Ec-Leds Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies
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Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning to Address
U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning To Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation Cover photo: Moose in mist at Aroostook National Wildlife Refuge in Maine. Credit: Sharon Wallace This publication has met scientific peer review standards and been approved for publication in accordance with U.S. Geological Survey Fundamental Science Practices. Authors: Erika L. Rowland1, Molly S. Cross1, Holly Hartmann2 *Author for correspondence ([email protected]) 1 Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT 2 University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ Guide Development Team: Kurt Johnson (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), Donna Brewer (USFWS), Michelle Haynes (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), Richard Sojda (U.S. Geological Survey), Kathryn Irvine (USGS) Rowland, E.R., Cross, M.S., Hartmann, H. (2014) Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning To Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation. Washington, DC: US Fish and Wildlife Service. Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..............................................................vii SECTION 1 SCENARIO PLANNING AND ITS APPLICATION .............................1 1.1 WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING AND WHY IS IT HELPFUL? . 2 Importance of incorporating uncertainty into natural resource management................3 Scenario planning as a tool for dealing with uncertainty..................................4 1.2 WHEN SHOULD SCENARIO PLANNING BE USED? . 9 Levels of uncertainties, -
The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities
Technical Supplement The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities June 2017 Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure i Contents A Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 1 B Scenario Analysis ........................................................................................................................................... 2 1. Why is Scenario Analysis Useful? ................................................................................................................................ 2 2. What Is a Scenario? ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 3. How are Organizations Using Climate-Related Scenario Analysis? ........................................................................ 3 C Developing and Applying Scenario Analysis ............................................................................................... 4 1. Considerations for Building Climate Change into Scenario Analysis ..................................................................... 5 2. Analytical Choices in Scenario Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 8 3. Tools and Data ........................................................................................................................................................... -
Linked Open Data: the Essentials a Quick Start Guide for Decision Makers
This is a quick start guide for decision makers who need to quickly get up to speed Florian Bauer, Martin Kaltenböck with the Linked Open Data (LOD) concept, and who want to make their organization a part of this movement. Linked Open Data: It gives a quick overview of all key aspects of LOD, and gives practical answers to many pertinent questions including: The Essentials • What do the terms Open Data, Open Government Data and Linked Open Data actually mean, and what are the dierences between them? A Quick Start Guide for • What do I need to take into account in developing a LOD strategy for my organization? Decision Makers • What does my organization need to do technically in order to open up and publish its data sets? • How can I make sure the data is accessible and digestible for others? • How can I add value to my own data sets by consuming LOD from other sources? • What can be learned from three case studies of best practices in LOD? • REEEP's clean energy information portal reegle.info • NREL's Open Energy Information Portal • The ocial home of UK legislation: legislation.gov.uk • What are the potentials offered by this fundamental step-change in the way data is shared and consumed via the web? edition mono ISBN: 978-3-902796-05-9 Linked Open Data: The Essentials A Quick Start Guide for Decision Makers by Florian Bauer (REEEP) and Martin Kaltenböck (Semantic Web Company) 2 Imprint Published by: edition mono/monochrom, Vienna, Austria ISBN: 978-3-902796-05-9 Print: DGS – Druck- u. -
Final Report
Report CDKN EYE Evaluation 2014 FINAL REPORT Date: June 2015 Submitted by Itad Authors: Gil Yaron, Robbie Gregorowski, Isabel Vogel, Paula Silva Villanueva, Alex Dorgan Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Table of Contents .............................................................................................................................................. ii Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................................... iii Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................................ iv CDKN EYE5 Executive Summary ................................................................................................ vi 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................... -
Learning from the Future Through Scenario Planning
