Jody Wentzel Directorate Sustainable Resource Management Email: [email protected] tel: +27 21 808 7805 fax: +27 21 808 5370 Reference: 20/2/Drought Assessment Report - Western Cape (2018) Annexure A: Drought assessment report for disaster relief funding for the drought-stricken areas of livestock and crop farming in the Western Cape Province – February 2018 1. AIM To perform a technical and scientific assessment for the provision of emergency fodder relief within the drought-stricken areas of the Western Cape. 2. INTRODUCTION Drought relief, in the form of fodder, is currently being provided to all qualifying farmers in the West Coast district , Cape Winelands district, Central Karoo district, parts of the Eden district and Overberg district. All these areas need assistance. The consequence of the current situation is that once the drought has been broken, farmers will have to build up their flocks, leading to negative cash flow for a considerable period of time. If government does not intervene to further alleviate the situation, the dire impact of the drought will be felt for years to come, especially in the rural areas, where agriculture is the main generator of the economy. The socio-economic impact on farm workers would be significant should the agricultural activity in the Western Cape collapse. Areas of the Central Karoo district and West Coast district municipality are in a critical drought situation. Livestock farmers are amongst the hardest hit by the drought. The impacts of the drought in the summer rainfall region on beef cattle herds, with high numbers of animals slaughtered and the supply subsequently becoming limited, has led to high meat prices. Similarly, the national sheep flock has reduced as a result of the drought. Livestock farmers in the Western Cape will unlikely benefit much from price increases since the ongoing drought continues to limit available grazing and feed production. Within the wheat-growing region the wheat harvest has produced far below average and the landowners that utilize the wheat stubble and pasture crops (such as medics and lucerne which are produced in rotation with wheat) for livestock grazing– mostly sheep – will require further fodder relief. Due to low or no yields the biomass from remaining residues are low or non-existent so producers cannot effectively feed their animals through the dry summer without any form of bought-in fodder. Areas of the Western Cape (in particular the West Coast, Central Karoo and little Karoo) are in a critical drought situation. Page 1 of 16 3. DROUGHT-ASSESSMENT PRIORITISATION COMMITTEE 3.1 COMMITTEE The committee performed a verification assessment and the most critical areas/regions that require additional drought-relief assistance were identified. Organisation Designation Name Department of Agriculture, Climate Change and Disaster Jackson Forestry and Fisheries Management Mokwatedi Department of Agriculture, Climate Change and Disaster Solomon Matsa Forestry and Fisheries Management Western Cape Department of Director: Sustainable Resource Ashia Petersen Agriculture Management Sustainable Resource Western Cape Department of Management: Disaster Risk Jody Wentzel Agriculture Management Research and Technology Western Cape Department of Nelmarié Development Services: Agriculture Saayman Rangeland Scientist Research and Technology Western Cape Department of Development Services: Risk Henk Cerfonteyn Agriculture Assessment Scientist Western Cape Department of Sustainable Resource Francis Steyn Agriculture Management: LandCare Western Cape Department of Sustainable Resource Stefan Theron Agriculture Management: LandCare Western Cape Department of Farmer Support Development Albertus Dyason Agriculture Western Cape Department of Sustainable Resource Jan Smit Agriculture Management: LandCare Western Cape Department of Sustainable Resource Johan van der Agriculture Management: LandCare Merwe Western Cape Disaster Directorate Disaster Operations: Ronelle Pieters Management Centre Disaster Recovery Central Karoo Disaster District Disaster Manager Hein Rust Management Centre JMStrauss Consulting: Risk Jeanne-Marié JMStrauss Consulting Consultant Strauss Page 2 of 16 3.2 FARMER UNIONS Inputs were also obtained from landowners and farmer union representatives. The following representatives of local farmer unions joined the committee or provided inputs for the assessment: District Area Name WEST COAST Panorama Piketberg Abrie Richter WEST COAST Waterboerskraal (Hopefield) Gideon Melck WEST COAST Meintjieskraal (Rooi Karoo) Jan Hendrick CENTRAL KAROO Laingsburg Christan van der Vyfer EDEN Oude Muragie Maggie Fourie EDEN DKBV Alie Briekwa EDEN Boetie Hutties Farm (Pty) LTD Jolian Du Preez EDEN Micro Farm Hendrik September EDEN DKBV Fernando van Staden EDEN DKBV Pedro Samson 3.3 ROUTE Km/Day DATE ROUTE