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Explaining the Recent Homicide Spikes in U.S. Cities: the 'Minneapolis Effect' and the Decline in Proactive Policing

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Explaining the Recent Homicide Spikes in U.S. Cities: the 'Minneapolis Effect' and the Decline in Proactive Policing SJ Quinney College of Law, University of Utah Utah Law Digital Commons Utah Law Faculty Scholarship Utah Law Scholarship 9-2020 Explaining the Recent Homicide Spikes in U.S. Cities: The 'Minneapolis Effect' and the Decline in Proactive Policing Paul Cassell Follow this and additional works at: https://dc.law.utah.edu/scholarship Part of the Criminal Law Commons, and the Criminal Procedure Commons S.J. QUINNEY COLLEGE OF LAW LEGAL STUDIES RESEARCH PAPER SERIES Explaining the Recent Homicide Spikes in U.S. Cities: The “Minneapolis Effect” and the Decline in Proactive Policing Paul G. Cassell Ronald N. Boyce Presidential Professor of Criminal Law and University Distinguished Professor of Law Forthcoming in The Federal Sentencing Reporter (2020) Research Paper No. 377 S.J. Quinney College of Law University of Utah Salt Lake City, UT 84112 [email protected] Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3690473 Explaining the Recent Homicide Spikes in U.S. Cities: The “Minneapolis Effect” and the Decline in Proactive Policing By Paul G. Cassell ABSTRACT Recently major cities across the country have suffered dramatic spikes in homicides. These spikes are remarkably large, suddenly appearing, and widespread. At this rate, 2020 will easily be the deadliest year in America for gun-related homicides since at least 1999, while most other major crime categories are trending stable or slightly downward. This article attempts to explain why so many cities have seen extraordinary increases in murder during the summer of 2020. A close analysis of the emerging crime patterns suggests that American cities may be witnessing significant declines in some forms of policing, which in turn is producing the homicide spikes. Crime rates are increasing only for a few specific categories—namely homicides and shootings. These crime categories are particularly responsive to reductions in proactive policing. The data also pinpoint the timing of the spikes to late May 2020, which corresponds with the death of George Floyd while in police custody in Minneapolis and subsequent anti-police protests—protests that likely led to declines in law enforcement. The thesis of this article is that the recent spikes in homicides have been caused by a “Minneapolis Effect,” similar to the earlier “Ferguson Effect.” Specifically, law enforcement agencies have been forced to divert resources from normal policing to patrolling demonstrations. And even as the anti-police protests have abated, police officers have scaled back on proactive or officer-initiated law enforcement, such as street stops and other forms of policing designed to prevent firearms crimes. If this thesis is correct, it is reasonable to estimate that, as a result of de-policing during June and July 2020, approximately 710 additional victims were murdered and more than 2,800 victims were shot. Of course, this estimate relies on various assumptions, and further research on the issues surrounding the homicide spikes should be an urgent priority. If this article’s thesis about a Minneapolis Effect is correct, an important implication is that policymakers in major cities should proceed cautiously before taking step to “defund” the police in ways that might reduce proactive policing that is important in preventing gun violence. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3690473 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 II. Recent Homicide Spikes in U.S. Cities ..................................................................................................................... 2 III. The Homicide Spikes Compared to Trends in Other Crime Categories .................................................................. 5 IV. The Timing of the Homicide Spikes ........................................................................................................................ 5 A. The Timing of the George Floyd Protests ............................................................................................................. 5 B. The Timing of the Minneapolis Homicide Spike .................................................................................................. 6 C. The Timing of the Chicago Homicide Spike ....................................................................................................... 10 D. The Timing of the Philadelphia Homicide Spike ................................................................................................ 12 E. The Timing of the Milwaukee Homicide Spike .................................................................................................. 14 F. The Timing of the New York City Homicide Spike ............................................................................................. 15 G. Rural Areas ......................................................................................................................................................... 17 V. Explanations for the Homicide Spikes: Possibilities Other than Policing ............................................................... 18 A. Homicides During the George Floyd Protests .................................................................................................... 18 B. Seasonal Impacts ................................................................................................................................................. 19 C. The COVID-19 Pandemic ................................................................................................................................... 19 D. Increase in Firearms Purchases ........................................................................................................................... 22 E. Rising Unemployment......................................................................................................................................... 24 VI. Law Enforcement Related Explanations for the Homicide Spikes ........................................................................ 26 A. De-Policing and De-Legitimizing of Police as Possible Explanations ............................................................... 26 B. De-Policing in Specific Cities ............................................................................................................................. 29 1. Minneapolis ..................................................................................................................................................... 29 2. Chicago ............................................................................................................................................................ 35 3. Philadelphia ..................................................................................................................................................... 40 4. Milwaukee ....................................................................................................................................................... 42 5. New York City ................................................................................................................................................. 43 6. Other Cities ...................................................................................................................................................... 50 VII. Delegitimization and Public Opinion Data .......................................................................................................... 51 VIII. De-Policing in 2020 and Parallels from the 2014-16 Homicide Spikes .............................................................. 53 IX. The “Big Picture” Probability of a Minneapolis Effect ......................................................................................... 56 X. A Tentative Estimate of the Size, Distribution, and Duration of the Minneapolis Effect ........................................ 60 XI. Cautions About the Minneapolis Effect ................................................................................................................. 63 XII. Policy Implication ................................................................................................................................................ 64 XIII. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................................... 66 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3690473 Explaining the Recent Homicide Spikes in U.S. Cities: The “Minneapolis Effect” and the Decline in Proactive Policing By Paul G. Cassell* I. Introduction Major cities across the country have recently suffered dramatic increases in homicides. The increases are remarkable, suddenly-appearing, and widespread in cities across the country—although often concentrated in disadvantaged neighborhoods. For example, in mid-August, USA Today reported that major U.S. cities had been plagued by a “horrifying increase in gun violence” this year, with shootings skyrocketing in certain neighborhoods in cities from Philadelphia, New York, and Milwaukee to Los Angeles and Denver.1 At least 11,047 people have died in gun violence so far in 2020, compared to 15,208 in all of 2019. At this rate, 2020 will easily be the deadliest year for gun-related homicides since at least 1999, all the while other major crimes are trending stable or slightly downward.
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