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Home , Education in Texas

The Future of in

Woody L. Hunt Chairman Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee Let’s talk about higher education in Texas and the educational competitiveness of the Texas work force • Where do we stand in terms of the educational attainment of our workforce?

• Why is it so important to our state?

• What can we do to “raise the bar”?

CLOSING THE GAPS ANNUAL DEGREE COMPLETION MORE THAN DOUBLED FROM 2000 to 2014

THAT GOAL WAS IN 2000, ESTABLISHED A GOAL OF

*THE GOAL WAS LATER INCREASED TO 210,000 ACHIEVED 163,000 TO REFLECT INCREASE IN POPULATION IN 2011 ANNUAL POSTSECONDARY CREDENTIALS BY 2015 246,499 IN 2014

2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 2014 2015

ACTUALS 116,235 132,478 155,527 188,927 221,538 246,499 Texas’ healthy business environment has become a major contributor to our educational attainment goals

4 TEXAS HAS BENEFITED FROM IMPORTING COLLEGE-EDUCATED RESIDENTS

NET ANNUAL MIGRATION BY DEGREE LEVEL - 22-64 YEAR OLDS AVERAGE FROM 2011 - 2013

60000 53,476 50000 NET ANNUAL IMPORTS 40000 95,818 WITH POSTSECONDARY 30000 28,880 ATTAINMENT

20000 13,462 10000 TOTAL NET ANNUAL IMPORTS 0 201,530 Associates Bachelor's Graduate

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files

5 Closing the Gaps by 2015’S goals seemed bold at the time and helped bring Texas on par with comparable states. International data on attainment levels, however, suggests that the bar was set too low. Far too low.

6 TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND Percent of adults with an associate degree or higher.

Source: Education at a Glance 2014, OECD Indicators and American Communities Survey Public Use Microdata Sample 2013

7 TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND

TEXANS 55-64 YEARS OLD

RANK TEXANS 25-34 YEARS OLD RANK th TH IN THE5 WORLD 25 IN THE WORLD

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ASSOCIATE OR HIGHER ASSOCIATE OR HIGHER

Texas attainment levels have stayed relatively steady, but in a global economy, staying steady = falling behind

8 TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND

COMPARING TEXAS WITH NATIONS AND OTHER STATES PERCENTAGE OF YOUNG ADULT DEGREE ATTAINMENT - (AGES 25- 34)

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2014 (for 2012); U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File

9 OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE

Our future workforce will demand even more postsecondary trained and educated workers.

IN 1973 ONLY 28% BY 2020 65% OF ALL U.S. JOBS REQUIRED OF ALL NEW JOBS WILL REQUIRE POSTSECONDARY POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION/SKILLS EDUCATION/SKILLS

Currently, 35% of Texans aged 25-34 have an associate degree or higher. 10 11 SIGNIFICANT WORK REMAINS TO ENSURE TEXAS SUSTAINS PROGRESS

• Texas is doing better but falling farther behind

• It is an urgent matter that Texas increase the knowledge and skills of its workforce to globally competitive standards

• Failure to do so will have serious economic consequences for both the state and its citizens

1111 SIGNIFICANT WORK REMAINS TO ENSURE TEXAS SUSTAINS PROGRESS

• We must be much more aggressive in our expectations and our policies – incrementalism is not a solution o Benchmark against global best performance o Be much more strategic in • Increasing capacity to deliver instruction • Investing public resources

• As largest donor and regulator, the state’s role is central in laying out educational goals for our state workforce and our public institutions

• In setting goals, the state must prioritize completion

1212 The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2012)

55 High College Attainment, Low Personal Income High College Attainment, High Personal Income Degrees MA

48 COMN CT VT NH NJ VA NYMD ND College RI HI ILNE WA UT IA 41 WIKS MT OR US SDPA CA NC ME DE

(2012) FL GA MI AK WY SC AZ MOOH ID NM 34 IN AL TN OK TX State New Economy Index 2012 MS KY Top Tier NV AR LA Middle Tier Bottom Tier 27 WV Percent of Adults 25 to 64 of Adults 25 withto Percent

Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income 20 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 Personal Income per Capita (2013)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; ITIF 2012 New Economy Index

13 Texas Personal Income per Capita as a Percent of the U.S. Average (1980-2012)

110

100 97.8 97.8 96.4 95.0 94.0 93.6 94.5 90.6 89.2 90

80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

14 Texas must sustain educational progress. Barrier #1: Demographics

15 PERCENT OF 0-24 YEAR-OLDS IN U.S. WHO ARE BLACK OR HISPANIC (2013)

70 59.8 60 50 40 37.3 30 20

10 4.5 0 Utah Texas Maine Nation Florida Virginia Kansas Georgia Missouri Vermont Alabama Kentucky California New York Minnesota Mississippi New West Virginia North Rhode Pennsylvania North New

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2013 State Population Estimates

16 TEXAS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE/ETHNICITY (TOTAL AND K-12)

Total Population 2013 Public Elementary and Secondary Students 2012-13 60% 51.3% 50% 43.9% 38.8% 40% 30.0% 30% 20% 11.5% 12.7% 10% 5.8% 6.0% 0% White Hispanic Black Other

Source: Texas Data Center; U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Education Statistics

17 DIFFERENCE IN COLLEGE ATTAINMENT BETWEEN WHITES AND MINORITIES IN U.S.

Underrepresented Whites Black Hispanic Minorities (Black, Hispanic, American Indian, Alaska Native)

Attainment Attainment Difference Attainment Difference Attainment Difference

Texas 45.6% 30.0% 15.6% 18.0% 27.6% 21.1% 24.5

U.S. 44.5% 28.1% 16.4% 20.3% 24.2% 23.7% 20.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-13 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

18 ATTAINMENT REMAINS LOW

PERCENTAGE OF 2004 8TH GRADERS WHO EARNED POSTSECONDARY CREDENTIAL WITHIN 6 YEARS OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION

20.3% STATEWIDE

13.2% 12.5% 28.7% 10.4% ECONOMICALLY HISPANICS AFRICAN AM. WHITE DISADVANTAGED

Despite more postsecondary completions, attainment among Hispanics, African Americans, and poor students remains low 19 SOURCE: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 7 RACE/ETHNICITY DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED WORKING AGE TEXAS POPULATION - 25 TO 34 YEAR OLDS 2015 2030

African African American Other American Other 12% 6% 11% 8%

Hispanic 43% Hispanic 52% White White 29% 39%

25 to 34 Year Olds 2015 2030 Hispanic 1,644,627 2,323,615 41% White 1,463,893 1,314,723 -10% African American 445,875 496,710 11% Other 245,307 349,304 42% Total 3,799,702 4,484,352 18%

20 PROJECTED CHANGE IN TEXAS POPULATION BY AGE AND RACE/ETHNICITY, 2010-2030

White African American Hispanic / Latino

2,000,000 1,445,090 1,433,719

1,291,243

1,750,000 1,191,767

1,062,750

1,500,000

1,250,000

1,000,000 512,100

750,000 356,570

182,325 157,802

500,000

52,947

22,506

250,000

-

(19,448)

(96,448) (520,195)

(250,000) (202,298)

(500,000)

(750,000) Age 0-17 Age 18-24 Age 25-44 Age 25-64 Age 65+

Source: Texas State Data Center, Office of the State Demographer

21 Texas must sustain educational progress. Barrier #2: Economics

22 INCOME PERCENT OF TEXAS FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN 17 AND YOUNGER BY INCOME QUARTILE, 2012

White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic 45 42 42.3 40 35.4 35 29.1

30 27.9 24.1 25 21.4 19.4 20

Percent 20 16.1 15 12.5 9.8 10 5 0 Lowest Second Third Highest

Source: US Census Bureau: American Community Survey

23 THE CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION

24 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT WILL DROP IF CURRENT PROGRESS DOES NOT ACCELERATE

2030 PROJECTED CHANGE IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF POPULATION, AGES 25-64 SAME ATTAINMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY ASSUMED

30 2012 2030

24.7 25.1 25 23.4 22.4 21.0 20 18.5 17.4 16.9

15

8.9 10 8.0 7.1 6.6

5

0 Less than High School High School or GED Some College, No Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Degree Professional Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey and 2010-12 American Community Survey Three-Year PUMS.

