Direct lenders deployment keeps pace with exponential fundraising Deloitte Alternative Lender Tracker Autumn 2019 Financial Advisory This issue covers data for the fi rst half of 2019 and includes 178 Alternative Lender deals. While this represents a 3% decrease in the number of deals on an LTM basis, the average deal value more than off sets this as evidenced by the strong growth in deployment.
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker editorial team
Floris Hovingh Andrew Cruickshank Shazad Khan Tim Mercorio Partner Director Manager Assistant Manager +44 (0) 20 7007 4754 +44 (0) 20 7007 0522 +44 (0) 20 3741 2051 +44 (0) 20 7007 6841 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Autumn 2019 | Contents
Contents
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Introduction 02
Alternative Lending in action: Case study 06
Alternative Lending in action: This time it's different 10
Alternative Lender Deal Tracker H1 2019 Deals 13
Direct Lending fundraising 20
Insights into the European Alternative Lending market 32
Deloitte Debt and Capital Advisory 43
© Deloitte Alternative Capital Solutions 01 Alternative Lender Deal Tracker H1 2019 Data Introduction 02 | Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker H1 2019 Data Introduction H1 2019 Data Tracker Deal Lender Alternative 2019 Autumn Tracker Deal | Deloitte Lender Alternative Deloitte covers 55 major Lenders Alternative whomis Deloitte tracking with deals across Europe. value more than offthis as evidenced sets strong in deployment.by growth Our report LendingAlternative deals compared to the previous year. However, the average deal that in the 12 months to the end of the fi half of rst 2019,there was a 3% decrease in editionIn of this the Lender Alternative Deloitte twenty-second Deal Tracker, we report Introduction Tracker Deal Lender Alternative Deloitte Whilst the US and China are due to re-start re-start to due are China and US the Whilst bonds. government and gold as such havens safe for equities, including assets, riskier swap to investors drove This future. the in policy monetary of easing continued expect investors suggesting inverted, curves yield UK and US the that was action eff Another this of sheet. ect balance its of down wind the ending was it announcing to addition in 2.00%, to cuts point basis 25 two but one not implementing Fed the with rates, interest US in reduction a to due also were movements these part in though China, and US the between those particularly edginess, increasing this of heart the at are Trade tensions euro. the and dollar 1:1.22 the of against low atwo-and-a-half-year to fell sterling and years two in (3%) fall one-day biggest its suff 500 S&P The ered worse”. “something to pointed signs all August early in though edgy, increasingly become have markets fi year this of start nancial the Since worse? something or landing asoft for heading are we are is, question The time. some for slowing been has economy global The © Deloitte Alternative Capital Solutions decades with its problems compounded by by compounded problems its with decades two fiin its in recession already is fth Italy Europe, in Elsewhere recession. technical a in Germany put would which quarter, third the in continue will this chance afair is There years. six for slowest its June, to year the in 0.4% to slowed growth output 0.1% by annualised quarter meaning second the in shrank economy year. The of has output since the contracted the start confidence has slumped and manufacturing business German globally. surplus trade largest the runs it as exposed especially is exporter, biggest third world’s the Germany, powerhouse, Europe’s data. Markit accordingexperiencing contraction, to IHS are world the around countries of 60% than more where sector, manufacturing the in pronounced effparticularly are ects The growth. slower for aconduit as acting now are growth global and globalisation of era the during created networks political and economic the that ironic sadly seems it and unlikely seems solution comprehensive a means disagreement the of nature wide-ranging the October, in negotiations levels of growth since the fi the since crisis. growth of nancial levels weakest the forecast now and year the of start from forecasts growth GDP global their cut IMF the July in that surprise no as comes therefore it backdrop, this Amongst Ratings. Fitch by downgrade a credit avoiding narrowly country the and minister prime as Conti Giuseppe of resignation the 1937 3 to date to completed Deals LT basis an on flow deal in Decrease Alternative Lender Deal Tracker H1 2019 Data Introduction 03
© Deloitte Alternative Capital Solutions urrently an overhang of un-deployed A good example is Permiras recent €320m unitranche financing in support of Francisco Partners Denmark’s acquisition of EG software, a market where Danish banks patch. their defended notoriously have Furthermore, independent research performed by Deloitte from 50 senior direct shows that whilst managers lending the number of direct lending deals declined by on4% basis deployment an LTM to Jun 2019, numbers remained steady at c. €22.6bn in This follows 2019. H1 an exponential of deployment direct lending in increase €26.8bn€16.7bn, 2017 in 2016, and €38.1bn respectively.and 2018 This data potentially puts cold water on the fears that there is c direct lending capital. In fact, the data support quite the opposite. Not only has lockstep in with remained deployment to a number of sectors, including the casual dining and retail subsectors of the service industry, though no surprise that the manufacturing sector has borne the majority of the initial brunt, including Aston Martin, Lecta, Pro-Gest, Schmolz & Bickenbach and Thyssenkrupp, allof which have suffered from ratings downgrades and pricing pressure. Turning to the Direct Lendingmarket, Alcentra continued the trend of private debt managers on the crusade for ever larger AuM, reaching €5.5bn in its latest round of fundraising. Pemberton also joined the ranks, closing its latest €3.2bn fund in July. As we have previously commented, direct lenders continue to take market share in Europe. This in itself is not new, but what is interesting is that they are beginning to seriously penetrate markets that are dominated by traditional bank lenders. | Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Data2019 H1 Introduction So how long have we got? Difficult to say, though all of the hallmarks of a fragile market are starting to emerge in anger. According to the Financial Times, around 30% ofthe bonds issued by governments and companies worldwide are trading at negative yields and therefore of c.