Day 1 05- Elsenburg – Moorreesburg, Velddrif, Aurora, Piketberg, Ceres- 525km Feb-18 Karoo, Clanwilliam, Agterpakhuis – Vredendal Day 2 06- Vredendal – Nuwerus, Bitterfontein, Rietpoort, Kliprand, Lutzville – 384km Feb-18 Vredendal (384 km) Vredendal – Clanwilliam, Citrusdal, Prince Alfred Hamlet, Ceres- Day 3 07- Karoo, Touwsrivier, Matjiesfontein, Laingsburg, Koup, Merweville – 594km Feb-18 Prince Albert Day 4 08- Prince Albert – Leeu-Gamka, Beaufort-West, De Rust, Dysseldorp, 455km Feb-18 Oudtshoorn, Calitzdorp – Ladismith Day 5 09- Ladismith – Heidelberg, Suurbraak, Tesselaarsdal, Theewaterskloof 545km Feb-18 Dam, Villiersdorp, Franschhoek – Elsenburg Page 3 of 16 4. PROCEDURE The areas that were prioritised are summer and winter rainfall regions currently experiencing above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall. The criteria that was used to determine this deviation, was as follows: Climate o Rainfall history (monthly precipitation records) o Seasonal rainfall distribution (NDVI and PASG) Rangeland o Quality of grazing o Grazing capacity and production potential o Reserves available o Conservation status o Cover/trampling o Vegetation Conditions Index (VCI) Livestock1 o Condition o Percentage stock reduction at the time of drought-evaluation o Dependence of livestock on planted pastures Water1 o Water-table o Boreholes. During the visit, the committee stopped at evaluation points (i.e. farms and natural fields) to assess the situation at ground level on the basis of the above-mentioned criteria. Discussions were held at each stop regarding indicator-species and background information was received from the extension officers and farmers in the area. Most of the evaluation points were assessed in previous years (points are documented with a GPS); which provides a baseline that indicates it the condition of the land has remained the same or deteriorated in the drought conditions. The farmers that we met in the various districts expressed their appreciation for the fodder assistance and indicated that they would not be able to sustain this drought without the drought support they are receiving from government. 5. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS 7.1 PASG: The Percentage of Average Seasonal Greenness (PASG) indicates how vegetation conditions for a specific period during the growing season compares to the historical average conditions. E.g. predominant green areas show normal photosynthetic conditions whereas orange and red areas show plant activity conditions indicating possible drought stricken areas. See the PASG map for January 2018 on page 13. 1Livestock and water was used as supportive information to the other criteria used. Page 4 of 16 7.2 VCI: The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) compares the current NDVI to the range of values observed in the same period in previous years. The VCI is expressed in % and gives an idea where the observed value is situated between the extreme values (minimum and maximum) in the previous years. Lower and higher values indicate bad and good vegetation state conditions, respectively. This was the map preferred by the drought-relief prioritisation committee. See the VCI map on page 14. 7.3 NDVI: The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) provides a guideline to measure the current veld situation (whether it contains live green vegetation or not) and for monitoring and forecasting crop production. One of the main challenges with the NDVI however, is the fact that it is difficult to distinguish between over-grazing and poor veld condition because of drought. See the NDVI map on page 15. 7.4 Western Cape Provincial Drought Management Task Team Meetings: Regular meetings and the consolidation of information from various stakeholders provides for a current and comprehensive overview of the drought situation in the Western Cape Province. 7.5 Dam levels: This data is obtained from the National Department of Water and Sanitation. As far as possible, dam levels are updated on a weekly basis. Table 1. Western Cape Dam levels on 2018-02-23rd % 20th - 23rd % week before Dam % in 2017 February 2018 the 23rd Cape Town System Dams Consist of : Wemmershoek-; Voëlvlei-; Steenbras Upper and Lower- ; Theewaterskloof Dam and Berg River Dam Cape Town System Dams (Combined) 24.1% 24.6% 33.8% Berg River Dam 53.1% 53.4% 42.4% Steenbras Lower 37.8% 40.0% 39.2% Steenbras Upper 89.2% 83.6% 57.2% Theewaterskloof Dam 10.9% 11.6% 28.7% Voelvlei Dam 16.2% 16.7% 35.3% Wemmershoek Dam 46.9% 48.0% 36.3% Clanwilliam Dam 11.4% 13.2% 39.1% Gamkapoort Dam 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Floriskraal Dam 3.5% 1.1% 6.2% Calitzdorp Dam 10.5% 9.4% 47.3% Stompdrift Dam 8.3% 2.4% 5.7% Dam as percentage full: <= 50% >= 51% &<= 90% >= 91% Page 5 of 16 6. PROCESS OF PRIORITISATION