25 PERSONAL INCOME WILL DROP IF EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT RATES DO NOT IMPROVE

PROJECTED CHANGE IN PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA BY 25 TO 64 WITH SAME ATTAINMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY

$40,066 $37,147

2012 2030

Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 ACS and 2010-12 ACS Three-Year PUMS.

26 WITHOUT IMPROVEMENTS, STATE REVENUES WILL DECLINE AND EXPENDITURES WILL INCREASE

CHANGES AS A RESULT OF NOT IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AMONG BLACK AND HISPANICS - YEAR 2030 ESTIMATES

1,000,000,000

575,664,605 500,000,000 254,512,050

0

-500,000,000

-690,727,473 -1,000,000,000

-1,500,000,000 -1,335,450,668 State Income Tax Sales Tax Revenues Property Tax Revenues Medicaid Expenditures Corrections Expenditures Revenues

Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2009 American Community Survey (PUMS), 2008-10 Current Population Survey (PUMS)

27 GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE: THE HISTORY OF EL PASO

28 FAMILY INCOME

MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT 1950 TO 2012, EL PASO RELATIVE TO TEXAS

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Median Family Income Adults with High School Diploma Adults with 4+ Years of College

Sources: Christine Thurlow Brenner (2001), Educational Trends and Income in El Paso: A Longitudinal Perspective, of Texas at El Paso, Institute for Policy and Economic Development. 2008, 2009 American Community Survey.

29 EL PASO EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

EL PASO EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE (25-64 YEARS) ASSOCIATES DEGREE AND HIGHER (%)

70 64.5 60.6 60 57.7

48.5 50 46.0 45.1 40.8 40.0 40 35.2 30.8 28.7 30.2 30 25.8 20.9 18.4 20

10

0 White Black Asian Hispanic Total

El Paso County Texas U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012, 2013, and 2014 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Samples.

30 TEXAS MUST ADDRESS CHALLENGES TO MAINTAIN A GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE WORKFORCE

• Raise education attainment levels to meet or exceed our competitors

• Shrink disparities across race and ethnic groups

• Get more students into high-demand technical fields

• Improve skills of adult population by bringing them back into the education system

13

32 THESE CHALLENGES ARE BEING ADDRESSED BY THE TEXAS HIGHER EDUCATION COORDINATING BOARD’S NEW STRATEGIC PLAN:

By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25-34 33 will have a certificate or degree. 60x30TX Builds on Past Achievements 60x30TX Includes Four Student-Centered Goals 60x30 By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25-34 will have a postsecondary credential or degree.

Achieving the 60x30 goal is critical for Texas to remain globally competitive and for its people and communities to prosper. COMPLETION Goal: By 2030, at least 550,000 students in that year will complete a certificate, associate, bachelor’s, or master’s from an institution of higher education in Texas.

If reached, Texas will award a total of 6.4 million certificates or degrees during the 15 years of this plan. MARKETABLE SKILLS Goal: By 2030, all graduates from Texas public institutions of higher education will have completed programs with identified marketable skills.

What is a marketable skill? Students exit from any degree program with a variety of skills. Marketable skills include interpersonal, cognitive, and applied skill areas, are valued by employers, and are primary or complementary to a major.

STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wages for graduates of Texas public institutions. K-12 Initiatives

• Cooperation/collaboration between K-12 and higher education • College/career readiness standards • Teach preparation and professional development • Local and statewide faculty collaborations Transitions

Source: THECB, TEA and NSC, 12/31/2014. Texas Public Higher Education Almanac 2015. Workforce Need Projections

Texas’ Economic Future Requires More Postsecondary Trained/Educated Workers

- In 1973, 28% of all U.S. jobs required postsecondary education/skills.

- By 2020, 65% of all new jobs will require this level of education.

- Currently, 35% of Texans aged 25-34 have an associate degree or higher.

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce.