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Vulnerability of Water Supply Systems to Drought Utah State University DigitalCommons@USU Reports Utah Water Research Laboratory January 1978 Vulnerability of Water Supply Systems to Drought D. T. Jensen Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/water_rep Part of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons, and the Water Resource Management Commons Recommended Citation Jensen, D. T., "Vulnerability of Water Supply Systems to Drought" (1978). Reports. Paper 318. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/water_rep/318 This Report is brought to you for free and open access by the Utah Water Research Laboratory at DigitalCommons@USU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Reports by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@USU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Vulnerability of Water Supply Systems to Drought D. T. Jensen VULNERABILITY OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS TO DROUGHT by D. T. Jensen A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Engineering Approved: a Major Co Committee Member Dean of Graduate Studies UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY Logan, Utah 1978 ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study was supported by Agreement Number 14-34-0001-7094 from the Office of Water Resources Technology to the Utah Water Research Laboratory. I would like to express my sincere appreciation to Dr. David S. Bowles, principal investigator, for his continued interest and critical review of the research. Also, I would like to thank Professors A. Bruce Bishop, Committee Chairman; Joel E. Fletcher, E. Bruce Godfrey, A. Leon Huber and J. Paul Riley for their help, encouragement and participation on the committee. Others who have assisted materially in this study include Dr. Peter M. Ellis, assistant professor of Business Administration and Mr. Mac McKee, research associate, Resource Related Policy Research Program, Utah State University. Most of all I extend my thanks and gratitude to my wife, and family for their patience and support throughout my post-graduate program. D. T. Jensen iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii LIST OF TABLES • vi LIST OF FIGURES vii ABSTRACT x Chapter I. INTRODUCTION 1 Backgro1.md 1 Purpose of Study 3 Significance of Study 4 Research Design 5 Delimitations and Limitations • 6 Summary of Contents • 8 II. LITERATURE REVIEW 9 Introduction 9 Review of Explanation of Drought 9 Causal factors • 9 Problems of prediction 10 A Review of Drought Related Concepts 11 A Review of the Usefulness of Definition and Methods 13 III. METHODS AND PROCEDURES 29 Introduction 29 Drought Indices 29 Drought severity index 30 Furnished demand (F) 31 Municipal demand (D ) 31 m iv· TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page Irrigation demand (D ) 42 I Range of the drought severity index 51 Example calculations of the drought severity index (S) 51 Drought vulnerability index 52 Pilot Studies 53 Municipal studies 53 Milford City 53 Monticello City 56 Orangeville 59 Irrigation studies 61 Milford irrigation area 61 The Oberto Ditch Irrigation area 63 The Logan irrigational area 64 Irrigation studies for planning purposes 66 Statistical Analysis 87 Probabilities and distributions 87 Evaluation Procedures 95 IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 98 Introduction 98 Municipality Results and Discussion 98 Background 98 Milford City 100 Monticello City 102 Orangeville City 106 Comparing the results of the municipalities 108 v TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page Irrigation Area Results and Discussion 112 Background 112 The Logan, Utah, irrigation area 113 The Milford, Utah, irrigation area • 121 The Helper, Utah, irrigation area 123 Comparing results of the irrigation area 127 The use of the drought severity index for planning purposes 127 Application of the Model • 131 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 132 Conclusions 132 Recommendations for Further Study 134 REFERENCES 137 APPENDICES 146 Appendix A. Evapotranspiration Calculations • 147 Appendix B. Data and Drought Severity Index (S) Calculations 149 Appendix C. Computer Programs 159 VITA. 168 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Drought concepts 14 2. Summary of furnished demand (F) definitions, calculations and data for pilot study areas • 32 3. Monticello City furnish demand (F), monthly treatment plant influent (million gallons) 35 4. Monthly weight (M ) for pilot study municipalities w. • 36 5. Outdoor use classification index 38 6. Daily municipal demand (D d) in gallons per • m d ay per caplta . • • . 