www.africa-confidential.com 21 November 2003 Vol 44 No 23 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 3 Holding the cash Big questions are to be decided Marching to when the MPLA holds its congress President Mugabe’s exit plans are prompting unrest ahead of the in Luanda on 6-10 December: the ZANU-PF party congress selection of the party’s flagbearer and whether the party can tackle History is catching up with President Robert Gabriel Mugabe as he prepares for the party congress in graft in what bankers and diplomats Masvingo next month. Even political allies concede that Mugabe is well into extra time and must use the regard as one of the world’s most congress to set out his exit plan. First, he must find reliable candidates for two key posts: the vice- corrupt regimes. presidency of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) to replace Simon Vengesayi Muzenda, who died on 20 September, and a Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Force to ANGOLA 4replace 60-year-old General Vitalis Zvinavashe, who retired this month. The appointments are not entirely in Mugabe’s gift but unfriendly occupants could sabotage his efforts to secure legal protection Luanda’s money-go- and an acceptable successor in State House. Opposition optimists are convinced that Mugabe will use ZANU-PF’s congress in Masvingo to round announce his retirement. Yet that would leave a lame-duck leader presiding over the world’s fastest Mystery surrounds the ‘social shrinking economy: not an appealing prospect for Mugabe and his shrewd political planners. Sending bonus fund’ set up from proceeds the riot police to break up anti-government and anti-poverty protests was vintage Mugabe, as was the of the oil licence downpayments. Touted as proof that oil investors arrest and brutalisation of more than 100 demonstrators. There’s no sign that Mugabe is tiring of wielding could nudge the government the rungu (big stick, as brandished by chiefs). towards development spending, If Mugabe does decide to cut and run at Masvingo, he looks unprepared for the aftermath. As soon as the fund should total $100 million. he lost presidential immunity, as military commander-in-chief Mugabe would face legal suits holding him responsible for torture – as well as for his alleged role in commissioning the Operation Gukurahundi NAMIBIA 5 massacres by the Fifth Brigade in Matebeleland in the early 1983. Then some 10,000 people, mainly Ndebele, were killed. Attempts to negotiate ‘protection clauses’ for Mugabe are key to any settlement No melting pot between the ruling ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change but despite a wave of secretive talks between the two parties, there has been little progress on terms for Mugabe’s departure. President Nujoma’s most likely successor, Foreign Affairs Minister Hamutenya, is seen as the Accounting for the Matebeleland massacres architect of policies that have made Most probable is the phased departure option, allowing Mugabe to use the Masvingo congress to promote his own people, the Oshivambo, his loyalists, purge the senior ranks of troublemakers and prepare the ground for his exit well ahead of ever more powerful in government the presidential election due in 2008. He wants to negotiate a gracious exit from power after heroic and business. Minorities now demand a federal constitution achievements. That will be difficult, given the corruption and economic chaos accompanying the land offering them some protection resettlement programme. Efforts by Deputy Minister and former Secretary to the Presidency against Oshivambo domination. Charles Utete to identify abuses uncovered a web of corrupt allocations and party in-fighting (AC Vol 44 Nos 4 & 22). This meant that thousand of hectares of formerly productive areas such as Mashonaland SOUTH AFRICA 6 West are lying idle – just as many Zimbabweans face chronic food shortages. Embarrassingly for Mugabe, some officials named are among his key allies. BEE is for business An exiting Mugabe also wants international endorsement – not from the Anglo-Saxon duopoly of Britain and the United States but from fellow African leaders and leaders in Europe, Asia and Latin Foreign investors are asking America. Even that hasn’t worked out as planned. Although France delights in cocking an occasional whether the ANC government’s plans promoting black snook at Britain’s ineffectual attempts to bring Mugabe to heel, it has signed up to the mildly punitive empowerment and transfer of European Union restrictions on top-ranking ZANU-PF officials and senior military officers. shares to black-owned African leaders regard EU or Commonwealth sanctions as an ugly precedent which one day might hit conglomerates will be compatible them but few of them (bar Namibia’s Sam Nujoma) show much enthusiasm for Mugabe’s brand of with Pretoria’s conservative ‘Afro-Catholic Stalinism’, mainly because of the economic damage it has wrought in Southern Africa. market-led economic strategy. Mugabe scores high marks for anti-Anglo-American rhetoric, beating even his ally, Libya’s Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi. Concern for his international standing has led Mugabe to pressure Presidents POINTERS 8 Olusegun Obasanjo and Thabo Mbeki to lift the ban on him attending the Commonwealth summit in Abuja, Nigeria, on 5-8 December (see Pointer). Nigeria’s Obasanjo and South Africa’s Mbeki make up Commonwealth, the troika of Commonwealth leaders, along with Australian Premier John Howard, which has been Congo-Kinshasa/ delegated the task of assessing whether Mugabe’s government has made enough political progress for the modest sanctions to be lifted. Rwanda & France/ Obasanjo and Mbeki dislike Howard, whose posturing can appear racist, more than they like Mugabe. Africa They were looking for reasons to lift sanctions but Mugabe’s tactics – pressing treason charges against 21 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 23

June 2000 parliamentary elections: speakers. They believe it’s their turn at the top. The Ndebele and ZANU-PF majority related Kalanga, who are now core opposition supporters, make up MDC majority KOREKORE some 20 per cent, with the remaining 5 per cent consisting of the ultra-

