Jody Wentzel Directorate Sustainable Resource Management Email: [email protected] tel: +27 21 808 7805 fax: +27 21 808 5370
Reference: 20/2/Drought Assessment Report - Western Cape (2018)
Annexure A: Drought assessment report for disaster relief funding for the drought-stricken areas of livestock and crop farming in the Western Cape Province – February 2018
1. AIM
To perform a technical and scientific assessment for the provision of emergency fodder relief within the drought-stricken areas of the Western Cape.
2. INTRODUCTION
Drought relief, in the form of fodder, is currently being provided to all qualifying farmers in the West Coast district , Cape Winelands district, Central Karoo district, parts of the Eden district and Overberg district. All these areas need assistance. The consequence of the current situation is that once the drought has been broken, farmers will have to build up their flocks, leading to negative cash flow for a considerable period of time.
If government does not intervene to further alleviate the situation, the dire impact of the drought will be felt for years to come, especially in the rural areas, where agriculture is the main generator of the economy. The socio-economic impact on farm workers would be significant should the agricultural activity in the Western Cape collapse.
Areas of the Central Karoo district and West Coast district municipality are in a critical drought situation. Livestock farmers are amongst the hardest hit by the drought. The impacts of the drought in the summer rainfall region on beef cattle herds, with high numbers of animals slaughtered and the supply subsequently becoming limited, has led to high meat prices. Similarly, the national sheep flock has reduced as a result of the drought. Livestock farmers in the Western Cape will unlikely benefit much from price increases since the ongoing drought continues to limit available grazing and feed production.
Within the wheat-growing region the wheat harvest has produced far below average and the landowners that utilize the wheat stubble and pasture crops (such as medics and lucerne which are produced in rotation with wheat) for livestock grazing– mostly sheep – will require further fodder relief. Due to low or no yields the biomass from remaining residues are low or non-existent so producers cannot effectively feed their animals through the dry summer without any form of bought-in fodder. Areas of the Western Cape (in particular the West Coast, Central Karoo and little Karoo) are in a critical drought situation.
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3. DROUGHT-ASSESSMENT PRIORITISATION COMMITTEE
3.1 COMMITTEE
The committee performed a verification assessment and the most critical areas/regions that require additional drought-relief assistance were identified.
Organisation Designation Name Department of Agriculture, Climate Change and Disaster Jackson Forestry and Fisheries Management Mokwatedi
Department of Agriculture, Climate Change and Disaster Solomon Matsa Forestry and Fisheries Management
Western Cape Department of Director: Sustainable Resource Ashia Petersen Agriculture Management Sustainable Resource Western Cape Department of Management: Disaster Risk Jody Wentzel Agriculture Management Research and Technology Western Cape Department of Nelmarié Development Services: Agriculture Saayman Rangeland Scientist Research and Technology Western Cape Department of Development Services: Risk Henk Cerfonteyn Agriculture Assessment Scientist Western Cape Department of Sustainable Resource Francis Steyn Agriculture Management: LandCare Western Cape Department of Sustainable Resource Stefan Theron Agriculture Management: LandCare Western Cape Department of Farmer Support Development Albertus Dyason Agriculture Western Cape Department of Sustainable Resource Jan Smit Agriculture Management: LandCare Western Cape Department of Sustainable Resource Johan van der Agriculture Management: LandCare Merwe Western Cape Disaster Directorate Disaster Operations: Ronelle Pieters Management Centre Disaster Recovery Central Karoo Disaster District Disaster Manager Hein Rust Management Centre JMStrauss Consulting: Risk Jeanne-Marié JMStrauss Consulting Consultant Strauss
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3.2 FARMER UNIONS
