retail Buxton 3717 408090 375070 Outline consent Near certain and distribution

E10 Bowden Lane Employment/Retail Chapel-en-le-Frith 5700 Industrial units 406341 381281 Outline consent Near certain

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2032 Pessimistic Scenario Manchester City

Net Increase in Area / Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing Number of dwellings 2032

Housing sites under construction plus additional land identified H1 Sites at former Withington Hospital, West Didsbury Housing 299 381767 394489 Near Certain as suitable. Total capacity around 299 units

Housing site under construction. Approx 50 units still to be H2 Former City College Site, Moor Road, Brooklands Housing 50 380633 389778 Near Certain completed

14 house, 135 H3 Styal Road, Woodhouse Park Housing Housing site partially complete. 147 units in total. 384201 385752 Near Certain apartments

Housing site with expired permission, some works carried out H4 Wastdale Road, Baguley Housing 67 in site preparation. Revised application submitted but 381059 387846 Near Certain withdrawn. Suitable for 50-70 units.

H5 Portway/Petheridge Drive, Woodhouse Park Housing 88 Housing site under construction. 88 units. 381721 386363 Near Certain

Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision. H6 Former school site at Darley Avenue, Chorlton Park Housing 86 381148 393899 Near Certain Could provide 86 units. Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision. H7 MMU Campus Didsbury East Housing 188 Could provide 188 units. MMU aim to consolidate on a site in 384841 390563 Near Certain Hulme H8 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 Planning Permission for 68 units 381024 387353 Near Certain Land identified in SHLAA as suitable for housing provision as East of Rowlandsway, Sharton Housing part of a reconfiguration/ redevelopment of areas within H9 90 382867 386916 Near Certain Wythenshawe Town Centre. Could provide 90 units

H10 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 Planning Permission for 68 units 381024 387353 Near Certain Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to Existing Airport Operation Area identified in the City of E1 45 million passengers per annum by 2030. Employment/Retail 175 ha 381233 386333 Near Certain Manchester UDP Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to E2 45 million passengers per annum by 2030. Employment/Retail 383989 385022 Near Certain Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Expansion of Manchester Airport from approximately 20 million passengers per annum to B1- 20,000m2, B8 - Proposed Airport Operation Area identified as a draft Strategic E3 45 million passengers per annum by 2030. Employment/Retail 380428 384538 Near Certain 32,000m2 & B2, C1 Site in the Core Strategy. Increasing the operational area from 625ha to 800ha Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 business and office use including E4 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail 15,000 sqm / 30 ha Planning Permission for 15,000sqm of office development 380548 385200 100% Near Certain including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park

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Net Increase in Area / Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Comments/Location/Planning Status Easting Northing Number of dwellings 2032

Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 business and office use including B1 - 73,000m2, B2, Manchester Business Park allocated in the City of Manchester E5 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail 381779 385654 100% Near Certain B8, A1, C1, C3 UDP for High Technology Industries including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Airport City approximately 30ha (predominantly proposed for B1 business and office use including To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core E6 advanced manufacturing, with complementary uses Employment/Retail 383379 385010 100% Near Certain Strategy including, hotel, leisure, conferencing and possibly residential) at Manchester Business Park Health Zone (development of core hospital uses such as patient wards and hospital theatres, and To be identified as part of a strategic location in the Core E7 Employment/Retail D1, C1, C2 380400 387500 Near Certain core plus uses such as research and education) at Strategy Wythenshawe Hospital A1, A2, A3, B1, E8 New District Centre Baguley Employment/Retail Identified in the draft Core Strategy 380288 389394 Near Certain C1,C2,C3 New Town Centre Bus Station at Wythenshawe E9 Employment/Retail 0.540338 ha Submitted Planning application and funding in place 382770 387124 Near Certain Hospital 3,120sqm of office planning permission on 0.39ha at E11 Employment/Retail 3,120 sqm / 0.39 ha Under construction for B1 offices. 382838 387328 Near Certain Cedars, Wythenshawe 20,169sqm on 3.04ha site at Didsbury Point, E13 Employment/Retail 20,169 sqm / 3.04 ha Planning permission for B1 383463 392501 Near certain Princess Road Etrop Court 2 shops, 6206sqm on 0.94ha office B1 E15 (District offices for the Local authority) at Employment/Retail 6206 sqm / 0.94 ha Planning permission for B1 382713 387187 Near Certain Rowlandsway, Wythenshawe E16 Private Hospital @ Didsbusry Point Employment/Retail 15,500m2 Planning permission 383580 392651 Near Certain

E17 New Bus Garage, Stage Coach @ Longley Lane Employment/Retail 4385 / 1.75 ha Planning Permission 383405 389049 Near Certain

E18 Recycling Centre rebuild@ Longley Lane Employment/Retail 7064m2 383662 389062 Near Certain

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2032 Pessimistic Scenario Stockport

Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Major office development site with a Allocation in number of consents and outline Employment Area, Cheadle Royal Business 11,000sqm B1 E1 Cheadle Royal Employment 2.84Ha permission. Figure includes all land 385340 385945 with some full Near certain Park, Cheadle office still available for development, with permissions to be estimated floorspace implemented Higher Bury Street, 574sqm B1 Full permission in E2 Green Lane Industrial Area Employment 0.6Ha 388661 390666 Near certain Stockport office Office development at vacant site employment area Employment site Travis Perkins, Lime E3 Cheadle District Centre Employment 1011sqm B8 0.51Ha 385,699 388732 adjacent to district Near certain Grove, Cheadle Redevelopment of existing site centre Development of a number of B2 19888sqm Permission E4 Former Thomas Storey Site Employment Tiviot Way, Stockport 6.6Ha and B8 units vacant employment 389000 391000 Near certain B2/B8 granted site 12555sqm B1 Permission for a number of units in Full permission in E7 Kings Vallley Employment Yew Street, Stockport 2.54Ha 388139 390049 Near certain office an allocated site close to M60 Jct.1 employment area

Battersea Road, Heaton 4479sqm B1 Full permission in E9 Battersea Road Business Park Employment 1.24Ha Office development at vacant site 386550 390079 Near certain Mersey office employment area Conversion and extension to existing mills to provide 383 units and 88 units in new 6 storey block - 471 in total. Phase I complete (180 Under H1 Site of New Mill, Houldsworth Street Housing Reddish 291 2.77 389119 393678 Near certain flats) - hence no. of units given is construction 291. Phase II (123) started but has stalled. Phases III and IV may be scaled back. Application granted Oct 2010 for demolition of vacant foundry and 104, 106 Cross Lane and Park and Under H2 Housing Marple 79 1.93 ancillary buildings and 395025 388354 Near certain Paterson Ltd construction redevelopment of site for 79 dwellings. Under H3 Goyt Works, Station Road Housing Strines 96 2.5 Redevelopment to provide 96 397410 386519 Near certain houses and 2 employment units. construction Allocated housing site reclaimed using derelict land grant. New road Site A - Phase 2 (Former Bridgehall Allocated housing H4 Housing Bridgehall 150 4.9 access created and the site is now 388339 388720 Near certain Sidings) site ready for redevelopment after being regraded and levelled. Development of landfill site - 163 managed flats comprising one 3/4 storey and four 3 storey blocks of Application not yet H5 Land at Midland Rd / Geneva Rd Housing Bramhall 163 5 flats (139 x 2 bed units - 30 AH) & 388982 387378 Near certain decided one 3 storey block of 24 sheltered flats for elderly persons (15 x 2 bed and 9 x 1 bed). Conversion of vacant hospital buildings to create 42 flats and Full planning H6 Former Barnes Hospital, Kingsway Housing Cheadle 128 3.8 385216 389011 Near certain erection of 18 town houses and 68 permission flats. Application not yet H7 Compstall Mills, Andrew Street Housing Compstall 121 1.55 The Planning Brief for this Major 396550 390760 Near certain Existing Developed Site in the decided