100 kilometres Mashonaland minorities, the Shangaan, Tonka, Venda and whites. Mashonaland Central Late Vice-President Muzenda was a kingmaker in Masvingo 50 miles West t as E Province, leading one of the two main Karanga factions. Current crises ZEZURU d A n K la have exacerbated tensions among the Chishona-speaking groups and N a O n T o h with the Ndebele-speaking groups, which formed the unified ZANU- s a PF in 1987 when the leader of the Zimbabwe African People’s Union, M Matabeleland , signed a unity pact with Mugabe. North ZIMBABWE MANYIKA NDEBELE Midlands Manicaland Under that pact, the unified party would have two vice-presidents, KARANGA one from each party, ZANU and ZAPU, making up the new ZANU- PF. Historically, Muzenda was a ZANU man so his replacement must K A Total population: L be drawn from the ZANU wing of the party. That rules out the busy A NDAU 12 million N Shona-speakers (75%): G Masvingo Minister for Special Affairs, , who as National Chairman KARANGA, KOREKORE, A of ZANU-PF ranks third in the party hierarchy currently. MANYIKA, NDAU, ZEZURU Matabeleland Ndebele and related South Highly regarded by South Africa’s Mbeki, John Nkomo wants SHANGAAN groups (20%): VENDA KALANGA, NDEBELE Pretoria’s backing for a deal with the opposition MDC. Nkomo is Others (5%): being flown around Southern Africa in a jet belonging to Anglo SHANGAAN, TONKA, VENDA, WHITES American and explaining the Mugabe endgame to anxious South opposition leader , closing down the independent African businessmen. Daily News and crushing protest demonstrations – don’t help them. In domestic politics, Nkomo has a mountain to climb (mainly Shona However, Obasanjo, who has assured some of his ministers that prejudice against his Ndebele ancestry) to get the presidency. His best Mugabe will not be excluded from the summit, knows he will look an chance is that his studiously loyal but pragmatic stance may make him Uncle Tom if he excludes Mugabe. Under Obasanjo’s military the safest pair of hands and least bad alternative to other frontrunners. government in 1978, Nigeria won plaudits from front-line states for Barring such an upset, the battle for the vice-presidency and for the nationalising the Nigerian assets of British Petroleum, whose Rhodesian Mugabe succession is between the big battalions: sanctions-busting operations had been revealed to Nigerian diplomats ● The Zezuru group – former ZDF Commander Lieutenant Gen. by (not entirely altruistic) executives from Roland ‘Tiny’ Rowland’s Tapfumanei Solomon Mujuru (aka Rex Nhongo); his wife Joyce Lonhro conglomerate. Mujuru (aka Spill Blood); the Air Force Commander, Air Marshal Perence Shiri; Minister of Defence . Gay gangster rapper ● The Karanga groups – one led by ailing firebrand So Obasanjo would be embarrassed to uphold a British and Australian and Air Marshal and the other, bigger and richer, veto on Mugabe. The combination of Britain’s failed Zimbabwe led by parliamentary Speaker , Zvinavashe policy, Mugabe’s rampant homophobia and recent rumour-mongering and Foreign Minister . about the British royal family conjure up a nightmare for Whitehall’s The strongest contenders from each group respectively are diplomats. Sekeramayi and Mnangagwa. Sekeramayi owes his ascendancy to his We hear a compromise was discussed during Obasanjo’s visit to friends and backers, particularly Mujuru, as much as his political Harare on 17 November: either Mugabe turns up late at the skills. Although he’s held the State Security and then the Defence Commonwealth summit in Abuja, avoiding handshakes with Queen portfolios, Sekeramayi has kept a surprising number of friends. Elizabeth II or Prime Minister Tony Blair, or he arrives in Abuja a few Gregarious and not imbued with much natural authority, he would get days later for the grandest of state visits. In exchange, he would be the top job only if his backers faced down all the other candidates. expected to make a substantial political announcement, such as his Critical for Sekeramayi is his ability to win the backing of fellow retirement or a breakthrough in talks with the MDC. Zezuru Shiri and Mugabe. Shiri, who believes he will be running the Such a manoeuvre would be a useful backdrop to the party congress. military soon, is keener than Mugabe on Sekeramayi. On paper, the choice of ZANU Vice-President (and by extension, the national Vice-President) is decided by congress delegates’ votes. ‘Son of God’ However, Mugabe could have pre-empted that by appointing his own Mugabe still favours Mnangagwa (reflected in his sobriquet, ‘Son of man and challenging the traditionally craven party congress to vote it God’). Mugabe’s enthusiasm is tempered, though, by party sentiment: down. That means either he’s worried about his support in the party Mnangagwa, despite intensive lobbying and sponsorship of rising or he’s already managed to lock up the vote through backroom provincial politicians, is feared rather than loved. He was decisively manoeuvres. ZANU-ologists suspect the latter. defeated by John Nkomo in a contest for the national chairmanship at Party squabbling over the best candidate for Vice-President, and the last party congress in 1999. thus frontrunner to succeed Mugabe, shows the depth of internal Moreover, Mnangagwa lost his KweKwe seat in the 2000 elections, divisions. Rival candidates are discussed in terms of their regional and even though his supporters drove the victorious MDC candidate out of ethnic constituencies – Mashonaland/Zezuru, Masvingo/Karanga or town and burned down his house. Mnangagwa is widely loathed in Matebeleland/Ndebele – rather than competence. Matebeleland, where along with Shiri, he is blamed for organising the Ethnic arithmetic now dominates political calculations (see Map). Gukurahundi attacks on ZAPU supporters and their families. He was Chishona-speaking groups – Karanga, Korekore, Manyika, Ndau and also identified by a 2002 United Nations report as a key figure in a Zezuru – make up about 75 per cent of the population. Karanga form shadowy network of political and business interests in Congo-Kinshasa. the biggest group, probably more than half of all native Chishona- However, Mnangagwa is by far the wealthiest contender and has

2 21 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 23 used his money (and that of his business backers) effectively in on several business projects in Congo-K) but might even stand for persuading party delegates to support him at the Masvingo congress. president if the political and economic meltdown continues. Like Mujuru and Sekeramayi, he has placemen in the military and The battle for the ZDF command looks less complex, probably a intelligence services who can obtain and distribute useful information. contest between frontrunners Chiwenga and Shiri, who is also afflicted Lobbying for ZANU-PF congresses starts at the ward and district by health problems. In his favour, retired Tungamirai argues that it’s level with officials who select the provincial delegations to the now the turn of the Zimbabwe Air Force to take the ZDF command. national congress. There is some grassroots backing for Mnangagwa: Nevertheless, Shiri is still reviled for his command role in the some are reassured by his pragmatism and others believe he would be Gukurahundi massacres, his attempts violently to evict 96 poor families one of the few able to turn post-Mugabe chaos into order. from his 3,600-acre (1,440-hectare) Eirin