DOCSLIB.ORG

2005/2006 Strategic Panorama

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA SPANISH INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO 2005/2006 STRATEGIC PANORAMA August 2006 GENERAL SECRETARIAT Directorate General for OF DEFENCE POLICY Institutional Defence Relations Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies Working Group no. 1/05 2005/2006 STRATEGIC PANORAMA The ideas contained herein are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the IEEE, which has sponsored this publication. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION By José Antonio Balbás Otal Chapter I NEW LANDSCAPES, NEW CHALLENGES: THE CHANGING STRATEGIC HORIZON By Paul Isbell and Rickard Sandell Chapter II THE ARMED FORCES, A SIGNIFICANT ELEMENT OF EXTERNAL STATE ACTION. INTERNATIONAL MISSIONS By Salvador Cuenca Chapter III THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2005: INTERNAL CRISIS, DEFICIENT INTERNATIONAL PROJECTION By José Ignacio Torreblanca Payá and Alicia Sorroza Blanco Chapter IV UNITED STATES By Rafael Calduch Cervera Chapter V MAGHREB By Carlos Fernández-Arias Minuesa Chapter VI THE MIDDLE EAST: TRANSFORMATION AND CONTINUATION IN POWER IN A REGION OF UNREST By Hizam Amirah Fernández and Natalia Sancha ChapterVII IRAQ By José Luis Calvo Albero Chapter VIII LATIN AMERICA By Carlos Malamud - 5 - Chapter IX ASIA By Fernando Delage COMPONENTS OF WORKING GROUP INDEX - 6 - INTRODUCTION - 7 - - 8 - . INTRODUCTION It has fallen to me for the second year running to coordinate this Strategic Panorama which brings together the efforts of analysts from the Real Instituto Elcano and the Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos (Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies) who, with total freedom of criteria, have contributed their knowledge and experience in different areas with the sole aim of providing a deeper analysis of complex international developments throughout 2005. As on previous occasions, and given the physical limitations of the publication, particular emphasis has been given to areas and circumstances that are more directly related to SPAIN, attempting where possible to draw conclusions that will hopefully allow us, in some way, to deal with the challenges of this uncertain and undoubtedly unsettling future we face. I wish to stress that, following the criterion first adopted for the previous edition of the Panorama, we have included a number of chapters that might be described as general. These sections are unfettered by geographical limitations and analyse emerging problems, some of them worrying, that may affect us in some way or another. In this connection mention should be made of Chapter 2, which analyses the role of “The Armed Forces as a significant element of the external state action. International missions”, dealing both with operational aspects of missions of this kind and with the complex legal framework required to underpin them as well as their influence on the organisation of the armed forces and, very specially, the army. Finally, it underlines the importance of our participation in them from the point of view of our foreign policy commitments, both in ad hoc coalitions set up to perform specific operations and in cooperation with the international organisations to which we belong. - 9 - . But perhaps the truly original feature of this year’s Strategic Panorama 2005/2006 is Chapter I, under whose broad title “New landscapes, new challenges: changes in the strategic horizon” Professors Paul Isbell and Rickard Sandell conduct a bold and rigorous study of the new strategic horizon which combines climate change and the resulting increase in the number and seriousness of natural disasters; possible pandemics in which globalisation, migratory movements, demographic growth and speed of communications may act as agents of diffusion that are difficult to stem; and the improper and difficult to control use of cyberspace by terrorist organisations which have substantially changed the ways they act as regards propaganda and dissemination of messages and recruitment and training of new members. The chapter ends with an analysis, worrying at the least, of the world economy, which, despite having enjoyed one of its most flourishing periods in recent years that has cushioned and stabilised the world strategic environment, currently faces a critical situation in which the rise in oil prices stemming mainly from the growing demand of the emerging Asian economies and possible drastic adjustments needed to maintain the deficit/surplus balance of the major powers could radically change the situation and even spark political and military tension in an attempt to ensure raw material supplies. As a result of the foregoing, and by way of conclusions, the authors describe four medium- /long-term scenarios which give one plenty to think about, or at least they did me, and I think they will many of our readers. The titles of the rest of the chapters give a good idea of their content. I just want to stress that they refer to a year that began with an outlook that I would dare describe as optimistic: an encouraging result of the legislative elections in IRAQ; a new focus for Palestinian-Israeli relations following the appointment