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2005/2006 Strategic Panorama

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2005/2006 Strategic Panorama MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA SPANISH INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO 2005/2006 STRATEGIC PANORAMA August 2006 GENERAL SECRETARIAT Directorate General for OF DEFENCE POLICY Institutional Defence Relations Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies Working Group no. 1/05 2005/2006 STRATEGIC PANORAMA The ideas contained herein are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the IEEE, which has sponsored this publication. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION By José Antonio Balbás Otal Chapter I NEW LANDSCAPES, NEW CHALLENGES: THE CHANGING STRATEGIC HORIZON By Paul Isbell and Rickard Sandell Chapter II THE ARMED FORCES, A SIGNIFICANT ELEMENT OF EXTERNAL STATE ACTION. INTERNATIONAL MISSIONS By Salvador Cuenca Chapter III THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2005: INTERNAL CRISIS, DEFICIENT INTERNATIONAL PROJECTION By José Ignacio Torreblanca Payá and Alicia Sorroza Blanco Chapter IV UNITED STATES By Rafael Calduch Cervera Chapter V MAGHREB By Carlos Fernández-Arias Minuesa Chapter VI THE MIDDLE EAST: TRANSFORMATION AND CONTINUATION IN POWER IN A REGION OF UNREST By Hizam Amirah Fernández and Natalia Sancha ChapterVII IRAQ By José Luis Calvo Albero Chapter VIII LATIN AMERICA By Carlos Malamud - 5 - Chapter IX ASIA By Fernando Delage COMPONENTS OF WORKING GROUP INDEX - 6 - INTRODUCTION - 7 - - 8 - . INTRODUCTION It has fallen to me for the second year running to coordinate this Strategic Panorama which brings together the efforts of analysts from the Real Instituto Elcano and the Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos (Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies) who, with total freedom of criteria, have contributed their knowledge and experience in different areas with the sole aim of providing a deeper analysis of complex international developments throughout 2005. As on previous occasions, and given the physical limitations of the publication, particular emphasis has been given to areas and circumstances that are more directly related to SPAIN, attempting where possible to draw conclusions that will hopefully allow us, in some way, to deal with the challenges of this uncertain and undoubtedly unsettling future we face. I wish to stress that, following the criterion first adopted for the previous edition of the Panorama, we have included a number of chapters that might be described as general. These sections are unfettered by geographical limitations and analyse emerging problems, some of them worrying, that may affect us in some way or another. In this connection mention should be made of Chapter 2, which analyses the role of “The Armed Forces as a significant element of the external state action. International missions”, dealing both with operational aspects of missions of this kind and with the complex legal framework required to underpin them as well as their influence on the organisation of the armed forces and, very specially, the army. Finally, it underlines the importance of our participation in them from the point of view of our foreign policy commitments, both in ad hoc coalitions set up to perform specific operations and in cooperation with the international organisations to which we belong. - 9 - . But perhaps the truly original feature of this year’s Strategic Panorama 2005/2006 is Chapter I, under whose broad title “New landscapes, new challenges: changes in the strategic horizon” Professors Paul Isbell and Rickard Sandell conduct a bold and rigorous study of the new strategic horizon which combines climate change and the resulting increase in the number and seriousness of natural disasters; possible pandemics in which globalisation, migratory movements, demographic growth and speed of communications may act as agents of diffusion that are difficult to stem; and the improper and difficult to control use of cyberspace by terrorist organisations which have substantially changed the ways they act as regards propaganda and dissemination of messages and recruitment and training of new members. The chapter ends with an analysis, worrying at the least, of the world economy, which, despite having enjoyed one of its most flourishing periods in recent years that has cushioned and stabilised the world strategic environment, currently faces a critical situation in which the rise in oil prices stemming mainly from the growing demand of the emerging Asian economies and possible drastic adjustments needed to maintain the deficit/surplus balance of the major powers could radically change the situation and even spark political and military tension in an attempt to ensure raw material supplies. As a result of the foregoing, and by way of conclusions, the authors describe four medium- /long-term scenarios which give one plenty to think about, or at least they did me, and I think they will many of our readers. The titles of the rest of the chapters give a good idea of their content. I just want to stress that they refer to a year that began with an outlook that I would dare describe as optimistic: an encouraging