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Energy Scenarios for Sustainable Development in the Mediterranean Region: the Case of Egypt

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Energy Scenarios for Sustainable Development in the Mediterranean Region: the Case of Egypt POLITECNICO DI MILANO Scuola di Ingegneria Industriale e dell’Informazione Corso di Laurea Magistrale in Ingegneria Energetica Energy Scenarios for Sustainable Development in the Mediterranean Region: the Case of Egypt Relatore: Ch.ma Prof. Emanuela COLOMBO Correlatore: Dott. Gabriele CASSETTI Tesi di Laurea di: Matteo AGOSTINELLI Matr. 804817 Anno Accademico 2014-2015 «Common sense in an uncommon degree is what the world calls wisdom» Samuel Taylor Coleridge i ii Ringraziamenti Giunto alla fine di questo percorso, dopo più di 5 anni di studi, sono davvero moltissime le persone che devo ringraziare. In primo luogo ringrazio i miei genitori: grazie per essere stati sempre presenti. Grazie per avermi sopportato e incoraggiato costantemente, senza stancarvi mai. Ringrazio mio fratello Alessio e la sua famiglia, per la serenità che sono sempre riusciti a trasmettermi e per avermi sempre ascoltato. Un ringraziamento particolare va anche a mio zio, per i preziosi consigli e la comprensione. Grazie a tutti i miei compagni di studi: con la vostra vicinanza vi siete rivelati amici più che semplici colleghi. In particolare ringrazio il gruppo storico, nonostante vi abbia spesso “paccato”, senza di voi questa esperienza sarebbe stata molto più monotona e decisamente meno divertente, quindi grazie Gian, Bri, Leo, Parlop, Edo, Cri e Mae. Grazie agli amici che in questi anni mi sono stati d’aiuto e supporto nelle difficoltà e con i quali ho condiviso avventure ed esperienze che mi hanno reso la persona che sono oggi. Siete troppi per essere citati singolarmente e rischierei di dimenticarne qualcuno, spero che non vi offendiate. Ho sempre cercato di dimostrarvi quanto la vostra amicizia sia fondamentale nella mia quotidianità e spero di essere riuscito a trasmettere ad almeno la metà di voi perlomeno metà dell’affetto che vi meritate. In caso contrario ci vedremo al Potus per una birra. Ringrazio Laura per la sua storica amicizia, per la sua allegria contagiosa e per avermi aspettato tutto questo tempo per la festa. Un grazie va anche a Simone, per la sua disponibilità e perché assieme a R&T mi hanno regalato innumerevoli ore di divertimento e di sfogo. Grazie a tutti voi, membri della GBS, che siete cresciuti insieme a me in questi anni. Grazie perché siete stati sempre presenti, soprattutto nei momenti difficili. Ho trovato in voi un vero tesoro. Grazie Presidente dimissionario. Infine grazie a te, Martina. Mi hai sempre incoraggiato e sostenuto, mi sei sempre stata accanto e so che non mi lascerai mai solo. Matteo iii iv Index RINGRAZIAMENTI .................................................................................................................................... III INDEX .............................................................................................................................................................. V ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................... IX ESTRATTO IN LINGUA ITALIANA ........................................................................................................ XI INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 TRINEX PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ....................................................... 4 CHAPTER 2: NILE BASIN ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................... 7 2.1 THE RIVER NILE FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.1 The Nile River................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.2 WEF Nexus in the Nile Basin ....................................................................................................... 10 2.1.3 Policy framework in Nile Basin .................................................................................................... 16 2.1.4 Projects and strategies ................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 THE NILE QUESTION FROM AN EGYPTIAN PERSPECTIVE ........................................................................ 21 2.2.1 Water ............................................................................................................................................. 22 2.2.2 The impact of water shortage on food security ............................................................................. 25 2.2.3 Energy ........................................................................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 3: METODOLOGICAL APPROACH .................................................................................... 41 3.1 GENERAL OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................. 41 3.1.1 Bottom-up Models ........................................................................................................................ 42 3.1.2 LEAP: Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system ............................................................ 44 3.2 FRAMEWORK OF ENERGY DEMAND MODEL .......................................................................................... 49 3.2.1 Activity Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 51 3.3 TRANSFORMATION CALCULATION ......................................................................................................... 53 3.3.1 Endogenous Capacity Expansion Calculations ............................................................................. 57 3.3.2. Process Dispatch Calculations ..................................................................................................... 58 3.3.3 Dispatching Processes on a Load Curve ....................................................................................... 59 v 3.3.4 Shortfall and Surplus Calculations ................................................................................................ 61 3.3.5 Calculation of Systems with Feedback Flows ............................................................................... 61 3.4 SCENARIO ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................. 62 3.5 OPTIMIZATION........................................................................................................................................ 65 3.5.1 OSeMOSYS Formulation .............................................................................................................. 67 CHAPTER 4: MODEL STRUCTURE ........................................................................................................ 75 4.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 75 4.2 INPUT DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................ 76 4.2.1 Socioeconomic Variables .............................................................................................................. 76 4.2.2 Boundaries and Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 79 4.2.3 Resources ....................................................................................................................................... 80 4.2.4 Fuel Prices ..................................................................................................................................... 82 4.3.5 Start up costs and fuel use of power plants .................................................................................... 83 4.2.6 Investments .................................................................................................................................... 84 4.3 ENERGY DEMAND SETTING AND FORECAST ........................................................................................... 85 4.3.1 Demand Setting ............................................................................................................................. 86 4.3.2 Demand Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 91 4.3.3 Demand Forecast Analysis ............................................................................................................ 94 4.4 TRANSFORMATION ................................................................................................................................. 97 4.4.1 Transformation Processes and Losses ........................................................................................... 98 4.4.2 Electricity Generation .................................................................................................................... 99 4.4.3 Oil Refining ................................................................................................................................. 103 CHAPTER 5: SCENARIO SIMULATION AND RESULTS .................................................................. 104 5.1 SCENARIO DESCRIPTION......................................................................................................................
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