Learning from the future through scenario planning Michael J Blyth Four Scenes Pty Ltd March 2005 Decisions made today are usually for an uncertain future. The future is unknowable, yet we choose to devote a lot of resources and effort to discussing and studying possibilities before we make decisions about new directions or new investments. Van der Heijden (2000, p.31) suggests the reason we do this is that there is at least something in the future which is predictable. There are many approaches to discovering what the future might hold, but few provide the insights and genuine learning that scenario planning can provide. Scenarios can help decision-makers understand what is truly uncertain and what is more predictable. This paper provides an introduction to scenario planning, explaining what scenarios are, why and when to use scenarios and how to create scenarios. What are scenarios? Scenarios are instruments for ordering people’s perceptions about alternative futures in which decisions made today might play out. A scenario embodies a plausible view or perception of the future in a given year linked to conditions in the present via an internally consistent sequence of events. A scenario could be described as a road map from the present to the future. The use of scenarios in strategic decision making and corporate planning was pioneered by the Royal Dutch/Shell Company during the 1970s. The method is best suited to organisations and industries which are extremely sensitive to external factors beyond their control and where time frames are relatively long. The use of scenario planning techniques as described in this paper is widespread in private industry and in the public sector. -
Economics of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Asia Options and Costs
Economics of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Asia Options and Costs Financed under ADB-Australia South Asia Development Partnership Facility Economics of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Asia Options and Costs Ram Manohar Shrestha Mahfuz Ahmed Suphachol Suphachalasai Rodel Lasco December 2012 Financed under ADB-Australia South Asia Development Partnership Facility © 2013 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published 2013. Printed in the Philippines. ISBN 978-92-9092-143-1 (Print), 978-92-9092-383-1 (PDF) Publication Stock No. BKK135371-2 Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shrestha, R.M., M. Ahmed, S. Suphachalasai, and R.D. Lasco. Economics of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in South Asia: Options and costs. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2013. 1. Climate change. 2. Mitigation. 3. South Asia. I. Asian Development Bank. the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADB. Cover photos from ADB photo library and AFP Imageforum. Note: In this report, “$” refers to US dollars. -
Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World
Essay Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World GARRY D. PETERSON,*‡ GRAEME S. CUMMING,† AND STEPHEN R. CARPENTER* *Center for Limnology, 680 N. Park Street, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706–1492, U.S.A. †Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Newins-Ziegler 303, Box 110430, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, U.S.A. Abstract: Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations for the future. When the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expecta- tions, however, our expectations will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers a framework for developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A scenario in this context is an account of a plausible future. Scenario planning consists of using a few con- trasting scenarios to explore the uncertainty surrounding the future consequences of a decision. Ideally, sce- narios should be constructed by a diverse group of people for a single, stated purpose. Scenario planning can incorporate a variety of quantitative and qualitative information in the decision-making process. Often, con- sideration of this diverse information in a systemic way leads to better decisions. Furthermore, the participa- tion of a diverse group of people in a systemic process of collecting, discussing, and analyzing scenarios builds shared understanding. The robustness provided by the consideration of multiple possible futures has served several groups well; we present examples from business, government, and conservation planning that illustrate the value of scenario planning. For conservation, major benefits of using scenario planning are (1) increased understanding of key uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, and (3) greater resilience of decisions to surprise. -
Review of Networks and Platforms for Low Emission and Climate Compatible Development Planning
Review of Networks and Platforms for Low Emission and Climate Compatible Development Planning Discussion Paper Prepared by the Coordinated Low Emissions Assistance Network (CLEAN) December 1, 2011 Executive Summary This paper responds to a request from the July 13th High Level Dialogue on Low Emission Development Policy Implementation convened by the World Bank for a review of existing networks and platforms supporting low emission and climate compatible development planning. It also presents results from an inventory of LEDS related programs across countries. This review is a preliminary desk based study based on information available through web sites, publications, and other information available to the authors. The conclusions presented here should be treated with caution given the limitations of the review, including the need for further dialogue and input from developing countries to evaluate the adequacy of existing networks and platforms relative to their needs and priorities. The review highlights the following trends: LEDS Networks and Platforms . A rich portfolio of low emission and climate compatible development platforms and networks are operating, with some notable gaps as highlighted in other points below. Many of these networks and platforms are seeking increased participation by developing countries and have not achieved balanced engagement across both developed and developing countries across regions. Few networks bring together private sector companies and investors with country government officials, international program managers, and technical institutes. High level political leaders across countries from all regions are not actively engaging in ongoing dialogue on LEDs issues through the existing networks, although several forums have tried with limited success to foster such high level dialogue. -
Futures Studies Jim Dator Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies Department of Political Science University of Hawaii at Manoa
