Institute for Security Studies Situation Report African Security Analysis Programme Date issued: 13 October 2003 Author: Chris Maroleng Distribution: General Contact:
[email protected] Fiddling While Zimbabwe Burns Introduction The death on 20 September 2003 of eighty-one-year-old Vice President Simon Vengesayi Muzenda- staunch ally of Mugabe and veteran nationalist- has intensified the battle about who will succeed President Robert Mugabe. It has emerged that the Vice President’s death has prompted the various factions in the ruling party to begin vying with each other for the vacant second-vice-presidential post. It is widely believed that the appointment of the new Vice President will indicate who Mugabe prefers as his successor in the party and the government. It is possible that Muzenda’s death has meant that Mugabe in particular and ZANU PF in general have had to consider seriously the question of succession sooner than expected - a situation that “could prematurely end the heated succession debate by giving glimpses into the candidate President Mugabe would want to occupy the most powerful office when he retires.”1 More ominous for the ruling party is the fact that Muzenda’s death has left a power vacuum in the deeply divided and province of Masvingo, where the veteran politician acted as a stabilising force, ensuring that infighting did not get out of hand. A permanent split in this key province would inevitably result in serious costs to the governing party. Muzenda’s death has increased the likelihood of the party splitting in this important province, as the two competing factions contest the vacant leadership of Masvingo.