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Scenario 2: “Phasing out Nuclear Power” D4.2 DRAFT 4 Building a platform for enhanced societal research related to nuclear energy in Central and Eastern Europe WP 4: Forming a research strategy Scenario 2: “Phasing out nuclear power” D4.2 DRAFT 4 Author(s): Milena Marega, Andrej Klemenc, Nadja Železnik, Contributor(s): Martin Durdovic, Todor Galev, Nadejda Gantcheva, Drago Kos, Marko Polič, Audrius Šimonis, Zdenka Vajdova, Hana Vojtěchová Date of issue of this report: February 2015 Responsible partner: REC Slovenia Project funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Euratom Framework Programme for Nuclear Research &Training Activities DISTRIBUTION LIST Dissemination level: Public Name Number of Comments copies EC Project Officer 1 Electronically Co-ordinator 1 Electronically (pdf file) Contributors 1 per Electronically (pdf file) contributor Work package leaders: 1 per member Electronically (pdf file) Web-site: http://PLATENSOproject.eu/ Electronically (pdf file) Abbreviations CEE – Central and Eastern Europe EE – Energy Efficiency EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment LILW – Low and Intermediate Radioactive Waste RW – Radioactive Waste NMS – New Member States NPP – Nuclear Power Plant RES – Renewable Energy Sources RES-E Renewable Energy Sources - Electricity RUE – Rational Use of Energy SF – Spent Fuel TPES – Total Primary Energy Supply GHG – Greenhouse Gas ACTA – Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement 2 Project: PLATENSO Deliverable: D 4.1 - Scenario 2: “ Phasing out nuclear power ” Content Project context ........................................................................................................................... 5 Summary .................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 8 2. External driving forces that are likely to influence the Scenario 2 ...................................... 11 2.1. Eventual major nuclear accident ...................................................................................... 11 2.2. The shell gas revolution and ACTA agreement between the EU and the USA ..................... 12 2.3. Fast increase of energy efficiency (EE) and growth of renewable energy technologies ....... 13 2.4. Eventual major breakthrough technology ......................................................................... 15 2.5. Eventual mobilization of antinuclear movements as a result of legitimizing crisis of governance ............................................................................................................................ 16 3. Description of situations and plans ...................................................................................... 17 3.1. The historical background and present situation with the nuclear power in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Slovenia ............................................................................................ 17 3.2 The role of nuclear power in energy supply ....................................................................... 19 3.3. Energy policies, programs and concepts ........................................................................... 21 3.4. Legal framework, decision-making process and stakeholder involvement ......................... 24 3.5. Public attitude related to nuclear energy .......................................................................... 25 3.6. Public debates related to phasing out nuclear power ........................................................ 27 3.7. Stress test results............................................................................................................. 28 3.8. Social, societal and governance issues .............................................................................. 30 4. Scenario 2: Phasing out nuclear power - Analyses of social, societal and governance challenges, gaps and problems ................................................................................................. 32 4.1. Narrative description of Scenario 2 and SWOT analysis ..................................................... 32 4.2. Main issues and challenges derived from Scenario 2 ......................................................... 35 4.3. On-going research activities in the PLATENSO countries .................................................. 38 5. Important social, societal and governmental topics derived from Scenario 2 .................. 41 5.1. Important research issues to be addressed for Scenario 2 in the future ............................. 41 5. 2 Resources (human, funds…) ............................................................................................. 50 5. 3 Schedules ........................................................................................................................ 50 6. Conclusions and recommendations...................................................................................... 52 6.1 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 52 6.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 53 7. References ............................................................................................................................ 56 3 Project: PLATENSO Deliverable: D 4.1 - Scenario 2: “ Phasing out nuclear power ” 7.1 Internal project information sources: ................................................................................ 56 7.2 Other sources: .................................................................................................................. 56 8. Appendix .............................................................................................................................. 59 4 Project: PLATENSO Deliverable: D 4.1 - Scenario 2: “ Phasing out nuclear power ” Project context The objective of PLATENSO is to provide a proposal towards establishing the legal base for a European Entity on Socio-Economic matters linked to nuclear technology and to develop recommendations for research strategies to enhance the capabilities of research institutions in Central and Eastern European countries to take part in EU research with respect to governance, social and societal aspects of nuclear energy in PLATENSO countries. Thereby the capabilities of research institutes in Central and Eastern European countries to take part in EU research with respect to governance, social and societal aspects is enhanced. Initially, lessons learned from earlier projects, what is the state of knowledge in societal, social and governance issues are reviewed and summarized. The research infrastructures within which project activities and future research are to take place are mapped and efforts are made to make sure research actors frame their approaches broad enough. Research strategies are formed for research in governance, social and societal issues in which participation in EU Programmes is an integrated part. The strategies are tested with case studies to make sure they are feasible to implement. A number of networking activities are carried through as a major step toward actual foundation of the strategies in PLATENSO countries. In each country a PLATENSO partner will take responsibility for building a network of research institutions in its respective country. Establishment of the legal base for a European Entity on Socio-Economic matters linked to nuclear technology has potential to overcome the barriers that still exist for taking them fully into account and to make the awareness of the social and political challenges to come to action. On the basis of exploratory studies focusing on Central and Eastern Europe, but considering also development in Western Europe due to its strong interconnection within EU, and contacts with relevant stakeholders in all EU, the project will analyse main aspects with regard to the implementation of the entity (organization, legal form, communication structure, content, etc.). Major areas on social, societal and governance issues for the envisaged Entity will be proposed. A nuclear energy scenario based on the Generation 4 ALLEGRO (Gas Fast Reactor Demonstrator) reactor concept will be given special attention as a pilot case for the European Entity giving support to ALLEGRO in social, societal and governance issues, which will include testing the draft strategy for research. The exact forms for this will be developed in close cooperation between PLATENSO and the ALLIANCE project (Preparation of ALLEGRO – Implementing Advance Nuclear Fuel Cycle in Central Europe). 5 Project: PLATENSO Deliverable: D 4.1 - Scenario 2: “ Phasing out nuclear power ” Summary The document in question is addressing one of the three possible nuclear development scenarios – phasing out nuclear power in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Slovenia, considering rather big technical and socio-economic differences between these countries and taking into account relevant social, societal and governmental issues in this context. By phasing out we understand a planned and politically backed up abrupt and permanent stop of operation of commercial nuclear power plants in a country prior to their technical life span with anticipated and confirmed plans on their decommissioning and management of radioactive waste resulting from previous operation and actual decommissioning of the
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