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TNT 2020 Market Update

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TNT 2020 Market Update Austin MSA Market Update October 2020 Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 1 Impact of COVID19 on the US 1. Federal Funding/Debt 2. Employment 3. Loan Forbearance 4. Business Closures 5. Impact on Young Adults 6. Consumer Confidence 7. eCommerce 8. Work-from-home/ZOOM towns 9. Office Market 10.Interest Rates Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 2 1. Federal Funding/Debt Overall, 11 Trillion authorized for addressing COVID19 issues 2.3 Trillion 5.0 Trillion disbursed 2.3 Trillion US Debt – 27 Trillion US Budget Deficit 2020 – 3 Trillion (at least) US Unfunded Liabilities – 154.8 Trillion Source: https://www.covidmoneytracker.org/ US Debt to GDP 56.10% in 2000 – 137.7% today Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 3 )9(A,-<$B,&5# >/!?@A,*=#<!B#1&*+&!%+<!>+#@A,*=@#+(!C%(#!(D1*0ED!/#A(#@F#1!4G4G (((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((I0,,!?@A,*=@#+( A,-<$B&;(-&'G$5G(;'$--&;(/'$,(3HM9L(R><<>$5(>5(a.5=.'B(#$(.( 75&,-<$B,&5#('.#&(b=,-&;(/'$,(C9H_(#$(3E9L_9((( <$S($/(3CC9E9(J(<$GG($/(4795(,><<>$5(b$%G9((( +#(6.G("$,&(%."O(;$S5(#$(69H;(.G($/(8&-#&,%&'( .59H!,><<>$5(6.V&(?$5&(%."O(#$(S$'O9((..98!,><<>$5($=#($/(S$'O9( 8$='"&U(6##-GU@@#'.;>5?&"$5$,>"G9"$,@=5>#&;PG#.#&G@&,-<$B&;P-&'G$5G`(6##-GU@@#'.;>5?&"$5$,>"G9"$,@=5>#&;PG#.#&G@=5&,-<$B,&5#P'.#&(( !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#$%&!'%()*+%,!")(,#!-!/*012#3 !"#$%&'()*+,$'-./)$, 8 3. Loan Forbearance Mortgage Loans in Forbearance • Loans in forbearance haVe declined 16 straight weeks • 3.5 million loans now in forbearance • Additionally, 1.06 million borrowers are past due 30 days Source: https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/september/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-declines-to-701 Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 5 4. Business Closures Source: https://www.yelpeconomicaVerage.com/business-closures-update-sep-2020.html Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 6 4. Business Closures Austin: 1,500 business closures 10% of closures are Restaurants Increased Bankruptcies for 2020 and 2021 Source: https://www.yelpeconomicaVerage.com/business-closures-update-sep-2020.html Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 7 4. Business Closures Store Closures Retail Store Closings so far in 2020 Coresight Research estimates that between 20,000 and 25,000 stores could close in the US in 2020 This dwarfs 2019’s 9,000 store closures https://www.businessinsider.com/25000-us-stores-to-close-in-2020-crippling-malls-2020-6 Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 8 5. Young Adults 26.6 million Young Adults (18 to 29) now living at home. COVID and other pressures haVe pulled 8 million renters/buyers out of the market compared to the historic norm. Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-of-young-adults-in-the-u-s-live-with-their-parents-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-depression/ Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 9 K9(0$5G=,&'(0$5/>;&5"& M*+&0@#1!M*+O)<#+2#!O1*@!4GGG!(*!/#A(#@F#1!4G4G X&"6(F=%%<&(F=G#( 5PGG!(*!.GP4GG. 78(]$V#9( 86=#;$S5( .4P.: MQRSTU.H! X&''$'>G#(J##."O( e=''>".5&( B%+<#@)2! HPG. f.#'>5.( G5P4G4G :PG7 78(]$V#9( 86=#;$S5( +'.d(N.'( .GP.5 78(:>G".<(0<>//(g( 5PG5 2&%#(0&><>5?( .4P.4 D&6,.5(F'$#6&'G( 78(2&%#(0&><>5?(0'>G>G(g( F.5O'=-#"B( 0'&;>#(2$S5?'.;&( HPG: :P.. 8$='"&U(6##-GU@@"$5/&'&5"&P%$.';9$'?@;.#.@"$5G=,&'"$5/>;&5"&9"/,( !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#$%&!'%()*+%,!")(,#!-!/*012#3 !"#$%&'()*+,$'-./)$, .G 7. eCommerce Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 11 8. Work-from-home/ZOOM towns ZOOM TOWNS and Work-from-home lessons 1) Technology works better than expected ZOOM and other Collaboration Tools, High-speed Internet, Webcams & Noise Cancelling Microphones 2) It will make sense for some employees to work from home – estimates are around 1/3 of job descriptions can WFH long term. Others will work from home a % of the time. 3) Some % of employees do not want to work from home (home too small, no office, too many distractions) 4) Increased demand for homes with home offices, acreage and pool in lower cost, but still highly desirable cities/communities – ZOOM Towns (Truckee California) Source: https://www.globest.com/2020/09/22/remote-works-appeal-shows-signs-of-fading/?slreturn=20200828104027 Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 12 9. Post Pandemic Office Market Office Market and Employers VOCON surVeyed 50 companies employing 450,000 from the FIRE sector, technology, legal services, consulting, advertising, architecture, design and engineering. The surVey shows there has been a 40% decrease in productivity since the start of the remote work model during the pandemic and 25% of employees report work-from-home fatigue. “It’s time to return to work. The workplace and our culture is our