Inputs were also obtained from landowners and farmer union representatives. The following representatives of local farmer unions joined the committee or provided inputs for the assessment: District Area Name WEST COAST Panorama Piketberg Abrie Richter WEST COAST Waterboerskraal (Hopefield) Gideon Melck WEST COAST Meintjieskraal (Rooi Karoo) Jan Hendrick CENTRAL KAROO Laingsburg Christan van der Vyfer EDEN Oude Muragie Maggie Fourie EDEN DKBV Alie Briekwa EDEN Boetie Hutties Farm (Pty) LTD Jolian Du Preez EDEN Micro Farm Hendrik September EDEN DKBV Fernando van Staden EDEN DKBV Pedro Samson
3.3 ROUTE
Km/Day DATE ROUTE
Day 1 05- Elsenburg – Moorreesburg, Velddrif, Aurora, Piketberg, Ceres- 525km Feb-18 Karoo, Clanwilliam, Agterpakhuis – Vredendal
Day 2 06- Vredendal – Nuwerus, Bitterfontein, Rietpoort, Kliprand, Lutzville – 384km Feb-18 Vredendal (384 km)
Vredendal – Clanwilliam, Citrusdal, Prince Alfred Hamlet, Ceres- Day 3 07- Karoo, Touwsrivier, Matjiesfontein, Laingsburg, Koup, Merweville – 594km Feb-18 Prince Albert
Day 4 08- Prince Albert – Leeu-Gamka, Beaufort-West, De Rust, Dysseldorp, 455km Feb-18 Oudtshoorn, Calitzdorp – Ladismith
Day 5 09- Ladismith – Heidelberg, Suurbraak, Tesselaarsdal, Theewaterskloof 545km Feb-18 Dam, Villiersdorp, Franschhoek – Elsenburg
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4. PROCEDURE
The areas that were prioritised are summer and winter rainfall regions currently experiencing above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall.
The criteria that was used to determine this deviation, was as follows: Climate o Rainfall history (monthly precipitation records) o Seasonal rainfall distribution (NDVI and PASG)
Rangeland o Quality of grazing o Grazing capacity and production potential o Reserves available o Conservation status o Cover/trampling o Vegetation Conditions Index (VCI)
Livestock1 o Condition o Percentage stock reduction at the time of drought-evaluation o Dependence of livestock on planted pastures
Water1 o Water-table o Boreholes.
During the visit, the committee stopped at evaluation points (i.e. farms and natural fields) to assess the situation at ground level on the basis of the above-mentioned criteria. Discussions were held at each stop regarding indicator-species and background information was received from the extension officers and farmers in the area. Most of the evaluation points were assessed in previous years (points are documented with a GPS); which provides a baseline that indicates it the condition of the land has remained the same or deteriorated in the drought conditions. The farmers that we met in the various districts expressed their appreciation for the fodder assistance and indicated that they would not be able to sustain this drought without the drought support they are receiving from government.
5. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS
7.1 PASG: The Percentage of Average Seasonal Greenness (PASG) indicates how vegetation conditions for a specific period during the growing season compares to the historical average conditions. E.g. predominant green areas show normal photosynthetic conditions whereas orange and red areas show plant activity conditions indicating possible drought stricken areas. See the PASG map for January 2018 on page 13.
1Livestock and water was used as supportive information to the other criteria used.
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7.2 VCI: The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) compares the current NDVI to the range of values observed in the same period in previous years. The VCI is expressed in % and gives an idea where the observed value is situated between the extreme values (minimum and maximum) in the previous years. Lower and higher values indicate bad and good vegetation state conditions, respectively. This was the map preferred by the drought-relief prioritisation committee. See the VCI map on page 14.
7.3 NDVI: The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) provides a guideline to measure the current veld situation (whether it contains live green vegetation or not) and for monitoring and forecasting crop production. One of the main challenges with the NDVI however, is the fact that it is difficult to distinguish between over-grazing and poor veld condition because of drought. See the NDVI map on page 15.
7.4 Western Cape Provincial Drought Management Task Team Meetings: Regular meetings and the consolidation of information from various stakeholders provides for a current and comprehensive overview of the drought situation in the Western Cape Province.
7.5 Dam levels: This data is obtained from the National Department of Water and Sanitation. As far as possible, dam levels are updated on a weekly basis.