Farm in Marondera and his If Mugabe openly endorses Mnangagwa for vice-president (and diamond dealings in Congo. Mugabe’s instincts would be to appoint his ultimately the succession) that would win over the waverers at congress. relative Shiri but he will be mindful of the political baggage in an As one ZANU wag remarked, Mnangagwa could use the same increasingly unstable situation. Even Mugabe would be worried about returning officers who secured Mugabe’s disputed presidential victory a serious power struggle in the military. in February 2002. The two men trust each other and even share the same sense of humour. The Mugabe family’s and Mnangagwa’s business interests are intertwined, having been recently restructured ANGOLA (to be ‘sanctions-proof’) by a group of wealthy white Zimbabweans, and their British and South African associates. Holding the cash Mugabe’s legacy Mugabe believes Mnangagwa wouldn’t change his policies although The President has promised not to stand for many expect a strong tilt to market forces under his leadership. Yet the re-election: don’t hold your breath big risk for Mugabe is that endorsing Mnangagwa could prompt a Big questions are meant to be settled when the ruling Movimento rebellion, split the party and even hasten his own exit. Mnangagwa has Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) holds its congress in Luanda earned the enmity of Lt. Gen. Mujuru and his hardline wife Joyce in on 6-10 December (AC Vol 44 No 8). They include the selection of the Mashonaland, as well as ZANU-PF officials in Matebeleland. There MPLA’s presidential candidate (therefore, probably, the successor to is also tactical opposition from supporters of Zvobgo and Tungamirai President José Eduardo dos Santos) and whether the party will do drawn from rival groups of Karanga in Midlands and Masvingo. anything about corruption, in what many bankers, diplomats and decent All this argues for Mnangagwa to allow Sekeramayi to slug it out for citizens regard as one of the world’s most corrupt regimes. the vice-presidency with another contender, such as former Finance The same people want the government to do something effective Minister . Thus Mnangagwa could appear to stand about post-war reconstruction. The International Monetary Fund has above the fray as the younger generation battles it out; his bid for the estimated that US$4.3 billion disappeared from government accounts in presidency could then be better synchronised with Mugabe’s preferred 1997-2002, vastly more than official spending on social programmes exit date. That makes sense as long as Mnangagwa’s health holds out. over the same period, which took just 8 per cent of the national budget. Oddly, party rebel and former Secretary General has Defence devours well over a third of government revenue, even though become Makoni’s cheerleader in the race for the vice-presidency. it’s some 18 months since the civil war ended, after the death of Jonas This will ensure an interesting and high-volume contest. Savimbi, leader of the rebel União Nacional para a Independência If politics were a rational activity, Makoni would easily win the Total de Angola (UNITA) in February 2002. vice-presidency and succession struggle: untainted by years in government, as ZANU-PF leader he would undermine much of the Low expectations opposition MDC’s appeal and would quickly convince the International Reform-minded party members do not expect much from the party Monetary Fund and World Bank to turn on the aid taps again. congress – only the fifth such event since the MPLA was set up in 1956 However, Makoni the technocrat doesn’t come close to ZANU’s and the first in peace-time. It will pick both the party president and its heavy-hitter category and comes under suspicion every time a Western Political Bureau and Central Committee. At the last congress, in diplomat says something kind about him. December 1998 as Angola slipped back into war, party stalwart Lopo One rumour circulating is that more reform-minded soldiers such as do Nascimento mounted a serious challenge for the MPLA presidency. the Commander, Lt.Gen. Constantine Dos Santos’ aide carefully oversaw the vote-count. Chiwenga, would back a free rein on economic policy for a Makoni No ballot papers survived to challenge the claims of Do Nascimento’s presidency and even a power-sharing deal with the MDC, provided he backers that their man had clearly won. allowed the generals political control over the military. The party’s power in parliament and beyond has long been eclipsed To complicate matters, more candidates for the vice-presidency are by the imperial presidency and the group in the Futungo presidential throwing their hats into the ring: Foreign Minister Mudenge positioning palace, who have a lock on national finances, managing payments from himself as the candidate who could unite the Karanga and two Mugabe oil-backed loans, arms deals and other lucrative off-budget expenses. favourites – (Mashonaland Central Governor and The MPLA’s democrats want to rebuild the party’s importance but the Minister of State for National Security in the President’s Office) and Dos Santos clique has subverted all efforts to replace the old guard and (Local Government, Public Works and National the party’s internal opposition is chronically weak. Housing). UNITA, no longer in armed rebellion, has been sporadically harassed Amid the excitement of the congress, Mugabe is to appoint a new in its attempts to become a genuine political opposition. The MPLA and ZDF Commander to replace Zvinavashe, who talks about a civilian UNITA (led by Brigadier Isaías Samakuva) have agreed that political career, aiming for the governorship of Masvingo for starters. presidential, parliamentary and local elections should be held all at once He may throw his weight behind Mnangagwa (the two worked closely in late 2005, after a new constitution has been finalised and an electoral

