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Advancements Through Prizes

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Advancements Through Prizes Advancements through Prizes William Pomerantz Director of Space Projects X PRIZE Foundation X PRIZE FoundationX PRIZE FoundaNIAC Annualtion MeetingNI –AC October Annual 17, Me 2006eting – October 17, 2006 1 OUTLINE • Prize History • ANSARI X PRIZE • Wirefly X PRIZE Cup • NG – Lunar Lander Challenge • Future Prizes X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 2 Orteig Prize • Original ANSARI X PRIZE was largely inspired by the Orteig Prize, a $25K aviation prize offered in 1919 and won in 1927 by Charles Lindbergh – About $280K in current dollars • Charles Nungesser, René Fonck, Hubert Fauntleroy Julian, Francois Coli, … and Lindbergh? X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 3 Orteig Prize • 9 teams spent $400,000 (about $4.5 million today) – or 16 times the prize value • Within eight months of Lindbergh’s flight… – the number of airplanes in the U.S. quadrupled, – the number of pilots tripled – the number of individuals buying airline tickets increased 30-fold, from 5,700 to nearly 180,000. • Aviation today is a multi-trillion dollar industry and a vital component of the global economy X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 4 Other Noteworthy Prizes • Longitude Prize • Kremer Prize • DARPA Grand Challenges • $30M Super Efficient Refrigerator Prize • 100,000-Franc Soda Alkali Prize • Feynman nano-tech prizes – working electric motor 1/64 inch – written text at 1/25,000 scale X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 5 ANSARI X PRIZE • $10M prize for – Privately funded spacecraft – 100km – 3 people (or weight equivalent) – Repeated flights • 26 teams • 7 countries • $100M + spent X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 6 ANSARI X PRIZE • Technological advances • Regulatory reform • Legitimization • Hero Creation X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 7 Wirefly X PRIZE Cup X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 8 2005 Countdown to the Cup • 10,000+ people • Flights from XCOR, Armadillo • Test Firing by Starchaser • Static Displays, mock-ups, etc • Dominated regulatory talk at the COMSTAC meetings • Intense involvement from FAA Staff X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 9 2006 Wirefly X PRIZE Cup • Friday-Saturday, October 20-21 • Las Cruces International Airport, NM • International Personal Spaceflight Symposium (Tuesday- Wednesday) • Executive Summit (Thursday) • Education Day on Friday X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 10 2006 Wirefly X PRIZE Cup • Connect personally with the industry • Meet engineers, entrepreneurs, leaders, investors, competitors, and customers • See high powered rockets, static fires, fly-bys • Talks by astronauts X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 11 Elevator Games • Two NASA Centennial Challenges • Offered by the Spaceward Foundation, hosted by the Wirefly X PRIZE Cup • $200K Tether Competition • $200K Beam Power Competition X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 12 Northrop Grumman LLC • $2M in prizes provided by NASA • Sponsored by Northrop Grumman Corp • 4 registered teams this year • Money left on the table this year will be available at next year’s Cup X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 13 Prize Rules – NGLLC • Vertical Take-Off and Landing rocketry • 25kg payload • Two flights in 150 minutes—including preparation time • Level One – 90 second flight times • Level Two – 180 second flight times – Simulated Lunar Surface X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 14 Lunar Landings - NGLLC X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 15 Northrop Grumman LLC 50 45 40 s 35 eam T ed 30 est r e 25 t n I f 20 o er b 15 m u N 10 5 0 2/1/06 2/15/06 3/1/06 3/15/06 3/29/06 4/12/06 4/26/06 5/10/06 5/24/06 6/7/06 Date X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 16 Northrop Grumman LLC • Designed to be a multi-year prize; this year’s competition is the debut of the event • Many potential competitors attending this year to observe, recruit partners • Many regulatory hurdles cleared this year, lowering the barriers for next year • Prize announcement: May 5, 2006 – 168 days between announcement and competition X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 17 NGLLC Teams: Acuity • Aerospace development company based in Menlo Park, CA • Producer of UAVs and other experimental aircraft • First venture into rocketry X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 18 NGLLC Teams: Armadillo • Original ANSARI X PRIZE team • No paid employees • Two day a week labor • “Build it, test it, fly it” philosophy X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 19 NGLLC Teams: Masten • 6 full time employees • Moved from Mountainview, CA to Mojave, CA to better pursue this Challenge • Also offering $99 CanSat program • Working towards manned orbital vehicle X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 20 NGLLC Teams: Micro-Space • Original ANSARI X PRIZE Competitor • 4 employees • Based out of Denver, CO • Background in amateur rocketry • “Spartan” designs X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 21 NGLLC - Video X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 22 Archon X PRIZE for Genomics • $10M prize • Sequence 100 human genomes • 10 days or less • ≤1 error per 10,000 bases sequenced • Cover at least 98% of the genome • Recurring cost of ≤$10,000 per genome X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 23 Archon X PRIZE for Genomics • Support from both public and private teams from original Human Genome project • Holds the key to truly preventative medicine • Prize winning team will also sequence the “Genome 100” – Stephen Hawking, Burt Rutan, Larry Page, Anousheh Ansari, Paul Allen, Larry King… X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 24 Future Prizes – Where Next? • We conquered the Kármán line • Working on the Human Genome • Working on fuel efficiency and climate change • Turning our eyes back to space X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 25 Next Stop: the Moon? • Suborbital market has already been jumpstarted; and orbital tourism already has a track record • NASA has been charged with going back to the moon, and is beginning a strong program of lunar exploration • Is the moon a good goal for the next X PRIZE? X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 26 Lunar X PRIZE : BlastOff! • Entertainment and Media- driven business model • Missions sending multiple rovers to Apollo sites • Lunar Olympics with competitions between different national teams • Technology Demonstrations to create saleable legacy hardware X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 27 Lunar X PRIZE : BlastOff! • Raised and spent over $15M from 2000-2002 • Launch procured • Mission cost estimates of $50M for 1st and $20M for 2nd • Projected Revenues of $250M X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 28 Lunar X PRIZE : Other Proofs • LunaCorp – Planned 440-pound (200- Kg) rover, with night-time operation – Signed $1M sponsorship deal with RadioShack – Partnership with Carnegie Mellon University • Transorbital – Planned orbiter, with follow-on landers – Partnership with HP X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 29 Lunar X PRIZE • In Summer 2006, XPF conducted a study built around an industry survey of CEO level individuals from industry, academia, and government • General consensus a the Lunar X Prize would be worth its cost as a PR tool alone, on top of any engineering, science, or industry building benefits • Great interest and enthusiasm among potential competitors as well as potential financiers • NASA could play a key role both by legitimizing teams and by demonstrating a “with us, not against us” attitude towards private enterprise X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 30 Lunar X PRIZE : Feasibility When asked about a Lunar X PRIZE with a total prize purse of $20M Feasibility without NASA launch Feasibility with NASA launch support support Mission 1 All respondents assumed feasible with or without NASA launch support Mission 2 70 % of respondent assumed 90 % of respondent assumed such a such a mission is feasible without mission is feasible with NASA launch NASA launch support support Mission 3 70 % of respondent assumed 80% of respondent assumed such a such a mission is feasible without mission is feasible with NASA launch NASA launch support support Mission 1: Simple lander, survives for ~2 weeks, no location specified Mission 2: Rover returning video of an Apollo landing site Mission 3: Targeted lander carrying payload to South Pole X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 31 Lunar X PRIZE : Teams & Time When asked about a Lunar X PRIZE with a total prize purse of $20M # of Serious US- Likely mission victory # of Serious Likely mission victory based Teams, date, relative to US-based date, relative to with no launch announcement, without Teams, with announcement, with support launch support launch support launch support Mission 1 5 (σ =2.3) 3 years (σ =1) 7 (σ =2.5) 3.4 years (σ =1.8) Mission 2 3 (σ =2.6) 4 years (σ = 1.7) 4 (σ =3.1) 3.7 years (σ =2) Mission 3 2 (σ =2) 3.7 years (σ = 1.2) 3 (σ =2.4) 4.5 years (σ =2.1) Mission 1: Simple lander, survives for ~2 weeks, no location specified Mission 2: Rover returning video of an Apollo landing site Mission 3: Targeted lander carrying payload to South Pole X PRIZE Foundation NIAC Annual Meeting – October 17, 2006 32
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