Table 1. Western Cape Dam levels on 2018-02-23rd
% 20th - 23rd % week before Dam % in 2017 February 2018 the 23rd
Cape Town System Dams Consist of : Wemmershoek-; Voëlvlei-; Steenbras Upper and Lower- ; Theewaterskloof Dam and Berg River Dam
Cape Town System Dams (Combined) 24.1% 24.6% 33.8%
Berg River Dam 53.1% 53.4% 42.4% Steenbras Lower 37.8% 40.0% 39.2% Steenbras Upper 89.2% 83.6% 57.2% Theewaterskloof Dam 10.9% 11.6% 28.7% Voelvlei Dam 16.2% 16.7% 35.3% Wemmershoek Dam 46.9% 48.0% 36.3% Clanwilliam Dam 11.4% 13.2% 39.1% Gamkapoort Dam 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Floriskraal Dam 3.5% 1.1% 6.2% Calitzdorp Dam 10.5% 9.4% 47.3% Stompdrift Dam 8.3% 2.4% 5.7% Dam as percentage full:
<= 50% >= 51% &<= 90% >= 91%
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6. PROCESS OF PRIORITISATION
The category of drought severity of each area visited was discussed and finalised during these meetings. Each area was scored from a 5 (still in a fair condition) to a 1 (extremely critical), with plusses and minuses for areas being a bit better (+) or worse (-) than the score given. The committee reached full consensus and a unanimous decision was made for all areas visited.
RESULTS: Each individual area was prioritised from areas that will experience critical drought over the next three months if they don’t receive rain (score 3 or less). The South African Weather Services (SAWS) forecasts a dry summer/autumn and a low probability of winter rainfall and it will impact the visited areas profoundly. These critical areas have been receiving short-term fodder relief, but should be provided with further fodder relief and be re-evaluated with a follow-up visit to determine whether there are any on-going needs.
Furthermore for areas with a score of more than 3 (3 to 4) it is important to take note that if the rainfall still remains below average in the summer rainfall areas and the winter rainfall areas they will urgently require even more needed relief efforts.
Key: Drought status/condition according to vegetation: Extremely critical Critical Very Dry Dry Good
6.1 West Coast district
Swartland district
Table 1. List of areas visited in the Swartland in order of visit. Areas visited District Scoring Status
1. Waterboerskraal Swartland 2- Extremely critical 2. Helderwater Swartland 2- Extremely critical 3. Aurora Swartland 1+ Extremely critical 4. Meintjieskraal Swartland 2- Extremely critical 5. Pools Swartland 2- Extremely critical
The Swartland district is still extremely critically dry and still need drought-relief assistance. Very little fodder reserves are available on the stubble lands and in the veld.
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Matzikama/Cederberg districts
Table 2. List of areas visited in the Matzikama and Cederberg districts in order of visit. Areas visited District Scoring Status
1. Drilriver Agterpakhuis 2 Extremely critical 2. Oumuur Agterpakhuis 1+ Extremely critical 3. De Lille Agterpakhuis 2- Extremely critical 4. Vaderlandsrietkuil Knersvlakte 1+ Extremely critical 5. Groot-Graafwater Knersvlakte 2- Extremely critical 6. Graatjiesgat Knersvlakte 2 Extremely critical 7. Kruispad Knersvlakte 2 Extremely critical 8. Kokerboom Kliprand 2- Extremely critical 9. Kamas Kliprand 2- Extremely critical 10. Lieslap Kliprand 2+ Extremely critical 11. Willem Kliprand 2- Extremely critical 12. Bokkraal Kliprand 2- Extremely critical 13. Louw Hardeveld 2 Extremely critical 14. Putsekloof Hardeveld 2+ Critical 15. Kogelfontein Hardeveld 2+ Critical 16. Kwaggaskop Hardeveld 2+ Critical 17. Komkans Northwest of Vredendal 3- Critical 18. Landplaas Northwest of Vredendal 2+ Critical 19. Namakwa Sands Northwest of Vredendal 2+ Critical
The Matzikamma and Cederberg districts are still extremely critical to critically dry and therefor still need drought-relief assistance. None to very little fodder reserves are available in the veld.
6.2 Cape Winelands district
Witzenberg district
Table 3. List of areas visited in the Witzenberg district in order of visit. Areas visited District Scoring Status
1. Bo-Bos Ceres Karoo 2 Extremely critical 2. Rietpoort Ceres Karoo 2- Extremely critical 3. Perdekraal Ceres Karoo 1+ Extremely critical 4. Brewelsfontein Ceres Karoo 1+ Extremely critical
The Ceres Karoo is still extremely critically dry and still needs drought relief assistance. None to very little fodder reserves are available in the veld.