result of the legislative elections in IRAQ; a new focus for Palestinian-Israeli relations following the appointment of the new president of the Palestinian National Authority that would undoubtedly receive the backing of the Madrid quartet; and the adoption of a European Constitution that would supposedly be accepted by practically all the members of the Union and would mark a great step forward politically and away from the criticised “Club for Christian merchants”, as we were pejoratively branded. But reality often surprises the most expert analysts and, following the relative success of the referendum for the ratification of the European Constitution in SPAIN, its failure in FRANCE and - 10 - . the NETHERLANDS converted the Constitution into yet another problem to tackle instead of the solution to all of them. A new whirlwind swept across IRAN in June when the ultraconservative Mahmud Ahmadineyad was elected and the country’s nuclear programme was resumed with all the risks that implies, including that of becoming a “casus belli”. International terrorism, which appeared to have been weakened, showed its worst side on 7 July in LONDON, once again underlining the vulnerability of democratic societies which are calling for a worldwide cooperation effort that has a long way to go to being achieved. And to “facilitate” matters even more, Ariel Sharon, who had just established a new political party (Kadima) as a necessary means of continuing the peace process under way, has a very serious aneurysm that has caused him to disappear, at least from the political scene, and has left leaderless the recently founded party whose future is uncertain, particularly when faced by the fact that the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) achieved an overwhelming victory in the Palestinian legislative elections to which the West has yet to react. And as if these concrete facts, which have notably perturbed our contributors’ studies, were not sufficient grounds for concern, I would like to make the following brief observations, mainly to arouse readers’ interest in the related chapters: - Tendency towards the victory of parties defined loosely as “left-wing”—many tinged with demagogic populism—in the latest elections in Latin America. - Complex problems of Asia, a continent that is shifting from a period of great stability to one of growing tension that will have major global consequences in the long/medium term. - Major difficulties in the reconstruction and stabilisation of AFGHANISTAN and IRAQ, despite the relative success of the elections held in both countries to date. - 11 - . - The European Union’s trouble coming to terms with enlargement to 25 members, which has made 2005 an “annus horribilis” that is going to require us to make a huge collective effort to overcome this crisis. And like last year, I want to end this introduction by recalling that we have endeavoured from the outset to provide an aseptic and realistic but SPANISH view that takes into account our interests and geopolitical circumstances, and this has undoubtedly influenced all the analyses. My thanks to all the contributors for their enthusiastic participation, their flexibility and the genuine spirit of cooperation they showed at all times. I hope that the various chapters will help provide an insight into and a better understanding— for the benefit of everyone—of the problems of this complex and worrying world in which it has fallen to us to live. Admiral José A. Balbás Otal COORDINATOR OF THE WORKING GROUP - 12 - . CHAPTER I NEW LANDSCAPES, NEW CHALLENGES: THE CHANGING STRATEGIC HORIZON - 13 - . NEW LANDSCAPES, NEW CHALLENGES: THE CHANGING STRATEGIC HORIZON PAUL ISBELL AND RICKARD SANDELL INTRODUCTION New landscapes and new challenges are beginning to emerge in the strategic environment. Traditional risks continue to pose relatively familiar political, economic, diplomatic and military challenges—for Europe in general and for Spain in particular—in several parts of the world. However, the past few years have witnessed new phenomena with significant potential to cause problems in the international environment from a strategic point of view. During the 90s, the then new strategic environment was the end of communism. Democratic and economic transition, economic development, the end of poverty and the spread of prosperity and peace were not only hopes but real opportunities provided by the new environment. Over time we have seen how the end of history continues to be an illusion. The so-called “clash of civilisations”, the rise in international terrorism (particularly radical Islamism), the spectre of failed states and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction converged at the beginning of the new century and dominated the strategic outlook of the following years, triggering a spate of terrorist attacks, military intervention in Iraq and, now, the Iranian nuclear crisis. In any event, although the transformation in the strategic environment has been quick to take place, it would appear that the very backdrop against which both the most traditional and the new conflicts used to develop is rebelling, giving rise to another series of challenges to which we have - 14 - .
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