REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 63

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 21st to 30th November 2020

st 21 November 2020

© NOCC November 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC.

ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction

This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°6 3 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecolo gical zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th November 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020. This dekad from 21st to 30th November 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-Easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions).

II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Yoko, , , , , Monatele, and in the ; - , Belabo, , Mintom, Lomie, Betare-Oya and Moloundou in the ; - Ambam in the South region; - Melong, , , , , Bare-Bakem, Mbanga, Dizangue, , , , and Loum in the Littoral region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mokolo, Bogo, Waza, Yagoua and Mora in the Far North region; - Tchollire , Lagdo, Guider, Poli, Rey-Bouba and Touboro in the North region; - Ngaoundere, Tignere, Mbe, Mbakaou and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua Boulai in the East region; - Lolodorf in the South region;

II.2. For Précipitation This dekad from the 21st to 30th November will be characterized by the migration of the Inter Tropical Front within the southern part of the Centre region. Leaving the Far North, North, Adamawa, Northern parts of the Centre and East Regions under the influence of the Harmattan characterized by dry and dusty winds.

However, the western part of the South Region, the southern part of the East Region and the southwestern part of the South west Region will experience excess rainfall due to the influence of their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean.

Hence, during this period we note a high probability of recording rainfall amounts; - of very low volume in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions; th th - around or below the average rainfall amounts recorded for the dekad from 11 to 20 November 2020 in the Centre, South, East, West, North West, South West and Littoral regions.

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III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th November 2020

1) For precipitation

The dekad from the 21st to 30th November would be characterized by a progressive reduction in rainfall quantities throughout the national territory. During this period we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone A high probability of recording; - very small precipitation quantities recorded in Kousseri, Mora, Maroua, Waza, Bogo, Maga, Mindif, Kaele and Yagoua in the Far North region; - very small precipitation quantities in Rey-Bouba, Lagdo, Pitoa, Garoua, Poli, Tchollire and Touboro in the North region. This dekad from the 21st to 30th November corresponds to the (a) effective start of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (b) (North and Far North regions). b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording very small precipitation quantities in Meiganga, Ngaoundere, Banyo, Tibati, Dir, Bankim, Tignere and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region. This dekad corresponds to the start of the dry season in the Guinea High Savannah zone (Adamawa region). c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Nanga-Eboko, Yaounde, Eseka, , Tikar, Minta, Bafia, Monatele, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) Mbalmayo, , Ngoro, Yoko and in the Centre compared to that recorded during the period November 11-20, 2020 (a) Source: NOCC, November 2020 region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Garoua Boulai, Lomie, Belabo, , Batouri, Abong-Mbang, Betare-Oya, and Yokadouma; below the average in Moloundou, Ngoyla and , in the East region; - above the averages recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Campo and Kribi; around the average in NB : Akom II, Ebolowa, Nyabizan, Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima, During this dekad from 21st to 30th November 2020, we expect: Zoetele and Lolodorf in the South region. - the effective start of the dry in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), as well as the Guinea High Savannah d) In the high plateaux zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; zone (Adamawa region); - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th - the gradual end of the rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall November 2020 in Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, Forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), accompanied by a Nkambe, Santa, Nkun, Bamenda, Kumbo and Nwa; around the gradual reduction in precipitation quantities in the next ten days; average in Bali and Fundong in the North West region; - the gradual end of the rainy season in the Monomodal rainfall - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th forest zone (Littoral and South West regions) accompanied by a November 2020 in Tonga, Makam, Dschang, Batie, Bana, gradual reduction of precipitation quantities in the next ten days. Bangangte, Santchou, Bafang, Bamendjou, Foumban, Bazou, Mbouda, Bafoussam and Foumbot in the West region. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; -above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in the locality of Mamfe; way below the average in Kumba and Buea; around the average in Mundemba, Nguti, Eyumojock, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in the localities of Yabassi, , Njombe, Manjo, Edea, Ngambe, Mbanga, Penja, Melong, Loum, Douala, Pouma, , Dibombari, and Dizangue; around the average in Mouanko in the Littoral region.