3 21 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 23 Luanda’s money-go-round Mystery surrounds the ‘social bonus fund’ set up from proceeds of the oil fresh competitors. South African banks, which have done well in other licence payments from blocks 31-34. Touted as proof that big oil investors African countries and often offer better service than the established could nudge Angola’s government towards responsible development Portuguese banks, have had a hard time getting into Angola. Citibank is spending, the fund should now contain over US$100 million. Yet no withdrawing its small representative office and moving to London, partly, accounts have been published and reports of its activities are limited to we hear, in reaction to pressure to get involved in unwholesome operations. occasional news items about projects costing a few thousand dollars. In banking as elsewhere, foreign investors are expected to give large Most of the fund has apparently disappeared. So have the claims that, stakes in their Angolan operations to sleeping partners, often from the as Angola’s oil-fired economy starts to deliver profits, outsiders would family of President José Eduardo dos Santos or from people in the risk confronting the government on accountability and social development. Futungo presidential palace who collect their cash in exchange for Luanda’s nomenklatura enjoys near impunity on corruption and diversion permission to operate. That makes investment risky, as security of of public funds. The only serious comments come from the small parties contracts depends heavily on the security of local partners, many of whom and the even smaller independent press. also get exemptions from import duties and other charges, giving them an One notable character is the Public Works Minister, who oversees post- unfair competitive advantage and driving out real businesses. war reconstruction. Francisco ’s business interests The hiring of Britain’s Crown Agents (which does similar work in merge seamlessly into government projects and policies. He and his Mozambique and Nigeria) to oversee customs and excise operations is family have stakes in several construction companies and he takes a close expected to boost receipts to $700 mn. in 2003, compared to $215 mn. for personal interest in the rich agricultural lands in Kwanza Sul Province near 2000, $352 mn. for 2001 and $535 mn. for 2002. Crown Agents will need the capital, where he and other senior Luanda figures own large tracts of all its diplomatic skills to avoid the entrenched interests which currently valuable farmland with mining potential, including a former Portuguese exploit the anarchic customs and excise services. President Dos Santos is colonial farm called CADA, covering an area as big as Luxembourg. said to have given his personal blessing to the company’s operations in In September, Carneiro led a mission to Cape Verde that included Angola, perhaps yielding to persistent criticism from international financial Prime Minister Fernando da Piedade dos Santos ‘Nando’, Petroleum institutions. Minister Desidério Costa, officials of state oil company Sonangol and Those institutions, especially the International Monetary Fund, have Mario Palhares, President of the Banco Africano de Investimentos, criticised Portugal’s bilateral resolution of Angola’s debts of some $1 which has an offshore bank in Cape Verde. BAI, set up by Deputy Prime billion to the Lisbon government and $500 mn. to Portuguese banks. The Minister Aguinaldo Jaime, is Angola’s largest private bank; it is 17.5 per Portuguese Banco Espirito Santo (BES) will lead an operation to issue cent owned by, and manages increasing sums of money for, Sonangol. fully tradable bearer bonds or promissory notes, backed by future oil With access to cheap Sonangol credit and entrenched Sonangol connections, revenues. At best, the deal is a partial debt forgiveness, on terms much BAI is expanding fast. tougher for Angola than those offered under the IMF and World Bank’s This hurts competitors such as the private Banco Comercial Angolano Heavily Indebted Poor Country initiative. (BCA), whose Managing Director Mário Pizarro recently resigned, Notably, the terms compel the Angolan government to offer favourable partly because a group of its shareholders, led by Fisheries Minister terms to Portuguese banks and companies that subscribe to the scheme. It Salomão Xirimbimbi, wanted to sell part of BCA to BAI. BCA had been is an achievement for Portugal’s Prime Minister, José Manuel Durão preparing for Portuguese banks Caixa General de Depositos and Montepiu Barroso, who visited Luanda last month but it is difficult to see exactly to take a stake but Angola’s vested banking interests wanted to keep out what Angola gains.

census organised. A group of 15 small opposition parties called the guessing. Some believe he wants to retire but cannot imagine anyone Partidos da Oposição Civil (POC), irritated by what it sees as UNITA else in charge. As party leader, he would still want to anoint the next connivance with the MPLA’s electoral schedule, wants elections in national president as an ultra-loyal successor with automatic access to 2004 but is unlikely to get them. the oil and diamond money. The draft constitution, some months before final approval, would make the president head of both state and government, and supreme Presidential hopefuls for 2005 commander of the armed forces too, with the power to dissolve 1. MPLA Secretary General João Lourenço, once the natural successor, parliament. The prime minister would have little more than an may have overplayed his hand. He told an interviewer that he ‘does advisory role. The president, though, would lose the power to appoint not exclude himself’ from the race and that a decision by Dos Santos the powerful provincial governors, many of whom developed lucrative to stand ‘would be harmful for his good image and that of the party’. fiefdoms during the war years. Dos Santos resisted the direct election Lourenço had a spat with United States Ambassador Chris Dell, of governors but his officials agreed to a tortuous compromise meant whom he accused of interfering in Angolan affairs by organising to give the governorships to candidates supported by the party which support for the respected Catholic Rádio Ecclésia, which has sometimes wins most votes in all the provinces’ elections. The presidency’s criticised the government. overriding power is meant to be balanced by a Commission for Human 2. Lopo do Nascimento, now an MPLA member of parliament, could Rights, an Alta Autoridade Contra a Corrupção (High Authority challenge again as a prospective reformer but only if he wins election against Corruption) and a constitutional court. Yet it is unclear how to the Central Committee. He remains popular and the strongest they could stand firm against grand corruption. reformist candidate but his enemies could try to discredit him by The main talk is of Dos Santos’ intentions. It seems certain that he reference to his long and complex past. will hold on to the party presidency, less so that he will stand for the 3. António Pitra Neto, Minister for Public Administration, is regarded national presidency. Most insiders seem convinced that he will renege as a safe pair of hands who wouldn’t make waves if Dos Santos retired. on his promise to stand down, meanwhile trying to keep everyone 4. Kundy Paihama, Defence Minister, is a veteran populist who has 4 21 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 23 fallen well short of expectations that he would be a force for reform. the Oshivambo (about half of the 1.8 million population) ever more 5. Fernando da Piedade dos Santos ‘Nando’, Prime Minister, is powerful in