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Privcap Special Reports PRIVCAP/ SPECIAL REPORTS JANUARY 2014 Golden Days Ahead? Snow’s Notes: Boom 2.0/ 5 Healthcare Dealmaking/ 9 Ever-Emerging India / 10 The Future Looks Large to Hamilton Lane/ 12 10 Fundraisings & IPOs to Watch / 18 Debt: State of the Market / 29 Premium ContentPrivcap Exclusively Special for Report Privcap •Subscribers Outlook 2014Only /| www.privcap.comJanuary 2014 / 1 On Privcap.c0m Videos in this special report This special report includes the following new video On Camera programs. Watch them at Privcap.com What Do The Facts Say? With Mike Ryan of Hamilton Lane What does data about PPM flow, zombies and deal multiples say about the state of the PE market? Mike Ryan of Hamilton Lane answers. The Debt Roundtable Two industry veterans, Ben Marzouk of Monroe Capital and Joe Burkhart of Saratoga Investment, predict what’s to come for debt markets in 2014. Hamilton Lane: Outlook 2014 Erik Hirsch of Hamilton Lane shares his view of the capital raising Erik Hirsch: The Hamilton Lane CIO tells market and the lessons of 2013. Privcap that private equity has an NAV “challenge.” Click here to watch. The Outlook for India New Silk Route Partners’ Parag Saxena explains why 2014 may be the year India finally “emerges.” Healthy Returns Mike Liang of Baird Capital on the global health care sector. COMING SOON on Privcap How to Subtract Value Via Bad Stories of Impact Success Tax Moves How investments and business initia- Two tax experts discuss transfer pricing tives in the emerging markets have and qualified stock purchases, and how impacted those societies. getting these wrong can end up subtracting value from a private Carve-Outs: Plan of Action equity deal. How are plans of action devised and executed in priavte equity carve-out Fund Formation in the deals? Experts from Wolf, Sun Capital, Post-Financial Crisis Era and Grant Thornton explain. Experts from Catalyst Investors, Blue Wolf Capital Partners and MVision weigh in on the best way to secure capital and build relationships in the current climate... Privcap Special Report • Outlook 2014 | January 2014 / 2 On Privcap.com In Case You Missed It... Must-see thought leadership from Privcap.com Investing in Digital Europe Happy Management, Happy Measuring ‘Impact’ in PE: Philipp Freise of KKR on Europe’s tech Carve-Out Challenging, but Progressing scene and how his firm helped German How private equity investors align division Private equity firms increasingly are focused broadcaster ProSiebenSat.1 become a management with the investment ob- on impact and ESG—but how do firms digital competitor. jectives of a corporate carve-out. Featur- measure and report these non-financial ing Adam Blumenthal, Ed Kleinguetl and results? Experts from Siguler Guff, Aaron Wolfe. Global Environment Fund and EY share insights. Valuation Challenge: Exploring Exits in African Pension Liability and the Sun Downward Facing Debt Private Equity Capital Court Case: What it Means for PE How do you value a portfolio company New research explores the issues of value when its publicly traded debt is creation and exits in African PE. A key court case might put GPs on the down? Privcap asked three valuation Michelle Essome of the AVCA and hook for pension liabilities as well as raise experts from StepStone, McGladrey and Mike Rogers of EY explain findings of taxes on carried interest, according to tax W Capital to weigh in. the joint study. and liability experts from Arsenal Capital and McGladrey. About Privcap Special Reports Upcoming Reports Privcap Special Reports are exclusively for subscribers to Privcap, the definitive channel for February: All About Operating Partners thought leadership in private capital. Each month Privcap focuses on a critical theme and March: New Frontiers in Capital Formation produces a “bundle” of thought-leadership content in multiple formats—a digital report, April: Private Equity Performance video interviews and panel discussions, and audio programs. We capture the market May: All About Co-Investment intelligence of leading authorities, whose expertise forms the core of each report. Privcap June: Energy Game Change Special Reports help market participants better understand opportunities and practices in private capital, as well as gain deep insights into the people with whom they may become long-term investment partners. Privcap Special Report • Outlook 2014 | January 2014 / 3 PRIVCAP SPECIAL REPORTS In This Issue Snow’s Notes: 05 Diminished Expectations The PE party is set to return in 2014, writes Privcap CEO David Snow A Four-Star Tour of the Globe 07 Privcap talks to General David Petraeus and Vance Serchuk of KKR Global Institute Healthy Returns 09 Global forces are at play in the health care sector, says Baird Capital’s Mike Liang What the Future Holds for India 10 Will 2014 be the year that India finally “emerges?” 