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2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Makam, Magba, Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded for this Mbouda, Dschang, Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Koutaba and Foumban; below dekad for the period from 1979 to 2018, notably: 35.1°C in the Far North the historic average in Bafoussam, Tonga and Bazou in the West region; region; 35.4°C in the North region; 32.93°C in the Adamawa region; 28°C in -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tiko and Kumba; around the Centre region; 28.66°C in the South region; 28°C in the region East; the historical average in Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, 27.46°C in the West region; 28°C in the North West region; 28.35°C in the Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Idenau, Fontem, Ekok, Buea and Nguti in the South South West region; and 28.42°C in the Littoral region; the following maximum West region; temperatures are expected for the dekad from November 21 to 30 2020: - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Melong, Nkondjock, - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kaele Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Bare-Bakem, Mbanga, Dizangue, Penja, Douala, Kousseri, Maga, Bogo, Makari, Mindif, Yagoua and Waza; below the Mouanko, Yabassi and Loum; around the average in and Edea in the Littoral region. historical average in Maroua, Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Pitoa, Dembo, Rey Bouba, Touboro and Guider; below the historical average in Poli in the North region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tibati; around the historical average in Banyo and below the historical average in Ngaoundal, Meiganga and Tignere in the Adamawa region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yoko, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Ngoro and Bafia; around the average in Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde and Eseka in the Centre region; (a) (b) - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, Belabo, Batouri, Mintom, Lomie, Betare-Oya and Moloundou; around the historical average in Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang and Mindourou; below the average in Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ambam; around the historical average in Djoum, Nyabizan, Akom II, Lolodorf, Kribi, Sangmelima, Ebolowa and Campo in the South region; - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Wum, Benakuma, Bali, Ndop, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako,Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep, Nwa and Fundong in the North West region.

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, November 2020)

4 Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020, for the dekad from 21st to 30th in Wum, Benakuma, Bali, Kumbo, Munkep, Bamenda, Santa and November 2020, there is a high probability of registering mean maximum Fundong in the North West region; temperatures: th th th th - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11 to 20 November 2020 - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11 to 20 November 2020 in Tonga, Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Magba, Massagam, Foumbot, in, Mokolo, Maroua, Mindif and Bogo; around the average in Kaele, Mora, Bafoussam, Kouoptamo, Batcham, Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Bazou, Maga, Kousseri, Yagoua and Waza, in the Far North region; Makam, Foumban and Mbouda in the West region. - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Garoua, Touboro, Tchollire, Pitoa and Poli; below the average in Dembo in the North region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Banyo, Ngaoundere and Meiganga; below the average at Tignere in the Adamawa region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Ngoyla, Yokadouma, Moloundou, Betare-Oya, Belabo and Batouri; around the average in Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Abong-Mbang, and Bertoua in the East region; th th - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11 to 20 November 2020 (b) in Deuk, Bafia, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Yoko, Monatele, (a) Mbandjock, , Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Eseka, Nkoteng and Obala in the Centre region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Akom II and Ambam; around the average in Djoum, Sangmelima, Kribi, Ebolowa, Zoetele, Lolodorf, Campo and Nyabizan in the South region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Tiko and Kumba; around the average in Mamfe, Eyumojock, Idenau, Buea, Fontem, Muyuka, Nguti and Limbe in the South West region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 in Ngambe, Yingui, Ndom and ; around the average in Mouanko, Douala, Dizangue, Melong, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, Loum, Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) Edea, Pouma, Manjo and Mbanga in the Littoral region; compared to the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020 (a) Source: NOCC, November 2020

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th November 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Yoko, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Ngoro and Bafia in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Bélabo, Batouri, Mintom, Lomié, Betare-Oya and Moloundou in the East region; - Ambam in the South region; - Melong, Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Dizangue, Penja, Douala, Mouanko, Yabassi and Loum in the Littoral region.

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b) For Minimum Temperatures -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ndop, Bali, Santa, Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same Bamenda, Kumbo, Benakuma and Wum in the North West region; period from 1979 to 2018, that is 19°C in the Far North region; 19.4°C in the North -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Limbe, Bamusso, region; 17°C in the Adamawa region; 18.6°C in the Centre region; 20.3°C in the Mundemba, Kumba, Tiko, Mamfe, Nguti, Fontem, Buea, Muyuka and Idenau South region; 19.4°C in the East region. 15.6°C in the West region; 15.2°C in the and Eyumojock in the South West region; North West region; 20.6°C in the South West region and 21°C in the Littoral region. -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dizangue, Manjo For the dekad from 21st to 30th November we expect minimum temperatures: Mbanga, Douala, Mouanko, Edea Yabassi, Penja, Nkongsamba, Melong and