politics, business, the army and the civil service. close to Dos Santos but although he would closely follow the current Nujoma is Ngandjera, from a small Oshivambo sub-group, and has pattern, he might not go down so well with the voters. tried to balance the interests of the non-Oshivambo peoples. The most 6. The non-MPLA, independent, would-be candidates tend to be important of these are the Herero (in the centre and east), Damara intellectuals or religious leaders with no significant political support. (centre and west) and Nama (south). That is why some minority Examples are Vicente Pinto de Andrade, a veteran independent leaders privately urge Nujoma to stay on for a fourth, unconstitutional, intellectual often wheeled out on talk shows; Feliciano de Carvalho five-year term or else back contenders including SWAPO’s Vice- Loa, Christian Church Congregation of Afro-European Friendship; President, Lands, Resettlement and Rehabilitation Minister Anália de Victória Pereira, Partido Liberal Democrático; Carlos Hifikepunye Pohamba, who is Oshivambo. Contreiras, Partido Republicano Angolano. Some want a federal system that would devolve power to minorities The MPLA controls the mass media, the political landscape and the and give some constitutional protection against Oshivambo domination. big money. UNITA is supposed to receive state funds in proportion The present constitution, adopted in 1989 under United Nations to the votes it won at the last elections in 1992, making around $15 supervision, provides for a unitary state. The 13 regional authorities million per year. Some payments have already been delayed. UNITA have limited powers and their elected members nominate the members complains of intimidation and harassment of its activists around the of the National Council (upper house). The regional boundaries are country, particularly by the Defesa Civil, a ‘civil defence’ force geographic, not ethnic. controlled by government. Attempts to build a party business empire In the Caprivi region, a secessionist campaign was begun in the late require the President’s say-so and could distract UNITA’s leaders. 1990s by Mishake Muyongo. He claims that the Caprivians have been marginalised and that development projects are selectively Transition or extinction? channelled to the four north-central regions that are SWAPO’s UNITA cannot be entirely written off, though it still lacks a leader with Oshivambo power base. Back in the 1980s, he was ousted from the weight of Savimbi, has no clear ideology and has not spoken out SWAPO’s vice-presidency for promoting separatism, then lost the on corruption and the budget. Its most popular leaders are Samakuva presidency of the opposition Democratic Turnhalle Alliance of Namibia and Abel Chivukuvuku; General Paulo Lukamba ‘Gato’ has put (DTA) for the same reason; he now lives in Denmark, which refuses himself out of the running but could perhaps play a spoiling role in to send him home. future (AC Vol 44 No 3). Samakuva tries to reach out to some of the Some 120 Caprivians are on trial in Grootfontein on treason small elite parties in Luanda but they lack popular support. charges, mostly relating to the abortive armed attack on the Caprivi UNITA needs to widen its appeal beyond its usual supporters regional capital of Katima Mulilo in August 1999; Muyongo had among the Ovimbundu people of the interior. Potential allies are Lino already got away via Botswana. Some of the accused say they Bernardo Tito’s Partido do Renovação Social (PRS), strong in the belonged to Muyongo’s Caprivi Liberation Movement (CLM), most diamond-rich north-east; and the Frente National para a Libertação are civilians detained by the army and the paramilitary Special Field de Angola in the north-west. Both parties are divided by jealousies and Force (SFF). All were locked up without trial for over three years, rivalries which the MPLA gleefully fosters with its cash and intelligence during which several were tortured and some died; some said they had services; the FNLA’s ageing Holden Roberto is challenged by Lucas been illegally abducted from Zambia with the connivance of the Ngonda. Anyhow, there is no sign that the regional parties are close Zambian police. After the Supreme Court ruled that they were entitled to signing up to a strong and lasting alliance. to legal aid, the trial began in October this year. Nor will the domestic political timetable be much affected by mounting pressure for economic reform from the USA, European Bundesregierung für Namibia Union and non-governmental organisations. Donor countries are still Another ex-DTA member of parliament, Paramount Chief Kuaima tip-toeing around the idea of organising a major pledging conference Riruako of the Herero, campaigns for a federal system modelled on sometime next year. In general, though, they are pleased that the Germany’s. Namibia was once a German colony and last month, distorted war economy is gradually evolving into something more Riruako was there to seek support for federalism and demand recognisable. Plenty of opportunities, not to mention strategic oil, compensation for the Herero genocide of 1904-08. Riruako claims await international business. that government and semi-governmental agencies are dominated by SWAPO and the Oshivambo. He says: ● NAMIBIA The commanders of the Namibia Defence Force (NDF) are 100 per cent Oshivambo (mainly Kwanyama, like Hamutenya); the same applies to the SFF, recruited from former SWAPO guerrillas. ● Ministers and deputy ministers are 95 per cent Oshivambo. No melting pot ● Almost all ambassadors are Oshivambo (although Peter Katjavivi, Marginalised minorities campaign for a a Herero and former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Namibia, German-style federal system of government has just been appointed Ambassador to the European Union). Oshivambo run almost all parastatal companies and get most Namibia’s delicate inter-ethnic balance, carefully maintained since government bursaries, loans for housing and new businesses, and land Independence in 1990 by President Sam Nujoma, is the hot political reform and resettlement projects; unlike those of the Damara, Nama topic. After much uncertainty, Nujoma will retire next year when his and Herero, the traditional Oshivambo lands were not taken by term runs out and a special congress of the ruling South West Africa German or South African settlers. Riruako claims that many educated Peoples’ Organisation (SWAPO) will pick his successor. The almost Herero have lost their public-sector managerial positions to Oshivambo, certain winner, Foreign Affairs Minister Hidipo Hamutenya, is seen citing the former Director of Elections, Joram Rukabe, the former by his critics as the architect of policies that have made his own people, Auditor General Fanuel Tjinghaete and Vice-Chancellor Katjavivi.

