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Tesla Inc 3 Takeaways from 4Q20 Earnings Call

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Tesla Inc 3 Takeaways from 4Q20 Earnings Call 一般風險披露聲明 本報告所載的資料只屬一般簡介，並不能作為專業法律、財務或其他意見或行事依據，亦不應被理解為購 入、出售或投資任何產品之建議、邀請、廣告、或引導。輝立證券集團("本公司")力求但不保證有關資料準 確或完整，客戶不應根據本報告或當中資料作出任何決定。本公司對本報告內資料所引致之任何損失或虧 損概不負任何責任。假如你對本風險披露聲明的內容有不明白或對投資產品未有足夠認識，請與本公司查 詢並詳盡了解。如要做任何投資，亦應尋求獨立的專業意見。 海外投資產品不受香港聯合交易所/其他香港監管機構監管，而此類產品亦不受賠償基金的保障。在其他司 法管轄的市場交易，或會涉及額外的風險(如政府政策的改變、稅務和政治發展等)。因此，你應瞭解買賣海 外投資產品的性質及風險，並就本身的投資經驗、風險狀況及其他相關因素，小心考慮自己是否適合參與 該等買賣。如有任何疑問，應咨詢專業意見。 投資涉及多種風險，包括市場、匯率、波動性、流動性、信貸/對手方、評級下降、監管及政治等。投資產 品價格可升可跌，並可能非常波動，會變成毫無價值，甚至被要求存入額外的保證金，而蒙受損失。投資 者作出任何投資決定前，應細閱各投資產品之銷售文件所載的條款及條件，瞭解該產品的風險、特性及限 制等是否適合其個人的財務狀況、投資目標及可承受之風險。本公司或其行政人員、董事、分析員或僱員 可在報告所述之公司擔任董事，並可能持有本報告所述投資產品，或可以委託人或代理人身 份 買賣此等產 品。本公司可不 時 為本報告所 提 及之公司，提供 投資 銀 行或其他 服 務、或 向 其 招攬 投資 銀 行或其他業務。 本報告內的資料為本公司 版權 所有。在 沒 有本公司事前 書面許 可下，不可以 部 分 地 或 全部地複製 本文件。 證券及債券交易風險 證券價格有 時 可能會非常波動。證券價格可升可跌，甚至變成毫無價值。買賣證券未 必 一定能夠 賺取利 潤，反 而可能會 招 致損失。債 券價格有 時較 為 穩 定，但發行人一 旦違約 ，你可能導致損失 全部 本金及應 收 利息 。 Editor : Ivan Lau Tel : +852-2277-6678 e-mail : [email protected] Disclaimer The information contained in the report(s) is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided in the report(s) do not constitute an investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the e investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities(HK) Ltd("PSHK") does not verify such information. PSHK does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor do we take responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or investing in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. PSHK and any of its members will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials available on the reports. The information and/or materials provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials. There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. We recommend that you obtain the advice of your Financial Advisor regarding this or other investment in order to conform to your financial resources and risk preference. PSHK (or one of its affiliates) or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities or commodities referred to herein, and may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer, or a director of PSHK, or its affiliates, may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor opinion expressed in this report shall constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. This firm (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned on the reports. Editor : Ivan Lau Tel : +852-2277-6678 e-mail : [email protected] Tesla Inc 3 Takeaways from 4Q20 Earnings Call U.S. | TESLA INC | EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 3 February 2021 3 Takeaways from 4Q20 Earnings 1. Strong growth in deliveries; momentum to continue. 4Q20 vehicle deliveries grew 61% YoY, Tesla is eyeing 50% growth rates in beating their 44% growth rate in 3Q (Figure 1). This was mainly contributed by rising Model 3 vehicle deliveries and Y deliveries, which accounted for 90% of overall deliveries. Tesla expects vehicle delivery growth to average 50% for multi-years. It expects to “materially exceed this (growth rate) in 2021”. This flags a strong pick-up in deliveries from FY20’s +35.8%. Netflix, Inc. Technical Buy We think Tesla may be able to attain its target, with its new Model 3 upgrades and rollout of ENTRY PRICE US$458.40 Model Y to overseas markets. STOP LOSS US$390.37 TARGET PRICE US$585.00 While sales in the US seemed to have stagnated in the past three years (Figure 2), recent price CLOSING PRICE US$505.87 cuts for Model Y may have improved Tesla’s competitive positioning vis-à-vis peers in the U.S (Figure 3). Tesla has also started to deliver Model Y in China, its second-largest market. Its COMPANY DATA BLOOMBERG CODE NFLX US pricing is on par with competitors such as Nio ES6 and BMW’s X3. O/S SHARES (MN) : 441 MARKET CAP (USD bn / SGD bn) : 235.79 / 320.68 2. Robust pipeline of products and new factories. Tesla