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Western Europe Is Warming Much Faster Than Expected
Clim. Past, 5, 1–12, 2009 www.clim-past.net/5/1/2009/ Climate © Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under of the Past the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Western Europe is warming much faster than expected G. J. van Oldenborgh1, S. Drijfhout1, A. van Ulden1, R. Haarsma1, A. Sterl1, C. Severijns1, W. Hazeleger1, and H. Dijkstra2 1KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut), De Bilt, The Netherlands 2Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Received: 28 July 2008 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 29 July 2008 Revised: 22 December 2008 – Accepted: 22 December 2008 – Published: 21 January 2009 Abstract. The warming trend of the last decades is now so by Regional Climate models (RCMs) do not deviate much strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. from GCMs, as the prescribed SST and boundary condition This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warm- determine the temperature to a large extent (Lenderink et al., ing predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), 2007). which up to now could not be verified directly to observations By now, global warming can be detected even on the grid on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too point scale. In this paper we investigate the high tempera- low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over ture trends observed in western Europe over the last decades. the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by First we compare these with the trends expected on the basis state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due of climate model experiments. -
Climate Models and Their Evaluation
8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. -
Improving Climate Model Accuracy by Exploring Parameter Space with an O(105) Member
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 1 Improving climate model accuracy by exploring parameter space with an O(105) member 2 ensemble and emulator 3 Sihan Li1,2, David E. Rupp3, Linnia Hawkins3,6, Philip W. Mote3,6, Doug McNeall4, Sarah 4 N. Sparrow2, David C. H. Wallom2, Richard A. Betts4,5, Justin J. Wettstein6,7,8 5 1Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University 6 of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 7 2Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 8 3Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric 9 Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 10 4Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom 11 5College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 12 6College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, 13 Oregon 14 7Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway 15 8Bjerknes Centre for Climate Change Research, Bergen, Norway 16 Correspondence to: Sihan Li ([email protected]) 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1 Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 24 Abstract 25 Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many 26 of which have large summer warm and dry biases over Northern Hemisphere continental 27 mid-latitudes. -
Prep Publi Catio on Cop Py
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PREPUBLICATION COPY Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Board on Atmospheric Sciencees and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies This prepublication version of Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in spring 2016. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation under contract number 2015- 63077, the Heising-Simons Foundation under contract number 2015-095, the Litterman Family Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX15AW55G, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number EE- 133E-15-SE-1748, and the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-SC0014256, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: International Standard Book Number-10: Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21852 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. -
On the Uses of a New Linear Scheme for Stratospheric Methane in Global Models: Water Source, Transport Tracer and Radiative Forc
Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 479–523, 2012 Atmospheric www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/479/2012/ Chemistry doi:10.5194/acpd-12-479-2012 and Physics © Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Discussions This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP if available. On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing B. M. Monge-Sanz1, M. P. Chipperfield1, A. Untch2, J.-J. Morcrette2, A. Rap1, and A. J. Simmons2 1Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK Received: 10 October 2011 – Accepted: 5 November 2011 – Published: 6 January 2012 Correspondence to: B. M. Monge-Sanz ([email protected]) Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 479 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract A new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane (CoMeCAT) has been devel- oped and tested. The scheme is derived from a 3-D full chemistry transport model (CTM) and tested within the same chemistry model itself, as well as in an independent 5 general circulation model (GCM). The new CH4/H2O scheme is suitable for any global model and here is shown to provide realistic profiles in the 3-D TOMCAT/SLIMCAT CTM and in the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) GCM. -
Installing and Using the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Modelling System, PRECIS