5 21 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 23

Riruako also argues that SWAPO’s many Herero have few ministries; their deputy ministers are Rick Kukuri, long-standing Deputy Finance SOUTH AFRICA Minister; Asser Kapere, Deputy Minister of Works; Kaire Mbuende, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. The former Deputy Minister of Mines and Energy, Emmanuel Ngatjizeko, was recently promoted to Director General of the National Planning Commission. Other senior BEE is for business Herero are Mose P. Tjitendero, Speaker of the National Assembly, President Mbeki shifts responsibility for black and the Minister without Portfolio in the President’s Office, empowerment to the business sector Ngarikutuke Tjirange, who is also SWAPO Secretary General. Riruako says he withdrew his National Unity Democratic Organisation Can government plans for black empowerment and the transfer of from the DTA because its President, Katuutire Kaura, a Herero, did equity to black-owned businesses work in tandem with its market not argue the case forcefully enough. economic strategy? That is the question that foreign investors are The traditional chiefs of the Hambukushu, Kwangali, Sambyu and asking as government officials insist that much more must be done Cxerccu tribes of Kavango region in the north-east took their grievances than in the last decade of assisted corporate sales to a new black share- to Nujoma himself and also complained about encroachment on their owning class. Typical of that strategy is the 17 November announcement traditional lands by their Kwanyama neighbours, some of whom by African Oxygen that it would sell its 69 per cent stake in Afrox (including Hamutenya himself, and Hadino Hishongwa, Deputy Healthcare to a black consortium for R3.1 billion ($453 million). Minister of Higher Education) are said to have illegally fenced off African Oxygen is the SA branch of British-based BOC Group, once communal grazing land used by the neighbouring Kwangali people, Brin’s Oxygen Group. Afrox reportedly owns 63 hospitals in SA. causing inter-tribal tension in a region usually faithful to SWAPO. The Brenthurst Initiative (BI), named after the Johannesburg home Kavango traditional chiefs also say the northern regions get more than of the powerful mining family, the Oppenheimers, accepts that SA will their share of government development. decline economically unless it raises the growth rate from the present White Namibians, too, complain of racial discrimination. The 2.2 per cent closer to 5-6 per cent. It proposes that faster growth is white-dominated Republican Party (RP) split off from the DTA (AC essential for stability and that the revolution since the African National Vol 44 No 21) because its leader, Henk Mudge, claims the DTA is too Congress took office in 1994 should now be accompanied by a state/ quiet about harassment of white commercial farmers in particular and business-guided economic revolution in which white-owned businesses white Namibians in general. Mudge said that land had been taken must throw their weight behind Black Economic Empowerment (BEE). without compensation by government officials and that whites had The BI’s central proposition is that the burden of BEE cannot simply lost out in public appointments; he cited lobbying by the SWAPO- be imposed on white-owned companies. Black empowerment must be affiliated National Union of Namibia Workers against the appointment linked to, and work in tandem with, economic growth. Business of Koot van der Merwe as Chief Executive Officer of the Social leaders are expected to help to accelerate the economic advancement Security Commission. The union’s leader, Risto Kapenda, is said to of black South Africans, as part of a growth strategy until about 2015, have boasted of his determination to block the appointment of an when BEE should be able to proceed under its own steam. By Afrikaner. embracing BEE, Nicholas (Nicky) Oppenheimer, Chairman of De Beers and head of the family, and his son Jonathan Oppenheimer, Demanding compensation have affirmed their long-term commitment to South Africa and that A group claiming to represent the Nama of the south is threatening to impresses investors at home and abroad. sue the Namdeb Diamond Corporation (government-De Beers diamond producer) for compensation for huge revenues from the Sperrgebiet ‘Racial transformation’ (prohibited area) of southwestern Namibia over the past century. The The proposition is that tax incentives should reward companies that Chairman of Democratic Action for Namaland (DAN), veteran appear ‘racially transformed’ after contributing to BEE. Recently, and politician and journalist Emil Appolus, says Oshivambo appoint particularly at a debate organised by the Gordon Institute of Business themselves to senior jobs in town and regional offices in the south. (under Nick Binnedell, formerly of Witwatersrand University Business The government, says Appolus, has failed to help the poverty-stricken School), black business people have voiced three main concerns: Nama and locked them out of state-backed joint ventures with foreign ● Tax incentives for ‘white’ companies could be seen as black people companies in diamonds, fisheries and grape cultivation. helping to pay for old racial wrongs; companies should not be rewarded DAN wants a federal system. Appolus points to the edging out of for doing their duty. former Prime Minister Hage Geingob, a Damara, dropped by Nujoma ● The incentives could reduce government resources for tackling after senior Oshivambo said they would not accept an outsider as party unemployment and poverty and fostering socio-economic development. leader; many Oshivambo leaders believe that since they are in the ● They will duplicate existing government incentives such as majority, they should get the top jobs. Minority leaders also challenge preferential employment programmes. official claims that more than half the population is Oshivambo, Black business leaders may fear that if they get tax incentives, they pointing out that there are several Oshivambo subgroups. The figure too will be seen as fat cats. Yet insiders say the proposals are flexible; they prefer, taken from the United Nations Development Programme, sluggish white-owned companies will get no incentives while better 1992, is 49 per cent; demographers regard this as more reliable since ideas will be considered. Tax benefits could give BEE transparency the 2001 census counted people by region not by ethnic group. and provide some of the certainty which investors demand. The critics – Herero, Nama, Kavango and white – argue that even The economic rules are changing. President Thabo Mbeki’s if over half of the population is Oshivambo, their grip on business and government is preparing laws to regulate empowerment, create a BEE politics is out of proportion. As part of his leadership campaign, Advisory Council and invent sectoral ‘charters’ to promote black Hamutenya has been wooing minority groups. They fear that, once in participation. His International Investment Council (IIC) – a dozen or power, his instinct would be to consolidate Oshivambo hegemony. so international business executives who advise him on investment