Futures Studies Jim Dator Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies Department of Political Science University of Hawaii at Manoa Published as "Futures Studies ," in William Sims Bainbridge, ed., Leadership in Science and Technology. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Reference Series, 2011, Vol. 1, Chapter Four, pp. 32-40. Who Are Futurists, and What Do They Do? It is a common cliché to assert that all humans are futurists. Without a doubt a distinct human capability is to dream, scheme, plan ahead, and then create the technologies necessary to strive for and perhaps attain the dream. But many other species do so as well. Humans are not unique in this except for the scope of their dreams and the power of their technologies. But if all humans are futurists, then humans are also chemists, physicists, historians, priests and everything else. Yet we still needed physicists and engineers to get to the Moon in spite of eons of dreams and stories about space flight, and it seems even the most fundamental and protestant among us still feel the need for some kind of priests to keep us out of hell, and so it probably is the case that futurists can be useful in helping us think more clearly about the causes and consequences of our dreams and fears about the futures. No one can accurately "predict" exactly what "the future" of anything of consequence will be, though there are many charlatans who say they can, and who are paid big bucks for their "predictions", almost all of which prove not only to be false, but dangerously so. -
Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: the Lived Experiences of Executives Robert John Gaskill-Clemons Walden University
Walden University ScholarWorks Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection 2018 Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives Robert John Gaskill-Clemons Walden University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations Part of the Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, and the Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection at ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Walden University College of Management and Technology This is to certify that the doctoral study by Robert Gaskill-Clemons has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the review committee have been made. Review Committee Dr. Thomas Schaefer, Committee Chairperson, Doctor of Business Administration Faculty Dr. Scott Burrus, Committee Member, Doctor of Business Administration Faculty Dr. Steve Roussas, University Reviewer, Doctor of Business Administration Faculty Chief Academic Officer Eric Riedel, Ph.D. Walden University 2018 Abstract Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives by Robert John Gaskill-Clemons MBA, University of Maryland University College, 2010 MS, University of Maryland University College, 2009 BS, University of Maryland University College, 2008 Doctoral Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Business Administration Walden University April 2018 Abstract Organizational adaptability is critical to organizational survival, and executive leadership’s inability to adapt to extreme disruptive complex events threatens survival. -
Global Atlas for Solar and Wind Energy
Global Atlas for Solar and Wind Energy Proposal for the Implementation Summary paper October 5th, 2011 Global atlas for solar and wind energy page 3 of 24 Table of Contents GLOBAL ATLAS FOR SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY ................................................................................. 1 PROPOSAL FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................................................................ 1 Summary paper .............................................................................................................................................. 1 1 COLLABORATION IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CEM MULTILATERAL WORKING GROUP ON SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES ........................................................................ 4 2 PARTNERSHIP ......................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 LEAD COUNTRIES ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 PARTNER ORGANISATIONS ......................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 RESEARCH INSTITUTES .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.4 NGOS ....................................................................................................................................................... -
A Framework for 2 Degrees Scenario Analysis
A FRAMEWORK FOR 2 DEGREES SCENARIO ANALYSIS: A Guide for Oil and Gas Companies and Investors for Navigating the Energy Transition ABOUT CERES Ceres is a non-profit organization that is mobilizing many of the world’s largest companies and investors to take stronger action on climate change, water scarcity and other global sustainability challenges. Ceres directs the Investor Network on Climate Risk, a group of 124 institutional investors managing $15 trillion in assets focused on the business risks and opportunities of climate change and water scarcity. Ceres also engages with 100-plus companies, many of them Fortune 500 businesses, committed to sustainable business practices and the urgency for strong climate and clean energy policies. For more information, visit www.ceres.org or follow on Twitter@CeresNews. ABOUT AMY MYERS JAFFE Amy Myers Jaffe is a leading expert on global energy policy, geopolitical risk, and energy and sustainability. Jaffe serves as executive director for Energy and Sustainability at University of California, Davis, and as senior advisor, energy and sustainability to the Office of the Chief Investment Officer of the Regents, University of California. She is associate editor (North America) for the academic journal Energy Strategy Reviews and serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Economics and Energy and Environmental Policy. Jaffe’s research focuses on sustainable investment, corporate investment strategies in the energy sector, and oil and gas geopolitics. Jaffe is also a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington D.C. ABOUT CERES’ CARBON ASSET RISK (CAR) INITIATIVE Persistently low oil prices, the success of the Paris Agreement, and the rapid evolution of clean energy technologies have combined to present the oil and gas industry with a significant risk to its business model.