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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 21St to 30Th November 2020

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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 21St to 30Th November 2020 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 63 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 21st to 30th November 2020 st 21 November 2020 © NOCC November 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°6 3 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecolo gical zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th November 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020. This dekad from 21st to 30th November 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-Easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Yoko, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Ngoro and Bafia in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Belabo, Batouri, Mintom, Lomie, Betare-Oya and Moloundou in the East region; - Ambam in the South region; - Melong, Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Bare-Bakem, Mbanga, Dizangue, Penja, Douala, Mouanko, Yabassi and Loum in the Littoral region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mokolo, Bogo, Waza, Yagoua and Mora in the Far North region; - Tchollire , Lagdo, Guider, Poli, Rey-Bouba and Touboro in the North region; - Ngaoundere, Tignere, Mbe, Mbakaou and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua Boulai in the East region; - Lolodorf in the South region; II.2. For Précipitation This dekad from the 21st to 30th November will be characterized by the migration of the Inter Tropical Front within the southern part of the Centre region. Leaving the Far North, North, Adamawa, Northern parts of the Centre and East Regions under the influence of the Harmattan characterized by dry and dusty winds. However, the western part of the South Region, the southern part of the East Region and the southwestern part of the South west Region will experience excess rainfall due to the influence of their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Hence, during this period we note a high probability of recording rainfall amounts; - of very low volume in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions; - around or below the average rainfall amounts recorded for the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in the Centre, South, East, West, North West, South West and Littoral regions. 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th November 2020 1) For precipitation The dekad from the 21st to 30th November would be characterized by a progressive reduction in rainfall quantities throughout the national territory. During this period we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone A high probability of recording; - very small precipitation quantities recorded in Kousseri, Mora, Maroua, Waza, Bogo, Maga, Mindif, Kaele and Yagoua in the Far North region; - very small precipitation quantities in Rey-Bouba, Lagdo, Pitoa, Garoua, Poli, Tchollire and Touboro in the North region. This dekad from the 21st to 30th November corresponds to the (a) effective start of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (b) (North and Far North regions). b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording very small precipitation quantities in Meiganga, Ngaoundere, Banyo, Tibati, Dir, Bankim, Tignere and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region. This dekad corresponds to the start of the dry season in the Guinea High Savannah zone (Adamawa region). c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Nanga-Eboko, Yaounde, Eseka, Nkoteng, Ngambe Tikar, Minta, Bafia, Monatele, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) Mbalmayo, Obala, Ngoro, Yoko and Deuk in the Centre compared to that recorded during the period November 11-20, 2020 (a) Source: NOCC, November 2020 region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Garoua Boulai, Lomie, Belabo, Messok, Batouri, Abong-Mbang, Betare-Oya, Mindourou and Yokadouma; below the average in Moloundou, Ngoyla and Bertoua, in the East region; - above the averages recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th NB : November 2020 in Campo and Kribi; around the average in Akom II, Ebolowa, Nyabizan, Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima, During this dekad from 21st to 30th November 2020, we expect: Zoetele and Lolodorf in the South region. - the effective start of the dry in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), as well as the Guinea High Savannah d) In the high plateaux zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; zone (Adamawa region); - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th - the gradual end of the rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall November 2020 in Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, Forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), accompanied by a Nkambe, Santa, Nkun, Bamenda, Kumbo and Nwa; around the gradual reduction in precipitation quantities in the next ten days; average in Bali and Fundong in the North West region; - the gradual end of the rainy season in the Monomodal rainfall - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th forest zone (Littoral and South West regions) accompanied by a November 2020 in Tonga, Makam, Dschang, Batie, Bana, gradual reduction of precipitation quantities in the next ten days. Bangangte, Santchou, Bafang, Bamendjou, Foumban, Bazou, Mbouda, Bafoussam and Foumbot in the West region. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; -above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in the locality of Mamfe; way below the average in Kumba and Buea; around the average in Mundemba, Nguti, Eyumojock, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in the localities of Yabassi, Yingui, Njombe, Manjo, Edea, Ngambe, Mbanga, Penja, Melong, Loum, Douala, Pouma, Dibamba, Dibombari, and Dizangue; around the average in Mouanko in the Littoral region. 3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Makam, Magba, Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded for this Mbouda, Dschang, Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Koutaba and Foumban; below dekad for the period from 1979 to 2018, notably: 35.1°C in the Far North the historic average in Bafoussam, Tonga and Bazou in the West region; region; 35.4°C in the North region; 32.93°C in the Adamawa region; 28°C in -above the
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