SEASONAL BULLETIN for SERBIA Autumn 2020
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Republic Hydrometeorological service of Serbia Kneza Viseslava 66 11000 Belgrade Republic of Serbia SEASONAL BULLETIN FOR SERBIA Autumn 2020 Belgrade, December 15th 2020 Division for Climate Monitoring and Climate Forecast Department of National Center for Climate Change, Climate Model Development and Disaster Risk Assessment web: http://www.hidmet.gov.rs mail: [email protected] CONTENT Analysis of the autumn 2020 for Serbia relative to the 1981-2010 base period ........................ 2 Temperature ........................................................................................................................... 2 Heat waves ............................................................................................................................. 9 Precipitation ......................................................................................................................... 10 Cloud cover, bright and cloudy days .................................................................................... 14 Analysis of the autumn 2020 for Serbia relative to the 1961-1990 base period ...................... 17 Temperature ......................................................................................................................... 17 Precipitation ......................................................................................................................... 17 1 11th warmest autumn for Serbia in the period from 1951 up-to-date, 4th warmest for Kopaonik and Crni Vrh, 5th warmest for Negotin, 7th warmest for Valjevo, Pozega and Zlatibor. There were two heat waves, first one was observed in September across most of the country and the second one was registered at Kopaonik in November. Record-breaking number of fog days in Kragujevac and Nis. Analysis of the autumn 2020 for Serbia relative to the 1981- 2010 base period Temperature Mean autumn air temperature ranged from 11,1ºС in Pozega to 14,2ºС in Belgrade, and on the mountains from 6,5ºС at Kopaonik to 9,7ºС at Zlatibor (Figure 1). Figure 1. Spatial distribution of mean sasonal air Figure 2. Mean seasonal air temperature anomaly from temperature normal 2 Departure of the mean air temperature from the normal in autumn for the 1981-2010 base period ranged from 1,0ºC in Kursumlija to 2,2ºC in Negotin, 1,5ºC in Belgrade, and on the mountains from 1.2 ºC in Sjenica to 2.2 ºC at Crni Vrh (Figure 2). Based on the percentile method , mean autumn air temperature was in the categories of very warm and extremely warm in most of Serbia and warm category in some parts of the northern, western, central and southern Serbia (Figure 3). Based on the tercile method, mean autumn air temperature was in the warm category across entire Serbia (Figure 4). Figure 3. Spatial distribution of mean seasonal air Figure 4. Spatial distribution of mean seasonal air temperature according to the percentile method temperature according to the tercile method Autumn 2020 ranks as the 11th warmest for Serbia (Figure 5) with the mean seasonal air temperature of 12,1ºC. Autumn 2020 ranks as the 4th warmest for Kopaonik (Figure 6) and Crni Vrh, and 5th warmest for Negotin (Figure 7) since the record-keeping at these stations began. In Belgrade, it was 13th warmest with the mean autumn air temperature of 14,1ºC. 3 Figure 5. Rank of the warmest and coldest autumn seasons for Serbia for the 1951-2020 period, compared to the 1981-2010 normal Figure 6. Rank of the warmest autumn seasons on Kopaonik for the 1980-2020 period 4 Figure 7. Rank of the warmest autumn seasons for Negotin for the 1927-2020 period The highest autumn daily air temperature of 33,3ºC was observed in Cuprija on September 7. Tropical days1 were recorded only in the lowland and their number ranged from 2 days in Kursumlija to 15 days in Negotin. Belgrade observed 10 tropical days. In most of Serbia, the registered number of tropical days was above the average, up to 12 days above the average in Negotin, and 2 days below the average in Pozega. Number of summer days2 ranged from 21 days in Pozega to 31 days in Vranje, up to 4 days in the upland as well as in Sjenica. The recorded number of summer days was above the autumn average (Figure 8) in most of Serbia, up to 6 days above the average in Vranje, and 12 days above the average in Krusevac and Veliko Gradiste. Tropical nights3 were recorded in the following places: 5 nights in Belgrade , and one tropical night in Zrenjanin, Banatski Karlovac, Smederevska Palanka, Veliko Gradiste, Negotin, Kraljevo and Ćuprija. 