of the new president of the Palestinian National Authority that would undoubtedly receive the backing of the Madrid quartet; and the adoption of a European Constitution that would supposedly be accepted by practically all the members of the Union and would mark a great step forward politically and away from the criticised “Club for Christian merchants”, as we were pejoratively branded. But reality often surprises the most expert analysts and, following the relative success of the referendum for the ratification of the European Constitution in SPAIN, its failure in FRANCE and - 10 - . the NETHERLANDS converted the Constitution into yet another problem to tackle instead of the solution to all of them. A new whirlwind swept across IRAN in June when the ultraconservative Mahmud Ahmadineyad was elected and the country’s nuclear programme was resumed with all the risks that implies, including that of becoming a “casus belli”. International terrorism, which appeared to have been weakened, showed its worst side on 7 July in LONDON, once again underlining the vulnerability of democratic societies which are calling for a worldwide cooperation effort that has a long way to go to being achieved. And to “facilitate” matters even more, Ariel Sharon, who had just established a new political party (Kadima) as a necessary means of continuing the peace process under way, has a very serious aneurysm that has caused him to disappear, at least from the political scene, and has left leaderless the recently founded party whose future is uncertain, particularly when faced by the fact that the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) achieved an overwhelming victory in the Palestinian legislative elections to which the West has yet to react. And as if these concrete facts, which have notably perturbed our contributors’ studies, were not sufficient grounds for concern, I would like to make the following brief observations, mainly to arouse readers’ interest in the related chapters: - Tendency towards the victory of parties defined loosely as “left-wing”—many tinged with demagogic populism—in the latest elections in Latin America. - Complex problems of Asia, a continent that is shifting from a period of great stability to one of growing tension that will have major global consequences in the long/medium term. - Major difficulties in the reconstruction and stabilisation of AFGHANISTAN and IRAQ, despite the relative success of the elections held in both countries to date. - 11 - . - The European Union’s trouble coming to terms with enlargement to 25 members, which has made 2005 an “annus horribilis” that is going to require us to make a huge collective effort to overcome this crisis. And like last year, I want to end this introduction by recalling that we have endeavoured from the outset to provide an aseptic and realistic but SPANISH view that takes into account our interests and geopolitical circumstances, and this has undoubtedly influenced all the analyses. My thanks to all the contributors for their enthusiastic participation, their flexibility and the genuine spirit of cooperation they showed at all times. I hope that the various chapters will help provide an insight into and a better understanding— for the benefit of everyone—of the problems of this complex and worrying world in which it has fallen to us to live. Admiral José A. Balbás Otal COORDINATOR OF THE WORKING GROUP - 12 - . CHAPTER I NEW LANDSCAPES, NEW CHALLENGES: THE CHANGING STRATEGIC HORIZON - 13 - . NEW LANDSCAPES, NEW CHALLENGES: THE CHANGING STRATEGIC HORIZON PAUL ISBELL AND RICKARD SANDELL INTRODUCTION New landscapes and new challenges are beginning to emerge in the strategic environment. Traditional risks continue to pose relatively familiar political, economic, diplomatic and military challenges—for Europe in general and for Spain in particular—in several parts of the world. However, the past few years have witnessed new phenomena with significant potential to cause problems in the international environment from a strategic point of view. During the 90s, the then new strategic environment was the end of communism. Democratic and economic transition, economic development, the end of poverty and the spread of prosperity and peace were not only hopes but real opportunities provided by the new environment. Over time we have seen how the end of history continues to be an illusion. The so-called “clash of civilisations”, the rise in international terrorism (particularly radical Islamism), the spectre of failed states and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction converged at the beginning of the new century and dominated the strategic outlook of the following years, triggering a spate of terrorist attacks, military intervention in Iraq and, now, the Iranian nuclear crisis. In any event, although the transformation in the strategic environment has been quick to take place, it would appear that the very backdrop against which both the most traditional and the new conflicts used to develop is rebelling, giving rise to another series of challenges to which we have - 14 - .
Recommended publications
  • Envisioning and Contesting a New Lebanon? Actors, Issues and Dynamics Following the October Protests About International Alert

