Statistical Inference for Propagation Processes on Complex Networks
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Rankings Province of Heidekreis, Landkreis
9/29/2021 Maps, analysis and statistics about the resident population Demographic balance, population and familiy trends, age classes and average age, civil status and foreigners Skip Navigation Links GERMANIA / Niedersachsen / Province of Heidekreis, Landkreis Powered by Page 1 L'azienda Contatti Login Urbistat on Linkedin Adminstat logo DEMOGRAPHY ECONOMY RANKINGS SEARCH GERMANIA Municipalities Ahlden (Aller) Stroll up beside >> Frankenfeld Bad Fallingbostel Gilten Bispingen Grethem Böhme Hademstorf Bomlitz Häuslingen Buchholz (Aller) Hodenhagen Eickeloh Lindwedel Essel Munster Neuenkirchen, Lüneburger Heide Osterheide, gem.fr. Bezirk Rethem (Aller) Schneverdingen Schwarmstedt Soltau Walsrode Wietzendorf Powered by Page 2 L'azienda Contatti Login Urbistat on Linkedin Provinces Adminstat logo DEMOGRAPHY ECONOMY RANKINGS SEARCH GERMANIA Powered by Page 3 AMMERLAND, HAMELN- L'azienda Contatti Login Urbistat on Linkedin LANDKREIS PYRMONT, Adminstat logo LANDKREISDEMOGRAPHY ECONOMY RANKINGS SEARCH AURICH, GERMANIA LANDKREIS HARBURG, LANDKREIS BRAUNSCHWEIG, KREISFREIE HEIDEKREIS, STADT LANDKREIS CELLE, HELMSTEDT, LANDKREIS LANDKREIS CLOPPENBURG, HILDESHEIM, LANDKREIS LANDKREIS CUXHAVEN, HOLZMINDEN, LANDKREIS LANDKREIS DELMENHORST, LEER, KREISFREIE LANDKREIS STADT LÜCHOW- DIEPHOLZ, DANNENBERG, LANDKREIS LANDKREIS EMDEN, LÜNEBURG, KREISFREIE LANDKREIS STADT NIENBURG EMSLAND, (WESER), LANDKREIS LANDKREIS FRIESLAND, NORTHEIM, LANDKREIS LANDKREIS GIFHORN, OLDENBURG LANDKREIS (OLDENBURG), GOSLAR, KREISFREIE LANDKREIS STADT GÖTTINGEN, OLDENBURG, -
A Tear in the Iron Curtain: the Impact of Western Television on Consumption Behavior
A Tear in the Iron Curtain: The Impact of Western Television on Consumption Behavior Leonardo Bursztyn and Davide Cantoni∗ August 2014 Abstract This paper examines the impact of exposure to foreign media on the economic behavior of agents in a totalitarian regime. We study private consumption choices focusing on former East Germany, where differential access to Western television was determined by geographic features. Using data collected after the transition to a market economy, we find no evidence of a significant impact of previous exposure to Western television on aggregate consumption lev- els. However, exposure to Western broadcasts affects the composition of consumption, biasing choices in favor of categories of goods with high intensity of pre-reunification advertisement. The effects vanish by 1998. Keywords: Consumption, Media, Television, Advertising, East Germany, Communism JEL Classification: D12, E21, Z10 ∗Bursztyn: UCLA Anderson School of Management. Email: [email protected]. Cantoni: University of Mu- nich, CEPR, and CESifo. Email: [email protected]. Previous drafts of this paper have been circulated under the title “Clueless? The Impact of Television on Consumption Behavior.” We are grateful to Philippe Aghion, Alberto Alesina, Stefano DellaVigna, Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln,¨ Matthew Gentzkow, Larry Katz, David Laibson, Yona Rubinstein, Andrei Shleifer, Nico Voigtlander,¨ Romain Wacziarg, and Noam Yuchtman for helpful comments, as well as seminar audiences at the EEA Annual Meeting, the NBER summer institute, and at Harvard, Heidelberg, HU Berlin, Linz, LSE, UCLA, U Penn, and UPF. We thank Tobias Hauck and Maximilian W. Muller¨ for excellent research assistance; Hans-R. Gunther¨ for letting us access the archives of the IM Leipzig; Jeff Blossom for sharing his GIS expertise with us; and Patrick Rothe for professional support with the German income and expenditure survey data. -
Some Simple Rules for Estimating Reproduction Numbers in the Presence of Reservoir Exposure Or Imported Cases
Some simple rules for estimating reproduction numbers in the presence of reservoir exposure or imported cases Angus McLure1*, Kathryn Glass1 1 Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, 62 Mills Rd, Acton, 0200, ACT, Australia * Corresponding author: [email protected] 1 Abstract The basic reproduction number () is a threshold parameter for disease extinction or survival in isolated populations. However no human population is fully isolated from other human or animal populations. We use compartmental models to derive simple rules for the basic reproduction number for populations with local person‐to‐person transmission and exposure from some other source: either a reservoir exposure or imported cases. We introduce the idea of a reservoir‐driven or importation‐driven disease: diseases that would become extinct in the population of interest without reservoir exposure or imported cases (since 1, but nevertheless may be sufficiently transmissible that many or most infections are acquired from humans in that population. We show that in the simplest case, 1 if and only if the proportion of infections acquired from the external source exceeds the disease prevalence and explore how population heterogeneity and the interactions of multiple strains affect this rule. We apply these rules in two cases studies of Clostridium difficile infection and colonisation: C. difficile in the hospital setting accounting for imported cases, and C. difficile in the general human population accounting for exposure to animal reservoirs. We demonstrate that even the hospital‐adapted, highly‐transmissible NAP1/RT027 strain of C. difficile had a reproduction number <1 in a landmark study of hospitalised patients and therefore was sustained by colonised and infected admissions to the study hospital. -