1 Tropical day is defined as the day with the maximum air temperature of 30°С and above 2 Summer day is defined as the day with the maximum daily air temperature of 25°С and above 3 Tropical night is defined as the day with the minimum daily air temperature of 20°С and above 5 Figure 8. Deviation of the number of summer days Figure 9. Deviation of the number of frost days from from the normal the normal Number of frost days4 in the lowland ranged from 1 in Belgrade and Loznica to 18 in Kursumlija (which is one day above the average), on the mountains from 10 at Crni Vrh to 26 in Sjenica. The observed number of frost days was below the average in the entire country (Figure 9), ranging from 1 day below the average in Vranje to 10 days below the average in Pozega. As for the mountains, Sjenica observed 4 days below the average and Crni Vrh 13 days below the average. On November 30, Kopaonik saw one day with severe frost5, when the lowest air temperature of -10,0ºC was registered. Crni Vrh recorded 3 ice days 6 (5 days below the average), 2 at Zlatibor and Kopaonik (7 days below the average ) and 1 day in Leskovac, Požega and Sjenica. Mean, maximum and minimum air temperature in Belgrade were above the multiannual average most of autumn and below the average at the end of September, mid-October as well as beginning and end of November (Figure 10). 4 Frost day is defined as the day with the minimum daily air temperature below 0°С 5 Day with severe frost is defined as the day with the minimum daily air temperature below -10°С 6 Ice day is defined as the day with the maximum daily air temperature below 0°С 6 Figure 10. Three – month course of mean, maximum and minimum air temperature in Belgrade Assessment of the mean air temperature and precipitation sums (Figure 11) as well as minimum and maximum air temperature (Figure 12) for Serbia for the autumn season based on the tercile distribution relative to the 1981-2010 base period indicates that autumn 2020 was warm and dry. Based on the mean seasonal maximum and minimum air temperature, autumn was warm. Figure 11. Assessment of mean air temperature and precipitation sums for autumn in Serbia with the accompanying terciles compared to the 1981-2010 normal 7 Figure 12. Assessment of maximum and minimum air temperature for autumn in Serbia with the accompanying terciles compared to the 1981-2010 normal 8 Heat waves Serbia experienced two heat waves during autumn 2020 (Chart 1). The first heat wave that was observed in September affected the entire country whilst the second one was registered at Kopaonik. Heat wave that was recorded at the end of summer in Dimitrovgrad lasted until September 1. The most intense heat wave was registered in Negotin, with the total duration of 14 days. In the period from 9 to 17 September, heat wave was recorded in the northern parts of the country, Belgrade and Veliko Gradiste. In Smederevska Palanka, Ćuprija and Leskovcac it lasted from 10 to 14 September, and in Banatski Karlovac and Vranje from 10 to 17 September. Heat wave (duration of 7 days) was observed in Loznica from 11 to 17 September and in Valjevo from 12 to 17 September. Kopaonik observed heat wave lasting for 5 days, from 8 to 12 November. In autumn, Serbia didn’t experience any cold waves. Chart 1. HEAT WAVES INSERBIA - AUTUMN 2020 (reference period 1981-2010) S Е P Т Е M B E R О K ТО B E R N О V Е М B E R station/day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 PALIC VWVWEWEWVWEWEWEW SOMBOR VWEWVWEWEWVWEWVWEW KIKINDA VWVWVWEWEWEWEWVWEW ZRENJANIN VWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWEW NOVI SAD VWVWVW VT EWVWVWVWEW SR.MITROVICA VWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWVW BELGRADE VWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWEW LOZNICA VWVWVWVWVWVWVW VALJEVO VWVWVWVWVWVW V.GRADISTE VWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWEW SM.PALANKA VWVWVWVWVW KRAGUJEVAC VALJEVO POŽEGA ZLATIBOR CUPRIJA VWVWVWVWVW KRUSEVAC NEGOTIN VWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWVWVW ZAJECAR CRNI VRH KOPAONIK EWVWEWVWVW SJENICA NIS VRANJE VWVWVWVWVWVWVWVW DIMITROVGRAD EW LESKOVAC VWVWVWVWVW KURSUMLIJA B.KARLOVAC VWVWEWVWVWVWVWEW ЕW EXTREMELY WARM VW VERY WARM 9 Precipitation Autumn precipitation totals in most of Serbia were below the average relative to the normal for the 1981-2010 base period, ranging from 41% in Valjevo to 103% in Zrenjanin (Figure 13). Precipitation sums ranged from 78,5 mm in Valjevo to 227,9 mm at Kopaonik (Figure 14). Figure 13. Spatial distribution of seasonal precipitation Figure 14. Spatial distribution of seasonal sums in mm according to data from 28 precipitation sums in percentage of principal, 16 climatological and 45 rain gauge normal stations Based on the percentile method, autumn precipitation sums were in the very dry and dry category in most of Serbia and normal category in northern, parts of eastern and some parts of central and southern Serbia (Figure 15). Based on the tercile method, precipitation sums were below the average in most of Serbia apart from northern, parts of central and southern Serbia where they were within the average (Figure 16). Autumn 2020 ranks as the 18th driest for Serbia (Figure 17) and 7th driest for Valjevo (Figure 18), Zlatibor (Figure 19) and Pozega.