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COVID-19 and Conflicts: the Health of Peace Processes During a Pandemic

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COVID-19 and Conflicts: the Health of Peace Processes During a Pandemic \\jciprod01\productn\H\HNR\25-2\HNR203.txt unknown Seq: 1 21-SEP-20 9:31 COVID-19 and Conflicts: The Health of Peace Processes During a Pandemic Lisa K. Dicker* & C. Danae Paterson** EDITORS’ NOTE This Article appears in print in the Spring 2020 issue of Volume 25 of the Harvard Negotiation Law Review. It reflects the information available to the authors as of the publication date, June 5, 2020. In the coming weeks and months, the au- thors will provide updates via the Harvard Negotiation Law Re- view website at https://www.hnlr.org/tag/hnlr-online-articles/. CONTENTS I. Introduction .......................................... 214 R II. The Internationalization of Peace Processes and Pre-Pandemic Ongoing Mediation Efforts ............. 216 R A. The Internationalization of Peace Processes ....... 216 R B. Pre-Pandemic Ongoing Mediation Efforts ......... 219 R III. Raising the Stakes: COVID-19’s Impact on Armed Conflicts and Conflict-Affected Areas ................. 223 R A. Armed Conflict Areas are Highly Vulnerable to COVID-19 ........................................ 224 R B. Exploitation of COVID-19 to Escalate Violence and Consolidate Power ........................... 228 R IV. Impact of COVID-19 on Selected Current Peace Negotiations.......................................... 232 R * Licensed attorney practicing in peace negotiation and post-conflict transi- tional contexts; Adjunct Professor for Bay Path University’s Master of Science in Leadership & Negotiation. Graduate of Harvard Law School, J.D. and University of Tennessee, B.A. ** Licensed attorney practicing in peace negotiations and post-conflict transi- tional contexts; Graduate of Harvard Law School, J.D., London School of Economics, M.Sc., and University of California, Los Angeles, B.A. This Article reflects the views of the authors alone and does not reflect the view of any organization or academic institutions with which the authors are associated or affiliated. 213 \\jciprod01\productn\H\HNR\25-2\HNR203.txt unknown Seq: 2 21-SEP-20 9:31 214 Harvard Negotiation Law Review [Vol. 25:213 A. Pandemic Limitations on International Engagement and Mediation ....................... 232 R B. Creative Mediation Approaches to Unprecedented Problems ......................... 235 R C. Increased International Pressure for Agreements....................................... 237 R V. Preliminary Reflections on COVID-19’s Impact on Peace Processes ...................................... 241 R A. There are Consequences to International Distraction ....................................... 242 R B. Use of Creative Technology May—or May Not— Continue after COVID-19 ......................... 242 R C. Why Not Pre-Existing Crises? .................... 247 R VI. Conclusion ........................................... 248 R I. INTRODUCTION On March 23, 2020, United Nations (“UN”) Secretary-General Ant—nio Guterres, through a virtual press conference, concluded that “[o]ur world faces a common enemy: COVID-19. The virus does not care about nationality or ethnicity, faction or faith. It attacks all, relentlessly. Meanwhile, armed conflict rages on around the world.”1 The Secretary-General stressed the extreme vulnerability of conflict- affected states to the COVID-19 pandemic, and called for a global ceasefire.2 Within a week, 53 states echoed the call for a global ceasefire, and that number continues to increase.3 As some of the strongest healthcare systems on the planet strug- gle to bear the weight of the COVID-19 onslaught, it is likely that the impact of the virus will be catastrophic in war-torn regions where armed conflict has decimated healthcare infrastructure. In these places, refugees and internally displaced persons may already strug- gle to access even basic services, and corridors for humanitarian aid 1. United Nations Secretary-General, Secretary-General Calls for Global Ceasefire, Citing War-Ravaged Health Systems, Populations Most Vulnerable to Novel Coronavirus, (Mar. 23, 2020), https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm20018.doc.htm [https://perma.cc/GT33-XD99]. 