-way below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Waza, Mora, Loum in the Littoral region. Bogo, Makari, Yagoua, Kaikai, Kousseri, Maroua and Mokolo; around the average in Mindif, Maga and Kaele and in the Far North region; -way below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tchollire, Poli, Touboro, Guider, Lagdo and Rey Bouba; above the average in Dembo and Garoua in the North region; -way below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundere, Mbe, Tignère, Meiganga and Mbakaou; around the average in Banyo; above the average Tibati in the Adamawa region; -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafia, Eseka, Obala, in Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Nkoteng, Nanga Eboko, and Yoko; way above the historical average in Monatele in the Centre region; -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua-Boulai; (a) above the historical average in Ngoyla and Mindourou; around the average in (b) Moloundou, Batouri, Abong-Mbang; Belabo, Betare-Oya, Bertoua, Lomie and Yokadouma in the East region; -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Lolodorf; around the historical average in Campo, Kribi, Nyabizan and Ambam; above the historical average in Djoum and Zoetele in the South region; -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing; around the historical average in Foumbot, Magba, Makam, Foumban, Bafang and Bazou; above the historical average in Bagangte, and Tonga in the West region.

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b)

compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period.

Source: NOCC, November 2020

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Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in Wum, recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th November 2020, there is a high Nwa, Bamenda, Ndop, Santa, Fundong and Kumbo; below the average in probability during the dekad from 21st to 20th November of registering Benakuma in the North West region; average minimum temperatures: - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in Tiko, th th Kumba, Buea, Muyuka, Eyumojock, Mamfe, Nguti, Mundemba, Bamusso and - way below the average recorded from the 11 to 20 November 2020 in Yagoua and Waza; around the average at Maroua, Bogo, Mora, Mokolo, Idenau in the South West region.

Kaele, Mindif, Maga and Kousseri in the Far North region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in Dembo and Garoua; around the average at Pitoa and Guider; way below the average in Rey Bouba, Poli, Touboro, Lagdo and Tchollire in the North region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in, Ngaoundere; below the average in Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - below the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng and Eseka; around the average in Yaounde, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Obala and Mbalmayo and in the Centre region; (a) (b) - below the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in; around the average in Abong-Mbang, Lomie, Yokadouma, Belabo, Bertoua, Mindourou and Batouri; around the average in Betare Oya, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai and Moloundou in the East region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in Djoum, Akom II, Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, Campo, Kribi, Zoetele and Ambam; below the average in Ebolowa in the South region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in Bangangte, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Dschang, Bazou, Magba, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Foumban, Makam and Foumbot in the West region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th November 2020 in Douala, Mouanko, Nkongsamba, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Penja, Melong, Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperature forecasts for the dekad from 21st to Manjo and Yabassi in the Littoral region; 30th November 2020 (b) Compared to temperature figures registered for the dekad th th from 11 to 20 November 2020 (a) Source : NOCC, November 2020

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th November 2020, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

- Mokolo, Mora, Bogo, Waza and Yagoua in the Far North region; - Tchollire, Poli, Rey-Bouba and Touboro in the North region; - Ngaoundere, Tignere, Banyo and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region;

- Benakuma, Bamenda, Santa, Bali and Ndop in the North West region.

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IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors a) In the agricultural sector: c) For the urban planning sector:

A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of registering cases of destruction and degradation of edifices  degradation of stocks or reserves of agricultural products, due to humidity and engineering structures, due to heat and the presence of dust particles in the and/or heavy rainfall, in the South-West, Littoral, South and the southern part of air in most localities in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; the Centre and East regions;

b) In the health sector: d) In the water and energy sector: A risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording cases of reduction in water levels in dams and - an increase in cases of other water-borne diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, water catchment sites as a result of a reduction of rains accompanied an dysentery, etc.), following the poor quality of potable water, in the five agro- accentuation of evapotranspiration; ecological zones and particularly in precarious areas and large agglomerations;

 an increase in cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), due to an increase in cold nights and the presence of dust e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: particles in the air in most localities in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; - A high risk of recording cases of migration of certain wildlife species in the • a proliferation of malaria-carrying mosquitoes due to stagnant water in the Parks, in search of water resources, in the Far North and North regions Southern part of the country, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; - A risk of recording morning fog in the five Agro-Ecological zones resulting  a proliferation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, in cases of road accidents. rheumatism, hypertension, systemic disorders in children, women in menopause, people suffering from diabetes, in most localities of the country during this period due to heat.

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th th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 11 to 20 November 2020

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Far Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre Regions North Adamawa East North Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 24 24,4 19,9 20,1 20.1 23,3 17,9 17,4 22 22,3

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 78 80 75 79 78 77 81 79 79 78 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 36,88 35,8 32 28 28 28 25,68 26,76 27,25 26,2 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 77 81 79 78 80 78 80 75 79 78 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction ; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector . continue the harvesting of crops according to the agricultural calendar proposed by NOCC.

b) In the health sector, continue to . raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); . avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; . dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; . encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; . strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

For more information contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected], [email protected] ou [email protected] 12