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Green Belt lists housing as an acceptable use. Application submitted 22/6/09 for mixed use development including 121 residential units. Outline application granted 20/04/2010 for mixed-use Outline planning H8 Hollands Mill site, 61a - 63 Shaw Heath Housing Town Centre 112 0.752 development of vacant site 389515 389410 Near certain permission providing up to 112 residential units. Planning permission granted Mar 2010 for a total of 90 units and 2 Full planning H9 Hopes Carr Phase 1 Housing Town Centre 90 1.2 retail units in line with approved 389950 390240 Near certain permission masterplan for wider Covent Garden area. Former secondary school converted to Council offices, training centre, leisure centre and library. Major repairs needed in Predominantly H12 Dialstone Centre, Lisburne Lane Housing Offerton 90 3.5 medium term. Site has been 391670 388580 Near certain residential area marketed for disposal though may need to accommodate some of the existing uses on the redeveloped site. College intends to sell the site following the redevelopment of Stockport College Heaton Moor Town Centre campus. The site is Predominantly H16 Housing Heaton Moor 80 2.33 387895 392455 Near certain Campus, Buckingham Rd within a predominantly residential residential area area and is regarded as suitable for housing development. Demolition of existing buildings, mixed employment and residential MAN Diesel & Turbo UK Ltd, Mirlees development comprising B2/B8 Application not yet H25 Housing Hazel Grove 203 6 390736 387062 Near certain Drive move-on units and up to 203 decided dwellings (183 houses and 20 flats). A nursery and vacant former Former Cherry Tree Hospital, Cherry Predominantly H26 Housing Great Moor 75 2.15 hospital site identified as surplus to 391275 388390 Near certain Tree Ln residential area requirements by Stockport PCT. A former 533sq m gross Woolworths (A1 use) with 202 sq m DC043585 Grant 553sqm A1 use, R1 32 Woodford Road Retail Bramhall 0.03 upper floor offices; ground floor 389,085 384268 18/03/10 Site is Complete 202sqm A3 use changed use to a restaurant (A3 complete use). 636sqm gross DC042719 Grant Change use of ground floor from a R2 91 Lower Hillgate Retail Stockport 509sqm net A1 0.06 389,797 390204 20/10/09. Site is Complete restaurant to office/showroom use complete Change use of existing building 2286sqm gross from B8 (Warehouse) to D2 DC042878 Grant D2 use and R3 Former Remploy Site, Broadstone Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.4ha (Leisure) and B1 (offices), external 389,125 393085 20/07/10. Site is Complete 326sqm B1 alterations and provision of parking complete office use facilities 936sqm gross DC040039 Grant R7 Town Centre, Unit 3 Peel Centre Retail Great Portwood Street 0.094ha Installation of mezzanine floor 389,945 390839 Near certain A1 use 21/01/10.

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Uncertainty Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Site Area Description Easting Northing Plan Status by 2032 Demolition of existing buildings and 1603sqm gross; regeneration of the site to provide a DC044143 Grant R10 Offerton Shopping Precinct Retail Offerton 1239sqm A1, 0.652ha 391932 388887 Near certain neighbourhood food store, retail 17/01/11. 210sqm A3 unit, pharmacy and restaurant DC041892 Grant R13 Town Centre Hollands Mill Site Retail 61A-63 Shaw Heath 500sqm gross 0.84ha A1, A2, A3, A4 or A5 use 389494 389364 Near Certain 20/04/10. Demolition of warehouse and 1448sqm gross, erection of a food store with DC046007 Grant R14 Micro Direct, Weybrook Road Retail Heaton Chapel 0.69ha 387,968 393074 Near certain 990sqm net associated access car parking and 23/05/11. landscaping Reconfiguration and extension of existing retail unit and DC029295 Grant Lancashire Hill, Halfords Unit, Manchester Road, 1773sqm gross, R15 Retail 0.896ha improvements to the car parking 383374 391520 11/06/08. Under Near certain Manchester Road Retail Park Stockport 1418sqm net layout, internal access road and construction service vehicle access point Relocation and expansion of J Sainsbury's. Proposes 6551sq m 14,629sqm net A1 use floorspace supermarket gross external at Knightsbridge and closure of DC047669 R19 Town Centre J Sainsbury's Retail Stockport area. Including 3.79ha existing 2,599sq m net Sainsburys 389841 390826 Application not yet Near Certain 6551sqm net supermarket at Warren Street decided sales area which would then be likely to be redeveloped/occupied by a comparison goods retailer

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2030 Pessimistic Scenario Trafford

Floorspace Reference Site Type Site Status Easting Northing Uncertainty by 2032 (sqm)/ Dwellings

10049 Stamford Centre Employment/Retail 1660 Expired 376902 387995 Near Certain

10133 Altair Site Employment/Retail 8471 Outline Planning Permission 377052 387978 Near Certain

10055 Jarvis House Employment/Retail 735 Resolution To Approve 3762090 3891500 Near Certain

32133 Partington Wharfside Employment/Retail 24047 Under Construction 3722200 3921170 Near Certain 60030 Trafford Town Hall Employment/Retail 11019 Resolution To Approve 381009 395844 Near Certain Pomona Island 381980 396865 Near Certain CS E1 Employment/Retail Trafford Park Core 378500 396500 Near Certain CS E3 Employment/Retail Trafford Centre Rectangle 376930 396644 Near Certain CS E4 Employment/Retail Carrington 374500 392500 Near Certain CS E5 Employment/Retail 1177 Stamford brook,sinderland brook (part hou4) Housing 90 Reserved matters 375851 389924 Near Certain 1193 Stamford brook - phase 2/3,sinderland brook (part) hou4) Housing 380 Reserved matters pp 375783 390179 Near Certain

1468 Land at ripon crescent,brompton road Housing 80 Full planning permission 377865 395193 Near Certain

CS H1 Pomona island Housing 800 381729 396646 Near Certain

CS H2 Trafford wharfside Housing 900 380483 396817 Near Certain CS H3 Lccc Housing 400 None 380928 395685 Near Certain