41 7. Monthly crop growth stage coefficients for alfalfa 45 8. Monthly percent of daytime hours (p) 45 9. Calculation of monthly consumptive use (u) for Milford, Utah, for the 1977 growing season using the Blaney-Criddle method • 47 10. Model 2, autocorrelations of the residual errors 77 11. Modell, autocorrelations of the residual error 77 12. Results of U-test 81 13. Percentages of Logan, Hyde Park and Smithfield Canal of Logan River streamflow 85 14. Percentage of Logan River streamflow assumed diverted to the Logan, Hyde Park and Smithfield Canal when monthly flows are less than 22211 acre-feet 87 vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 15. Statistic parameters for the transformed drought severity index (S ) values. Linear transorm used is Sn = S + 10 89 n 16. Results of transformed drought severity index (S ) values in eight distributions 90 n 17. Results of logarithmic-normal distribution functions and drought probabilities, using transformed drought severity index (S ) data n 94 18. Drought articles, General (Utah), SL Tribune 97 19. Drought articles under agriculture, SL Tribune 97 20. Drought vulnerability index for four water prices for Milford City, Monti­ cello City and Orangeville City, Utah 102 21. Occurence of drought comparisons of drought indices for Milford City, Utah 103 22. Occurrence of drought comparisons of drought indices for Monticello City, Utah 105 23. Occurrence of drought comparisons of drought indices for Orangeville City, Utah 108 24. Drought occurrence and severity sums, for Milford, Monticello and Orangeville, Utah. Water price is $0.20 per thousand gallons 109 25. Comparison of drought indices, for the Logan, Utah irrigation area (May-September) 118 26. Comparison of drought indices for the Milford, Utah irrigation area 124 27. Comparison of drought indices for the Helper, Utah (Oberto Ditch) irrigation area 126 28. Drought severity index comparison among irrigation areas 128 viii LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Table Page B.l Milford Irrigation Data 156 B.2 Oberto Ditch Irrigation Data 157 B.3 Logan Irrigation Area Data 158 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. An example of a series of the theory of runs 27 2. Municipal demand function 40 3. Time series of Logan River streamflow 68 4. An example autocorrelation matrix and its resulting autocorrelation function where Pk is the autocorrelation coefficient and k represents the lag . 70 5. Autocorrelation of monthly streamflow for the Logan River 71 6. Model 2, correlation matrix of parameters 76 7. Modell, correlation matrix of parameters 78 8. Schedule A, Kimball Decree 83 9. Drought severity index values (S) for Milford City 101 10. Drought severity index values for Monticello City 104 11. Drought severity index values (S) for Orangeville City 107 12. Logan, Hyde Park and Smithfield Canal irrigation area, drought severity index, seasonal (April-September) values 114 13. Logan, Hyde Park and Smithfield Canal drought severity index, monthly values (April-September) for irrigation season 115 14. Logan, Hyde Park and Smithfield Canal drought severity index, seasonal (May-September) values 116 x LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 15. Logan, Hyde Park and Smithfield Canal, drought severity index, monthly values (May-September) for irrigation season 117 16. Milford irrigation area drought severity index, seasonal values 122 17. Oberto Ditch (Helper, Utah) irrigation area, drought severity index, seasonal values 125 xi ABSTRACT Vulnerability of Water Supply Systems to Drought by D. T. Jensen, Doctor of Philosophy Utah State University, 1978 Major Professor: A. Bruce Bishop Department: Civil and Environmental Engineering The objective of this study is to develop a relatively simple and practical method for improving the availability and reliability of information about droughts to those responsible for water supply management and planning. The information technique developed provides an objective basis for the selection of water supply management alternatives during periods of drought. The derived drought informa- tion can assist water supply planners and managers in identifying priorities among proposed water supply developments from consideration of water supply vulnerability and existing drought severity levels. Two drought indices are developed to achieve the overall objective of the study: (1) the drought severity index for describing the state of drought as it affects a water supply system and (2) the drought vulnerability index which indicates the probability of water shortage in a water supply system. In addition, the autoregressive, integrated moving average (ARIMA) method is used to develop a model representative of a water supply system and from the model synthetic data are generated using Monte Carlo methods. The synthetic data are utilized in the xii drought severity and vulnerability indices and the probabilities of future water shortage are calculated. In this study the drought severity and vulnerability indices are conceptualized and tested for water supplies of three communities and three irrigation areas. Comparisons are made among the test cases. Excellent results are obtained from the municipality group and
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