    Envisioning and Contesting a New Lebanon? Actors, Issues and Dynamics Following the October Protests About International Alert

    Envisioning and contesting a new Lebanon? Actors, issues and dynamics following the October protests About International Alert International Alert works with people directly affected by conflict to build lasting peace. We focus on solving the root causes of conflict, bringing together people from across divides. From the grassroots to policy level, we come together to build everyday peace. Peace is just as much about communities living together, side by side, and resolving their differences without resorting to violence, as it is about people signing a treaty or laying down their arms. That is why we believe that we all have a role to play in building a more peaceful future. www.international-alert.org © International Alert 2020 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without full attribution. Layout: Marc Rechdane Front cover image: © Ali Hamouch Envisioning and contesting a new Lebanon? Actors, issues and dynamics following the October protests Muzna Al-Masri, Zeina Abla and Rana Hassan August 2020 2 | International Alert Envisioning and contesting a new Lebanon? Acknowledgements International Alert would like to thank the research team: Muzna Al-Masri, Zeina Abla and Rana Hassan, as well as Aseel Naamani, Ruth Simpson and Ilina Slavova from International Alert for their review and input. We are also grateful for the continuing support from our key funding partners: the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade; and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency.
  • Europarties and Euroscepticism in the 2014 European Elections

    Europarties and Euroscepticism in the 2014 European Elections

    More Europe Vs. No Europe: Europarties and Euroscepticism in the 2014 European Elections Essays by David J. Bailey, Eleonora Poli, Ania Skrzypek More Europe Vs. No Europe: Europarties and Euroscepticism in the 2014 European Elections Italianieuropei: Hedwig Giusto and Virginia Cavaliere Graphic design: Emanuele Ragnisco, Mekkanografici Associati Page layout: Futura Grafica 70 Srl ISbn 978-88-89988-69-5 © 2014 Foundation for European Progressive Studies and Fondazione Italianieuropei Published with the financial support of the European Parliament CONTENTS 7 Foreword 9 Eurosceptic Vs. Europhile Parties: A Scenario of the next European Parliamentary Elections Eleonora Poli 25 Politicising Europe: Political Leadership and Courage of Europarties? Ania Skrzypek 73 On Political Will in the Era of Austerity David J. Bailey 5 Foreword In 2013 the Foundation for European Progressive Studies, the Fondazione Italianieuropei and the Rome office of the Friedrich- Ebert-Stiftung co-sponsored an international seminar entitled “Democratic Legitimacy and Political Leadership in the Euro- pean Union. Towards the 2014 European Elections”. On that oc- casion the discussion, moving from the impact that the economic and political downturn had on the EU citizens’ disenchantment with politics and democracy, both at the national and European levels, focused on the need to politicise the EU dimension and provide the common institutions with that democratic legitima- tion which they were largely missing. The discussion focused in particular on two factors that, it was argued, could contribute to the achievement of those goals: the direct election of the President of the European Commission, and the enhancement of the Europarties and the creation of a competitive party system.
  • Europe and Social Democracy SOCIAL DEMOCRACY READER 4 SOCIAL DEMOCRACYREADER4 Social Democracy and Europe Etal

    Europe and Social Democracy SOCIAL DEMOCRACY READER 4 SOCIAL DEMOCRACYREADER4 Social Democracy and Europe Etal