CS H4 Trafford centre rectangle Housing 1050 None 376205 397260 Near Certain

CS H5 Carrington Housing 1560 373184 392392 Near Certain

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Technical Note

Appendix B1 Plots of 2017 ‘Core’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council)

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Appendix B2 Plots of 2017 ‘Optimistic’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council

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Appendix B3 Plots of 2017 ‘Pessimistic’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council

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Appendix B4 Plots of 2032 ‘Core’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council

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Appendix B5 Plots of 2032 ‘Optimistic’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council

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Appendix B6 Plots of 2032 ‘Pessimistic’ Developments

(For: Cheshire East Council Manchester City Council Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Trafford Council High Peak Borough Council

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Appendix C 2032 ‘Core’ Scenario Trip Rates

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2032 Core Scenario Cheshire East Council

Average All Day Trip th 85 % All Day Trip rate Uncertainty Dwellings/Floorspa Rate Reference Site Type Location Description by ce (sqm) Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures 2032

Tytherington Business Large greenfield site allocated in Springwood Way, Circa 28,000 sqm 2 Park remaining plots on Employment Local Plan. High quality business 2413 2400 4286 3963 Near certain Macclesfield B1a remaining phases 1 & 2 park principally for B1 uses. Allocated for B1/B2/B8 but Potential circa constrained by access. New Parkgate Industrial Estate Haig Road / Mobberley 9 Employment 30,000 sqm access from Mobberley Road now 2585 2572 4592 4267 Near certain extension Road, Knutsford industrial and office in place but requires a tunnel under railway to connect the site Additional allocation for B1/B2/B8 Additional expansion land Haig Road / Mobberley 32,762 sqm to help overcome viability issues More than 10 at Parkgate Industrial Employment 2823 2808 5014 4660 Road, Knutsford industrial and office associated with cost of new likely Estate access to Parkgate extension Edge of centre redevelopment 13 Knutsford Supermarket Retail Brook Street, Knutsford 1,560 sqm food retail 1797 1800 2728 2271 Near certain site 67 dwellings, 75-bed Macclesfield District Cumberland Street, care home, 550 sqm 14 General Hospital Blue Housing Surplus hospital land 1812 1842 2964 2956 Near certain Macclesfield retail and 3,600 sqm Zone office block 24 Ingersley Vale Housing Bollington 66 dwellings Underused industrial site 285 300 454 445 Near certain Land near former Old Chestergate, 26 Employment 576sqm A1 Brownfield town centre site 734 736 1204 1269 Near certain Kings Head PH Macclesfield Lyme Green Retail Park, 3179sqm gross, Brownfield out of centre retail park 27 Unit 8 Retail 1938 1942 2943 2917 Near certain Macclesfield 1683sqm net A1 unit Lyme Green Retail Park, Brownfield out of centre retail park 28 Curry's Ltd Retail 560sqm A1 645 646 979 971 Near certain Macclesfield unit Lyme Green Retail Park, 1352sqm gross, 720 Brownfield out of centre retail park 29 Unit 6 Retail 829 831 1259 1248 Near certain Macclesfield sqm net A1 unit Alderley House, Alderley 30 AstraZeneca Employment 6256 gross Erection of research building 539 536 958 890 Near certain Edge Demolition of existing buildings Haig Road / Mobberley 2380 gross / 1180 31 IFE Services Ltd Employment and erection of two new office 109 115 176 160 Near certain Road, Knutsford net buildings Erection of two new buildings 32 Land at Mottram Way Employment Macclesfield 1903 gross / 654 net (phase 3) comprising six single 60 64 98 89 Near certain storey units Erection of two storey office building (b1) and five industrial London Road South, 33 Rupert House Employment 2522 storage and distribution units 232 246 377 342 Near certain Poynton (b2/b8) with associated parking and turning areas. Demolition of existing buildings and erection of three-storey office 34 22-24 Manchester Road Employment Wilmslow 1005 gross / 732 net 67 71 109 99 Near certain building incorporating car parking and alterations to access Erection of three storey extension for b1 office purposes and 35 Wycliffe House Employment Water Lane, Wilmslow 1520 140 148 227 206 Near certain provision of additional decked car parking accommodation

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2032 Core Scenario High Peak

Average All Day Trip th 85 % All Day Trip rate Uncertainty Dwellings/Floorspace Rate Reference Site Type Location Description by (sqm) Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures 2032

Site requires development of H2 Dale Lane Housing Buxton 221 Fairfield Link Road which is 955 1004 1520 1491 Near certain

likely to delay the scheme H6 Charlestown Works Housing Glossop 100 SHLAA site on industrial land 432 454 688 674 Near certain H7 Forge Works Housing Chinley 200 SHLAA site on industrial land 864 908 1375 1349 Near certain

Employm Extension to existing E1 Morrisons extension Buxton 1253 1443 1446 2191 2172 Near certain ent/Retail supermarket

Employm Extension to existing E4 Tesco Whaley Bridge 1249 1439 1441 2184 2165 Near certain ent/Retail supermarket Supermarket – 1921 Mixed-use scheme including Employm E5 Howard Town Mill Glossop Mixed A1 non-food, A3 A1 (food and non-food), A3 3454 3376 3360 3329 Near certain ent/Retail and A4 - 2517 and A4. Proposed chill store Employm extension, pallet storage, E6 Staden Lane Buxton B8 - 1168 6 6 6 6 Near certain ent/Retail office, canteen & staff facilities Employm Extension to the NE corner of E7 Dinting Lodge Glossop B2 – 12,160 507 516 693 711 Near certain ent/Retail the main industrial building Employm Construction of bottling plant E8 Waterswallows Road Buxton B2 – 23,865 995 1012 1361 1396 Near certain ent/Retail and warehousing

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2032 Core Scenario Manchester City

Average All Day Trip Rate 85th% All Day Trip rate Net Increase in Area / Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Number of dwellings 2032 Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures

H1 Sites at former Withington Hospital, West Didsbury Housing 299 1439 1358 2056 2017 Near Certain

H2 Former City College Site, Moor Road, Brooklands Housing 50 216 227 344 337 Near Certain

14 house, 135 H3 Styal Road, Woodhouse Park Housing 419 484 596 682 Near Certain apartments

H4 Wastdale Road, Baguley Housing 67 290 304 461 452 Near Certain

H5 Portway/Petheridge Drive, Woodhouse Park Housing 88 605 594 605 594 Near Certain

H8 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 294 309 468 459 Near Certain

East of Rowlandsway, Sharton Housing H9 90 Near Certain

H10 Tuffley Road, Rodborough Road Housing 68 294 309 468 459 Near Certain

E9 New Town Centre Bus Station at Wythenshawe Hospital Employment/Retail 0.540338 ha 498 526 807 733 Near Certain

