Appendix 24 Urban Population Impact Model
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APPENDIX 24 URBAN POPULATION IMPACT MODEL Suncor Energy Inc. - i - Urban Population Impact Model Voyageur South Project July 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE 1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 1 2 SELECTED OBSERVATIONS.................................................................................... 2 3 URBAN POPULATION IMPACT MODEL ................................................................... 7 3.1 MODEL REVISION..........................................................................................................7 3.2 MODEL PERFORMANCE...............................................................................................9 3.3 SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATIONS..........................................................................................9 4 GLOSSARY .............................................................................................................. 12 5 ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................... 13 6 REFERENCES.......................................................................................................... 14 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Population Growth Rates.........................................................................................3 Table 2 Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo – 9% Growth Scenario.............................11 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Urban Population Growth Rates..............................................................................4 Figure 2 Model Performance................................................................................................10 Suncor Energy Inc. -1 - Urban Population Impact Model Voyageur South Project July 2007 1 INTRODUCTION This appendix addresses: • selected observations regarding population growth in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB); • the Urban Population Impact Model developed by Regional Issues Working Group (RIWG); and • the performance of this model in view of actual population estimates. Definitions Definitions of terms applicable to this appendix are provided below. Wood Buffalo Region means the area within the borders of the RMWB and includes the RMWB and the reserves within its borders. The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo is a municipality in northeastern Alberta. It was created in 1995 by amalgamating the City of Fort McMurray and Improvement District 18. The Urban Service Area of the RMWB is a planning area, roughly coincident with Fort McMurray. Population includes all people in the region, except people on short-term assignments and those living in camps. The urban population of the RMWB is the population of Fort McMurray and the nearby bedroom communities of Saprae Creek and Gregoire Lake Estates. The urban population refers to the permanent population and does not include work camps. The Urban Population Impact Model is a demographic model of Fort McMurray and the nearby bedroom communities of Saprae Creek and Gregoire Lake Estates. It was developed in 1997 by Nichols Applied Management on behalf of the RIWG and the RMWB. Suncor Energy Inc. -2 - Urban Population Impact Model Voyageur South Project July 2007 2 SELECTED OBSERVATIONS Construction and especially operations of oil sands facilities are main drivers of urban population growth in the RMWB. A number of general observations regarding the population growth of the urban population are detailed below. Historical Growth There are many ways to count the population of the Wood Buffalo Region and there are two main sources for population data: • the municipal census conducted by the RMWB; and • the national census conducted by Statistics Canada. The RMWB has conducted municipal census in 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. Statistics Canada conducts its census once every five years, with the last one being in 2006. The two sources have several differences in terms of definition of population and methodology. The main difference is that the Statistics Canada census counts people where they normally reside, while the RMWB municipal census counts them where they are found. In view of the high proportion of people working in the Wood Buffalo Region, but maintaining their primary residence elsewhere, the Statistics Canada estimates have been smaller than the most comparable municipal census. The RMWB census counted 79,800 people in the region for 2006, while the Statistics Canada census places the population at 51,496. The difference lies in the camp populations and people living in hotels. For most purposes, the RMWB census provides a more appropriate picture of the population in the region and Alberta Municipal Affairs uses RMWB census population estimates in its Official Population List. Table 1 presents the RMWB census numbers and indicates the average annual growth rate for the 1999 to 2006. Table 1 indicates the growth rates range from -1.5% for Fort Chipewyan to +34.6% for “other”. Interpreting changes in population data for small communities must be viewed with a degree of uncertainty, because even small enumeration issues can lead to relatively large swings in the count. The population estimates for the larger centres are less susceptible to survey administration-related issues. The information in Table 1 shows that the population of Fort McMurray (excluding people in campgrounds and hotels) grew with an average rate of 7.8%, while the estimate of people in campgrounds and hotels grew by 27.3%. Suncor Energy Inc. -3 - Urban Population Impact Model Voyageur South Project July 2007 Table 1 Population Growth Rates Growth Rate Community 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 [%] Fort McMurray (excluding hotels/campgrounds) 36,452 41,712 46,723 55,121 58,150 61,735 7.8 Saprae Creek 509 659 603 624 754 728 5.2 Gregoire Lake Estates 163 206 184 206 180 285 8.3 Draper 47 60 84 141 148 118 14.1 Anzac 397 446 548 647 685 711 8.7 Conklin 215 219 213 210 242 338 6.7 Janvier 207 185 143 112 141 218 0.7 Fort Chipewyan 1,020 1,036 1,012 1,146 744 915 -1.5 Fort McKay 262 399 186 218 104 536 10.8 Other 7 167 11 n/a n/a 56 34.6 Homeless n/a n/a n/a n/a 232 405 n/a Fort McMurray hotels/campgrounds 424 444 517 990 2,601 2,301 27.3 Work Camps 3,568 5,903 8,063 7,678 9,178 10,442 16.6 Total 43,271 51,436 58,287 67,093 73,159 78,788 8.9 First Nations Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1,018 n/a Total RMWB plus First Nations Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 79,806 n/a Source: RMWB census (RMWB 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006). Notes: The 2006 RMWB census is the first municipal census that presents an estimate for people living on First Nations reserves. People living on reserves live in the Wood Buffalo Region, but not in the RMWB, as reserves are not part of a municipality. Other means living outside established urban and rural communities. n/a: Not available. Variable Growth Rates Most of the people in the region live in the urban areas of Fort McMurray and its nearby bedroom communities of Saprae Creek and Gregoire Lake Estates. Together, these communities (including the people counted in campgrounds and hotels) account for 65,059 or 95% of the estimated 68,346 population in the municipality (excluding people in work camps and living on reserves). Figure 1 shows the annual growth rates of the urban population and indicates that the growth rate is variable from year to year. The estimated growth rate in 2005 is estimated at 5.7% as compared to 8.7% in 2004 and the seven-year average of 6.8%. Declining Growth Rates During Peak Construction Periods The impact of construction periods is reduced as the population grows. The following lists the average annual growth rate of the population of Fort McMurray by period: Suncor Energy Inc. -5 - Urban Population Impact Model Voyageur South Project July 2007 • 38.5% in the period of 1963 to 1968, when the Suncor base plant was built; • 21.4% in the 1978 to 1979 period during the construction of the Syncrude base plant; and • 8.25% in 1999 to 2006 during the construction of the Shell Muskeg River Mine, Suncor Millennium Mine and Syncrude UE1. Declining Number of Workers per Barrel of Synthetic Crude Oil Output Technological advances and economies of scale are changing the productivity of oil sands plants, as expressed as the number of people required to produce a barrel of Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO). One integrated mine and upgrader facility has increased its output per worker from an estimated 19,000 barrels of SCO per worker per year in early stages of operation to a current output of about 30,000 barrels per worker. Another operator building a greenfield integrated mining/upgrader facility plans on a SCO output of about 36,000 barrels per worker. Reasons for the increased productivity per worker pertain to both changes in technology and scale, including: • changing from bucketwheel to truck and shovel mining, then to Slurry At Face; • the introduction of hydrotransportation; and • production growth by means of expansion projects that can draw on existing infrastructure and workforce functions. Changing Operations Models Operators of new projects that are remote from Fort McMurray have started to use operations camps to reduce worker travel times and to ensure worker health and safety. In May 2007, Suncor has an operations camp at its Firebag site and the Imperial Oil Kearl and Synenco Northern Lights projects are on record as including operations camps. The worker health and safety concerns brought forward to support operations camps apply to an increasing