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The Business Situation, August 1969

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The Business Situation, August 1969 FEDERAL RESERVERANK OF NEW YORK 155 The Business Situation The economy moved up at a fast clip in the second annual basis, was about the same as in the first quarter.' quarter, and prices again rose very sharply. The increase Real growth in the April-June period eased to an annual in gross national product (GNP) was fully as large as in rate of 2.3 percent, compared with 2.6 percent in the the first quarter, although real growth and the increase first quarter and 3.2 percent in the final quarter of last in final demand were both smaller. Most leading indica- year. Prices in the GNP accounts rose at the first-quarter tors point to the likelihood of further growth in the months annual rate of 4.8 percent, compared with 4.2 percent in ahead, but there are indications of easing in some areas the last three months of 1968. of the economy. Housing starts, under pressure from tight Although the total increase in GNP was about the same mortgage market conditions, dropped in June for the as that in the first quarter, the Sl3.5 billion growth of fifth consecutive month. Also, retail sales at the end of the final spending—total GNP less inventory investment—was second quarter were apparcntly down to a level nearly much more modest than in the earlier quarter when such 2 percent below that of April, though these statistics may spending surged by an unusually steep $20.1 billion. 'ihe tend to understate retail buying somewhat. The recent slower growth of final purchases largely centered in con- ump in the stock market possibly reflects a growing ex- sumer outlays, which rose by a fairly modest $8.7 billion pectation in the business community that the pace of busi- to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $570.7 billion. The ness activity will indeed moderate in the months ahead. moderation in consumer buying was almost entirely in However, other areas of the economy are continuing to nondurables, where spending climbed at less than half show substantial strength. The upward thrust of state and the first-quarter rate; expenditures on durable goods and local government spending shows little sign of slowing. services, however, also grew slightly less than in the Business capital outlays may continue to increase, in part January-March period. On a monthly basis, retail sales because delivery and construction delays apparently held figures showed little buoyancy in the quarter. Following a back planned spending in the first half of the year. Furthcr, large gain in April, retail sales fell in May and—accord- business inventory positions have apparently remained in ing to the advance report—declined again in June. Al- good balance with sales. In sum, while there are sugges- though the advance estimate is frequently subjcct to major tions of slowing in some sectors of the economy, there is revision, it indicates that June sales ran at a seasonally little evidence that financial restraint has as yet sufficiently adjusted level of $28.9 billion, virtually the same as in dampened the excessive pace of economic activity. March. For the April-June period as a whole, retail sales were up from the first quarter, but only because of the OROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN THE strong volume in April. SECOND QUARTER Personal income advanced by a large $16.3 billion in the quarter. reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of The market value of the nation's total output of goods $740.7 billion. The strength in personal income reflected and services continued to rise rapidly in the second quarter. However, an increasingly large share of the ad- cc simply reflected higher prices, and real growth slowed the of Commerce's Wher. According to Department pre- 'The Commerce Department's annual midyear revisionsof the liminary estimate, (JNP rose $16.4 billion (see Chart I) national income and product accounts increased the lirst-quarler annual rate of $925.1 billion. estimate of GNP by $5.3 billion to a level of $908.7 billion. The to a seasonally adjusted revisionsalso raised GNP by S23 billion in 1966. .8 billion in jhe rate of gain, which amounted to 7.2 percent on an 1967, and $5.1 billionin 1968. 