2. Id. 3. Seth Farsides, COVID-19: 53 Nations Back a Global Ceasefire but Conflict Still Ensues, INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS (Mar. 31, 2020), https:/ /observatoryihr.org/news/covid-19-53-nations-back-a-global-ceasefire-but-conflict- still-ensues/ [https://perma.cc/8XKC-PYJS]; Secretary-General Reiterates Appeal for Global Ceasefire, Warns ‘Worst is yet to Come’ as COVID-19 Threatens Conflict Zones, UNITED NATIONS: MEETINGS COVERAGE AND PRESS RELEASES (Apr. 3, 2020), https:// www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm20032.doc.htm [https://perma.cc/MBW9-Y82U]. \\jciprod01\productn\H\HNR\25-2\HNR203.txt unknown Seq: 3 21-SEP-20 9:31 Spring 2020] COVID-19 and Conflicts 215 are closing. At the time of writing this Article, though the Secretary- General implored “[s]ilence the guns; stop the artillery; end the air- strikes,”4 his call has not been heeded. Perversely, in some conflicts, violence has escalated. This should not be a surprise. While calling for a global ceasefire is admirable, the process of reaching an agreement between hostile parties to halt hostilities is typically a difficult, intricate endeavor involving international mediation and intense negotiations. These negotiations can sometimes last for years—or longer—and achieving agreement on a cessation of hostilities for a single day is often a sub- stantial breakthrough. At a time when there is intense speculation regarding how even the most powerful international entities can function,5 how will peace between hostile parties be brokered? This Article reviews the status of selected contemporary peace processes in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak and explores some of the initial effects that the pandemic has had on those processes. The Article first provides an overview of the 20th and 21st century trend toward internationalized peace processes. Then, it in- troduces several contemporary mediation efforts that were ongoing at the onset of the pandemic and examines the early impacts of COVID- 19 on those peace processes. In so doing, the Article identifies in- stances where actors have exploited the pandemic and peace processes where momentum has shrunk under COVID-19. The Arti- cle also recognizes creative solutions that some actors have deployed in an attempt to counteract that shrinking, as well as contexts where pressure triggered by the pandemic seems to have facilitated pro- gress in negotiations. The Article concludes by considering what the early impacts of COVID-19 on these peace processes may suggest for internationally mediated peace processes in the post-pandemic era. Of course, it must be mentioned that this Article has been drafted in what is likely to be the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is premature to draw definitive conclusions, and accordingly, this Arti- cle does not purport to do so. 4. United Nations Secretary-General, supra note 1. R 5. Possible Implications of COVID-19 on International Peace and Security, WHAT’SIN BLUE (Mar. 21, 2020), https://www.whatsinblue.org/2020/03/possible-impli- cations-of-covid-19-on-international-peace-and-security.php [https://perma.cc/N3WM- W7R3]. \\jciprod01\productn\H\HNR\25-2\HNR203.txt unknown Seq: 4 21-SEP-20 9:31 216 Harvard Negotiation Law Review [Vol. 25:213 II. THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF PEACE PROCESSES AND PRE- PANDEMIC ONGOING MEDIATION EFFORTS A. The Internationalization of Peace Processes To set the stage prior to analyzing initial impacts of COVID-19 on current mediation efforts, it is critical to provide a brief overview of the internationalization of peace processes. Since World War II, international mediation has become an increasingly frequent feature in peace process frameworks. Much could be and has been written about the benefits and drawbacks of international mediation,6 which is largely beyond the scope of this Article. Regardless of their posi- tive or negative attributes, it is difficult to escape that by their very nature, internationalized mediation efforts will be impacted by COVID-19 and the travel and assembly restrictions that it triggered. Mediation is commonly defined as “a process of conflict manage- ment where the disputants seek the assistance of, or accept an offer of help from, an individual, group, state or organization to settle their conflict or resolve their differences without resorting to physical vio- lence or invoking the authority of the law.”7 In internationally medi- ated peace processes, this typically involves an “outside” central actor that does “not have the authority to impose an outcome” on the nego- tiating parties.8 Nonetheless, internationally mediated peace processes and legal work are inextricably intertwined. While media- tion is viewed as outside the invocation of the “authority of the law,” meaning that there is no legal rule that is invoked to determine the outcome of the dispute, international mediation as a dispute resolu- tion mechanism relies on a legal foundation, knowledge, and skillset, and generally produces contracted outcomes.9 Indeed, much analysis has been done on the intersection of law and legal practice and peace 6. See, e.g., Kyle Beardsley, Agreement Without Peace? International Mediation and Time Inconsistency Problems, 52 AM. J. OF POLITICAL SCIENCE 723 (2006); Bernd Beber, International Mediation, Selection Effects, and the Question of Bias, 29 CON- FLICT MANAGEMENT AND PEACE SCIENCE 397 (2012); Jacob Bercovitch, J. Theodore Anagnoson, & Donnette L. Wille, Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends
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