CFA Research Challenge

CFA Institute Research Challenge hosted by CFA Society of Argentina and Uruguay Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Arcos Dorados Would you like to large your combo for $13.33? Holdings Inc. We assigned ARCO an initial HOLD rating and a PT of $13.33, a 10.1% upside from its current price. We ground our recommendation on the Recommendation | HOLD following: although ARCO operates in a challenging environment in which uncertainty and risk are present, growth perspectives and potential Target Price | U$S 13.33 market expansion offer the opportunity to cope with these though macro conditions. ARCO is by far the leading QSR chain in LatAm&C, leveraging MCD’s powerful brand image throughout the 20 countries and territories NYSE Ticker | ARCO it operates on and generating revenues of $4,730mm (2013E). ARCO has Reuters | ARCO.N expanded its presence across the region since 2007 and proved being Bloomberg | ARCO:US able to adjust its product offerings to local tastes and people’s lifestyles. Given ARCO’s territories macro difficulties and Company’s strong fundamentals, we estimate that ARCO’s shares are fairly valued. Sector | Services A macro tailwind would be enough to boost ARCO’s financial results. By Industry | Restaurants 2Q2013, ARCO reported a revenues increase of 9.4% yoy (16.9% on an organic basis) to $989.2mm and we estimate revenues and EBITDA CAGR to Initiation Report be 14.23% and 13.79% respectively for the period 2013-2017. Remarkable growth opportunities in the region are underlined by an underpenetrated QSR market in LatAm&C: total McDonald’s restaurants per million people in the Stock Data U$S Latest Price (as of Oct' 22 Territories are almost 12x smaller than in the U.S.. However, ARCO’s upside is 12.11 being eroded by its downside. Not only have local currencies’ depreciations in 2013) the Territories significantly affected ARCO’s 2012 USD-reported results, but 52 week Range (low – high) 10.45 - 15.52 also FX market restrictions in Venezuela & Argentina and current inflation rates Avg Vol (3m) 1,054,150 in the region are threatening ARCO’s growth opportunities. Market Val/ Shares Out (mm) 2,541 / 209,9 ARCO’s strategy: CAPEX. MFA’s requirement over ARCO to invest $60 Fiscal Year End Dec million per year on reinvestment activities and no less than 250 new PER 40.37 restaurants openings in the period 2011-2013, are clear indicators of ARCO’s DPS 0.24 need to capture a large stake on the QSR segment’s growth potential. We EPS (2013E) 0.3 estimated a CAPEX CAGR of 11% for 2013-2017, with 140, 154 and 169 new 2Q13 (Aug' 6 Last Earnings Date restaurant openings for 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively. This strategy is 2013) 3Q13 (Nov' 5 underpinned by ARCO’s operating cash flows and debt issuances, being its Next Earnings Date 2013) actual ND/LTM EBITDA rate 1.7x as of June 30, 2013, and maintaining stable at 2.1x for our 2013’s estimated EBITDA. Source: Yahoo Finance & Team estimates 16,00 ARCO’s latest moves. Prior to release its 3Q2013 results, ARCO announced 14,00mm 15,00 on September 10, 2013 a debt tender and exchange offer for its outstanding 12,00mm U$S308.6 principal amount of its 7.5% Senior Notes due 2019. A total of 14,00 10,00mm 8,00mm U$S90.47 million principal amount was exchanged for $98.77 million principal 13,00 6,00mm 2023 notes (at a $1,092 conversion ratio), partially extending the maturity 12,00 profile of the Company´s debt and delaying principal payments. 4,00mm 11,00 Additionally, new 2023 notes for U$S375 million were issued, strategy that we 2,00mm identify as a necessary step to continue its ambitious expansion plan through 10,00 0,00 the upcoming years. This enabled ARCO also to repurchase U$S118.37 million of principal 2019 notes and repay certain short-term banking debt. ~U$S170mm in cash, net of expenses, went to the Company. Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ARCO) - Volume Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ARCO) - Share Pricing Key points in our valuation. We used a DCF approach weighting FCFF at a Source: Capital IQ constant 14% WACC and constant 27.2% D/EV and FCFE at constant Cost of equity, resulting in $13.33 per share. At PT, ARCO would trade 11.1x Estimated EPS EV/2013E EBITDA. 