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Home , Ansari X Prize, Archon X Prize, Centennial challenges, X Prize Cup, X Prize Foundation

Advancements through Prizes

William Pomerantz Director of Space Projects

X PRIZE Foundation

X PRIZE FoundationX PRIZE FoundaNIAC Annualtion MeetingNI –AC October Annual 17, Me 2006eting – October 17, 2006 1 OUTLINE

• Prize History • • Wirefly • NG – Lunar Challenge • Future Prizes

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 2

• Original ANSARI X PRIZE was largely inspired by the Orteig Prize, a $25K prize offered in 1919 and won in 1927 by – About $280K in current dollars • Charles Nungesser, René Fonck, Hubert Fauntleroy Julian, Francois Coli, … and Lindbergh?

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 3 Orteig Prize

• 9 teams spent $400,000 (about $4.5 million today) – or 16 times the prize value • Within eight months of Lindbergh’s … – the number of airplanes in the U.S. quadrupled, – the number of pilots tripled – the number of individuals buying airline tickets increased 30-fold, from 5,700 to nearly 180,000. • Aviation today is a multi-trillion dollar industry and a vital component of the global economy

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 4 Other Noteworthy Prizes

• Longitude Prize • Kremer Prize • DARPA Grand Challenges • $30M Super Efficient Refrigerator Prize • 100,000-Franc Soda Alkali Prize • Feynman nano-tech prizes – working electric motor 1/64 inch – written text at 1/25,000 scale

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 5 ANSARI X PRIZE

• $10M prize for – Privately funded – 100km – 3 people (or weight equivalent) – Repeated • 26 teams • 7 countries • $100M + spent

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 6 ANSARI X PRIZE

• Technological advances • Regulatory reform • Legitimization • Hero Creation

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 7 Wirefly X PRIZE Cup

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 8 2005 Countdown to the Cup

• 10,000+ people • Flights from XCOR, Armadillo • Test Firing by Starchaser • Static Displays, mock-ups, etc • Dominated regulatory talk at the COMSTAC meetings • Intense involvement from FAA Staff

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 9 2006 Wirefly X PRIZE Cup

• Friday-Saturday, October 20-21 • Las Cruces International Airport, NM • International Personal Symposium (Tuesday- Wednesday) • Executive Summit (Thursday) • Education Day on Friday

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 10 2006 Wirefly X PRIZE Cup

• Connect personally with the industry • Meet engineers, entrepreneurs, leaders, investors, competitors, and customers • See high powered , static fires, fly-bys • Talks by

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 11 Elevator Games

• Two NASA • Offered by the Spaceward Foundation, hosted by the Wirefly X PRIZE Cup • $200K Tether Competition • $200K Beam Power Competition

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 12 LLC

• $2M in prizes provided by NASA • Sponsored by Northrop Grumman Corp • 4 registered teams this year • Money left on the table this year will be available at next year’s Cup

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 13 Prize Rules – NGLLC

• Vertical Take-Off and Landing rocketry • 25kg payload • Two flights in 150 minutes—including preparation time • Level One – 90 second flight times • Level Two – 180 second flight times – Simulated Lunar Surface

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 14 Lunar Landings - NGLLC

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 15 Northrop Grumman LLC

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X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 16 Northrop Grumman LLC

• Designed to be a multi-year prize; this year’s competition is the debut of the event • Many potential competitors attending this year to observe, recruit partners • Many regulatory hurdles cleared this year, lowering the barriers for next year • Prize announcement: May 5, 2006 – 168 days between announcement and competition

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 17 NGLLC Teams: Acuity

• Aerospace development company based in Menlo Park, CA • Producer of UAVs and other experimental aircraft • First venture into rocketry

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 18 NGLLC Teams: Armadillo

• Original ANSARI X PRIZE team • No paid employees • Two day a week labor • “Build it, test it, fly it” philosophy

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 19 NGLLC Teams: Masten

• 6 full time employees • Moved from Mountainview, CA to Mojave, CA to better pursue this Challenge • Also offering $99 CanSat program • Working towards manned orbital vehicle

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 20 NGLLC Teams: Micro-Space

• Original ANSARI X PRIZE Competitor • 4 employees • Based out of Denver, CO • Background in amateur rocketry • “Spartan” designs

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 21 NGLLC - Video

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 22 for Genomics

• $10M prize • Sequence 100 human genomes • 10 days or less • ≤1 error per 10,000 bases sequenced • Cover at least 98% of the genome • Recurring cost of ≤$10,000 per genome

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 23 Archon X PRIZE for Genomics

• Support from both public and private teams from original Human Genome project • Holds the key to truly preventative medicine • Prize winning team will also sequence the “Genome 100” – Stephen Hawking, , , , , Larry King…

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 24 Future Prizes – Where Next?

• We conquered the Kármán line • Working on the Human Genome • Working on fuel efficiency and climate change • Turning our eyes back to space

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 25 Next Stop: the ?

• Suborbital market has already been jumpstarted; and orbital tourism already has a track record • NASA has been charged with going back to the moon, and is beginning a strong program of lunar exploration • Is the moon a good goal for the next X PRIZE?

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 26 Lunar X PRIZE : BlastOff!

• Entertainment and Media- driven business model • Missions sending multiple rovers to Apollo sites • Lunar Olympics with competitions between different national teams • Demonstrations to create saleable legacy hardware

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 27 Lunar X PRIZE : BlastOff!