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6.3 Central Karoo
Table 4. List of areas visited in the Central Karoo district in order of visit. Areas visited District Scoring Status
1. Soutkloof Moordenaarskaroo 2- Extremely critical 2. Fonteintjies Koup 3- Critical 3. Vereniging Koup 3- Critical 4. Buffelsvlei Koup 1+ Critical 5. Vaalleegte Koup 2+ Critical 6. Wamakerskraal North of Prince Albert 2+ Critical 7. Swartbult North of Prince Albert 2+ Critical 8. Combrinkskraal North of Prince Albert 2+ Critical 9. Abrahamskraal North of Prince Albert 1+ Critical 10. Moerbeifontein South of Beaufort West 2+ Critical 11. Boplaas South of Beaufort West 2 Critical 12. Klipstawel South of Beaufort West 2+ Critical 13. Aardoorns South of Beaufort West 3- Critical 14. De Put South of Beaufort West 3- Critical 15. Wolwekraal South of Beaufort West 2+ Critical 16. Seekoegat South of Beaufort West 3- Critical
The Central Karoo district is still in a critical to extremely critical dry condition, with small patches that did receive some rain. However if these areas in a better condition do not receive any follow-up rain in the next month they will become critically dry again. There is also not much fodder reserves available in the veld. Therefore the whole of Central Karoo still needs drought-relief assistance.
6.4 Eden district
Little Karoo district
Table 5. List of areas visited in the Little Karoo district in order of visit. Areas visited District Scoring Status
1. Zeekoerivier South of R62 2+ Extremely critical (Oudtshoorn/Calitzdorp) 2. Wilgerivier South of R62 2- Extremely critical (Oudtshoorn/Calitzdorp) 3. Warmbad South of R62 2 Extremely critical (Oudtshoorn/Calitzdorp) 4. Grootvlak Kannaland 2- Extremely critical
The Little Karoo is still in an extremely critically dry condition and still needs drought-relief assistance. Very little fodder reserves are available in the veld.
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Hessequa district
Table 6. List of areas visited in the Hessequa district in order of visit. Areas visited District Scoring Status
1. Slangrivier Hessequa West 5- Good
2. Suurbraak Hessequa West 5 Good
The area of the Hessequa that we visited received welcoming rains and was in a fair condition and can therefore be withdrawn from drought-relief assistance.
6.5 Overberg district
Table 7. List of areas visited in the Overberg district in order of visit. Areas visited District Scoring Status
1. Noukloof Overberg - West 4 Dry
The western parts of the Overberg region is very dry and the rain season start only in the winter, therefore the areas still needs drought relief assistance.
In Summary: The West Coast, Witzenberg, Central Karoo and Little Karoo (Eden district) and western parts of the Overberg regions are already extremely critically to critically dry and the veld as well as the stubble lands have very little fodder available for the livestock. They still need drought-relief assistance.
Parts of the Hessequa did received welcoming rains and can be withdrawn from drought- relief assistance.
According to Hein Rust (Head of Disaster Management Centre: CKDM):
“Most of the Central Karoo falls within a summer rainfall season and agriculture did experience an extreme drought for the past 4 years. It will still take time for the veld to recover and produce good crop for the stock and follow-up rain is crucial. So the conclusion is that the District is still effected by a drought.
The follow-up assessment during 5 - 9 February 2018 indicated that most of the District still experiences a severe drought. It is only the Northern side in the area of Murraysburg that received rain, but not sufficient to pull the people through the coming winter. There are only 2 months left of the summer rainfall period and the district did not receive the required amount of rain. The Central Karoo Agriculture is still in need of financially support to help during the drought.”
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The real problem is that the mating season for sheep starts from November/December. The ewes were in a state of losing condition and this led to a decrease in the conception rate as most of the farmers removed their rams in November/December. The result has been a low lambing percentage and a loss of income to the farmers for three consecutive years.
