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Scenarios Forum Meeting Report 4Oct19.Pdf FREDERICK S. PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES EXPLORE UNDERSTAND SHAPE WORKING PAPER 2019.10.04 FORUM ON SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE AND SOCIETAL FUTURES: MEETING REPORT Authors: Brian C. O’Neill, Cecilia Conde, Kristie Ebi, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jan Fuglestvedt, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kasper Kok, Elmar Kriegler, Seth Monteith, Ramon Pichs-Madruga, Ben Preston, Jana Sillman, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren. October 4, 2019 PARDEE.DU.EDU Forum on Scenarios of Climate and Societal Futures University of Denver, Denver, CO March 11-13, 2019 Scientific Steering Committee Brian C. O’Neill, University of Denver, USA (Chair); Cecilia Conde, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Mexico; Kristie Ebi, University of Washington, USA; Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter, UK; Jan Fuglestvedt, Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), Norway; Tomoko Hasegawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan; Kasper Kok, Wageningen University, Netherlands; Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Seth Monteith, ClimateWorks Foundation, USA; Ramon Pichs-Madruga, Center for Research on the Global Economy (CIEM), Cuba; Ben Preston, Rand, USA; Jana Sillman, Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), Norway; Bas van Ruijven, International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Austria; Detlef van Vuuren, Netherlands Environmental Agency (PBL), Netherlands Acknowledgments The Scenarios Forum was generously supported by: The ClimateWorks Foundation Office of Research and Sponsored Programs, University of Denver Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver The Forum was kindly endorsed by: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Committee on New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS) World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) The Forum was hosted by: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO. This report benefited greatly from the following contributions: Summaries of parallel sessions by session organizers (see Appendix V) Summary thoughts by presenters in the final plenary (Jan Fuglestvedt, Paula Harrison, Elmar Kriegler, Julia Leininger, Bas van Ruijven) Participants providing feedback to the final plenary and during the meeting Suggested Citation O’Neill, B.C., Conde, C., Ebi, K., Friedlingstein, P., Fuglestvedt, J., Hasegawa, T., Kok, K., Kriegler, E., Monteith, S., Pichs-Madruga, R., Preston, B., Sillman, J., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. 2019. Forum on Scenarios of Climate and Societal Futures: Meeting Report. Pardee Center Working Paper 2019.10.04, University of Denver, Denver, CO. 107 pp. 2 Contents Background and goals ............................................................................................................... 5 Outline of the meeting ................................................................................................................ 6 Meeting outcomes ...................................................................................................................... 7 Summary of parallel sessions ................................................................................................. 7 Key highlights and notable advances facilitated by the framework ...................................... 7 Suggested improvements and extensions ........................................................................... 8 Planned follow up activities ................................................................................................. 9 Summary of plenary sessions ................................................................................................. 9 Summary of online final plenary.............................................................................................12 Insights ..............................................................................................................................12 Challenges .........................................................................................................................12 Conclusions and next steps ......................................................................................................13 Appendices ...............................................................................................................................14 Appendix I: List of participants ...............................................................................................14 Appendix II: Forum agenda ...................................................................................................17 Appendix III: Research gaps and needs ................................................................................21 Appendix IV: Summary of online final plenary and feedback .................................................24 Insights ..............................................................................................................................24 Challenges .........................................................................................................................26 Next steps ..........................................................................................................................29 Appendix V: Session organizer questionnaire and feedback .................................................33 Questionnaire ....................................................................................................................33 Biodiversity ........................................................................................................................34 Communication ..................................................................................................................36 Demographics ....................................................................................................................37 Economic modeling ............................................................................................................40 Electrification .....................................................................................................................42 Extremes............................................................................................................................44 Finance ..............................................................................................................................45 Geoengineering .................................................................................................................47 Governance .......................................................................................................................49 Impact Costs ......................................................................................................................51 3 Impacts - I ..........................................................................................................................53 Impacts - II .........................................................................................................................55 Impressions .......................................................................................................................57 Inequality ...........................................................................................................................61 Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................64 IPCC AR6 ..........................................................................................................................65 Migration ............................................................................................................................74 Multi-scale Scenarios .........................................................................................................76 Nitrogen .............................................................................................................................78 Oceans ..............................................................................................................................81 Overshoot ..........................................................................................................................82 Regional climate ................................................................................................................84 Scenarios and assessment ................................................................................................85 Scenarios as Service .........................................................................................................87 Short-lived Forcers .............................................................................................................88 SSP Extensions .................................................................................................................91 Subnational ........................................................................................................................92 SDGs .................................................................................................................................95 Taking Stock ......................................................................................................................97 Tracking progress ...........................................................................................................
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