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Central Pattana (CPN TB) Buy (Maintained) Thailand Company Update 26 January 2021 Consumer Cyclical | Leisure & Entertainment Central Pattana (CPN TB) Buy (Maintained) Expansions On Track; Maintain BUY Target Price (Return): THB66.00 (24.5%) Price: THB53.00 Market Cap: USD7,904m Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 699m/23.1m • BUY, as we roll over to FY21F’s THB66.00 TP from THB58.00, 25% Analyst upside, 1-2% yields. We like this stock, expecting solid 18-28% core profit growth in 2021-2022. The ongoing launch of new mall, residential, and Vatcharut Vacharawongsith mixed-use projects may strengthen the long-term outlook. Planned asset +66 2088 9736 sales and improving post-pandemic operations may be upcoming catalysts. [email protected] • Three out of Central Pattana’s 35 retail malls had 80% closures of leasable areas: Central Plaza Mahachai, Central Plaza Rayong, and Central i-City (Malaysia) – the rest saw limited temporary tenant closures (20%) and 50-60% drops in traffic. Yet, we are optimistic on the re-opening of certain activities (eg fitness centres, spas, beauty clinics, educational centres, etc) in Bangkok from 22 Jan, which may indicate more relaxing of Share Performance (%) pandemic controls in the near term. Assuming COVID-19’s resurgence here YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m is curbed in March, we expect CPN’s mall operations to recover and see Absolute 11.0 4.4 37.7 8.2 (15.5) less rental rate discounts from the current c.30% by 2Q21. Relative 7.4 3.4 14.0 (3.8) (11.2) • Mall investments to go on. CPN plans to open 14 retail malls with a total 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 33.25 – 63.00 capex of THB70bn over 2021-2025, adding >0.6m sq m NLAs (2020: 1.65m sq m). Two malls will open in Ayutthaya and Sri Racha in 4Q21 with a mall Central Pattana (CPN TB) in Chanthaburi in mid-2022. The Central Park retail project in Bangkok is Price Close set for 2H24. We think there is still room for mall expansions in Bangkok 65 115 and upcountry. We believe CPN will launch 10 malls over 2021-2025, based 60 110 on its opening of two new malls pa on average over the past 10 years. 55 105 • Upcoming asset spin-offs. CPN Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT TB, 50 100 NR) announced plans last Thursday to invest in more two CPN leasehold 45 95 retail malls with combined NLAs of 30,656sq m – Central Marina Pattaya and Central Plaza Lampang – with the total not exceeding THB5.67bn. We 40 90 think this may act as short-term investment catalysts, given earnings 35 85 upsides from possible one-off extraordinary gains from the asset sales in 30 80 Jul-20 Jul-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Jan-21 1H21. Proceeds should financially support its new retail developments. We Jun-20 Jun-20 Mar-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 May-20 May-20 expect CPN’s net D/E ratio to stay at 0.1-0.2x in 2021-2022. Source: Bloomberg • We revise up 2020F core profit by 8% to reflect the improving operations in 2H20, and trim it 4% and 1% in 2021F-2022F to reflect the impact of COVID-19’s second spread domestically. We assume an average rental rate discount of 15% and 10% for 2021 and 2022. We expect CPN’s 2021- 2022 solid core profit growth at 28% and 18%. Apart from a low earnings base, it will mainly be driven by the opening of new malls, launch of new residential projects (c.10% of total revenue), and CPN’s strength on opex controls, in our view, which can help boost core profit margins by 2ppts pa. • Keep BUY. We roll over the DCF-based TP to FY21F’s THB66.00. Having a long-term position in the stock is still attractive, in our view, with justified 24x FY21F and 19x FY22F P/Es. Earnings may return to pre-pandemic levels next year, in tandem with a recovery in foreign visitor numbers. Key risks: Delays in new project openings, extension of the pandemic, and weaker-than-expected domestic consumption. Forecasts and Valuation Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover (THBm) 33,728 36,719 27,694 35,350 41,790 Recurring net profit (THBm) 10,823 11,621 7,318 10,018 12,587 Recurring net profit growth (%) 9.4 7.4 (37.0) 36.9 25.6 Recurring EPS (THB) 2.41 2.59 1.63 2.23 2.80 DPS (THB) 1.10 0.80 0.65 0.89 1.12 Recurring P/E (x) 21.98 20.47 32.50 23.74 18.90 P/B (x) 3.62 3.30 3.03 2.78 2.52 Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 Return on average equity (%) 17.6 17.0 12.9 12.2 14.0 Net debt to equity (%) 36.8 37.5 35.8 21.6 10.6 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Central Pattana Thailand Company Update 26 January 2021 Consumer Cyclical | Leisure & Entertainment Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary (THB) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Thailand Recurring EPS 2.41 2.59 1.63 2.23 2.80 Consumer Cyclical EPS 2.50 2.62 2.16 2.23 2.80 Central Pattana DPS 1.10 0.80 0.65 0.89 1.12 