    Europe and Social Democracy SOCIAL DEMOCRACY READER 4 SOCIAL DEMOCRACYREADER4 Social Democracy Social Europe and Cäcilie Schildberg etal. ISBN 978-3-86498-844-8 2nd, updated edition, 1st English edition Published by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung German edition: Political Academy, Bonn, February 2014 English edition: Division for International Cooperation, Berlin, May 2014 The fi rst (German) edition was supported fi nancially by the Erich-Brost-Schenkung. »One of the advantages of democracy that no other form of state can substitute is discussion; only that enables the voters to take their bearings. That alone forces them to take a position.« (Erich Brost 1951) Editing: Jochen Dahm, Tobias Gombert, Christian Krell, Cäcilie Schildberg, Martin Timpe, Anne Wagenführ Contact: [email protected] / [email protected] / [email protected] Printing: Mauser + Tröster GbR, Mössingen Layout and typesetting: DIE.PROJEKTOREN, Berlin Title photo: Sven Hopp, fotolia.com The authors of the individual sections of this publication are responsible for the views it contains. The opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in all instances. SOCIAL DEMOCRACY READER 4 Cäcilie Schildberg et al. Europe and Social Democracy CONTENTS Foreword to the First English-language Edition 4 1. Introduction 6 2. Social Democracy – A Compass for Europe 10 2.1. Basic Values 12 2.2. Fundamental Rights 16 2.3. Europe and Social Democracy: Three Connections 20 2.4. Five Principles of Policy on Europe 24 2.5. Social Europe 32 3. Europe Today: How It Came into Being – What It Is 40 3.1. Democracy: Institutional Construction of the EU 48 3.2.
  • Analysis of Platforms in Lebanon's 2018 Parliamentary Election

    Analysis of Platforms in Lebanon's 2018 Parliamentary Election

    ا rلeمtركnزe اCل لبeنsانneي aلbلeدرLا eساThت LCPS for Policy Studies r e p a 9 Analysis of Platforms 1 P 0 2 y a y M in Lebanon's 2018 c i l o Parliamentary Election P Nizar Hassan Founded in 1989, the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies is a Beirut-based independent, non-partisan think tank whose mission is to produce and advocate policies that improve good governance in fields such as oil and gas, economic development, public finance, and decentralization. Copyright© 2019 The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies Designed by Polypod Executed by Dolly Harouny Sadat Tower, Tenth Floor P.O.B 55-215, Leon Street, Ras Beirut, Lebanon T: + 961 1 79 93 01 F: + 961 1 79 93 02 [email protected] www.lcps-lebanon.org Analysis of Platforms in Lebanon's 2018 Parliamentary Election 1 1 Nizar Hassan The author would like to thank Sami Nizar Hassan is a former researcher at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. He Atallah, John McCabe, and Georgia Dagher for their contributions to this paper. holds an M.Sc. in Labour, Social Movements and Development from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. At LCPS, his work focused on Lebanese political parties and movements and their policy platforms. His master’s research examined protest movements in Lebanon and he currently researches political behavior in the districts of Chouf and Aley. Nizar co-hosts ‘The Lebanese Politics Podcast’, and his previous work has included news reporting and non-profit project management. 2 LCPS Policy Paper Introduction Prior to the May 2018 Lebanese Parliamentary Election, a majority of 2 2 political parties and emerging political groups launched electoral Henceforth referred to as 'emerging platforms outlining their political and socioeconomic goals and means groups'.
  • The Valence Side of the EU: Advocating for National Interests in Europe