3,120sqm of office planning permission on 0.39ha at E11 Employment/Retail 3,120 sqm / 0.39 ha 287 304 466 423 Near Certain Cedars, Wythenshawe 20,169sqm on 3.04ha site at Didsbury Point, Princess E13 Employment/Retail 20,169 sqm / 3.04 ha 1858 1964 3013 2736 Near certain Road Etrop Court 2 shops, 6206sqm on 0.94ha office B1 E15 (District offices for the Local authority) at Rowlandsway, Employment/Retail 6206 sqm / 0.94 ha 572 604 927 842 Near Certain Wythenshawe E16 Private Hospital @ Didsbusry Point Employment/Retail 15,500m2 1509 1461 2546 2319 Near Certain

E17 New Bus Garage, Stage Coach @ Longley Lane Employment/Retail 4385 / 1.75 ha 404 427 655 595 Near Certain

E18 Recycling Centre rebuild@ Longley Lane Employment/Retail 7064m2 651 688 1055 958 Near Certain

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2032 Core Scenario Stockport

Average All Day Trip th 85 % All Day Trip rate Uncertainty Site Rate Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Description by Area Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures 2032 Major office development site with a number of consents and outline Cheadle Royal Business 11,000sqm B1 E1 Cheadle Royal Employment 2.84Ha permission. Figure includes all land 1014 1071 1643 1492 Near certain Park, Cheadle office still available for development, with estimated floorspace Higher Bury Street, 574sqm B1 E2 Green Lane Industrial Area Employment 0.6Ha 53 56 86 78 Near certain Stockport office Office development at vacant site Travis Perkins, Lime E3 Cheadle District Centre Employment 1011sqm B8 0.51Ha 5 5 5 5 Near certain Grove, Cheadle Redevelopment of existing site Development of a number of B2 Former Thomas Storey 19888sqm E4 Employment Tiviot Way, Stockport 6.6Ha and B8 units vacant employment 830 844 1134 1164 Near certain Site B2/B8 site Pepper Road, Hazel 500sqm light More than E5 Land at Pepper Road Employment 1.01Ha Development of light industrial unit 40 40 54 55 Grove industrial likely

Thales, Ashurst Drive, 3345sqm B1 More than E6 Lawnhurst Business Park Employment 0.87Ha Office extension at existing use 326 315 549 500 Cheadle Heath office likely

12555sqm B1 Permission for a number of units in E7 Kings Vallley Employment Yew Street, Stockport 2.54Ha 1157 1223 1876 1703 Near certain office an allocated site close to M60 Jct.1

Battersea Road Business Battersea Road, Heaton 4479sqm B1 E9 Employment 1.24Ha Office development at vacant site 413 436 669 608 Near certain Park Mersey office Major focus for future office development in borough over a 65000sqm B1 number of sites in the town centre. More than E11 Stockport Town Centre Employment Town Centre Area 13106 13008 21250 19908 office Estimated floorspace. likely (Easting/Northing given is for one particular site in the town centre). A number of different sites in this large employment area have potential for (re)development. This 22500sqm is an estimated total area and More than E12 Bredbury Parkway Employment 7Ha 938 954 1283 1317 B2/B8 floorspace for what will primarily be likely B2 and B8 uses. (Easting/Northing given is for one particular site in the employment area). Conversion and extension to existing mills to provide 383 units and 88 units in new 6 storey block - Site of New Mill, 471 in total. Phase I complete (180 H1 Housing Reddish 291 2.77 772 906 1076 1267 Near certain Houldsworth Street flats) - hence no. of units given is 291. Phase II (123) started but has stalled. Phases III and IV may be scaled back. Application granted Oct 2010 for demolition of vacant foundry and 104, 106 Cross Lane and H2 Housing Marple 79 1.93 ancillary buildings and 341 359 543 533 Near certain Park and Paterson Ltd redevelopment of site for 79 dwellings.

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Average All Day Trip th 85 % All Day Trip rate Uncertainty Site Rate Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Description by Area Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures 2032

H3 Goyt Works, Station Road Housing Strines 96 2.5 Redevelopment to provide 96 415 436 660 647 Near certain houses and 2 employment units. Allocated housing site reclaimed using derelict land grant. New road Site A - Phase 2 (Former H4 Housing Bridgehall 150 4.9 access created and the site is now 648 681 1032 1012 Near certain Bridgehall Sidings) ready for redevelopment after being regraded and levelled. Development of landfill site - 163 managed flats comprising one 3/4 storey and four 3 storey blocks of Land at Midland Rd / H5 Housing Bramhall 163 5 flats (139 x 2 bed units - 30 AH) & 432 508 603 710 Near certain Geneva Rd one 3 storey block of 24 sheltered flats for elderly persons (15 x 2 bed and 9 x 1 bed). Conversion of vacant hospital Former Barnes Hospital, buildings to create 42 flats and H6 Housing Cheadle 128 3.8 523 556 823 820 Near certain Kingsway erection of 18 town houses and 68 flats. The Planning Brief for this Major Existing Developed Site in the Green Belt lists housing as an Compstall Mills, Andrew H7 Housing Compstall 121 1.55 acceptable use. Application 321 377 448 527 Near certain Street submitted 22/6/09 for mixed use development including 121 residential units. Outline application granted 20/04/2010 for mixed-use Hollands Mill site, 61a - 63 H8 Housing Town Centre 112 0.752 development of vacant site 297 349 414 488 Near certain Shaw Heath providing up to 112 residential units. Planning permission granted Mar 2010 for a total of 90 units and 2 H9 Hopes Carr Phase 1 Housing Town Centre 90 1.2 retail units in line with approved 180 209 310 337 Near certain masterplan for wider Covent Garden area. Former secondary school converted to Council offices, training centre, leisure centre and library. Major repairs needed in Dialstone Centre, Lisburne H12 Housing Offerton 90 3.5 medium term. Site has been 389 409 619 607 Near certain Lane marketed for disposal though may need to accommodate some of the existing uses on the redeveloped site. Masterplan for wider Covent Garden area approved Dec 09 with indicative total of 270 additional Hopes Carr Phase 2 / More than H13 Housing Town Centre 120 2.64 units including development of this 519 545 825 809 Covent Garden sites likely car park / vacant site and refurbishment of existing flats. See also site 247 in particular. Oakwood Mills, Oakwood Site put forward during SHLAA Call More than H15 Housing Romiley 150 4.3 389 409 847 868 Road for Sites exercise. Used scheme likely

