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The World Bank Documentof The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY /S 32Z?2- /0 Public Disclosure Authorized Reort No. 8333-IND STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT INDONESIA Public Disclosure Authorized FERTILIZER RESTRUCTURINGPROJECT NOVEMBER26, 1990 Public Disclosure Authorized Industry aid Energy OperationsDivision Country DepartmentV Public Disclosure Authorized Asia Region lfhis domnent has a resrcted disribution and may be used by recipients only in theperfomanoe of their offlial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disdosed whout World Bak aulhoulzioid CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of June 1, 1990) Currency Unit = Indonesian Rupiah (Rp) US$1.00 = Rp 1,830 Rp 1 billioni = US$0.546 iilllion WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 British Thermal Unit (Btu) = 0.252 Kilocalories (Kcal) 1 Metric ton (t) = 1,000 kilograms (kg) 1 Metric ton (t) = 2,209 pounds (lb) 3 1 Cubic meter (m ) = 35.32 Cubic Feet (cuft) 1 Standard Cubic Foot (SCF) of Natural Gas = 1,000 Btu FISCAL YEAR Government of Indonesia - April 1 - March 31 Fertilizer Companies - January 1 - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAF - P.T. ASEAN Aceh Fertilizer APPI - Indonesian Fertilizer Producers' Association AS - Ammonium sulfate ASEAN - Association of South-East Asian Nations BAPPENAS - National Development Planning Board BI - Bank Indonesia BPKP - Financial and Development Supervisory Board BNI - Bank Negara Indonesia 1946 EKUIN - Minister Coordinator for Economics, Financial and Industrial Affairs, and for the Supervision of Development GOI - Government of Indonesia Gresik - P.T. Petrokimia Gresik ICB - International competitive bidding IKPT - P.T. Inti Karya Persada Tehnik Kaltim - P.T. Pupuk Kalimantan Timur KC1 - Muriate of potash, or potash, or potassium chlloride KLH - Ministry of Population and the Environment KONEBA - P.T. Konservasi Energy Abadi Kujang - P.T. Pupuk Kujang Mr4SCFD - Million Standard Cubic Feet per day MMBtu - Million British Thermal Unit MOA - Ministry of Agriculture MOI - Ministry of Industry MOF - Ministry of Finance PERTAMINA - National Oil and Gas Company PFE - Participating fertilizer enterprises PIM - P.T. Pupuk Iskandar Muda PUSRI - P.T. Pupuk Sriwidjaja REPELITA V - Fifth Five-Year Development Plan, 1989/90-1993-94 SBI - Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (BI Domestic Money Market Certificate Rate) SCB - State Commercial Bank SLA - Subsidiary Loan Agreement tpd - Tons per day tpy - Tons per year TSP - Triple superphosphate INDONESIA FERTILIZERRESTRUCTUIRING PROJECT Loan and Proiect Summary Borrower: Republic of Indonesia Beneficiaries: Five State-ownedFertilizer Manufacturing Companies: Gresik, PIM, Kaltim, Kujang and PUSRI. Amountt $221.7 million equivalent Lending Terms: The proposed loan would be made at the Bank's standard variable interest rate for a term of 20 years including5 years of grace. Onlending Terms: The proceeds of the loar would be onlent to the five fertilizercompanies for periods of either 10 or 15 years, includingrespective grace periods of three and five years, at a variable interest rate reflectingthe market rate for domestic term funds. The five fertilizer companieswould also pay commitmentfees equal to those payable by the Governmentto the Bank under the loan. The Governmentwould bear the foreign exchange risk. Project Description: The overall objectivesof the Projectwould be to: (a) assist the Government in implementingan agreed Statementof FertilizerSector Policies; (b) support an industry-wideinvestment program; (c) identify the scope for improvedefficiency in marketing and distribution;and (d) assess the industry'senvironmental impact and standards,and prepare an environmentalmanagement program. The Project'scomponents would be: (a) building a new ammonia/ureafacility at Gresik, with a capacity of 1,350 tons per day (tpd) of ammonia and 1,400 tpd of urea, to provide low-cost ammonia to existing operationsand to supply low-cost urea in East Java, and modernizationof Gresik's existing plants; (b) undertakingoptimization investmentsin four fertilizerplants (LskandarMuda, Kaltim, Kujang, and PUSRI) to realize productivitygains, energy savings, environmentalimprovements and product diversification;and (c) supportingpreparation of a marketing and distributionstudy and of an overall fertilizerindustry assessment of environmentalimpacts, includingidentification of long-termobjectives for environmentalimprovement and an action program to ensure that the industrymeets appropriatestandards. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - il - Benefits: The main project benefits would be an improvementin the industry'sperformance, a reductionof budget subsidies, and minimizationof the adverse environmentalimpact of fertilizerproduction. Risks: The investmentsto be supportedunder the Project do not present significantrisks. The timely availabilityof natural gas to the Gresik ammonia/ureaplant is a potentialrisk. To account for this risk no disbursements would be made for expendituresunder the Gresik RestructuringComponent until a contract,satisfactory to the Bank, for the provisionof the required natural gas to Gresik has been executed onibehalf of Gresik and PERTAMINA. The main sector-widerisks are that domestic ex-factoryprices may not be increased to border prices as anticipatedand that internatiGnalfertilizer prices may not be in line with Bank forecasts. The first risk is niinimizedby the Government'sstated objectivein the Policy Statement to bring ex-factoryprices to their economic levels. The latter risk is acceptable,since the industry has a relativelylow variable cost structureand even at significantlylower prices it would remain financiallyviable. EstimatedCost: Local Foreign Total ----- (US$ million)… Gresik Restructurlng/a 118.5 135.1 253.6 Optimiization 16.3 75.8 92.1 - Studies 0.2 0.7 0.9 N Base Cost (June 1990) 135.0 211.6 346.6 Physical contingencies 0.9 4.2 5.1 Expected price increases 1.2 6.6 7.8 Interest during construction 64.8 - 64.8 Workingcapital 20.0 - 20.0 Total FinancingRequired 221.9 222.4 444.3 /a Includes iheuitifiabletaxes oniservices estimatedat $4.0 million. - iii- Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total ----- (USS million) ----- Enterprises' equity 143.8 0.7 144.5 IBRD / - 221.7 221.7 Medium-term borrowing (BNI) /b 58.1 - 58.1 Slhort-termborrowing (BNI) /b 20.0 - 20.0 Total 221.9 222.4 444.3 /a Includes retroactive financing of up to $22.2 million for eligible expenditures incurred by the fertilizer enterprises after January 15, 1990, to cover advanced procurement of imported equipment and services. /c Bank Negara Indonesia 1946. Estimated Disbursements: Bank FY 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 --------- $ million) ---------------- Annual: 22.2 55.1 65.0 37.0 25.0 13.0 4.4 Cumulative: 22.2 77.3 142.3 179.3 204.3 217.3 221.7 Economic Rate of Return: Gresik anmonia/urea plant: 21 percent. - iv . INDONESIA FERTILIZER RESTRUCTURING PROJECT Table of Contents Page No. I. THE FERTILIZER SECTOR . ....... .. ....... .. 1 A. Structure and Performance ... 1 Structure and Organization . 1 Fertilizer Consumption Trends . 1 Distribution and Marketing . 4 Fertilizer Pricing.. 5 Fertilizer Production . 6 Investment Program . .. 8 B. The Policy Framework.... 9 C. The Sector and the Natural Environment . 10 II. THE BANK'S PAST LENDING, STRATEGY AND RATIONALE FOR INVOL'iEMENTIN THE SECTOR . 12 A. The Bank's Past Lending in the Fertilizer Sector . 12 B. The Bankle Strategy and Rationale for Involvement in theSector . lS III. THE PROJECT . * .. .. 15 A. Objectives and Description . 15 B. The P.T. Petrokimia Gresik Restructuring Component . 15 Gresik's New Ammonia/Urea Plant . 15 Modernization of Gresik's Existing Fertilizer Plants . 16 C. The Optimization Component . 17 D. The Studies Component . 19 E. Project Organization and Implementation . 20 IV. PROJECT COST, FINANCING PLAN AND LOAN FEATURES . 23 A. Project Cost . 23 B. Financing Plan . 26 C. Features of the Loan . .27 Onlending Arrangements . 27 Loan Administration .. 30 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission to Indonesia in March/April 1990. The mission consisted of J. Gamba (AS5IE), H. Murphy (AS5IE) and C. Escudero (LEGAS). D. Brown (ASTIF), K. Constant (ASTIF) and S. Venkataraman (Consultant) also participated in project preparation. - v - V. FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, AND PROJECT RISKS .,. .. ........... 33 A. Financial Analysis . 33 B. Economic Analysis .... .. .... ..... 37 C. Environental Analysis .n.y.i.s.. ... 39 D. Project Risks .... ....... 41 VI. UNDERSTANDINGS AND AGREEMENTS REACHED . TABLES IN THE TEXT 1.1 Indonecia - Historical Growth in Fertilizer Consumpcion 1.2 Indonebia - Projected Fertilizer Consumption . 1.3 Estimated Fertilizer Economic Subsidies . 1.4 Fertilizer Production Capacity and Output in 1989 . .8 2.1 Bank Operations and Evaluation of Project Performance in the Fertilizer Sector ... .13 4.1 Project Cost Summary .... 23 4.2 P.T. Petrokimina Gresik Restructuring Component - Capital Cost Estimate . 24 4.3 Optimization Component - Capital Cost Estimate . 25 4.4 Studies Component - Cost Estimate . 26 4.5 Financing Plan . 27 4.6 Initial Allocation of Loan Proceeds to Participating Fertilizer Enterprises .2.8.. 28 4.7 Procurement Arrangements . 30 4.8 Allocation of Bank Loan ... 32 5.1 Gresik - Historical Financial Data . 33 5.2 Gresik - Projected Financial Data With Project . 35 - 5.3 P.T. Petrokimina Gresik Ammonia/Urea Plant - Summary of Financial Rates of Return ..
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