30 With Parag Saxena of New Silk Route Partners 07 Outlook 2014: Hamilton Lane 12 What the coming year holds for GPs and LPs, with PRIVCAP SPECIAL REPORT CIO Erik Hirsch AND Privcap LLC David Snow Co-founder and CEO A deep dive into deal data, with researcher Gil Torren Co-founder and President Michael Ryan Matthew Malone Editorial Director Content 10 Fundraisings, 10 IPOs Ainslie Chandler Senior Journalist 18 Privcap’s list of major fundraising and Tanya Klich Associate Editor PE-backed listings to watch for in 2014. Kathleen O’Donnell Media Coordinator Cameron Faulkner Media Coordinator Roundtable: Debt Markets Design 30 What the new year holds for debt markets, with Ben Cecilia Salama Design Coordinator Marzouk of Monroe Capital and Joe Burkhart of Allison Fleming Production Saratoga Investment Contributors Tom Stein Tim Devaney Experts Weigh In 32 The key trends for the year, with FFL’s John Roach and Contacts Aaron Money and Catalyst Investors’ Gene Wolfson Editorial David Snow / From the Archives [email protected] / 646.233.4558 33 Related content from Privcap.com Matthew Malone / [email protected] / 203.554.7261 From Our Sponsors Sponsorships & Sales W.P. Carey: Solutions Financing Gill Torren / [email protected] / 646.233.4559 For subscriptions, please call 855-PRIVCAP or email [email protected] Copyright © 2013 by Privcap LLC Privcap Special Report • Outlook 2014 | January 2014 / 4 OUTLOOK 2014 / SNOW’S NOTES PE BOOM 2.0 The coming upcycle will be powered by surging capital and lowered expectations One after another, unmistakable signs of recovery Coller also found that the majority of LPs expect and renewed vigor are being seen in the private their portfolios to perform in roughly the same equity market. Indeed, market insiders are becom- range over the long term. In prior cycles, returns in ing unafraid to say they expect a major cycle of the low teens were not something that most inves- growth in the asset class. tors openly aspired to, and they certainly aren’t put forth as targets by GPs. But the diminished investor A case can be made that the coming upcycle will expectations, coupled with rising allocations, indicates be even more pronounced than the previous one, real momentum behind new fundraising – investors which crested in 2007. While the next boom may accept private equity as it really is, and they want a Market be bigger, it will be driven by different factors and lot more of it. analysis by have different characteristics than prior cycles: Privcap CEO A key number to watch will be the stand- Popularity–The number-one driver of private equity ard hurdle rate of 8 percent—the IRR above David Snow growth will be its popularity with investors relative which GPs get carry. For now, most market to other asset classes. The evidence is overwhelming participants believe this is the right rate. If GPs that, in the long term, even average private equi- genuinely believe they can deliver 11 percent-plus ty has performed well relative to public markets. returns, they won’t push for a lower hurdle. If you PE looks even better on a relative basis coming out see GPs seeking to negotiate this down, it will be of the Great Recession. A recent Coller Capital sur- the clearest indication yet that private equity’s vey found that even post-recession, about half of performance premium has meaningfully compressed. LPs reported their overall PE program annualized performance at between 11 percent and 15 percent. Denominator–Even LPs not planning on increasing This is down from the 2007 results, but still strong their allocations will need to make new commitments on an absolute basis. based on the expansion of their overall portfolio. With stock markets at all-time highs, private equity “THE NUMBER-ONE DRIVER OF PRIVATE EQUITY GROWTH WILL BE ITS POPULARITY RELATIVE TO OTHER ASSET CLASSES.” -DAVID SNOW Privcap Special Report • Outlook 2014 | January 2014 / 5 OUTLOOK 2014 / SNOW’S NOTES means a more complex mix of ownership structures. Defined Benefit, HNW and retail investors–The pop- ularity of private equity is driving the creation of vehi- cles that expand the population of investors who can participate in the asset class. Some of these formats have existed for a while now, but there is a new urgency from both demand and supply sides to get these ready for prime time. In addition to private-bank feeder funds and the like, new public vehicles are being created to house “alternatives”, although to date there hasn’t been much headway on creating a mutual fund-like vehicle to house reg- ular-way private equity. Otherss, like Pantheon Ventures, are targeting the defined-contribution pension mar- ket as a potential major new source of capital, once the structural issues are solved. Then there’s crowd- sourcing and all the online capital-matching servic- es being launched, wild-card elements that will first play meaningful roles in the startup and VC world before making a dent in the mature-PE world.
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