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Public Disclosure Authorized Overview The Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment A Discussion of Regional Opportunities and Risks Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Overview Report No. 67668-SAS The Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment A Discussion of Regional Opportunities and Risks i Overview The Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment A Discussion of Regional Opportunities and Risks World Bank South Asia Regional Report World Bank Washington, DC iii THE GANGES StrategIC BASIN ASSESSMENT: A Discussion of Regional Opportunities and Risks Disclaimer: © 2014 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 14 13 12 11 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; email: [email protected]. Cover photo: NASA; http://www.visibleearth.nasa.gov/ Cover design: Roots Advertising, Gurgaon, India iv Acknowledgments The Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment is a product contributions from the Nepal Himalayas. Michael of an extensive collaborative effort among many Westphal analyzed historical climate and climate professionals within and outside the World Bank. It change scenarios for the basin. The Center for is an output of the South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI), Environmental and Geographic Information Services which is a partnership of the World Bank and the (CEGIS) in Dhaka, the International Centre for governments of Australia, Norway, and the United Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kingdom that seeks to facilitate regional cooperation Kathmandu, and the International Water Resources in the sustainable use and management of the water Management Institute (IWMI) in India and Nepal resources of the Himalayan Rivers. provided the team a wealth of pertinent information. Mary Paden provided editorial support. The work was led by Claudia Sadoff and Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep of the World Bank. The core team Important contributions were made by Stephanie included Donald Blackmore, Marc Jeuland, Sylvia Borsboom, Biva Chapagain, Genevieve Connors, Lee, Anna O’Donnell, Dale Whittington, Wu Xun, Charles Cormier, Ajaya Dixit, Daryl Fields, Dipak Jorge Escurra, Hrishikesh Patel and Lauriane Cayet. Gyawali, Ejaz Ghani, Drona Ghimire, Natalie The report could not have been produced without Giannelli, Sanjay Gupta, Michael Haney, Christine the administrative support of Sulochana Nepali, Kimes, Khawaja Minnatullah, Siet Meijer, Pratibha Rachel Susan Palmer, Pamela Patrick, and Tara Mistry, Ainun Nishat, Hubert Nove-Josserand, Shrestha. Sanjay Pahuja, R.S. Pathak, Anil Pokhrel, Giovanna Prennushi, Martin Rama, Shyam Ranjitkar, Catherine Specific inputs to this study were provided by a Revels, Bharat Sharma, Mandira Shrestha, Animesh broad range of experts and institutions. In particular, Shrivastava, Ranu Sinha, Ashok Subramanian, the Institute for Water Management (IWM) in Dhaka Catherine Tovey, Rajib Upadhya, George Verghese, developed the calibrated Ganges Basin model Winston Yu and William Young. Individuals too and worked closely with the World Bank team in numerous to name provided extremely useful analyzing the implications of major future scenarios. insights at consultation meetings held with a variety IWM’s work was led by Bushra Nishat and Asif of government and donor partner agencies, and Zaman with guidance from Mahbub-ur-Rahman research, policy, and academic institutions in and Emaduddin Ahmed. INRM Ltd. (Integrated Bangladesh, India and Nepal. Natural Resource Management Consultants) in Delhi developed the calibrated SWAT model for The team benefitted from the advice of a broad the Ganges Basin under the leadership of Ashwin range of colleagues. It wishes to express its Gosain (Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi), R. appreciation for the guidance and support of Srinivasan (Texas A&M University) and Sandhya colleagues within the World Bank including Rao. RMSI Pvt. Ltd., Delhi, supported work on flood Kalpana Kochhar, Roberto Zagha, Susan and drought analysis. E. Somanathan, of the Indian Goldmark, Ellen Goldstein, Jack Stein, Salman Statistical Institute, undertook an investigation of the Zaheer, Rachid Benmessaoud, Gajanand economics of “hard” versus “soft” flood mitigation Pathmanathan, Herbert Acquay, Karin Kemper, and strategies. Don Alford, Richard Armstrong, Julia Bucknall. A special thanks to Ngozi Okonjo- and Adina Racoviteanu estimated glacier melt Iweala and Isabel Guerrero for their guidance in 1 THE GANGES StrategIC BASIN ASSESSMENT: A Discussion of Regional Opportunities and Risks key consultations. The team is also grateful to have Howard, Russell Rollason and Clare Shakya, also received input from two advisory groups outside provided insightful and substantive support to the the Bank: an international Expert Advisory Group, team. comprising David Grey, Glenn Jenkins, Mark New, and Peter Rogers; and the Abu Dhabi Dialogue The team gratefully acknowledges support Group of regional experts. The SAWI development from the SAWI and the World Bank South Asia partners (the Governments of Australia, Norway Regional Integration Unit, and sincerely thanks all and the United Kingdom), in particular Bente Binge, of the individuals and institutions met during the Simon Buckley, John Dore, Semund Haukland, Guy development of this work. 2 Overview Background All countries in the basin benefit from the Ganges and suffer from its extremes; all could benefit The Ganges River Basin—the world’s most populous more and suffer less from the devastating floods river basin—stretches from the highest mountains and periodic droughts which routinely undermine in the world to the tidal delta of Bangladesh. The development in the region. This study explores Ganges River rises in the Himalayan border regions development opportunities in the basin – for of China, Nepal, and India, and runs 2,500 example in hydropower, irrigation and disaster risk kilometers across the Indian subcontinent to the management – against a backdrop of extreme mangrove forests of the Sundarbans, finally emptying climate uncertainty, rapid population economic into the Bay of Bengal. The basin encompasses growth and urbanization. a multitude of glaciers, thousands of tributaries, vast plains and an extensive, fragile delta. The The Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment amazing variety of ecosystems in the Ganges River Basin provides homes for the subcontinent’s wealth The objective of the Ganges Strategic Basin of flora and fauna, many of them under stress or Assessment (Ganges SBA) is to build knowledge and endangered. promote an open, informed dialogue on the shared opportunities and risks of cooperative management The Ganges watershed is a complex interplay of in the basin. Advances in remote sensing, intense monsoon rains and runoff, glacier and hydrological modeling and forecasting capabilities, snow melt, and groundwater resources. The unique and open access data platforms now make an geography of the region creates this interplay: unprecedented wealth of information available to summer clouds drift up from the Indian Ocean all. These advances offer the basin countries an and the Bay of Bengal, laden with moisture; are opportunity to ‘leap frog’ the technologies and trapped by the high Himalaya; then rain down on methods they use to gather, manage, analyze, and the Gangetic plain. Most precipitation in the Ganges share information. The Ganges SBA identifies River Basin is concentrated into only a few months ways in which information can be generated and each year. Because of dramatic seasonal monsoons used to strengthen planning and decision making and high climate variability, much of the region is in the Ganges Basin, and seek evidence-based routinely affected by flood and drought. opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation. The daily lives of 655 million inhabitants depend on The Ganges SBA highlights the complexity of the the water that the Ganges and its tributaries provide Ganges basin and demonstrates an urgent need for drinking, agriculture, hydropower generation,