6 21 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 23 policy and ‘marketing the country’ – had accepted the broad-based Detailed empowerment charters have been negotiated between BEE policy, even with its short-term setbacks. These include the cost government and business, first in the oil industry, then mining, and this to the economy of collapsed BEE ventures and of filling positions month, in banking. For example, banks seek to ensure that black other than on merit and, more critically, deterring potential foreign senior managers rise from 10 per cent to 20-25 per cent by 2008; in investors by coercive race employment quotas or over-optimistic middle management, from 17 to 30 per cent and in junior management, equality targets. to 40-50 per cent. The information technology sector, now mainly The IIC, which includes business leaders such as Niall Fitzgerald white, is working on its own empowerment charter. In December, of Unilever, Sir Anthony O’Reilly (previously ‘Tony’) of Independent Mbeki called for a national transformation charter to prevent another Newspapers and Jürgen Schrempp of DaimlerChrysler, has been collapse of confidence like that experienced over mining; it is taking meeting Mbeki twice-yearly behind closed doors. Those who accept shape (and some white middle-managers are worried). targets for black ownership and black involvement in management At the BI’s launch in the Oppenheimers’ wood-panelled study want to extend empowerment downwards, to employee share schemes, among 100 hand-picked guests, Mbeki carefully kept his distance promotion of black middle-managers, franchise operations and from the tax incentive proposals. His Finance Minister, Trevor favouring black-owned and black-run companies in sub-contracts. Manuel, had cited the practical problems of administering a differential Business leaders have tried to persuade Mbeki that equity transfers tax system, while his Trade and Industry Minister, Alec Erwin, points are an unreliable yardstick since they can fail for extraneous reasons, out that there are already incentives to reward ‘transformed’ companies. such as a company’s share price falling. At one closed meeting when Probably neither Manuel nor Irwin inflexibly opposes rewarding the President persisted in emphasising black ownership, Schrempp, an ‘racially transformed’ companies and the debate is widening. Frank old friend of Mbeki’s who owns a resort house near Cape Town, Savage of the US-based Alliance Capital, who also sits on Mbeki’s dismissed the argument with oaths more suitable for a missed putt on IIC, argues that tax incentives may be useful but are not always the best the golf course. The other business leaders present were impressed by way to attract foreign capital. the DaimlerChrysler Chief Executive’s robust engagement with the Recently, Mbeki has been outlining policies to balance but not usually tetchy Mbeki. challenge the emphasis on growth. Finance Minister Manuel asked parliament this month for an additional R37 bn. (US$5.54 bn.), largely Bill Gates loves BEE for a public-works programme to create a million jobs, and to extend In the luxury malaria-free game park of Shamwari on the eastern social welfare for children and the poorest of the poor. Manuel also seaboard, the IIC presented a united front at a brief media conference. signalled that the state would spend R12 bn. ($1.8 bn.) on anti- Percy Barnevik, former head of the Swiss-Swedish conglomerate retroviral drugs for HIV/AIDS sufferers. These pre-election ABB (formerly Asea Brown Boveri), said members were convinced supplementary appropriations signalled the first major intervention by that BEE was essential to the nation’s long-term economic health, government to bring the 40 per cent of workers who are unemployed even with its short-term disadvantages. And on a visit a few days later, into the economy. United States-based Microsoft’s Bill Gates stressed that the Economists such as Stellenbosch’s Professor Sampie Terreblanche, government should pay more heed to empowering employees. the socialist-orientated trades union federation, the Congress of SA The investors at the IIC meeting came away convinced that Mbeki Trade Unions and Tony Leon’s opposition Democratic Alliance will not sacrifice macro-economic management to black empowerment. (DA), argue that the lives of black South Africans have deteriorated A week after the IIC gathering on 25-26 September, he met the Black since apartheid ended. Mbeki insists that the affluent, first-world (and Business Working Group which, for the first time included leaders of mainly white) sector of the economy must be the mechanism that the white English-speaking and Afrikaans business groups. They elevates the poor, closing the gap so that the two can be integrated. presented a common front, backing the government’s BEE policy and Black bosses, too, have come to accept a broader view of accepting a direct role in poverty eradication and job creation. empowerment as it becomes clear that BEE transactions do not So far, though, little more than one per cent of shares listed on the necessarily lead to a significant transfer of ownership. So far, they Johannesburg Stock Exchange is owned by blacks, half of them by the have not become fully involved in job creation, poverty eradication Motsepe family trust. Several high-profile empowerment deals – and social reforms. That is about to change. Mbeki has succeeded in notably Mzi Khumalo’s Consolidated Investments (using assets from his first objective: to pass much of the responsibility for black Anglo American) and Saki Macozoma’s New African Investments empowerment and poverty eradication to the business community. Limited (NAIL), have flopped. More promise has been shown by Tokyo Sexwale’s Mvelaphanda Holdings, also a former property of Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at De Beers and Anglo, and by Patrice Motsepe’s Rainbow Minerals 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. (AC Vol 44 No 20), in a three-way tie-up with Anglo-Vaal and Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Harmony Gold (the world’s fifth biggest gold mine). If international Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk support for BEE, sparked by the Oppenheimer show of confidence, and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa demonstrates real promise, investors can stop worrying about official Confidential in advance: interventions and prescriptions of the proportion of assets to be Institutions: Africa £328 – UK/Europe £385 – USA $970 – ROW £502 transferred to blacks. Corporates: Africa £424 – UK/Europe £472 – USA $1093 – ROW £589 These fears surfaced last year, when the market got the jitters after Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £91 or USA $131 African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 somebody leaked a draft government mining charter which decreed All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept the transfer of 51 per cent of mineral rights to black owners within a American Express, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. generation. Billions of rand flowed out and have still not all flowed Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 1354, 9600 back, although the draft charter was amended to halve the target, Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2XG England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 778315 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 471775 transferring 26 per cent of the mining industry to black owners over the Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. same period. ISSN 0044-6483

7 21 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 23