A History of German-Scandinavian Relations
A History of German – Scandinavian Relations A History of German-Scandinavian Relations By Raimund Wolfert A History of German – Scandinavian Relations Raimund Wolfert 2 A History of German – Scandinavian Relations Table of contents 1. The Rise and Fall of the Hanseatic League.............................................................5 2. The Thirty Years’ War............................................................................................11 3. Prussia en route to becoming a Great Power........................................................15 4. After the Napoleonic Wars.....................................................................................18 5. The German Empire..............................................................................................23 6. The Interwar Period...............................................................................................29 7. The Aftermath of War............................................................................................33 First version 12/2006 2 A History of German – Scandinavian Relations This essay contemplates the history of German-Scandinavian relations from the Hanseatic period through to the present day, focussing upon the Berlin- Brandenburg region and the northeastern part of Germany that lies to the south of the Baltic Sea. A geographic area whose topography has been shaped by the great Scandinavian glacier of the Vistula ice age from 20000 BC to 13 000 BC will thus be reflected upon. According to the linguistic usage of the term -
769531709.Pdf
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Piaszeck, Simon; Wenzel, Lars; Wolf, André Working Paper Regional diversity in the costs of electricity outages: Results for German counties HWWI Research Paper, No. 142 Provided in Cooperation with: Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) Suggested Citation: Piaszeck, Simon; Wenzel, Lars; Wolf, André (2013) : Regional diversity in the costs of electricity outages: Results for German counties, HWWI Research Paper, No. 142, Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI), Hamburg This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/83646 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Regional Diversity in the Costs of Electricity Outages: Results for German Counties Simon Piaszeck, Lars Wenzel, André Wolf HWWI Research Paper 142 Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) | 2013 ISSN 1861-504X Lars Wenzel Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) Heimhuder Str. -
Landkreis Soltau-Fallingbostel
Schulleitungen des Heidekreises tagen zum Thema „Schule 2030 - ein gemeinsamer Blick in die Zukunft“ Am 3. und 4. März 2020 kamen zum achten Mal rund 80 Schulleiterinnen und Schul- leiter der Bildungslandschaft Heidekreis sowie Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter des Landkreises und der niedersächsischen Landesschulbehörde zur alljährlichen Schulleiterklausurtagung in Walsrode zusammen. In diesem Jahr fand die Veranstaltung unter dem Motto „Bildung 2030 - Innovative Lernumgebungen und Teamarbeit für eine Schule der Zukunft“ statt. Nach der Begrüßung durch Landrat Manfred Ostermann führte Professor Dr. Olaf- Axel Burow von der Universität Kassel mit einem Impulsvortrag in die Thematik der Klausurtagung ein. Er beleuchtet die Themenbereiche der Digitalisierung, des na- türlichen Lernraums, des Kabinettsystems in Schulen, der vielfältigen Lernumge- bungen, der Wertschätzung im Schulleben und im Unterricht. Zudem ging er ein auf das Netzwerk PERLE in Walsrode, das in diesem Jahr unter den Finalisten des Deutschen Kita-Preises ist. Moderator Stefan Niemann moderierte am ersten Klausur-Abend eine lebhafte Diskussion auf dem roten Sofa, an der Pro- fessor Dr. Olaf-Axel Burow, Dietmar Krause von der Oberschule Lernhaus im Cam- pus in Osterholz und Frank Wagner von der Gebrüder-Grimm-Grundschule aus Hamm und Preisträger des Deutschen Schulpreises 2019 teilnahmen. Was also macht Bildung im Jahr 2030 aus? Professor Dr. Olaf-Axel Burow nannte eindeutig das Fach „Glück“ als unverzichtbar. Dietmar Krause wünschte eine ausgewogene Mischung aus digitalen Lerninhalten und persönlicher Begegnung sowie Beziehung. Unterstützt wurde dieser Wunsch von Frank Wagner, an dessen Schule „Wertschätzung“ in besonderer Weise gelebt wird. Und so waren sich die Diskussionsteilnehmer sicher: Die Erfahrung, scheitern zu dürfen und aus der Situation des Scheiterns zu wachsen, gehört einfach auch dazu. -
Response of the German Government to the Report of the European
