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“Strategic” Partnership No. 1252 February 17, 1999 THE WATERSHED IN U.S.RUSSIA RELATIONS: BEYOND STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP ARIEL COHEN, PH.D. The ascendancy of Prime Minister Evgeny President Clinton supported Yeltsin even when Primakov, former Foreign Minister and once head the war in Chechnya led to the deaths of 90,000 of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, in Russians, and when the government failed to pay Moscow should alarm Washington. Because of millions of Russians. Now President Boris Yeltsin’s ill health, Primakov is Primakov’s efforts to estab- acting as de facto president and is positioned to be Produced by lish a “strategic triangle” The Kathryn and Shelby a serious contender in the next presidential elec- with China and Iran to Cullom Davis International tions. His policies, supported by a communist– counterbalance America’s Studies Center nationalist majority in the legislature, are being superpower status, as well implemented by a cabinet that includes, as key as his opposition to U.S. Published by economic policymakers, leaders of the Communist efforts to rein in rogue The Heritage Foundation Party and former high-ranking Soviet officials. regimes in Iraq and Serbia, 214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E. Under Primakov, Moscow is reverting to a zero- are bringing President Washington, D.C. sum approach toward Washington that is more Clinton’s policy weaknesses 200024999 adversarial and reminiscent of Russia’s czarist and to a head. (202) 546-4400 Soviet roots. Yet Russia continues to demand U.S. support for economic assistance from the West. Russia is more economi- The Clinton Administration, which until cally desperate and politi- recently considered Russia policy the crown jewel cally unpredictable than at of its diplomacy, personalized its support of any time since the collapse Russian reforms by backing President Boris of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Yeltsin. Consequently, it overlooked serious flaws It has transformed its post- in Yeltsin’s policies. Important economic and polit- communist policies from those of an aspiring ally ical reforms that would promote the transition to of the West to those of an aspiring rival. Neither democracy and a free-market economy either were friend nor foe, Russia today often challenges U.S. not attempted or were badly bungled. Corruption leadership and policy, setting itself up as a poten- and mismanagement in attempts to privatize state tial—and sometimes real—counterbalance to enterprises were ignored. American influence. No. 1252 February 17, 1999 Russia is providing China with pivotal assis- should be linked to Russia’s actions on issues tance to modernize its strategic weapons systems, affecting U.S. security, interests, and values. is selling ballistic missile and nuclear technology to Iran, defends Saddam Hussein in the U.N. Specifically, the United States should: Security Council, and supports Slobodan • Recognize that Russia has abandoned its Milosevic on the issue of Kosovo. The Duma policy of strategic cooperation with the U.S. persists in rejecting the Strategic Arms Reduction and use all available leverage, including the Treaty II (START II) on nuclear weapons. And the denial of international economic assistance, to Russian government, with support from the Clin- encourage positive changes in Russian foreign ton Administration, clings to the terms of the 1972 and domestic policy. Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty between the former Soviet Union and the United States. The • Establish conditionality between debt resched- threat from Primakov’s policies became clearest uling and progress in Russia’s last October, when Russia conducted its first economic reforms and international activities. massive nuclear war games since the end of the Russia must demonstrate that it can behave Cold War. responsibly in the economic and security areas before the United States and the international In sum, Russia’s actions today are becoming community agree to reschedule its debt. more anti-American and anti-status quo. As House International Relations Committee Chairman • Focus assistance on technical advice and support if Russia proves to be cooperative. To Benjamin Gilman (R–NY) has observed, “Our integrate fully into the global community, policy toward Russia appears near collapse.” Russians need market-oriented, analytical, business, and legal skills. Businesses, universi- A watershed point in U.S.–Russia relations has ties, and nonprofit organizations should be been reached: The idealistic hope for a democratic encouraged to offer academic and professional Russia that has driven Administration policies training in Russia. Russia also needs help in must be reconsidered, and a new approach based building institutions of democracy and civil on realistic assessment of U.S. interests must be society. adopted. If the Administration does not address the threat to U.S. and global security that Russia’s • Conduct a bottom-up re-evaluation of U.S.