156 MONTHLY REVIEW,AUGUST 1969 with a $2.9 billion increase in Chart inventory accumulations RECEIT CHANGESIN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT bringing inventory growth to an annual rate of $9.5 bil- AND ITS COMPONENTS lion. Because this estimate of inventories is based on only Seasonally adjusted two months of data, Commerce Department spokesmen the nature of these estimates for Change horn fourthquarter 1968 Changefrom first quarter to emphasized preliminary to first quartsrl969 second quarter1969 the full quarter. The rise in business inventories through May was chiefly in the manufacturing industries—particu- GROSSNAI1ONAL Fooucr larly in durables manufacturing. But according to the June data, which were not available when the GNP estimates Inyintosy investment I were made, manufacturers' inventories were about un- changed in that month. The second-quarter's increase in Final expenditures \\\- manufacturers' shipments was about in line with the in- Consumer expenditures for ventory rise, and the inventory-salesratio in manufactur- durable goods ing was essentially unchanged. At the trade level, sales Consumer expenditures far rose faster in and than did inven- nondurablegoods considerably April May r tories, and the inventory-sales ratio dipped to the lowest Consumer .xpendfluuesfar services level in seven months. The second $2.7 billion gain in business fixed tesld.nlialconsiruction quarter's investment was smaller than in the first quarter, because structures declined billion. Business fixed invesintent spending on by $0.7 Expend- itures for producers' durables climbed $3.3 billion— FederalGovernment purchases twice the first-quarter rate. Recent surveys of business plans for capital investment had indicated there would be Stol, and localgovernment purchases a large increase in plant and equipment spending in the first half of the followed little thereafte Netexports ofgoods and year, by growth services However, according to the Commerce Department, th —5 0 5 10 15 20 25 anticipated rise in the first half of the year was not fully Billionsof dollars realized, probably as a result of delivery bottlenecks and - Source, UnitedStates Deportmsul of Commerce. construction delays. Thus, spending in the second half of the year may run higher than the earlier surveys had indicated as the shortfall in the first half is made up. Not unexpectedly, spending on residential construction gains in total payroll employment and average hourly dropped to an annual rate of $32.4 billion in the past earnings, as well as some lengthening of the average work- quarter, down $0.9 billion from the January-March pace. week. Disposable income did not rise so rapidly as total According to seasonally adjusted monthly data, private personal income because of the extra April tax payments nonfarm housing starts have fallen steadily since January associated with the surcharge, which were roughly $3.0 when they reached the unusually high annual rate of 1.85 billion at an annual rate. Nevertheless, the $12.3 billion million units. Starts in June were down to an annual increase was sizable, particularly compared with the first rate of 1.42 million units, 70,000 below the May pace. quarter when final tax payments on 1968 incomes were Building permits issued by local authorities in recent also substantial and when higher social security taxes went months have also shown a weakening housing picture. In into effect. In that period, disposable income expanded by June, the permits level was about unchanged, following a only $6.4 billion. Reflecting both moderation inthe growth large decline in May. of consumer demand and the large increase in disposable Total spending by governments at all levels increased income, the savings rate in the second quarter rose 0.4 by a small $2.5 billion, contributing to the slower growth percentage point from the relatively low first-quarter level, of final demand in the second quarter. Federal Gove - reaching a more normal 5.8 percent. ment purchases actually declined $1.0 billion to $10 In the first quarter, a large rise in total final demand billion, as spending for both defense and nondefense pur- was associated with a marked slowdown in the rate of poses moved down. Because of the $2.8 billion July inventory spending. In the second quarter the reverse was pay raise for Federal Government employees, Federal true. A moderation in final expenditures was coupled spending is expected to increase in the current quart MONTHLY REVIEW,AUGUST 1969 157 State and local expenditures in the April-June period con- wage cost increases are increasingly a concern, excess de- tinued to rise about in line with the sharp gains of recent mand still exists. As an indication of the strength of this quarters, and no significant change from this uptrend is demand, raw materials prices have climbed a steep 10 in sight. In the past quarter, such spending amounted to percent in the first half of 1969 alone. The rise in total an annual rate of $111.9 billion, fuHy $3.4 billion higher industrial wholesale prices has been much slower, in good than in the previous period. part because of rapidly declining lumber and wood prices. Settlement of the first-quarter dock strikes brought a According to the preliminary estimate, industrial whole- surge in both imports and exports. Net exports rose by sale prices ruse in July by a relatively small 0.2 percentage $0.5 billion to a slim $2.0 billion annual rate, as the gain point to 112.4 percent of the 1957-59 average, alter re- in exports only slightly exceeded the rise in imports.
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