CPT/Inf (2003) 21 Response of the German Government to the report of the European Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (CPT) on its visit to Germany from 3 to 15 December 2000 The German Government has requested the publication of the CPT's report on the visit to Germany in December 2000 (see CPT/Inf (2003) 20) and of its response. The response, translated into English by the German authorities, is set out in this document. The Appendices to the response are not reproduced in this document. The German text of the response can be found on the CPT's website (www.cpt.coe.int). Strasbourg, 12 March 2003 Observations by the Federal Government on the recommendations, comments and requests for information of the CPT on the occasion of its visit from 3 to 15 December 2000 (14 June 2002) Introduction The Federal Government herewith submits its observations on the recommendations, comments and requests for information embodied in the report of the Committee on its visit from 3 to 15 December 2000 (CPT (2001) 5). From 3 to 15 December 2000, a delegation of the European Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (CPT) visited the Federal Republic of Germany. The visit was part of the Committee's programme of periodical visits for the year 2000. It was the third periodical visit by the CPT to Germany and the fourth visit in total. The Federal Republic of Germany would like to express its thanks for the positive cooperation with the CPT, and is glad to take note of the critical recommendations and comments and use them as a guide for improvements. -
The Protestant Ethic and Work: Micro Evidence from Contemporary Germany
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung www.diw.de SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 330 Jörg L. Spenkuch A The Protestant Ethic and Work: Micro Evidence from Contemporary Germany Berlin, November 2010 SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research at DIW Berlin This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio- Economic Panel Study (SOEP) or using SOEP data as part of an internationally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP is a truly multidisciplinary household panel study covering a wide range of social and behavioral sciences: economics, sociology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrics and applied statistics, educational science, political science, public health, behavioral genetics, demography, geography, and sport science. The decision to publish a submission in SOEPpapers is made by a board of editors chosen by the DIW Berlin to represent the wide range of disciplines covered by SOEP. There is no external referee process and papers are either accepted or rejected without revision. Papers appear in this series as works in progress and may also appear elsewhere. They often represent preliminary studies and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be requested from the author directly. Any opinions expressed in this series are those of the author(s) and not those of DIW Berlin. Research disseminated by DIW Berlin may include views on public policy issues, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The SOEPpapers are available at http://www.diw.de/soeppapers Editors: Georg Meran (Dean DIW Graduate Center) Gert G. -
Seventy-Five Years of Estimating the Force of Infection from Current Status
Epidemiol. Infect. (2010), 138, 802–812. f Cambridge University Press 2009 doi:10.1017/S0950268809990781 Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data N. HENS 1,2*, M. AERTS 1,C.FAES1,Z.SHKEDY1, O. LEJEUNE2, P. VAN DAMME2 AND P. BEUTELS2 1 Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium 2 Centre for Health Economics Research & Modelling Infectious Diseases; Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium (Accepted 18 August 2009; first published online 21 September 2009) SUMMARY The force of infection, describing the rate at which a susceptible person acquires an infection, is a key parameter in models estimating the infectious disease burden, and the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of infectious disease prevention. Since Muench formulated the first catalytic model to estimate the force of infection from current status data in 1934, exactly 75 years ago, several authors addressed the estimation of this parameter by more advanced statistical methods, while applying these to seroprevalence and reported incidence/case notification data. In this paper we present an historical overview, discussing the relevance of Muench’s work, and we explain the wide array of newer methods with illustrations on pre-vaccination serological survey data of two airborne infections: rubella and parvovirus B19. We also provide guidance on deciding which method(s) to apply to estimate the -
Multiscale Mobility Networks and the Spatial Spreading of Infectious Diseases
Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases Duygu Balcana,b, Vittoria Colizzac, Bruno Gonc¸alvesa,b, Hao Hud, Jose´ J. Ramascob, and Alessandro Vespignania,b,c,1 aCenter for Complex Networks and Systems Research, School of Informatics and Computing, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47408; bPervasive Technology Institute, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47404; cComputational Epidemiology Laboratory, Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, 10133 Torino, Italy; and dDepartment of Physics, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47406 Edited by H. Eugene Stanley, Boston University, Boston, MA, and approved October 13, 2009 (received for review June 19, 2009) Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational two questions stand out: (i) Is there a most relevant mobility scale modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial in the definition of the global epidemic pattern? and (ii) At which challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited level of resolution of the epidemic behavior does a given mobility availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short- scale become relevant, and to what extent? scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the To begin addressing these questions, we use high-resolution spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility worldwide population data that allow for the definition of sub- data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model populations according to a Voronoi decomposition of the world able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 surface centered on the locations of International Air Transport kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation Association (IATA)-indexed airports (www.iata.org). -
Understanding the Spreading Power of All Nodes in a Network: a Continuous-Time Perspective
i i “Lawyer-mainmanus” — 2014/6/12 — 9:39 — page 1 — #1 i i Understanding the spreading power of all nodes in a network: a continuous-time perspective Glenn Lawyer ∗ ∗Max Planck Institute for Informatics, Saarbr¨ucken, Germany Submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Centrality measures such as the degree, k-shell, or eigenvalue central- epidemic. When this ratio exceeds this critical range, the dy- ity can identify a network’s most influential nodes, but are rarely use- namics approach the SI system as a limiting case. fully accurate in quantifying the spreading power of the vast majority Several approaches to quantifying the spreading power of of nodes which are not highly influential. The spreading power of all all nodes have recently been proposed, including the accessibil- network nodes is better explained by considering, from a continuous- ity [16, 17], the dynamic influence [11], and the impact [7] (See time epidemiological perspective, the distribution of the force of in- fection each node generates. The resulting metric, the Expected supplementary Note S1). These extend earlier approaches to Force (ExF), accurately quantifies node spreading power under all measuring centrality by explicitly incorporating spreading dy- primary epidemiological models across a wide range of archetypi- namics, and have been shown to be both distinct from previous cal human contact networks. When node power is low, influence is centrality measures and more highly correlated with epidemic a function of neighbor degree. As power increases, a node’s own outcomes [7, 11, 18]. Yet they retain the common foundation degree becomes more important. -
Epidemic Response to Physical Distancing Policies and Their Impact on the Outbreak Risk
Epidemic response to physical distancing policies and their impact on the outbreak risk Fabio Vanni∗†‡ David Lambert§ ‡ Luigi Palatella¶ Abstract We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in response to the coronavirus disease (CoViD-19) pandemic, countries have introduced various levels of ’lockdown’ to reduce the number of new infections. Specifically we use a collisional approach to an infection-age struc- tured model described by a renewal equation for the time homogeneous evolution of epidemics. As a result, we show how various contributions of the lockdown policies, namely physical prox- imity and human mobility, reduce the impact of SARS-CoV-2 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We check our theoretical framework using real-world data on physical distanc- ing with two different data repositories, obtaining consistent results. Finally, we propose an equation for the effective reproduction number which takes into account types of interac- tions among people, which may help policy makers to improve remote-working organizational structure. Keywords: Renewal equation, Epidemic Risk, Lockdown, Social Distancing, Mobility, Smart Work. arXiv:2007.14620v2 [physics.soc-ph] 31 Jul 2020 1 Introduction As the coronavirus disease (CoViD-19) epidemic worsens, understanding the effectiveness of public messaging and large-scale physical distancing interventions is critical in order to manage the acute ∗Sciences Po, OFCE , France †Institute of Economics, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy ‡Department of Physics, University of North Texas, USA §Department of Mathematics, University of North Texas, USA ¶Liceo Scientifico Statale “C.