differentiator and our secret sauce when it comes to delivering our work and securing talent.” Ruth Porat, CFO of Google parent conglomerate Alphabet: “We believe when people are together, that's a critical element for collaboration. It's collaboration within teams and across teams, and it's serendipity. We look forward to having people back in the office." In- person collaboration "within teams and across teams" is key to fostering innovation. Source: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vQkxNNTA5MzQwOTU1Mg== ; https://www.Vocon.com/productivity-drops-as-work-from-home-fatigue-sets-in-surVey-of-employers-finds/ Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 13 10. Interest Rates – Fed Funds Target Rate Fed pledges to keep interest rates near Zero for years September 16, 2020 – CNN Business The Federal ReserVe purchase more assets and lower interest rates for eVen longer than it previously expected. The Federal funds rate remained unchanged at zero to a quarter percentage point, and will stay there until America's labor market has recoVered "consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment" and the inflation rate has risen to 2%, and is on track to exceed that leVel for some time. Given the country is still down 11.5 million jobs since February and the consumer price inflation rate oVer the past 12 months stood at 1.3% last month, this seems like a long way off. A survey of Fed officials showed the group expects rates to remain at or near zero through 2023 Source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/economy/federal-reserVe-september-meeting/index.html Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 14 10. Interest Rates - Mortgage 30 Year Mortgage Rates COVID19 Source: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/# Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 15 Pre-pandemic economy Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 16 Texas Population Growth Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 17 Source: https://goV.texas.gov/uploads/images/business/TXataGlance-08.png Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 18 Austin Population • Austin ranks first among the top 50 largest metros for new residents as a percent of total population. • The top cities people moVed from: • Houston • Dallas • San Antonio • New York • Los Angeles Source: Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 19 Austin Job Market – Pre-Pandemic • Over 7,200 High Tech employers in the Austin metro area. • Jobs in Austin’s tech industries total 161,433, or 15.8% of all jobs, compared to 8.7% nationally. (2018) • High tech jobs are growing at twice the rate of the total oVerall job growth rate in Austin. • STEM occupations account for oVer 11% of all jobs in the Austin MSA in 2019, making Austin the 6th most concentrated in STEM among large U.S. metros. • Austin becomes a true Tech City with Apple, Facebook, Army Futures Command, Google, and Amazon. Now you see Highway 130 potentially becoming a Tech Corridor. • Army Futures Command and other Public/Private Innovation Centers point to Austin becoming the labor force that is most in demand. Source: Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 20 Critical Tech Skills and Innovative Labor Force • Army Futures Command – 30 billion initiative • Austin InnoVation District • Blacklocus/Home Depot InnoVation Center – Part of 11 Billion initiative • Blue Prism Global Tech InnoVation Center • Comcast Austin Tech Center • Condé Nast Digital InnoVation Center • DELL EMC’S HPC InnoVation Lab • GM InnoVation Center 680,000 Square-feet • HEB InnoVation Center - 81,000 Square-feet • Shell InnoVation Center – StudioX – Launched September 2020 • Texas InnoVation Center - UT • Walmart/Microsoft Tech Incubator Source: Lots of googling Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 21 US Real Estate Market Today Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 22 Sales of Previously Owned US Home Sales – August 2020 The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 million units in August is the highest reading since December of 2006 The median existing house price increased to a record $310,600 Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 23 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) September’s index reading is the highest on record Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 24 US New Home Sales Through August 2020 Sales of new single-family homes in the United States jumped 4.8 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,011 thousand in August of 2020. New home sales in the South increased 13.4% 14 year high Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 25 Source: https://showingindex.stats.showingtime.com/docs/lmu/x/UnitedStates?src=page Source: Texas National Title – Austin Market Update 26 US Resale inventory as of September 2020 “Nearly 400,000 fewer homes have been listed compared to last year, leaving a gaping hole in the U.S.
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