War in Resource-Rich Northern Mozambique – Six Scenarios
CMI INSIGHT 2020:02 1 NUMBER 2 CMI INSIGHT MAY 2020 Photo: F Mira on Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0) War in resource-rich northern Mozambique – Six scenarios AUTHOR Since the October 2017 attacks by alleged Islamist insurgents, Francisco Almeida commonly referred to as Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama and locally know as 1 dos Santos Al Shabab, on Mocimboa da Praia, it has not been entirely clear who the attackers were, what their strategic objectives are and on whose domestic and international support they rely. This paper, grounded in a historical understanding of conflict in northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Province, seeks to identify possible stakeholders and scenarios in what we no longer see as an insurgency, but a war. 2 CMI INSIGHT 2020:02 Introduction horizon, at least in terms of upstream and downstream The attacks have been happening at a critical juncture investment and revenue generation, from 2024 onwards in Mozambique’s history. In August 2019, a peace (EIU, 2019). agreement – the third – between the Government True to the saying ‘when it rains it pours’, this silver and the Renamo opposition was signed by President lining may vanish and turn out to be a mirage, for two Filipe Nyusi and the Renamo leader Osufo Momade. interconnected reasons. The first is the tumbling of global Complementing a decentralization reform through energy prices, partly due to the increase of production a change in the Constitution, with a focus on of oil by both Russia and Saudi Arabia, causing an provincial governments, the agreement focusses on expected decline of demand, refinery output, available the demobilisation, disarmament, and reintegration storage, and return to investment expectations in energy (DDR) of more than 5,000 Renamo soldiers – an exploration.
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