7. ESTIMATED FUNDS REQUIRED FOR DROUGHT RELIEF
Calculation is based on grazing capacity and maximum allowable amount of Live Stock Units (LSUs) per farm unit:
Table 8. LSUs per farm unit ITEM SPECIFICATION Total Large Stock Units (LSUs) LSU’s requires: 2% of body mass Daily: 9kg LSU daily maintenance is 450kg Price of maize R2805/ton R2.80 per kg Price of lucerne R2800/ton R2.80per kg Feeding mixture of 70% 6.3kg: R17.64 R25.2kg mix Lucerne 2.7kg: R7.56 30% maize Estimated cost per LSU 30 days/1 month R756kg/LSU/month Western Cape Province 30 000 LSU’s X 6months R 136 080 000.00
8. CONCLUDING REMARKS
Excellent co-operation, objectivity and sense of responsibility with regard to the importance of the assignment were experienced from all members of the committee. Communication was open and honest, with respect for different viewpoints. Committee members were willing to work long hours and did not scale-down on the quality of their inputs.
Affected landowners have destocked and applied for fodder relief against the prolonged dry conditions. It is troubling as the increase in fodder sales coincides with a decrease in planting and a severe shortage of fodder. Another added risk is that other province’s such as the Northern Cape are experiencing dry conditions and purchasing fodder and pellets from the stock that are available. Effective supplementary feeding practices form an integral part of effective management and breeding practices.
Western Cape farmers have recorded R14bn in losses so far, as a result of the crippling drought in the province, according to Agri Western Cape CEO Carl Opperman. Should the rainfall numbers continue to remain at a below average forecast rate, with the added risk of an increase in predation leads to an increase in vulnerability for farmers and their agri workers. It is important to note that agriculture employs relatively more unskilled
Page 10 of 16 labour compared to other economic sectors. Opperman said deciduous fruit crops would be about 20% smaller than previous years. As a result, about 50,000 seasonal workers would receive income that was lower than normal or no income at all. Within the context of the drought, it is clear that there will be very little opportunity for these workers to be employed elsewhere in the economy – thus, a looming socio-economic crisis. The drought, and resulting higher water prices, will significantly limit agricultural activities of these households and affect the food security level of particularly low income households. This implies that there will be social and humanitarian relief needed for those workers that no longer work or have been laid off.
I have reviewed the report:
……………………………………………………… Ms A Petersen Director: Sustainable Resource Management DATE:
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DROOGTEKRITERIA/ DROUGHT CRITERIA:
5. Nog in ‘n redelike goeie toestand – Veld vertoon droog, maar plante nog groen, vol blare en sommige plante het blomme. Hergroei op plante, kraalbos vertoon groen. Baie opslag en dit blom. Grasse is droog, maar het nog halms en blomme aan (groen). Still in a relative good condition – Veld looks dry, but plants are still green, with leaves and some with flowers. Regrowth on the plants, Kraalbos is green. A lot of opslag and it is flowering. Grasses are dry, but still have culms and inflorescence (green).
4. Plante droog, maar meeste nog met blare - Sommige groen en met blomme en hergroei. Opslag teenwoordig. Plants are dry, but most of them still have leaves. Some plants are still green with flowers and regrowth. Opslag present.
3. Droog – Plante kurkdroog, maar lewe nog. Takkies breek nie maklik af nie en daar is nog blare teenwoordig, hoewel verbruin. Enkele blomme teenwoordig. Min opslag teenwoordig. Gras is droog, maar nog nie swart nie (bv. Kraalbos is geel). Dry – Plants are very dry, but still alive. Twigs don’t break easily and there are still leaves present, although brown. A few flowers present. Little opslag present. Grasses are dry, but not yet black (e.g. Kraalbos is yellow).
2. Krities droog – Bykans alle plante is swart en droog, enkeles toon nog lewe. Grasse is vaal. Bv. Kriedorings en granaatbos sonder blare. Critically dry – Most of the plants are black and dry, few that still show signs of live. Grasses are grey. E.g. Kriedorings and Granaatbos are without leaves.
1. Uiters kritiek droog –Alle plante swart, sommig word al wit en is droog. Min tot geen tekens van lewe. Grasse is swart en dood. Bv. Kraalbos en granaatbos is wit.Geen opslag.
Extremely critically dry – All plants are black, some already turning white, and dry. Few to no signs of live. Grasses are black and dead. E.g. Kraalbos is white. No opslag. **.
** The timing of the current dry conditions impact on the available reserves (pastures: Lucerne and medics). This could mean that for areas rated 3 to 4 it is important to take note that if after December the rainfall still remains below average these areas will have to urgently be re-evaluated as they will by all likelihood require much needed relief efforts.
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