2013E 0.30 2014E 0.38 2015E 0.50 2016E 0.97 2017E 0.93 Source: Team estimates Unless otherwise stated, $ accounts for US Dollars. A glossary of terms is served in Page XX. 1 BUSINESS DESCRIPTION ARCO is the world's largest MCD's franchisee, accounting for 5.6% of Fig. 1. Network of ARCO’s Restaurants global sales in 2012 and hosting 7% of MCD’s 2012 total franchised restaurants. Arcos Dorados Holding Inc. (ARCO) commenced its operations in 2007 as a result of the acquisition of McDonald’s (MCD) LatAm business and franchise rights. The previous holding company of the MCD LatAm business was Arcos Dorados Limited, which was incorporated in July 2006. On December 2010, ARCO was incorporated as a direct, wholly owned subsidiary of Arcos Dorados Limited, and four days later Arcos Dorados Limited carried out a downstream merger into ARCO, being the latter the surviving entity. ARCO is a British Virgin Islands company with limited liability and subject to British Virgin Islands law. ARCO’s Chairman and CEO is Mr. Woods Staton, who holds 76.2% and 40.0% of the voting and economic interests, respectively. ARCO's corporate headquarters are located in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Staton was the joint venture partner of MCD in Argentina for over 20 years prior to the acquisition and also served as President of MCD South Latin America division from 2004 until the acquisition. ARCO's senior management team is comprised mostly of Source: ARCO’s company presentations executives who have previously worked in MCD LatAm business. Fig. 2. Stock & Market Performance ARCO´s relationship with McDonald's is governed by a MFA, which 40,0% became effective since the acquisition and is eligible for renewal in August 20,0% 2027. Under the MFA, ARCO has the right to operate, own and grant 0,0% franchises of McDonald's-branded restaurants in selected countries and -20,0% territories in LatAm&C. Mr. Staton is required by the MFA to hold at all time at -40,0% least 51% of the voting interests and 30% of the economic interest. -60,0% ARCO held its IPO on April 2011. They launched a primary and secondary -80,0% offer, composed of 9,529,412 new class A shares and 63,954,752 class A -100,0% shares offered by selling shareholders. Class A shares are all listed on the NYSE under the ―ARCO‖ ticker symbol. As of October 2013 Arcos Dorados Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ARCO) - Share Pricing had 209,867 thousand outstanding shares divided among institutional and NYSE Composite Index (^NYA) - Index Value individual investors. Class A shares are entitled to one vote per share and Source: Capital IQ class B shares are entitled to five votes per share. The latter ones are Fig. 3. Geographical Revenues completely owned by Mr. Staton. 8000 Breakdown In Thousands USD Since the acquisition, ARCO has increased its presence in the region. By 7000 the end of 2Q2013, ARCO operated 1,971 restaurants that are distributed in 20 6000 countries and territories across LatAm&C defined as the Territories. Their 5000 operations are divided according to the following geographical division (See 4000 Fig. 1): 3000 • Brazil 2000 • NOLAD: Costa Rica, Mexico and Panama; 1000 • SLAD: Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Uruguay; 0 • Caribbean Division: Aruba, Colombia, Curaçao, French 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Puerto Rico, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela and Brazil NOLAD SLAD Caribbean Division the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas and St. Croix. Source: ARCO’s company reports & Team estimates ARCO classifies its portfolio restaurants into four different categories: freestanding, in-store, food court, and mall stores. As of 2012, 892 (45.8%) of Fig. 4. Store Categories Development ARCO’s restaurants were freestanding, 432 (22.2%) courts, 293 (15.1%) in- stores and 329 (16.9%) mall stores (See Fig. 4). 2000 The MFA regulates ARCO’s and MCD’s relationship. Under the 1500 MFA, ARCO must fulfill with a restaurant opening plan and a reinvestment plan. Both are agreed between ARCO and MCD every three-year period during 1000 the term of the MFA. For the period 2011-2013, ARCO must comply with an 500 0 2010 2011 2012 In-store Freestanding Mall store Food court Source: ARCO’s company reports 2 aggregate reinvestment of $60 million per year and the opening of no less than Fig. 5. Number of Systemwide Restaurants 250 new restaurants. In 2011, there were 85 net restaurants openings and in 2000 1800 2012, 108. For 2013, ARCO expects to achieve 140 gross restaurant 495 1600 482 openings. In addition, ARCO is required to spend at least 5% of gross sales 463 454 1400 485 and its franchisees to pay 5% of their gross sales, in order to fulfill with 1.453 1200 1.358 1.292 advertisement and promotion activities. 1.226 1000 1.155 Strong marketing campaigns help increase market share and penetration. 800 ARCO has a strong marketing calendar, which includes new product 600 introductions and also adding value to existing ones. Throughout the years, it 400 focuses in different key strategic platforms that need to be leveraged in order 200 to drive sales.

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