Installing and using the Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system, PRECIS Version 1.9.4 www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis Simon Wilson, David Hassell, David Hein, Chloe Eagle, Simon Tucker, Richard Jones and Ruth Taylor April 12, 2012 Contents 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background .............................. 11 1.2 Objectivesandstructureofthemanual . 12 2 Hardware, operating system and software environment 13 2.1 Recommended Hardware Configurations . 13 2.2 Multi-processorsystems . 14 2.3 InstallationofLinux ......................... 15 2.4 Compilers ............................... 16 2.5 System setup before installing PRECIS . 17 3 PRECIS software and installation 19 3.1 Introduction.............................. 19 3.2 Disklayout .............................. 20 3.3 Main steps in installation process . 21 3.4 Installation of PRECIS software and data . 21 3.5 InstallationofMetOfficedata . 25 3.5.1 Boundary data supplied on hard drive . 25 3.6 Installation verification . 27 3.7 InstallationofCDAT ......................... 28 4 Experimental design and setup 30 4.1 Experimentaldesign ......................... 30 4.1.1 Regional climate model . 30 2 4.1.2 Choice of driving model and forcing scenario . 30 4.1.3 Simulationlength. 36 4.1.4 Initial condition ensembles . 37 4.1.5 Choice of land surface scheme . 38 4.1.6 Outputdata.......................... 38 4.1.7 Spinup............................. 38 4.1.8 Choice of region . 39 4.1.9 Land-seamask ........................ 39 4.1.10 Altitude ............................ 40 4.1.11 Altitude of inland waters . 41 4.1.12 Soil and land cover . 41 4.1.13 RCM calendar and clock . 42 4.1.14 RCM Resolution . 42 4.1.15 Outputformat ........................ 43 4.1.16 Checklist............................ 43 5 Configuring an experiment with PRECIS 45 5.1 Introduction............................. -
Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Anthony Lupo (USA) William Kininmonth (Australia) Contributing: J
1 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Anthony Lupo (USA) William Kininmonth (Australia) Contributing: J. Scott Armstrong (USA), Kesten Green (Australia) 1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Key Findings Introduction 1.1 Model Simulation and Forecasting 1.2 Modeling Techniques 1.3 Elements of Climate 1.4 Large Scale Phenomena and Teleconnections Key Findings Confidence in a model is further based on the The IPCC places great confidence in the ability of careful evaluation of its performance, in which model general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate future output is compared against actual observations. A climate and attribute observed climate change to large portion of this chapter, therefore, is devoted to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. They the evaluation of climate models against real-world claim the “development of climate models has climate and other biospheric data. That evaluation, resulted in more realism in the representation of many summarized in the findings of numerous peer- quantities and aspects of the climate system,” adding, reviewed scientific papers described in the different “it is extremely likely that human activities have subsections of this chapter, reveals the IPCC is caused more than half of the observed increase in overestimating the ability of current state-of-the-art global average surface temperature since the 1950s” GCMs to accurately simulate both past and future (p. 9 and 10 of the Summary for Policy Makers, climate. The IPCC’s stated confidence in the models, Second Order Draft of AR5, dated October 5, 2012). as presented at the beginning of this chapter, is likely This chapter begins with a brief review of the exaggerated. -
University of Reading Boundary-Layer Type Classification and Pollutant Mixing
University of Reading Department of Meteorology Boundary-layer type classification and pollutant mixing Natalie Jane Harvey A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy March 2013 Declaration I confirm that this is my own work and the use of all material from other sources has been properly and fully acknowledged. Natalie Harvey Page ii Abstract In the atmospheric boundary layer the vertical distribution of heat, momentum, water and pollutants is controlled by mixing that is turbulent. This complex mixing is param- eterized in weather forecast and climate models. But are the parameterizations imple- mented in these models representative of the real world? For the first time, Doppler lidar and sonic anemometer data are used to objectively classify the observed boundary layer into nine different types based on the Met Office scheme. Examples of these types are decoupled stratocumulus cloud, cumulus capped and stable with no turbulent cloud. This method is applied to three years of data from the Chilbolton Observatory, UK, to create a climatology of boundary-layer type. This climatology exhibits clear seasonal and diurnal cycles with the most common type over the three years being a cloud-free stable boundary layer. The decoupled stratocumulus type and the cumulus cloud under a stratocumulus layer type are diagnosed 10.3% and 1.0% of the period respectively. This new observationally based boundary layer classification is used to evaluate the boundary-layer type diagnosed by the 4 km and 12 km resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model. The model is found to predict too many decoupled stratocumulus boundary layers by a factor of 1.8, in both the stable and unstable regime. -
Effects of Stratospheretroposphere Chemistry Coupling on Tropospheric Ozone