    The Valence Side of the EU: Advocating for National Interests in Europe

    The Valence Side of the EU: Advocating for National Interests in Europe Luca Carrieri ([email protected]) and Davide Angelucci, ([email protected])1 2 Abstract In the last decades, many challenger parties have tried to mobilize a conflict on European integration, increasing their entrepreneurial efforts on the EU issues. In fact, the permissive consensus on integration policies has progressively vanished, with citizens expressing polarized attitudes towards the EU. As a consequence, the issue competition on European integration has been mainly conceived as a positional struggle, where voter/party preferences are ordered along a Pro-/-Anti-EU general dimension. However, some parties may be prone to deploy a different strategy, mobilizing valence aspects related to the EU. These strategies revolve around party competence in advocating for national interests at the EU level, which has been considered as a generally desired goal of domestic electorates. Relying on their claimed superior competence to defend national interests within the EU, parties adopt a valence frame on the EU to avoid divisions within their electorates. However, it is still unclear how much and whether the voters have electorally responded to EU valence issues. This paper advances the following research questions: Have EU valence issues affected electoral preferences? Have EU valence issues outweighed the EU positional ones in explaining the voting preferences? Which parties have been more likely to benefit from EU valence issues? To answer these questions, we use an innovative dataset, the Issue Competition Comparative Project (2017-2018), including information on voters’ attitudes on a number of issues. Most importantly, the dataset has tapped public opinion attitudes on both EU positional and valence issues in Italy and France.
  • 6 Who Are the Europeans and How Does This Matter for Politics?1

    6 Who Are the Europeans and How Does This Matter for Politics?1

    //FS2/CUP/3-PAGINATION/CKZ/2-PROOFS/3B2/9780521883016C06.3D 132 [132–166] 7.8.2008 7:58AM 6 Who are the Europeans and how does this matter for politics?1 NEIL FLIGSTEIN Introduction The European Union has produced a remarkable set of agreements to guide the political interactions of countries across Europe in the past fifty years. These agreements have produced collective rules governing market transactions of all varieties, created a single currency, estab- lished a rule of law that includes a European court, and promoted increased interactions for people who live within the boundaries of Europe. Moreover, the EU has expanded from six to twenty-seven countries. The endpoint of the EU has been left intentionally vague and can be encapsulated by the ambiguous phrase “toward an ever closer union.” Much of the political criticism of the EU has focussed on the lack of transparency in its procedures and in its accountability to a larger demo- cratic public (Baun 1996; Dinan 2002; McCormick 2002). Many of Europe’s citizens have little knowledge about the workings of the EU (Gabel 1998). This lack of “connectedness” to the EU by ordinary citizens has caused scholars to try to understand why a European identity (equivalent to a “national” identity), a European “civil society,” and a European politics have been so slow to emerge (Laffan et al. 2000). The main focus of these efforts is why, after fifty years of the integration project, there is so little evidence of public attitudes that reflect more feelings of solidarity across Europe. Even among those who work in Brussels, there are mixed feelings about being European (Hooghe 2005; Beyer 2005).
  • The Specter of Sunni Military Mobilization in Lebanon

    The Specter of Sunni Military Mobilization in Lebanon

    The Specter of Sunni Military Mobilization in Lebanon Patricio Asfura-Heim • Chris Steinitz with contributions by Ghassan Schbley Cleared for public release DOP-2013-U-006349-Final November 2013 Strategic Studies is a division of CNA. This directorate conducts analyses of security policy, regional analyses, studies of political-military issues, and strategy and force assessments. CNA Strategic Studies is part of the glob- al community of strategic studies institutes and in fact collaborates with many of them. On the ground experience is a hallmark of our regional work. Our specialists combine in-country experience, language skills, and the use of local primary-source data to produce empirically based work. All of our analysts have advanced degrees, and virtually all have lived and worked abroad. Similarly, our strategists and military/naval operations experts have either active duty experience or have served as field analysts with operating Navy and Marine Corps commands. They are skilled at anticipating the “prob- lem after next” as well as determining measures of effectiveness to assess ongoing initiatives. A particular strength is bringing empirical methods to the evaluation of peace-time engagement and shaping activities. The Strategic Studies Division’s charter is global. In particular, our analysts have proven expertise in the follow- ing areas: The full range of Asian security issues The full range of Middle East related security issues, especially Iran and the Arabian Gulf Maritime strategy Insurgency and stabilization Future national security environment and forces European security issues, especially the Mediterranean littoral West Africa, especially the Gulf of Guinea Latin America The world’s most important navies Deterrence, arms control, missile defense and WMD proliferation The Strategic Studies Division is led by Dr.
  • Guy VERHOFSTADT* “More Europe Is the Solution…”