expects its factories, Giga Berlin and 52 - WK HI/LO (SGD) : 575.370 / 264.570 More3M Average new Dailyfactories T/O (mn) and : models 7.18 Giga Texas, to start production of Model Y later this year. Volume production should skew towards 2H21. Its Shanghai factory started producing Model Y in late 2020 and is in the process MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%) of ramping to full capacity. CAPITAL GROUP COMPANIES INC 14.4% VANGUARD GROUP INC 7.7% BLACKROCK INC 6.6% A battery-cell factory is also being constructed in the Bay Area. This will reinforce its shift to in- house cell production. Tesla reiterated that the idea behind making its own cells is to help it PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) tackle shortfalls in cell output, not disintermediate its cell suppliers such as CATL, Panasonic and 1MTH 3MTH 1YR LG. Instead, it is urging its suppliers to increase production and “we (Tesla) will take as many Netflix Inc (2.0) 2.4 85.4 S&P 500 (1.8) 6.1 16.0 batteries as they can produce”. This points to expectations of strong demand. PRICE VS. S&P 500 Volume production of its Cybertruck is expected to be in 2022. Tesla Semi’s production is restricted by a short supply of battery cells as resources have been prioritised for cars with 0.70 better margins. This again boils down to its current problem of a shortage of battery cells as global demand continues to outpace production. We believe that once supply improves, Tesla 0.20 will be able to ramp up production to meet growing demand. Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 -0.30 3. Improvements in financials expected. Operating margin was 5.4% in 4Q20, with increased NFLX US EQUITY SPX Index expenses in R&D. Tesla expects margins to expand and remain ‘industry-leading’ in the next few Source: Bloomberg, PSR quarters. In the North America region, operating margins for automobile players averaged to KEY FINANCIALS be around 6% as of 4Q20. Bloomberg consensus for Tesla’s operating margins are 8.5% in 1Q21 Y/E Dec (USD) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 and 9.5% in 2Q21 (Figure 4). Revenue /Bn 8.8 11.7 15.8 20.2 EBITDA /Bn 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 Net Income (adj.) /Bn0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 FCF was US$2.06bn. Management will be focusing on debt reduction. In the latest quarter, it EPS (adj.) 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.1 made an early settlement of US$2bn in convertible notes. With that, debt-to-EBIT improved to P/E 287.9 150.2 99.9 78.4 P/BV 19.9 23.2 22.3 18.7 5.9x from 20.5x in 1Q20. DPS (Cents) Source: Bloomberg With improved liquidity, Tesla can turn its attention to expanding production capacity and investing in infrastructure such as a supercharging network to “get ahead of demand”. Yeap Jun Rong (+65 6212 1856) Research Analyst [email protected] Chua Wei Ren (+65 6212 1857) Research Analyst [email protected] Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE MCI (P) 006/10/2019 Ref. No.: US2020_0003 TESLA INC EARNINGS HIGHLIGHT Round-up We are positive on Tesla. We expect revenue to accelerate in 2021 with its capacity ramp-up and a potential easing of its battery-cell constraints. According to the International Energy Agency, electric cars accounted for only 1% of the global car stock in 2019. Tesla’s share of automobile sales in the US has climbed in recent years, from 0.03% to 2013 to 1.31% in 2019 (Figure 5). We see headroom for further expansion, as the adoption of electric cars is expected to receive a timely boost from the Biden administration’s green drive and policy initiatives from the European Green Deal. Technical analysis Tesla Inc (Current Price: US$872.79) - Technical BUY Buy Spot: 872.79 Stop loss: 727.50 Take profit 1: 964.71 Take profit 2: 1050.00 Source: Bloomberg, PSR Tesla Inc (US: TSLA) had a strong run-up to US$900.40 in January, which broke the top of the CHART LEGENDS pennant resistance (see our report dated 25 January 2021).
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