The Future of Higher Education in Texas
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The Future of Higher Education in Texas Woody L. Hunt Chairman Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee Let’s talk about higher education in Texas and the educational competitiveness of the Texas work force • Where do we stand in terms of the educational attainment of our workforce? • Why is it so important to our state? • What can we do to “raise the bar”? CLOSING THE GAPS ANNUAL DEGREE COMPLETION MORE THAN DOUBLED FROM 2000 to 2014 THAT GOAL WAS IN 2000, ESTABLISHED A GOAL OF *THE GOAL WAS LATER INCREASED TO 210,000 ACHIEVED 163,000 TO REFLECT INCREASE IN POPULATION IN 2011 ANNUAL POSTSECONDARY CREDENTIALS BY 2015 246,499 IN 2014 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 2014 2015 ACTUALS 116,235 132,478 155,527 188,927 221,538 246,499 Texas’ healthy business environment has become a major contributor to our educational attainment goals 4 TEXAS HAS BENEFITED FROM IMPORTING COLLEGE-EDUCATED RESIDENTS NET ANNUAL MIGRATION BY DEGREE LEVEL - 22-64 YEAR OLDS AVERAGE FROM 2011 - 2013 60000 53,476 50000 NET ANNUAL IMPORTS 40000 95,818 WITH POSTSECONDARY 30000 28,880 ATTAINMENT 20000 13,462 10000 TOTAL NET ANNUAL IMPORTS 0 201,530 Associates Bachelor's Graduate Source: U.S. Census Bureau; ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files 5 Closing the Gaps by 2015’S goals seemed bold at the time and helped bring Texas on par with comparable states. International data on attainment levels, however, suggests that the bar was set too low. Far too low. 6 TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND Percent of adults with an associate degree or higher. Source: Education at a Glance 2014, OECD Indicators and American Communities Survey Public Use Microdata Sample 2013 7 TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND TEXANS 55-64 YEARS OLD RANK TEXANS 25-34 YEARS OLD RANK th TH IN THE5 WORLD 25 IN THE WORLD EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ASSOCIATE OR HIGHER ASSOCIATE OR HIGHER Texas attainment levels have stayed relatively steady, but in a global economy, staying steady = falling behind 8 TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND COMPARING TEXAS WITH NATIONS AND OTHER STATES PERCENTAGE OF YOUNG ADULT DEGREE ATTAINMENT - (AGES 25- 34) Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2014 (for 2012); U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File 9 OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE Our future workforce will demand even more postsecondary trained and educated workers. IN 1973 ONLY 28% BY 2020 65% OF ALL U.S. JOBS REQUIRED OF ALL NEW JOBS WILL REQUIRE POSTSECONDARY POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION/SKILLS EDUCATION/SKILLS Currently, 35% of Texans aged 25-34 have an associate degree or higher. 10 11 SIGNIFICANT WORK REMAINS TO ENSURE TEXAS SUSTAINS PROGRESS • Texas is doing better but falling farther behind • It is an urgent matter that Texas increase the knowledge and skills of its workforce to globally competitive standards • Failure to do so will have serious economic consequences for both the state and its citizens 1111 SIGNIFICANT WORK REMAINS TO ENSURE TEXAS SUSTAINS PROGRESS • We must be much more aggressive in our expectations and our policies – incrementalism is not a solution o Benchmark against global best performance o Be much more strategic in • Increasing capacity to deliver instruction • Investing public resources • As largest donor and regulator, the state’s role is central in laying out educational goals for our state workforce and our public institutions • In setting goals, the state must prioritize completion 1212 The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2012) 55 High College Attainment, Low Personal Income High College Attainment, High Personal Income Degrees MA 48 COMN CT VT NH NJ VA NYMD ND College RI HI ILNE WA UT IA 41 WIKS MT OR US SDPA CA NC ME DE (2012) FL GA MI AK WY SC AZ MOOH ID NM 34 IN AL TN OK TX State New Economy Index 2012 MS KY Top Tier NV AR LA Middle Tier Bottom Tier 27 WV Percent of Adults 25 to 64 of Adults 25 withto Percent Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income 20 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 Personal Income per Capita (2013) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; ITIF 2012 New Economy Index 13 Texas Personal Income per Capita as a Percent of the U.S. Average (1980-2012) 110 100 97.8 97.8 96.4 95.0 94.0 93.6 94.5 90.6 89.2 90 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 14 Texas must sustain educational progress. Barrier #1: Demographics 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 59.8 WHO ARE BLACK OR HISPANIC (2013) ARE BLACK ORHISPANIC WHO PERCENT OF 0 PERCENT Texas New Mexico California Florida Nevada Mississippi Georgia Arizona Maryland Louisiana South Carolina New York Illinois New Jersey Delaware Source: U.S.Census Bureau 2013 State Population Estimates - North Carolina 37.3 Nation 24 YEAR Alabama Colorado Virginia Connecticut