    Guy VERHOFSTADT* “More Europe Is the Solution…”

    Revista_comunicare_31.qxd 5/26/2014 2:43 PM Page 67 Guy VERHOFSTADT* “More Europe is the solution…” Lectio Prima delivered by Guy Verhofstadt, MEP, Leader of the ALDE Group in the Eu- ropean Parliament, on the occasion of receiving the Doctor Honoris Causa award from the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, Bucharest (Romania). The awarding ceremony took place on November 8, 2013, as part of the „European Citizen- ship Week”. This initiative carried out by the NUPSPA comprised a series of events to mark 20 years from the introduction of the European citizenship through the Treaty of Maastricht. Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the Liberals and Democrats, is one of the most influential voic- es in the European Parliament. He is currently running for President of the European Com- mission in the 2014 European elections. Throughout his political career, Verhofstadt has been a keen promoter of reforms within the EU; he has fought for a faster decision-making process and has supported the active consultation and involvement of European citizens in matters regarding the future of the European Union. In his address to the academic community of the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, Guy Verhofstadt plainly stated that the EU is currently at a cross- roads and that a decision has to be made with regard to its future. The options available de- fine the role that the EU seeks to play in the globalized world: either the EU becomes more integrated and fit to cope with the new rules of the game or it remains an intergovernmental organization that “continues to think within its borders”.
  • Journal of Contemporary European Research Euroscepticism Between

    Journal of Contemporary European Research Euroscepticism Between

    Journal of Contemporary European Research Volume 17, Issue 2 (2021) Research Article Euroscepticism between Populism and Technocracy: The Case of Italian Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle Franco Zappettini and Marzia Maccaferri Citation Zappettini, F. and Maccaferri, M. (2021). ‘Euroscepticism between Populism and Technocracy: The Case of Italian Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle’ in, Journal of Contemporary European Research 17 (2): 239-257. https://doi.org/10.30950/jcer.v17i2.1184 First published at: www.jcer.net Volume 17, Issue 2 (2021) Franco Zappettini and Marzia Maccaferri Abstract This paper analyses the digital communication of Italian parties Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle during their campaigns for the European Parliament elections (January-May 2019). We focus on the Italian case as it is representative of a generalised shift in European public discourse towards an overt delegitimation of the European project and its re-imagination. In the Italian case, Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle, which were in a Government coalition for fourteen months, have been instrumental in Italy’s shift from a strong Europhile country to one of the most Eurosceptic. However, while Lega has definitely aligned itself with a strong right-wing populist agenda, Movimento 5 Stelle has promoted a populist technocratic vision of democracy. Our analysis shows that the articulation of Eurosceptic discourses from both parties by and large reflects the two stances above with Lega’s messages (primarily produced by its leader Matteo Salvini) characterised by a ‘hyperled’ style of communication and stronger nativist elements (for example the appeal to an ethno-centric and ‘sovereign’ idea of Italy) than those of Movimento 5 Stelle, which instead relied on a ‘horizontal’ communicative style.
  • Lebanon: Freedom in the World 2020