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Average All Day Trip th 85 % All Day Trip rate Uncertainty Site Rate Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Description by Area Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures 2032 submitted during UDP review to estimate capacity. 90 houses and 60 flats in 4 three storey blocks (5 flats on each floor). College intends to sell the site following the redevelopment of Stockport College Heaton Town Centre campus. The site is H16 Moor Campus, Housing Heaton Moor 80 2.33 346 363 550 540 Near certain within a predominantly residential Buckingham Rd area and is regarded as suitable for housing development. Bus depot in use. Adjoining warehouse largely vacant. Unlikely that works/warehouse part of site Bus depot and adjacent will be development without bus More than H24 Housing Heaviley 75 1.87 199 234 277 326 works buildings, Charles St depot. More likely and desirable if likely comprehensive development takes place but then has to be regarded as a long term site. Demolition of existing buildings, mixed employment and residential MAN Diesel & Turbo UK development comprising B2/B8 H25 Housing Hazel Grove 203 6 877 922 1396 1369 Near certain Ltd, Mirlees Drive move-on units and up to 203 dwellings (183 houses and 20 flats). A nursery and vacant former Former Cherry Tree H26 Housing Great Moor 75 2.15 hospital site identified as surplus to 324 341 516 506 Near certain Hospital, Cherry Tree Ln requirements by Stockport PCT. The school is due to close in August 2012. It is a Major Existing Developed Site (MEDS) in the Green Belt, attached Offerton High School, The More than H27 Housing Offerton 75 2.5 to the urban area, and occupies a 324 341 516 506 Fairway likely prominent position adjoining the Goyt Valley. Redevelopment of the site is to be in accordance with a brief agreed by the Council. A former 533sq m gross Woolworths (A1 use) with 202 sq m 553sqm A1 use, R1 32 Woodford Road Retail Bramhall 0.03 upper floor offices; ground floor 86 82 83 75 Complete 202sqm A3 use changed use to a restaurant (A3 use). 636sqm gross Change use of ground floor from a R2 91 Lower Hillgate Retail Stockport 509sqm net A1 0.06 648 651 153 121 Complete restaurant to office/showroom use Change use of existing building 2286sqm gross from B8 (Warehouse) to D2 Former Remploy Site, D2 use and R3 Retail Heaton Chapel 0.4ha (Leisure) and B1 (offices), external 30 32 49 44 Complete Broadstone Road 326sqm B1 alterations and provision of parking office use facilities New mixed use hotel development Town Centre, Former More than R4 Retail Piccadilly SK1 3DY 6882sqm 0.179ha inc. Conference facilities, leisure 484 450 648 635 Greenhale House likely suite and associated parking

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Average All Day Trip th 85 % All Day Trip rate Uncertainty Site Rate Reference Site Type Location Floorspace Description by Area Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures 2032 Mixed use development comprising Town Centre, Former More than R5 Retail Piccadilly SK1 3DY 664sqm 0.172ha 155 residential units and 2 846 849 1388 1453 Greenhale House likely commercial units Town Centre, Unit 3 Peel 936sqm gross R7 Retail Great Portwood Street 0.094ha Installation of mezzanine floor 1192 1196 1956 2063 Near certain Centre A1 use Conversion of the Rock Buildings Town Centre, Rock and demolition and new build of More than R9 Retail Stockport 2254sqm 0.14ha 158 147 212 208 Buildings, Mersey Square previous extensions/outbuildings to likely form an 81 bedroom hotel Demolition of existing buildings and 1603sqm gross; regeneration of the site to provide a R10 Offerton Shopping Precinct Retail Offerton 1239sqm A1, 0.652ha 1667 1669 2749 2856 Near certain neighbourhood food store, retail 210sqm A3 unit, pharmacy and restaurant Two storey class A1 non-food retail/class D2 leisure development, More than R11 M60 Gateway Retail Land at Water Street 5574sqm gross 1.1ha 7079 7125 11649 12283 with associated parking and likely ancillary facilities 2860sqm A1 Mixed use (non-food retail and More than R12 M60 Gateway Retail Land at Water Street and 3150sqm 1.2ha 3864 3862 5977 6302 hotel) likely hotel Town Centre Hollands Mill R13 Retail 61A-63 Shaw Heath 500sqm gross 0.84ha A1, A2, A3, A4 or A5 use 637 639 1045 1102 Near Certain Site Demolition of warehouse and Micro Direct, Weybrook 1448sqm gross, erection of a food store with R14 Retail Heaton Chapel 0.69ha 1261 1266 2069 2182 Near certain Road 990sqm net associated access car parking and landscaping Reconfiguration and extension of Lancashire Hill, Halfords existing retail unit and Manchester Road, 1773sqm gross, R15 Unit, Manchester Road Retail 0.896ha improvements to the car parking 1806 1813 2963 3125 Near certain Stockport 1418sqm net Retail Park layout, internal access road and service vehicle access point Relocation and expansion of J Sainsbury's. Proposes 6551sq m 14,629sqm net A1 use floorspace supermarket gross external at Knightsbridge and closure of R19 Town Centre J Sainsbury's Retail Stockport area. Including 3.79ha existing 2,599sq m net Sainsburys 7545 7560 11457 11354 Near Certain 6551sqm net supermarket at Warren Street sales area which would then be likely to be redeveloped/occupied by a comparison goods retailer

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2032 Core Scenario Trafford

Average All Day Trip Rate 85th% All Day Trip rate Floorspace (sqm) / Uncertainty by Reference Site Type Dwellings 2032 Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures

10049 Stamford Centre Employment/Retail 1660 153 162 248 225 Near Certain

10133 Altair Site Employment/Retail 8471 781 825 1266 1149 Near Certain

10055 Jarvis House Employment/Retail 735 68 72 116 100 Near Certain

32133 Partington Wharfside Employment/Retail 24047 2216 2342 3593 3262 Near Certain 60030 Trafford Town Hall Employment/Retail 11019 1015 1073 1646 1495 Near Certain

1177 Stamford brook,sinderland brook (part hou4) Housing 90 389 409 619 607 Near Certain Stamford brook - phase 2/3,sinderland brook (part) 1193 Housing 380 1642 1726 2613 2563 Near Certain hou4) 1468 Land at ripon crescent,brompton road Housing 80 346 363 550 540 Near Certain CS H1 Pomona island Housing 800 3457 3634 5502 5396 Near Certain

CS H2 Trafford wharfside Housing 900 3889 4088 6189 6070 Near Certain

CS H3 Lccc Housing 400 1728 1817 2751 2698 Near Certain CS H4 Trafford centre rectangle Housing 1050 4537 4769 7221 7082 Near Certain

CS H5 Carrington Housing 1560 6741 7086 10728 10522 Near Certain

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2032 Core Scenario Cheshire East Council

Appendix D Highway & Public Transport Infrastructure Improvements

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SEMMMS

2017 & 2032 Core Scenarios

Highway 2017 2032 A556 Knutsford to Bowdon Improvement A556 Knutsford to Bowdon Improvement M60 Junction 12-15 Widening M60 Junction 12-15 Widening Blue Works (M56 Junction 6) Blue Works (M56 Junction 6) Pale Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Cargo Centre) Pale Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Cargo Centre) Dark Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Thorley Lane) Dark Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Thorley Lane) Poynton Town Centre Enhancements Red Works (M56 Junction 5-6 Widening) Alderley Edge Bypass Poynton Town Centre Enhancements Western Gateway Infrastructure Scheme (WGIS) Full Alderley Edge Bypass

Public Transport 2017 2032 Metrolink: Chorlton to East Didsbury Metrolink: Chorlton to East Didsbury Metrolink: Droylsden to Ashton Metrolink: Droylsden to Ashton Leigh-Salford-Manchester Busway Leigh-Salford-Manchester Busway Airport and 2CC - Metrolink Airport and 2CC - Metrolink Altrincham Interchange Altrincham Interchange Elements of Cross City Bus Package Elements of Cross City Bus Package