Arkansas Tennessee Rhode Island Michigan - Massachusetts OLDSIN U.S. Kansas Washington Pennsylvania Oklahoma Oregon Nebraska Indiana Ohio Missouri Wisconsin Hawaii Idaho Utah Minnesota Wyoming Kentucky Iowa Alaska South Dakota North Dakota New Hampshire West Virginia Montana Maine 4.5 Vermont 16 TEXAS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE/ETHNICITY (TOTAL AND K-12) Total Population 2013 Public Elementary and Secondary Students 2012-13 60% 51.3% 50% 43.9% 38.8% 40% 30.0% 30% 20% 11.5% 12.7% 10% 5.8% 6.0% 0% White Hispanic Black Other Source: Texas Data Center; U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Education Statistics 17 DIFFERENCE IN COLLEGE ATTAINMENT BETWEEN WHITES AND MINORITIES IN U.S. Underrepresented Whites Black Hispanic Minorities (Black, Hispanic, American Indian, Alaska Native) Attainment Attainment Difference Attainment Difference Attainment Difference Texas 45.6% 30.0% 15.6% 18.0% 27.6% 21.1% 24.5 U.S. 44.5% 28.1% 16.4% 20.3% 24.2% 23.7% 20.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-13 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File 18 ATTAINMENT REMAINS LOW PERCENTAGE OF 2004 8TH GRADERS WHO EARNED POSTSECONDARY CREDENTIAL WITHIN 6 YEARS OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION 20.3% STATEWIDE 13.2% 12.5% 28.7% 10.4% ECONOMICALLY HISPANICS AFRICAN AM. WHITE DISADVANTAGED Despite more postsecondary completions, attainment among Hispanics, African Americans, and poor students remains low 19 SOURCE: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 7 RACE/ETHNICITY DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED WORKING AGE TEXAS POPULATION - 25 TO 34 YEAR OLDS 2015 2030 African African American Other American Other 12% 6% 11% 8% Hispanic 43% Hispanic 52% White White 29% 39% 25 to 34 Year Olds 2015 2030 Hispanic 1,644,627 2,323,615 41% White 1,463,893 1,314,723 -10% African American 445,875 496,710 11% Other 245,307 349,304 42% Total 3,799,702 4,484,352 18% 20 21 1,062,750 356,570 Age 65+ 1,291,243 1,433,719 (520,195) 182,325 Age 25-64 2030 - 1,445,090 Hispanic / Latino 157,802 Age 25-44 (202,298) IN TEXAS POPULATION African American 512,100 22,506 White Age 18-24 (96,448) Source: Texas State Data Center, Officeof the State Demographer 1,191,767 52,947 BY AGE AND RACE/ETHNICITY, 2010 AGE AND BY RACE/ETHNICITY, Age 0-17 (19,448) - 750,000 500,000 250,000 (250,000) (500,000) (750,000) 2,000,000 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000,000 PROJECTED CHANGE Texas must sustain educational progress. Barrier #2: Economics 22 INCOME PERCENT OF TEXAS FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN 17 AND YOUNGER BY INCOME QUARTILE, 2012 White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic 45 42 42.3 40 35.4 35 29.1 30 27.9 24.1 25 21.4 19.4 20 Percent 20 16.1 15 12.5 9.8 10 5 0 Lowest Second Third Highest Source: US Census Bureau: American Community Survey 23 THE CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION 24 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT WILL DROP IF CURRENT PROGRESS DOES NOT ACCELERATE 2030 PROJECTED CHANGE IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF POPULATION, AGES 25-64 SAME ATTAINMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY ASSUMED 30 2012 2030 24.7 25.1 25 23.4 22.4 21.0 20 18.5 17.4 16.9 15 8.9 10 8.0 7.1 6.6 5 0 Less than High School High School or GED Some College, No Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Degree Professional Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey and 2010-12 American Community Survey Three-Year PUMS. 25 PERSONAL INCOME WILL DROP IF EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT RATES DO NOT IMPROVE PROJECTED CHANGE IN PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA BY 25 TO 64 WITH SAME ATTAINMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY $40,066 $37,147 2012 2030 Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 ACS and 2010-12 ACS Three-Year PUMS. 26 WITHOUT IMPROVEMENTS, STATE REVENUES WILL DECLINE AND EXPENDITURES WILL INCREASE CHANGES AS A RESULT OF NOT IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AMONG BLACK AND HISPANICS - YEAR 2030 ESTIMATES 1,000,000,000 575,664,605 500,000,000 254,512,050 0 -500,000,000 -690,727,473 -1,000,000,000 -1,500,000,000 -1,335,450,668 State Income Tax Sales Tax Revenues Property Tax Revenues Medicaid Expenditures Corrections Expenditures Revenues Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2009 American Community Survey (PUMS), 2008-10 Current Population Survey (PUMS) 27 GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE: THE HISTORY OF EL PASO 28 FAMILY INCOME MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT 1950 TO 2012, EL PASO RELATIVE TO TEXAS 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Median Family Income Adults with High School Diploma Adults with 4+ Years of College Sources: Christine Thurlow Brenner (2001), Educational Trends and Income in El Paso: A Longitudinal Perspective, University of Texas at El Paso, Institute for Policy and Economic Development.