    Lebanon: Freedom in the World 2020

    4/8/2020 Lebanon | Freedom House FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2020 Lebanon 44 PARTLY FREE /100 Political Rights 14 /40 Civil Liberties 30 /60 LAST YEAR'S SCORE & STATUS 45 /100 Partly Free Global freedom statuses are calculated on a weighted scale. See the methodology. https://freedomhouse.org/country/lebanon/freedom-world/2020 1/20 4/8/2020 Lebanon | Freedom House Overview Lebanon’s political system ensures representation for its many sectarian communities, but suppresses intracommunity competition and impedes the rise of cross-sectarian or secularist parties. Residents enjoy some civil liberties and media pluralism, but grapple with the government’s inability to address pervasive corruption and inconsistent support for the rule of law. Lebanon has also struggled to support the refugees who make up over a quarter of its population, with refugees from Syria facing especially difficult circumstances as they face unemployment, restrictions on movement, and the risk of refoulement. Key Developments in 2019 Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned at the end of October, in the wake of massive antigovernment protests that erupted earlier that month when the government proposed an increase in the value-added tax (VAT) and implemented a new fee for mobile messaging services. The movement was marked by violent clashes between protesters and security forces resulting in dozens of injuries. The government introduced strict new curfews limiting the movement of Syrian refugees, as well as a stringent permit system restricting their access to employment. In May, authorities deported nearly 3,000 refugees, despite concerns that they could be detained and tortured in Syria. Political Rights A.
  • Elections and Democratic Participation a Thematic Collection of Innovative EU-Funded Research Results

    Elections and Democratic Participation a Thematic Collection of Innovative EU-Funded Research Results

    ISSN 2599-8293 CORDIS Results Pack on elections and democratic participation A thematic collection of innovative EU-funded research results May 2019 Understanding turbulent political times through innovative EU‑funded research Research and Innovation Editorial Understanding turbulent political times through innovative EU-funded research The 2019 European elections will possibly be viewed by future Contents historians as a landmark election for the EU due to the extraordinary political context in which they’re taking place and the challenges to democracy this involves. This is why innovative social sciences research is vital in helping us understand the shifting patterns of democratic participation in the 21st century. As such, this Results 3 Pack features 11 EU-funded projects that have been working to Junk news aggregator aims to restore trust in media help us better understand our complex political world and how and democracy citizens view their continually shifting place within it. 5 2019 is a busy year for democratic elections – in Europe alone, aside from the Bridging the gap between the EU and European youth European Parliament elections, various national elections (local, regional, parlia- mentary or presidential) will be taking place in at least 15 EU Member States. Further afield outside the EU, elections have already taken place or are still 7 scheduled in Argentina, Australia, Canada, India, Indonesia, Israel, South Africa, Civiciti: technology at the service of participative Switzerland and Ukraine to name but a few. The United States will be, by the end of democracy 2019, already gearing itself up for its 2020 showdown election between President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponent.
  • Hawkins 1.4 Charisma Validity 20110512

    Hawkins 1.4 Charisma Validity 20110512

    Validity of the Charisma Measure1 Paper presented at the Workshop on Democratic Accountability Strategies, Duke University, Durham, NC, May 18-19, 2011 Kirk A. Hawkins 782 SWKT Brigham Young University Provo UT 84602 [email protected] Abstract The Survey on Political Accountability includes a single measure of charismatic party linkages, question e1. Here I validate the measure by considering the nature of the survey question (content validity), how well the resulting data agree with scholarly judgment (convergent validity), and whether the data correlate in predictable ways with causally related phenomena (construct validity). I find that the measure is a strong one, especially at the level of country averages. Party-level results show more measurement error, including both nonsystematic and systematic error, which suggests that analyses using the party-level data should try to incorporate as many of the observations as possible. 1 This paper is based on a dataset collected under the auspices of the project “Political Accountability in Democratic Party Competition and Economic Governance,” implemented by a political science research group at Duke University (Principal Investigator: Herbert Kitschelt, Department of Political Science). I gratefully acknowledge funding for the data collection by the World Bank, the Chilean Science Foundation (research grant directed by Juan Pablo Luna and David Altman, Catholic University of Chile), and Duke University, and the support of Brigham Young University in allowing me to participate in this conference. Data analysis and conclusions of this paper are the sole responsibility of the author. Introduction In this paper I examine the validity of the measure of charismatic linkages in the Survey on Political Accountability.