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, D00M04, doi:10.1029/2009JD013515, 2010 Effects of stratosphere‐troposphere chemistry coupling on tropospheric ozone Wenshou Tian,1,2 Martyn P. Chipperfield,2 David S. Stevenson,3 Richard Damoah,3,4 Sandip Dhomse,2 Anu Dudhia,5 Hugh Pumphrey,3 and Peter Bernath6 Received 6 November 2009; revised 23 March 2010; accepted 13 April 2010; published 17 September 2010. [1] A new, computationally efficient coupled stratosphere‐troposphere chemistry‐climate model (S/T‐CCM) has been developed based on three well‐documented components: a64‐level general circulation model from the UK Met Office Unified Model, the tropospheric chemistry transport model (STOCHEM), and the UMSLIMCAT stratospheric chemistry module. This newly developed S/T‐CCM has been evaluated with various observations, and it shows good performance in simulating important chemical species and their interdependence in both the troposphere and stratosphere. The modeled total column ozone agrees well with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer observations. Modeled ozone profiles in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are significantly improved compared to runs with the stratospheric chemistry and tropospheric chemistry models alone, and they are in good agreement with Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding satellite ozone profiles. The observed CO tape recorder is also successfully captured by the new CCM, and ozone‐CO correlations are in accordance with Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment observations. However, because of limitations in vertical resolution, intrusion of CO‐rich air in the stratosphere from the mesosphere could not be simulated in the current version of S/T‐CCM. Additionally, the simulated stratosphere‐to‐troposphere ozone flux, which controls upper tropospheric OH and O3 concentrations, is found to be more realistic in the new coupled model compared to STOCHEM. -
Assimila Blank
NERC NERC Strategy for Earth System Modelling: Technical Support Audit Report Version 1.1 December 2009 Contact Details Dr Zofia Stott Assimila Ltd 1 Earley Gate The University of Reading Reading, RG6 6AT Tel: +44 (0)118 966 0554 Mobile: +44 (0)7932 565822 email: [email protected] NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 Contents 1. BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Context .................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Scope of the ESM audit ............................................................................................ 4 1.4 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 5 2. Scene setting ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 NERC Strategy......................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Definition of Earth system modelling ........................................................................ 8 2.3 Broad categories of activities supported by NERC ................................................. 10 2.4 Structure of the report ........................................................................................... -
Review of the Global Models Used Within Phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, 2017 www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/639/2017/ doi:10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017 © Author(s) 2017. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Olaf Morgenstern1, Michaela I. Hegglin2, Eugene Rozanov18,5, Fiona M. O’Connor14, N. Luke Abraham17,20, Hideharu Akiyoshi8, Alexander T. Archibald17,20, Slimane Bekki21, Neal Butchart14, Martyn P. Chipperfield16, Makoto Deushi15, Sandip S. Dhomse16, Rolando R. Garcia7, Steven C. Hardiman14, Larry W. Horowitz13, Patrick Jöckel10, Beatrice Josse9, Douglas Kinnison7, Meiyun Lin13,23, Eva Mancini3, Michael E. Manyin12,22, Marion Marchand21, Virginie Marécal9, Martine Michou9, Luke D. Oman12, Giovanni Pitari3, David A. Plummer4, Laura E. Revell5,6, David Saint-Martin9, Robyn Schofield11, Andrea Stenke5, Kane Stone11,a, Kengo Sudo19, Taichu Y. Tanaka15, Simone Tilmes7, Yousuke Yamashita8,b, Kohei Yoshida15, and Guang Zeng1 1National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand 2Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK 3Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Universitá dell’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy 4Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, Canada 5Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich (ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland 6Bodeker Scientific, Christchurch, New Zealand 7National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA 8National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan 9CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, -
Climate Risk Management Xxx (2016) Xxx–Xxx
Climate Risk Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Climate Risk Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/crm Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada ⇑ Tara Razavi a,c, , Harris Switzman b,1, Altaf Arain c, Paulin Coulibaly a,c a McMaster University, Department of Civil Engineering, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L7, Canada b Ontario Climate Consortium/Toronto and Region Conservation, Toronto, Ontario, Canada c McMaster University, School of Geography and Earth Sciences, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L7, Canada article info abstract Article history: This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated Received 17 December 2015 with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local Revised 13 June 2016 scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenar- Accepted 14 June 2016 ios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale Available online xxxx in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projections were also analyzed using daily Keywords: precipitation and temperature time series and their extreme indices, calculated from grid- Climate change ded daily observed climate data along with and projections from dynamically downscaled Uncertainty Trend datasets of