CPN TB BVPS 14.64 16.07 17.50 19.08 21.00 Buy Return on average equity (%) 17.6 17.0 12.9 12.2 14.0 Return on average assets (%) 7.9 7.1 5.8 6.0 7.2 Valuation basis DCF Valuation metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Recurring P/E (x) 21.98 20.47 32.50 23.74 18.90 Key drivers P/B (x) 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.5 i. The opening of new shopping malls; Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 ii. Renovations at existing projects, which may EV/EBITDA (x) 13.50 11.98 14.79 11.87 9.83 increase NLAs and help improve average rental rates; iii. Improving domestic consumption that boosts Income statement (THBm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F customer traffic and income from revenue- Total turnover 33,728 36,719 27,694 35,350 41,790 sharing contracts. Gross profit 17,266 18,633 12,683 16,632 20,074 EBITDA 19,379 21,906 17,787 21,236 24,650 Key risks Depreciation and amortisation (5,906) (7,117) (7,076) (7,468) (8,149) i. Delays in the opening of new projects; Operating profit 13,474 14,789 10,711 13,768 16,501 ii. Popularity of online trading channels; iii. Uncertainties like natural disasters, riots, and Net interest (426) (811) (1,829) (1,610) (1,226) terrorism. Pre-tax profit 13,440 14,095 11,260 12,158 15,275 Taxation (2,057) (2,286) (1,465) (2,006) (2,520) Company Profile Reported net profit 11,216 11,738 9,696 10,018 12,587 CPN is involved in retail property for rental. Its Recurring net profit 10,823 11,621 7,318 10,018 12,587 properties comprise large shopping complexes, and are branded under Central Plaza, Central Festival, and Cash flow (THBm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F CentralWorld on top of other supportive businesses. Its portfolio mainly consists of shopping centres, offices, Change in working capital (2,229) (257) 7,846 1,072 (552) and hotels. CPN also invests in retail and office property Cash flow from operations (17,534) 20,619 28,931 21,024 24,357 funds, and acts as a property manager for such funds. Capex (15,700) (18,500) (9,950) (12,850) (14,750) Cash flow from investing activities (17,682) (20,194) (10,432) (15,232) (17,643) Dividends paid (6,283) (4,937) (3,590) (2,909) (4,007) Cash flow from financing activities 35,819 (1,393) (14,460) (8,236) (3,703) Cash at beginning of period 2,418 3,021 2,053 6,092 3,647 Net change in cash 603 (968) 4,039 (2,445) 3,011 Ending balance cash 3,021 2,053 6,092 3,647 6,659 Balance sheet (THBm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total cash and equivalents 3,067 3,055 7,139 4,983 8,238 Tangible fixed assets 125,181 127,919 129,757 135,138 141,739 Total investments 11,992 13,924 14,202 14,487 14,776 Total other assets 9,233 11,712 1,942 2,479 2,931 Total assets 161,708 169,933 163,933 168,742 180,161 Short-term debt 10,876 8,739 12,983 6,135 6,150 Total long-term debt 19,522 24,471 25,285 19,150 13,000 Total liabilities 87,532 89,471 77,061 74,761 77,600 Shareholders' equity 65,726 72,128 78,538 85,647 94,227 Minority interests 8,450 8,334 8,334 8,334 8,334 Total equity 74,176 80,462 86,872 93,981 102,560 Total liabilities & equity 161,708 169,933 163,933 168,742 180,161 Key metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Revenue growth (%) 17.2 8.9 (24.6) 27.6 18.2 Recurring net profit growth (%) 9.4 7.4 (37.0) 36.9 25.6 Recurrent EPS growth (%) 9.4 7.4 (37.0) 36.9 25.6 Gross margin (%) 51.2 50.7 45.8 47.0 48.0 Recurring net profit margin (%) 32.1 31.6 26.4 28.3 30.1 Dividend payout ratio (%) 56.0 42.1 37.0 29.0 31.8 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Central Pattana Thailand Company Update 26 January 2021 Consumer Cyclical | Leisure & Entertainment Figure 1: CPN’s DCF valuation THBm 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F EBIT 13,768 16,501 18,371 19,880 21,158 22,390 23,468 24,592 25,778 26,983 EBIT (1-t) 11,496 13,779 15,340 16,600 17,667 18,696 19,596 20,535 21,525 22,531 Depreciation & amortisation 7,468 8,149 8,587 9,150 9,534 9,862 10,183 10,203 10,318 10,348 Net working capital 1,072 (552) 1,403 (2,328) (198) (15) (168) (16) 22 28 Capex (12,850) (14,750) (15,350) (15,950) (10,150) (10,050) (9,050) (9,050) (9,050) (9,050) Net free cash flow to firm 5,042 7,730 7,173 12,127 17,250 18,522 20,897 21,704 22,771 23,801 Terminal value 495,181 PV 4,671 6,633 5,702 8,930 11,767 11,704 12,232 11,769 11,438 241,489 Terminal growth 3.0% WACC 8.0% Total discounted firm value 326,335 Less: Net debt 21,638 Less: Minority interest 8,334 Equity value 296,363 Number of shares (m) 4,488 Equity value per share (THB) 66.00 Source: RHB Figure 2: CPN’s recovered business outlook Source: Company See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Central Pattana Thailand Company Update 26 January 2021 Consumer Cyclical | Leisure & Entertainment Figure 3: Our key assumptions on CPN’s retail malls and the company’s 5-year capex plan Asset portfolio
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