2017 & 2032 Optimistic Scenarios

Highway 2017 2032 A556 Knutsford to Bowdon Improvement A556 Knutsford to Bowdon Improvement M60 Junction 12-15 Widening M60 Junction 12-15 Widening Blue Works (M56 Junction 6) Blue Works (M56 Junction 6) Pale Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Cargo Centre) Pale Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Cargo Centre) Dark Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Thorley Lane) Dark Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Thorley Lane) Poynton Town Centre Enhancements Red Works (M56 Junction 5-6 Widening) Alderley Edge Bypass Poynton Town Centre Enhancements Western Gateway Infrastructure Scheme (WGIS) Full Alderley Edge Bypass

Public Transport 2017 2032 Metrolink: Chorlton to East Didsbury Metrolink: Chorlton to East Didsbury Metrolink: Droylsden to Ashton Metrolink: Droylsden to Ashton Leigh-Salford-Manchester Busway Leigh-Salford-Manchester Busway Airport and 2CC - Metrolink Airport and 2CC - Metrolink Altrincham Interchange Altrincham Interchange Elements of Cross City Bus Package Elements of Cross City Bus Package

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SEMMMS

2017 & 2032 Pessimistic Scenarios

Highway 2017 2032 Poynton Town Centre Enhancements Poynton Town Centre Enhancements Alderley Edge Bypass Alderley Edge Bypass Blue Works (M56 Junction 6) Blue Works (M56 Junction 6) Pale Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Cargo Centre) Pale Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Cargo Centre) Dark Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Thorley Lane) Dark Yellow Works (Runger Lane/Thorley Lane) Red Works (M56 Junction 5-6 Widening)

Public Transport 2017 2032 Metrolink: Chorlton to East Didsbury Metrolink: Chorlton to East Didsbury Metrolink: Droylsden to Ashton Metrolink: Droylsden to Ashton Airport and 2CC - Metrolink Airport and 2CC - Metrolink Altrincham Interchange

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SEMMMS

Appendix E Manchester Airport Modelling

Assumptions Note

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Greater Manchester Transportation Unit SEMMMS (A6 to Manchester Airport) Relief Road April 2010 DRAFT SEMMMS Uncertainty Log v6.doc

Client SEMMMS Client Board

Project SEMMMS (A6 to Manchester Airport) Relief Road Subject Modelling of Manchester Airport – Forecasting Assumptions

This note outlines the assumptions to be made in modelling Manchester Airport in the SEMMMS7 SATURN Model and SEMMMS VDM.

This Note 2023-00-B33v0.5-Manchester Airport Assumptions.doc Originator David Nixon Check / Version Comments Date Approve v0.2 Second Draft 100428 DN v0.3 Third Draft – Revised to incl MVA feedback 100430 DN v0.4 Final – Incorporating changes to modal split, freight & highway scheme sections 100506 DN v0.5 Final – Amendments to paragraph 5.7 and Table 2 100506 DN v0.6 TM amendments to add caveats 100507 TM v0.7 RK / GM amendments after MAG Comments 100607 RK

Contact GMTU: E-mail Tel: (815 internal) David Nixon [email protected] +44 (0) 161 455 2057

Issued Organisation FAO 100428 Atkins/MVA Robin Kimber, Pete Kidd – v0.2 Draft for comment 100430 SW/Atkins/MVA Graham Martin, Robin Kimber, Pete Kidd, N Benbow – v0.3 for review 100506 SW/Atkins/MVA Graham Martin (for onward circulation), Robin Kimber, Pete Kidd – v0.4 100506 SW/Atkins/MVA Graham Martin (for onward circulation), Robin Kimber, Pete Kidd – v0.5

GMTU has prepared this document for the titled project or named part thereof. It should not be used or relied upon for any other purpose without prior written authority from GMTU and without an independent check of its suitability. GMTU accepts no responsibility or liability for the consequence of using this document for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned.

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SEMMMS (A6 to Manchester Airport) Relief Road Modelling of Manchester Airport – Forecasting Assumptions Introduction GMTU and MVA have been commissioned by the SEMMMS Client Board to develop a SATURN traffic model (SEMMMS7B) and a Variable Demand Model (SEMMMS VDM) respectively to inform the appraisal of the proposed SEMMMS (A6 to Manchester Airport Relief Road.) Both models require significant data inputs, a number of which relate specifically to Manchester Airport. In September 2009, GMTU officers met representatives of Manchester Airport Group (MAG) and AECOM to discuss the information that GMTU considered necessary to adequately represent Manchester Airport in the SEMMMS transport models. At the time of these original meetings the opening and design years for the SEMMMS project was 2015 and 2030 respectively. Due to the time elapsed and the likely timetable for submission of the project the SEMMMS board have changed the opening and design year horizons to 2017 and 2032 respectively. Subsequent meetings between the MAG, their consultants AECOM, and the modelling team represented by GMTU and Atkins which have sought to determine an “evidence base” for the Airport that would support modelling work for 2009, 2015 (SEMMMS opening year) and 2030 (SEMMMS design year) horizons. Based on the discussions at those meetings, this note sets out the assumptions to be applied to represent the Airport and associated developments in 2015 and 2030, Data Inputs SEMMMS VDM will be used to determine future horizon overall levels of trip making by available travel modes. The model needs transport supply (infrastructure, frequencies etc) and demand (jobs and population) data, and information on respective travel costs. SEMMMS7B SATURN provides the highway network infrastructure information and determines route choice and highway travel costs based on the highway travel demand under set scenarios, which in turn is derived iteratively by SEMMMS VDM. SEMMMS VDM also refers to Public Transport (PT) costs derived from a further, PT, model that completes the modelling suite. SEMMMS VDM determines travel mode splits derived via the highway and PT models and provides demand forecasts that feed back into them in order to iteratively identify balanced costs across the transport system. Key inputs to SEMMMS VDM aside from network costs are information on current and envisaged land use, development and employment. Key inputs to SEMMMS7B SATURN are the future topology of the network, its capacity, and traffic loading points (i.e. locations where traffic may be entering or leaving the network). The two models operate on a zonal basis, with SEMMMSVDM using aggregations of SEMMS7B SATTURN model zones away from the schemes area of influence (AOI) and one-to-one correlations in the AOI , including the airport and its environs. In order to meet Department for Transport requirements there is a need to develop: • A core (most likely) scenario • A pessimistic scenario • An optimistic scenario.