Roman Grynberg, an advisor to developing Certainly Rwarakabije led the politically credible Pointers countries at the World Trade Organisation meeting – and in Kigali’s eyes perhaps more dangerous – in Cancún, Mexico (AC Vol 44 No 19). McKinnon wing of the FDLR but the génocidaire wing is accused Britain’s Department of Trade and alive and operating in the Congo maquis. Rwanda COMMONWEALTH Industry of a ‘neo-colonial mentality’, adding the has not revealed whether its agents have contacted mantra of all Commonwealth secretaries general: FDLR militants such as Col. Mudacumura, ‘We don’t take instructions from Whitehall’. Many wanted for class 1 genocide crimes. Don’t RSVP members think the trade discussions in Abuja will Last week’s events follow several local treaties The Commonwealth, some say, is held together be far more important than Zimbabwe. between former Kinshasa-backed Mai-Mai by its rows over Southern Africa. The latest, a fighting units and RCD-Goma officials in Kivu- rumoured move against giving New Zealand’s CONGO-KINSHASA/RWANDA Sud, effectively isolating the FDLR. The Don McKinnon a second term as Secretary Rwarakabije surrender further isolates the hard- General, was later said to be a Zimbabwean plot. line FDLR militants and has prompted several The story suggested African hostility to Surrender! more Hutu fighters to hand themselves over for McKinnon, and that an unidentified Sri Lankan Rwandan intelligence scores full marks for disarmament and demobilisation to the UN. would stand. Colombo promptly denied it had a orchestrating the surrender of Hutu rebel leader This is complicated by new charges from a candidate and some African countries – including Paul Rwarakabije on 16 November and senior UN official in Bukavu that thousands of Tanzania and Malawi, which McKinnon was wrongfooting both the United Nations and Rwandan troops had secretly crossed into Congo, then visiting – said they backed him. So did President Joseph Kabila’s power-sharing north of the Goma border, and that Rwandan Nigeria, host of the Commonwealth Heads of government in Kinshasa. Based in Congo- soldiers have still not withdrawn from Government Meeting (CHOGM) due on 5-8 Kinshasa, Rwarakabije had led the Forces Kanyabayonga where they clashed with Kinshasa- December. President Olusegun Obasanjo doesn’t Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), backed fighters loyal to Minister for Regional have much choice: it would be unprecedented and a movement comprised of Interahamwé militants Development Mbusa Nyamwisi. Accused of damaging for a summit host to back the (responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide), helping Rwanda there is Governor of Kivu-Nord undermining of a serving secretary general. Most former soldiers with the old Forces Armeés Eugène Serufuli, whose officials still collect secretaries general face accusations of bias: the Rwandaises and displaced Rwandan Hutu. illegal local taxes and run a private militia without last incumbent, a Nigerian, Emeka Anyaoku was Rwarakabije, who arrived in Kigali by Rwandan reference to the government in Kinshasa to which accused of being anti-Nigerian by the late General government helicopter with his colleagues Colonel he is supposed to be loyal. Sani Abacha’s regime. Jérôme Mgemdahimana (‘Hakim’), Col. Obasanjo knows all about the unhappiness with Claudien Karegeya (‘Ndege’) and Major Simba, FRANCE/AFRICA McKinnon in Southern Africa, especially among was warmly welcomed by Rwandan Defence Force President ’s neighbours. Mugabe Chief of Staff Maj. General James Kaberebe. was furious when the Secretariat confirmed he Neither Rwarakabije nor his officer colleagues Do not pass go wasn’t invited to Abuja, as Zimbabwe is suspended nor the 100 FDLR soldiers who crossed into The gaoling of three senior officials from the Elf from the club. Some speculate that the summit Cyangugu from Bukavu, capital of Congo’s Kivu- oil company is unlikely to be the final act in the may work out a compromise. That might permit Sud Province are to face any charges because the drama that has been unfolding since Paris judge Mugabe to appear right at the end, after British Rwandan authorities have exonerated them of Eva Joly launched her investigation into France’s Premier Tony Blair has left. Britain has always links to the 1994 genocide. pétro-politique. Next for scrutiny are politicians insisted Blair would not greet Mugabe anywhere But Rwarakabije’s surrender was evidently a linked to Elf’s diversion of state revenues in – and he certainly would not be invited to a formal long-prepared coup and shows the extent of Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville and Angola. gathering with Queen Elizabeth II, titular Head of Kigali’s intelligence network in Congo. According Of the three gaoled Elf officials – Loïk le the Commonwealth. to documents seen by Africa Confidential, Floch-Prigent (five years), Alfred Sirven (five Namibia supports Mugabe; South Africa’s Rwandan intelligence secured the free passage of years) and André Tarallo, aka ‘Monsieur position is described as ‘an enigma’. But many the Hutu rebels by paying off several high level Afrique’, (four years) – Tarallo’s testimony on African governments feel that, despite the mess officials of the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Africa will be most sought. Gabon’s President Mugabe has made of his country, the four ‘white Démocratie-Goma (RCD-Goma) such as Col. Omar Bongo is reported by Paris fortnightly La Commonwealth’ countries have treated a hero of Georges Mirindi (implicated in Laurent Kabila’s Lettre du Continent to have been asked by Africa’s liberation harshly and sanctimoniously. assassination), Col. Esperant Masudi, and RCD- Tarrallo’s lawyers to appoint their client They see McKinnon as having blundered, Goma’s Governor of Kivu-Sud, Xavier ambassador to the United Nations Education and especially at the ‘troika’ meeting in March, when Chiribanya. Scientific Organisation in Paris, an expedient used Commonwealth Chairman (and Australian Again this shows high level cooperation by Angola’s President José Eduardo dos Santos Premier) John Howard blocked a between RCD-Goma and Rwandan intelligence. to give diplomatic immunity to his friend Pierre recommendation by Abuja and Pretoria to end But the new military commander for Kivu-Sud Falcone, facing an international arrest warrant. Harare’s suspension. and a Kabila loyalist, Gen. Prosper Nabyolwa, is Bongo rejected the request but had asked French A Commonwealth majority still favours outraged, condemning the RCD-Goma officials President Jacques Chirac to rein in the Joly suspension and would probably prefer a summit for collaborating with Rwanda. enquiry. Perhaps most worrying for the new look not dominated by such a divisive issue or by the UN officials are claiming the Rwarakabije TotalFinalElf (which subsumed the rogue Elf tricky replacement of the Secretary General. surrender ‘cuts the head’ of the FDLR, although it company) and its reforming Director Thierry McKinnon has no visible rival and in late October, does not mean the end of Hutu rebel movements in Desmarest is that some of the more arcane he protested to London about an alleged move to Congo. UN estimates that the FDLR has 15,000 accounting practices uncovered by Joly appear to monitor or muzzle a Commonwealth official, fighters – Rwandan officials reckoned 30,000. persist in Total’s operations in Libreville.

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