– activities represent, America’s relations with Russia Russia policy through a congressionally will deteriorate. Containing or isolating Russia, appointed blue-ribbon panel that includes however, is not the solution. Despite Primakov’s former U.S. policymakers who have not been hostile policies, the Russian people are not Amer- involved in devising and conducting U.S. ica’s enemy. policy toward Russia in the past six years. The Administration must design a more effec- While Russia’s integration into the international community should remain an important goal of tive policy to keep Russia engaged, to demonstrate U.S.–Russia relations, Russia also must be encour- to its people that America cares about their future, aged to make the necessary changes to avoid its and to promote reforms that allow Russia to further decline. integrate into the international community. At the same time, U.S. assistance and cooperation should —Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst in be conditioned on Russia’s willingness to cooper- Russian and Eurasian Studies in The Kathryn and ate with America. U.S. support on such issues as Shelby Cullom Davis International Studies Center at the rescheduling of Russia’s massive foreign debt The Heritage Foundation. No. 1252 February 17, 1999 THE WATERSHED IN U.S.RUSSIA RELATIONS: BEYOND STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP ARIEL COHEN, PH.D. Today, Russia is both politically and economi- NATO intervention in Kosovo.4 President Boris cally unstable, and contributes more to the prolif- Yeltsin even threatened a world war should the eration of weapons of mass destruction than at United States use massive any point since 1992.1 Russia’s policies are more force against Saddam Hus- Produced by anti-Western than at any time since the rise of sein.5 The Clinton Admin- The Kathryn and Mikhail Gorbachev and the glasnost and pere- istration failed to respond Shelby Cullom Davis stroyka campaigns of the late 1980s,2 and its directly to these affronts to International Studies Center leaders are unwilling to coordinate their policies U.S. interests. with the United States despite massive and ongo- Published by ing support from the Clinton Administration.3 The ascendancy of the The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E. government led by Prime Washington, D.C. Now Moscow is flexing its military arm at the Minister Evgeny Primakov, 200024999 United States: Last October, Russia conducted its former Foreign Minister (202) 546-4400 first nuclear war games since the end of the Cold and once head of Russia’s http://www.heritage.org War, apparently to demonstrate its opposition to Foreign Intelligence 1. The risk of officials’ contributing to weapons proliferation was highlighted in 1995, when former head of the Russian National Security Council Oleg Lobov helped the Japanese sect Aum Shinrikye acquire Sarin gas manufacturing technology in order to produce chemical weapons in Russia in exchange for $79,000. See Vladimir Abarinov, “Pervyi smertnyi prigovor chlenu ‘Aum Senrikie,’” Izvestiya, October 24, 1998, p. 3. 2. “Russia Adrift, with ‘Moribund’ President, Bankrupt Government,” Foreign Media Research Reaction Daily Digest, United States Information Agency, October 28, 1998, pp. 3–6. 3. Paul A. Goble, “Russia Has Lost Its Way, With Our Help,” USA Today, September 2, 1998, p. A15. 4. J. Michael Waller, “As Moscow Asks Washington for Millions of Tons of Free Grain, It Practices a Nuclear Attack on the United States,” Russia Reform Monitor, American Foreign Policy Council, October 27, 1998, p. 1. The military exercise was also reported in Izvestya on October 7, 1998. 5. Charles Trueheart, “U.S. Flanks Covered in Latest Showdown,” The Washington Post, November 13, 1998, p. A38. No. 1252 February 17, 1999 Service, signals the failure of U.S.-supported free- part of Boris Yeltsin and his young reformers, as market and democratic reform efforts in Russia. well as the staunch resistance of former and Because of President Yeltsin’s ill health,6 Primakov current communists—the nomenklatura. But it also is acting as the de facto president and is positioned is due to strategic flaws in the Clinton Administra- to become a serious contender in the next presi- tion’s approach to Yeltsin and Russia,10 once one dential elections.7 His policies, which have of its foreign policy crown jewels. harmed U.S. interests in the past, are supported by The Administration chose to ignore the gap the communist-dominated legislature (the Duma) between its declarations of support for Yeltsin’s and will be implemented by a cabinet that leadership abilities and Yeltsin’s failures as a leader includes
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