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This means that a range of development and (possibly) infrastructure options will need to be identified. From the viewpoint of Manchester Airport, the key data required for modelling is that relating to future passenger and employee numbers, as these will have the biggest impact on trip making. However, there are a number of other issues relating to the Airport that will impact on one or both of the models. The key assumptions relating to Manchester Airport are set out below. 2. Passenger Growth

Following discussions with MAG and their traffic consultants AECOM, it has been agreed that the future Airport passenger growth assumed for SEMMMS purposes will be as per the

Department For Transport’s UK Air Passenger and CO2 Forecasts 2009 published on 15 January 2010 (and as amended by DfT on 17 March 2010). The UK Air Passenger Forecasts forecast airport passenger numbers under three scenarios; providing low, central and high forecasts. The central forecasts take account of forecast changes in GDP, air fares (and through these, fuel and non-fuel costs) and “market maturity”. The low and high forecasts are based on a range of sensitivity tests relating to variations in GDP, oil prices, air passenger duty and non-fuel costs, and the impacts of emission standards. The projections for Manchester Airport are shown in Table 1 below. The central forecast will be used as the basis of the SEMMMS core forecasts. Low and high passenger forecasts will be applied in the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios respectively. Table 1 UK Air Passenger Forecast Projections for Manchester Airport (Millions of Passengers per Annum) Year Low Central High (Pessimistic) (Core) (Optimistic) 2005 20 20 20 2015 30 30 30 2030 40 45 45 Notes: Source: UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, Department for Transport, January 2010, Table F1

Airport Employee Growth For modelling purposes we would ideally wish to know the number of person trips generated by workers at Manchester Airport in each of the forecast years and modelled time periods (0800- 0900, an average interpeak hour between 1000 and 1500, and 1700-1800). However, these are understandably difficult figures to determine. In previous demand modelling work in Greater Manchester (using GMSPM2), the ratio of Airport site employees to passenger throughput has been assumed to remain unchanged from 2006 e.g. if passenger throughput doubles, Airport employees double. In the absence of more detailed information, and following discussion with MAG, this assumption will be adopted for SEMMMS forecasting.

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Commercial Development Adjacent to Manchester Airport - Airport City and Manchester Business Park An additional 5,000 jobs were assumed in GMSPM2 to reflect the development of the 'Airport City' site over the next 10-15 years. This figure was based on the planning consents for what were historically known as the Burford and Arlington development sites to the north of Manchester Airport. The Burford site, which is now the proposed site of Airport City, was granted outline planning permission by MCC on April 2006 for the development of 50,000 square metres of office /business park (B1) type development. The Arlington site, now under the control of Goodmans, has permission for 62,700 square metres of office/business park (B1) type development. This site is currently being developed as individual plots. MAG is currently undertaking research into the feasibility of various development mixes for the Airport City site. However, while it is possible that the development eventually undertaken will be mixed use rather than entirely B1, until the feasibility work is completed the precise mix will remain uncertain. Given the uncertainty regarding the nature of future development it will be assumed that the development assumptions for the Airport City/Burford and Arlington/Goodmans sites will be as per the current permissions. Table 2 shows the assumed levels of development and employment at the two development sites in 2009, 2015 and 2030. The employment estimates are based on data from business park and office developments on the TRICS Traffic Generation Database. For the SEMMMS modelling, core pessimistic and optimistic scenarios have been identified. The scenarios assume: • For Airport City (Burford), that the site is fully developed and occupied by 2030; development/occupation by 2015 is assumed to be 50%, 25% and 75% under core, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios respectively • For Arlington/Goodmans, that the site is fully developed by 2030; development/occupation by 2015 is assumed to be 66%, 50% and 100% under core, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios respectively. These figures reflect the fact that about a quarter of the permitted floorspace is currently built and occupied (by Cuzzons, Regus and Ericcson).

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Table 2 Estimated Jobs on the Airport City and Goodmans Developments Airport City/Burford Goodmans Core Pessimistic Optimistic Core Pessimistic Optimistic Permitted 50,000 50,000 50,000 62,700 62,700 62,700 Floorspace (B1) Occupied 0 0 0 17,065 17,065 17,065 2009 Occupied 25,000 12,500 37,500 41,800 31,350 62,700 2015 Occupied 2030 50,000 50,000 50,000 62,700 62,700 62,700 Jobs 2009 0 0 0 806 806 806 Jobs 2015 1180 590 1770 1970 1480 2960 Jobs 2030 2360 2360 2360 2960 2960 2960

Commercial Development Adjacent to Manchester Airport – Davenport Green MAG has drawn attention to the potential development of the Davenport Green site to the west of the M56 but accessed by Thorley Lane/Runger Lane to the east of the motorway. This site is earmarked for a development of up to 93,000 square metres of B1 floorspace and until recently had outline planning consent for a first phase of 46,450 square metres. This permission has now lapsed and Trafford MBC (in whose area the site lies) is seeking to remove the B1 allocation from their LDF. A further issue in determining the future development of the Davenport Green site is that of Metrolink. Discussions with MCC confirm that the completion of the Wythenshawe Loop Metrolink extension was a key factor in making the Davenport Green site viable. However, plans for the western side of the loop, which would have served Davenport Green have now been dropped. In the light of the expiry of planning permission and the likely impact of the changes to Metrolink plans, we do not consider it necessary to incorporate Davenport Green in the core SEMMMS forecasts. However, as uncertainty does exist as to future of the site we will include the Davenport Green site within the SEMMMS Optimistic scenario.

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As with other developments the number of trips generated by the development and their modal split will be estimated within the VDM based on the number of jobs. Using the jobs/floorspace ratios determined from TRICS and used in the calculation of jobs at the Airport City and Goodmans sites we will assume: • 25% development/occupation of previously consented floorspace (11, 600 sq m) by 2015, creating 550 jobs • 100% development/occupation of previously consented floorspace (46,450 sq m) by 2030, creating 2,200 jobs. Derivation of Modal Split For most trips there are generally a choice of modes i.e. car, bus, heavy rail, Metrolink, cycle and walk. MAG has set a target of 40% of trips to and from Manchester Airport being by non-car modes. The Airport Masterplan states that this will be achieved by: • Promotion of public transport • Developing a mix of off site “park and ride” and on site parking • Discouraging “kiss and fly” and taxi use • Use of demand management techniques. The measures identified by MAG under these general headings are set out in the Airport’s Ground Transport Plan. The key measures are summarised below. Roads • Demand management of road traffic, focusing on reducing the number of vehicle trips per passenger; MAG have indicated that a key aspect of the demand management will be the introduction of a £5 access charge for vehicles entering the Airport area between 2015 and 2030. • Explore opportunities to develop dedicated high-occupancy vehicle or bus lanes on strategic airport approach roads • Use of technology to provide improved driver information, and the introduction of Active Traffic Management measures. Parking • Accommodate growth in short stay parking within the central terminal area • Discourage use of the car by employees through relocation of long stay staff spaces to the periphery of the Airport and incentive schemes • Develop strategic park and ride sites

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Rail • Complete the third rail platform at the interchange (now open) • Increase capacity on Transpennine routes through lengthening trains and improving frequencies • Add new services to the Midlands and North Wales • For the longer term, review the feasibility of new infrastructure in the Manchester Hub and support improvements, and work with Network Rail et al to develop a western rail link. Coach • Develop new coach links into under-served PT markets such as Merseyside, North Wales and Central and East Lancashire • Increase frequencies and reliability on existing routes; this is linked to the development of bus only lanes on key sections of the strategic road network. Bus

• Work with operators and GMPTE to improve service provision • Take full advantage of SEMMMS Quality Bus Corridor Improvements • Develop new demand responsive and early/late services • For the longer term, work to improve bus access to rail and tram stops with services to GM Metrolink

• Complete the Airport Metrolink Link. Walking and Cycling

• Improve local cycle routes, including the Airport Orbital Cycleway • Ensure provision of cycle parking facilities across the Airport. For previous strategic modelling in Greater Manchester, the modal split of trips to/from Manchester Airport has been derived within the demand model and reflected the supply and cost of the various alternative modes available to the trip maker. No attempt was made to impose the specific modal split targets set out in the Airport Masterplan and Ground Transport Plan. We will adopt the same approach for SEMMMS modelling. The modelling will seek to incorporate those measures outlined above which are clearly defined and that can be represented in the VDM and/or SATURN models. By far the most significant impacts on modal split will be those resulting from the proposed access charge and the completion of the Airport Metrolink line.