• Raised and spent over $15M from 2000-2002 • Launch procured • Mission cost estimates of $50M for 1st and $20M for 2nd • Projected Revenues of $250M

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 28 Lunar X PRIZE : Other Proofs

• LunaCorp – Planned 440-pound (200- Kg) rover, with night-time operation – Signed $1M sponsorship deal with RadioShack – Partnership with Carnegie Mellon University • Transorbital – Planned orbiter, with follow-on landers – Partnership with HP

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 29 Lunar X PRIZE

• In Summer 2006, XPF conducted a study built around an industry survey of CEO level individuals from industry, academia, and government • General consensus a the Lunar X Prize would be worth its cost as a PR tool alone, on top of any engineering, science, or industry building benefits • Great interest and enthusiasm among potential competitors as well as potential financiers • NASA could play a key role both by legitimizing teams and by demonstrating a “with us, not against us” attitude towards private enterprise

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 30 Lunar X PRIZE : Feasibility

When asked about a Lunar X PRIZE with a total prize purse of $20M

Feasibility without NASA launch Feasibility with NASA launch support support

Mission 1 All respondents assumed feasible with or without NASA launch support

Mission 2 70 % of respondent assumed 90 % of respondent assumed such a such a mission is feasible without mission is feasible with NASA launch NASA launch support support

Mission 3 70 % of respondent assumed 80% of respondent assumed such a such a mission is feasible without mission is feasible with NASA launch NASA launch support support

Mission 1: Simple lander, survives for ~2 weeks, no location specified Mission 2: Rover returning video of an Apollo landing site Mission 3: Targeted lander carrying payload to South Pole

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 31 Lunar X PRIZE : Teams & Time

When asked about a Lunar X PRIZE with a total prize purse of $20M

# of Serious US- Likely mission victory # of Serious Likely mission victory based Teams, date, relative to US-based date, relative to with no launch announcement, without Teams, with announcement, with support launch support launch support launch support Mission 1 5 (σ =2.3) 3 years (σ =1) 7 (σ =2.5) 3.4 years (σ =1.8)

Mission 2 3 (σ =2.6) 4 years (σ = 1.7) 4 (σ =3.1) 3.7 years (σ =2)

Mission 3 2 (σ =2) 3.7 years (σ = 1.2) 3 (σ =2.4) 4.5 years (σ =2.1)

Mission 1: Simple lander, survives for ~2 weeks, no location specified Mission 2: Rover returning video of an Apollo landing site Mission 3: Targeted lander carrying payload to South Pole

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 32 FINDINGS: Follow-ons

•Involve other Mission Directorates and NASA Centers • Potential follow-up and synergy with other Challenges – MoonROx – Lunar Extraction – Lunar Night-time Power – Human Lunar ATV – Northrop Grumman LLC – Lunar Orbiter Challenge – Martian Robotic Landing Challenge • Supplement prize with other programs? – Traditional Procurements – Reimbursable Space Act Agreements – Involvement or “Pole Position” for Future Missions • Directly support VSE (site scouting, equipment test) • Encourage teams to pursue other business options simultaneously

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 33 RECOMMENDATIONS: Option 1

• “Stair-cased” approach – 3 aforementioned mission profiles could be proposed in a series of low-cost programmatic missions to be realized in sequence over a decade for ~$50M – Guarantee of Prizes 2 and 3 allows reduction of purse for Prizes 1

Prize 1: $10M for the first private Lunar Robotic Lander

Prize 2: $20M for targeted Lunar rover

Prize 3: $20M targeted Polar payload delivery

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 34 RECOMMENDATIONS: Option 2

•“A la carte” approach: – Initial $20 million prize is for payload delivery • Specified amount of mass, volume, energy, bandwidth, and duration • Possibly split into $15M 1st place and $5M 2nd place – Mission Directorates and Centers offer pay-for- data or pay-for-services contracts to all comers

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 35 RECOMMENDATIONS: Option 2

Prizes Purchase of services

$X1 for Site Scouting

$X2 for Comm / Nav Infrastructure $15M prize

$X3 for Sample Return

$X4 for Tele-robotics

$X5 for Astronomy Data

$5M prize $X6 for Dust Level Detection

Et cetera

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 36 RECOMMENDATIONS: Option 3

• A stand-alone $20M prize could also work: – A $20M prize purse without a clear science purpose – Opt for a “functionality” approach - e.g. specified number of photos with a certain resolution, rather than a certain mass or system • High value to the return of high quality photos of lunar surface, Earthrise, and full – Teams select landing location – No surface mobility required

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 37 Government Prizes

• In October 2006, NASA Centennial Challenges moved within NASA, leaving the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate and joining the Innovative Partnerships Program • National Defense Authorization Act of FY2007 expands DoD prize authority to Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDRE) and the Service Acquisition Executives (SAEs) • H-Prize Legislation passed in the House • Authority is there; funding is the problem!

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 38 Future Prizes

• Opportunities both for Challenges and X Prizes abound – Challenges: 1-3 years, $100K - $5M, incremental changes – X PRIZEs: 3-10 years, $10M+, revolutionary changes and breakthroughs • Funding mechanisms needed – Philanthropy – Federal – Industry Consortia – PPP

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 39 Future Prizes

• Challenges – Reusable rockets – Non-toxic propellants – Nano-sat launchers • X PRIZEs – Lunar – Orbital – Suborbital Point-to-point – Breakthrough Propellants

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 40 QUESTIONS?

X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 41