$17tn outstanding debt is being paid for by its own creditors. The concept of making an investment where you are certain to get back less than you paid via the present value of interest and principal if held to maturitydoesn’t sound like an attractive thesis. But it is now a fact of life in the fixed income market. Investors are in effect paying to have someone look after their money. When this many are willing to pay for the “security” of losing only a little bit of money as a hedge against losing quite a lot, you know there’s something deeply wrong in the world. Investors nonetheless remain hungry for yield. Whilst on the subject of leveraged volatility the amongst despite loans, other asset classes, the market charged on unperturbed through the summer period with roughly of pipeline €13.6bn issuance in August. July was alsothe busiest month in the YTD period with total loan volumes in the monthreaching alone. €9.1bn What is interesting is that according the to LCD, size of Europe’s leveraged loan market has doubled in less than five years, now standing at European €201bn. loans remain attractive then, though there are some signs of stress. Whilst this is not evidenced in the default rate of LCDs European Leveraged Loan Index (which remains at zero as of August) the secondary market, which as of the 5th September stood at 94.3%, paints an increasingly negative picture. In the main this is currently limited
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Autumn 2019 A number of indicators therefore point towards a global downturn. As history shows us,yield curve inversions often occur before recessions. As of today, financial markets assume that central banks will come to the rescue by easing monetary policy and with the Federal funds rate at2.00%, the US has scope todo so. Further lowering rates in Europe is however a lot more problematic. On the September 12th Mario Draghi, the ECB’s outgoing president, announced an additional basis 10 point cut to its benchmark rate from -0.4% to -0.5%, the lowest on record. It is for this reason that the ECB also announced thatit would restart its quantitative easing programme, buying €20bn of bonds every month from November until inflation expectations came “sufficiently close to, but below, 2 per cent”, having called a halt to this last December. Alternatively, growth may also get a helping hand from among The mood government. local politicians and policymakers on public sector austerity seems to be turning – both Mario Draghi and his successor Christine Lagarde, have urged euro area countries to use fiscal policy to boost spending. As a consequence, governments are likely to face growing pressure to act against the downturn by increasing public spending and cutting taxes. In late August the new UKgovernment announced significant increases in public spending and a review of the borrowing rules which many believes signals the end of a ten-year programme of debt reduction. As we all know, the UK is not without its problems and remains deep in political crisis. Just two weeks into the job, the country’s new prime minister, Boris Johnson, lost his parliamentary majority and suffered a major defeat in his efforts to extract the UK from the EU when a bill was passed to end the option of a no-deal Brexit October. on 31st Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Autumn 2019 | Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker H1 2019 Data Introduction
fundraising, as private debt funds continue to raise record amounts H1 2019 deals completed of capital even as the economic warning signs are flashing but the asset class is likely to provide a useful source of counter-cyclical credit at the time banks and traditional capital markets players withdraw from the high yield market due to punitive capital retention requirements. Add to this, new funds are entering both the top and bottom of the European market including Golub capital, the US heavy weight looking to set up an office in London, and smaller funds like Alvin and Allseas capital, joining the ranks of Prefequity and Harwood capital offering smaller tickets but flexible capital crossing debt and equity risk. 1 Deals Invariably, more risk has been taken on by some direct lenders in order for deployment to remain in lockstep with funds raised, though in the main, a number of accomplished managers have ran e er an t er uropean raised lower yielding senior opportunity funds to deploy in the more liquid large cap market. These transactions are effectively eating H1 headline figures (last 12 months) the lunch of the traditional syndicated bank market. Large number of LPs currently prefer senior debt focussed funds as they avoid the eal ount natural trap to overleverage at this point in the cycle. From a borrowers’ perspective, the reality is that from a pricing, leverage est o urope eal ount and documentation perspective the direct lending market is as attractive as it has been in recent years in Europe. Undoubtedly, eal ount
Alternative Lender Deal Tracker H1 2019 Data Introduction 2019 H1 Tracker Alternative Deal Lender these attractive conditions will likely be subject to change in the event of further economic deterioration, and we therefore expect est o urope eal ount borrowers will continue to take advantage of this positive environment over the next 6 months.
Borrowers: Access Direct Lending to power growth Businesses rely on access to growth capital, yet due to risk appetite and stringent regulation, banks are more constrained. Bringing in alternative and flexible capital allows companies to grow, yet the market can be overwhelming with numerous complex loan options offered to borrowers. Direct Lenders can offer effective rates with little or no equity dilution of your business, enabling Floris Hovingh Pierre Masset businesses to make acquisitions, refinance bank lenders, Partner – Head of Alternative Partner – Corporate Finance consolidate the shareholder base, and grow activities. Capital Solutions Leader Tel: +44 (0) 20 7007 4754 Tel: +352 45145 2756 To read more, turn to our Direct Lending guide on page 09. Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
04 © Deloitte Alternative Capital Solutions Alternative Lender DealAlternative Tracker H1 2019 Introduction Data Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Autumn 2019 | Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker H1 2019 Data Introduction
European Leveraged Finance Market: Direct Lending is growing rapidly into an asset class of its own
Direct lending has consistently been the fastest growing asset class between 2016 and 2018 with deal volumes growing at a CAGR of 29%.