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Within SEMMMS VDM it will therefore be assumed that for core modelling: • A variety of Airport ‘demand management strategies’ will be implemented at a point between 2015 and 2030; this will also be modelled explicitly in the SATURN model at 2030 • Airport Metrolink is open by 2015; frequencies and interchange opportunities (e.g. in the City Centre) will be confirmed with GMPTE. Many of the other improvements referred to in the GTP and Need for Land – particularly those affecting heavy rail – are not yet defined sufficiently to permit modelling and/or are not yet committed. Similarly, although the Public Transport model being built as part of the SEMMMS VDM will be capable of modelling improvements to service provision/frequencies (bus and rail), to do so would require such changes to be clearly specified. The impact on modal split of such changes within the VDM is likely to be marginal. Freight Vehicle Movements The Cargo Centre located off Runger Lane is a significant generator of goods vehicle movements. However, many of these movements occur outside the normal traffic peak periods. MAG has plans to significantly expand floorspace for airlines, freight forwarders etc. However, the impact of these plans on freight vehicle movements is unclear. Discussions with the Airports traffic consultants, AECOM, suggest that there is little concrete information available on future growth in good vehicle movements. In consultation with AECOM, GMTU have examined traffic forecasts used for development of the layouts for the Blue and Yellow works some 4-5 years ago to determine the levels of growth assumed for the Cargo Centre. These forecasts were based on 2005 flows and projected forward to 2011. Traffic levels to and from the Cargo Centre are indicated to increase, of which Freight will contribute, especially for outbound movements during the morning peak and inbound movements during the evening peak. However, any increases in traffic are considered to be manageable as with the Blue and Yellow works in place, all traffic approaching from the ‘west side’ of the Airport will use the M56 junction 6, as does all of the T2 bound traffic from the M56 (from the West). In its “Need for Land” document MAG suggests that the land set aside for cargo use will increase by between 33% and 83% by 2030 (24 Ha to 32-44 Ha). The same document quotes floorspace figures of 79,617 sq m at 2013 and 120,000 sq m at 2030, an increase of 51%. However, the document suggests that a substantial amount of the growth will occur in the Oak Farm and Sun Bank Lane areas rather than on the existing Cargo Centre site. Given MAG’s wish to be as consistent as possible with the forecasts already produced for the Blue and Yellow Works, for the SEMMMS Central forecasts we will assume: • 49% and 45% growth in goods traffic to/from the Cargo Centre (zone 288) in 2015 AM and PM peak hours respectively • 49% growth in the 2015 interpeak goods traffic to/from the Cargo Centre (based on the AM peak outbound growth from the Blue/Yellow works forecasts i.e. the higher of the peak figures) • 51% growth in goods traffic to/from the Cargo Centre between 2015 and 2030 (all periods) in line with the Airport’s projected growth (2013 to 2030) in floor area; this will be a robust estimate as it will assume that the level of floor area growth is reflected directly in the growth of goods vehicle movements. For all other Airport zones, goods vehicle trips will be assumed to grow in line with NTM forecasts to 2015 and 2030.

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Car Parking “The Need for Land” outlines MAG’s future parking requirements in some detail. Based on an airport passenger throughput of 40 mppa in 2030, it is estimated that there will be a requirement for between 18,000 and 32,400 additional car park spaces for passenger use, and around 4,400 additional spaces for staff use. The precise requirements will clearly be based on the extent to which the modal shift from private car to public transport can be achieved. However, in addition to a requirement for additional spaces, there will be a need to relocate some car parking to facilitate the expansion of apron areas. This will particularly impact on the long stay car parks situated off Sydney Avenue (near Terminal 2) and Ringway Road (east of Terminal 3). Following discussion with MAG, for SEMMMS modelling we will assume that: • Long stay parking displaced from the Sydney Avenue area will be relocated to Oak Farm • Long stay parking displaced from the Ringway Road area will be relocated to land north of Ringway Road and east of Shadow Moss Road. Short stay parking within the central terminal area will be assumed to expand to meet demand. As suggested by MAG, privately run parking in the Moss Lane area (SATURN Zone 1080) will be assumed to remain at current levels (i.e. no growth will be assumed). Highway Schemes For Core modelling we will assume a number of committed or likely highway schemes in the vicinity of Manchester Airport, namely: • The “Rainbow Works” package of schemes (Blue, Yellow and Red works) • The proposed realignment of Ringway Road between Ringway Road West and Terminal 3 The “Rainbow Works” consist of: • The improvement of M56 Junction 6 (Blue Works) • The realignment and improvement of Runger Lane and Thorley Lane between M56 Junction 6 and Terminal 2 and improvements to the M56 westbound on-slip (Yellow Works), and • The improvement to dual-five lane standard of the M56 between Junctions 5 and 6 (Red Works). These can be regarded as committed schemes as they are requirements of the planning permission for Terminal 2 or Runway 2. MAG have advised that the Blue and Yellow works are now unlikely to be in place before 2017, based on current forecasts of passenger growth. However, given the uncertainty regarding the latter, we will assume that these schemes are open in 2015, the SEMMMS opening year. For the purposes of this modeling exercise, we have assumed that the Red works will be opened by 2020 and thus contained within the 2030 ‘Do-Minimum’ networks. The proposed realignment of Ringway Road is tied to the intention to expand the apron area around Terminal 3. This would require Ringway Road to be realigned to the north. We believe this to be a committed scheme. We will assume that this realignment is complete by 2015. The road will be assumed to be constructed to 7.3m wide, all-purpose single carriageway standard.

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In addition to the above, the original (lapsed) planning permission for the Davenport Green development incorporated conditions relating to capacity improvements on the M56 eastbound and westbound off-slips and improvements/changes to the operation of the Runger Lane/Thorley Lane junction. The improvements to the westbound off-slip are effectively covered by the Red Works. The improvements to the eastbound off-slip and Runger Lane/Thorley Lane junction will be incorporated (alongside the development) in the Optimistic scenario networks only.

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