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Algeria Economic Monitor

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Algeria Economic Monitor ALGERIA ECONOMIC Public Disclosure Authorized MONITOR Navigating the COVID-19 Pandemic, Engaging Structural Reforms Public Disclosure Authorized Fall 2020 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Middle East and North Africa Region Algeria Economic Monitor Navigating the COVID-19 Pandemic, Engaging Structural Reforms Fall 2020 ALGÉRIE MONITEUR ÉCONOMIQUE Middle East and North Africa Region Traverser la pandémie de COVID-19, engager les réformes structurelles Automne 2020 Middle East and North Africa Region TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Acronyms . v Acknowledgements . .vii Executive Summary ......................................................ix Résumé analytique . xi xiii .......................................................الملخص التنفيذي Chapter 1: Developments in 2019............................................. 1 Growth and Labor Market . 1 Public Finances . .3 Monetary and Banking Developments . 5 External Accounts . 6 Chapter 2: Navigating the COVID-19 Pandemic . 9 Introduction . 9 Algeria’s Twin Shocks . 10 Economic and Employment Losses . 11 External Sector . 14 Public Finance . .15 Banking and Liquidity . 15 Conclusion ............................................................17 Annex 1: Table of Economic Indicators . .19 Bibliography...........................................................21 iii List of Figures Figure 1 GDP Growth Decelerated for a Fifth Consecutive Year… . .2 Figure 2 …Dragged by a Sharp Decline in Oil Production . .2 Figure 3 Consumption and Investment Growth Slowed Down . 2 Figure 4 …with the Services Sector Supporting Growth . .2 Figure 5 The Private Sector Remained the Main Contributor to Non-hydrocarbon Actvity… . 3 Figure 6 …although the Public Sector Created More Jobs . 3 Figure 7 Lower BdA Dividends Subtracted from the Budget… . .4 Figure 8 …while Capital Spending Increased Markedly . .4 Figure 9 In the Past Three Years, Financing Needs Have Been Met by Monetary Financing… . .5 Figure 10 …Consequently, Public Debt is Now Mostly Held by the BdA . 5 Figure 11 Liquidity Fell Following the Conclusion of Monetary Financing…… . .6 Figure 12 …and Most New Credit Was Channeled to SOEs . 6 Figure 13 In 2019, inflation moderated as food prices stagnated . 6 Figure 14 . while the Real Effective Exchange Rate Slightly Appreciated . .6 Figure 15 The Import Compression Effort Continued… . 7 Figure 16 …Led by a Sharp Decline in the Value of Equipment Imports . 7 Figure 17 Despite a Swift Policy Response, a Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections Is Underway . 11 Figure 18 Hydrocarbon Revenues Are Being Hit by the Simultaneous Decline in Prices and in Production Quotas . 11 Figure 19 Investment and Consumption Both Declined in the First Quarter… . 12 Figure 20 …while Public Industrial Production Data Suggest a Sharper Contraction in the Second Quarter . 12 Figure 21 International Trade Collapsed in 2020… . 15 Figure 22 …while the Authorities Allowed the Dinar to Depreciate . .15 Figure 23 Currency in Circulation Increased as Bank Liquidity Declined . .16 Figure 24 Inflationary Pressures Have Eased with Non-food Inflation Leading the Advances . 16 iv ALGERIA ECONOMIC MONITOR: NAVIGATING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, ENGAGING STRUCTURAL REFORMS LIST OF ACRONYMS AGEA Association Générale des Entrepreneurs GATMA Groupe Algérien de Transport Maritime Algériens GDP Gross Domestic Product ANE Agence Nationale de l’Emploi IEA International Energy Agency BADR Banque d’Agriculture et du kbpd Thousands of barrels per day Développement Rural mbpd Millions of barrels per day BdA Banque d’Algérie MENA Middle East and North Africa Region BDL Banque de Développement Local mtep Million-ton equivalent of petroleum BEA Banque Extérieure d’Algérie NEER Nominal Effective Exchange Rate CNAS Caisse Nationale des Assurances NPL Non-Performing Loans Sociales NSA Nomenclature des Secteurs d’Activité CNR Caisse Nationale des Retraites ONS Office National des Statistiques CNY Chinese Yuan OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CPA Crédit Populaire d’Algérie Countries CPI Consumer Price Index PAJE Programme d’Appui Jeunesse Emploi DAPS Droits additionnels provisoires de PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index sauvegarde ppts Percentage points DZD Algerian dinar REER Real Effective Exchange Rate EMA Entreprise Métro d’Alger SMEs Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises ETUSA Entreprise de Transport Urbain et SNTF Société Nationale des Transports Suburbain d’Alger Ferroviaires EUR Euro SOEs State-Owned Enterprises FDI Foreign Direct Investment USD U .S . dollar FNI Fond National d’Investissement Y/Y Year-over-year FRR Fond de Régulation des Recettes v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS his Algeria Economic Monitor provides Representative), and Gabriel Sensebrenner an update on key recent economic (Program Leader) for invaluable comments during T developments and policies . It places them the preparation and review of this report . They are in a longer-term and global context, and assesses particularly grateful to the Ministry of Finance of the implications these developments and changes Algeria, for providing comments on the report before in policies have on the outlook for Algeria . This its publication . They give special thanks to Muna Abed Monitor’s coverage ranges from the macro-economy Salim (Senior Program Assistant, MTI) and Isabelle to financial markets to indicators of human welfare Poupaert (Senior External Affairs Assistant) for their and development . It is intended for a wide audience, support during the preparation of this report, and to including policy makers, business leaders, financial Amina Iraqi (Consultant, MTI) for the Arabic translation market participants, and the community of analysts of the executive summary . and professionals engaged in Algeria . The cut-off The findings, interpretations, and conclusions date for data is December 17, 2020 . expressed in this Monitor are those of World Bank The Algeria Economic Monitor is a product of staff and do not necessarily reflect the views of the the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) team in Executive Board of The World Bank or the governments the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment (MTI) they represent . For information about the World Bank Global practice in the World Bank Group . The report and its activities in Algeria, including e-copies of this was led by Cyril Desponts (Economist, MTI) and publication, please visit https://www .worldbank .org/ Shahrzad Mobasher Fard (Consultant, MTI) under en/country/algeria . the general guidance of Eric Le Borgne (Practice For questions and comments on the content Manager) . of this publication, please contact Cyril Desponts The authors are grateful to Jesko Hentschel (cdesponts@worldbank .org) and Eric Le Borgne (Country Director), Emmanuel Cuvillier (Resident (eleborgne@worldbank .org) . vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY his report presents an overview of Algeria’s 38 .9 percent of GDP at end-2018 to 44 .9 percent recent macroeconomic developments and of of GDP at end-2019 . The current account deficit T its short-term economic outlook . The report remained significant but relatively unchanged in 2019, is divided into two chapters . Chapter 1 presents the with the fall in hydrocarbon exports being largely country’s macroeconomic developments in 2019, offset by a managed fall in goods imports (to preserve which establishes the context for the unprecendented foreign exchange reserves) and the reduction in the developments of 2020 related to the COVID-19 services trade deficit . The Real Effective Exchange pandemic . Chapter 2 details the impact of the Rate (REER) slighty appreciated, leading to a loss COVID-19 pandemic and concurrent crash in oil of international competitiveness . Banking liquidity prices on various dimensions of Algeria’s economic fell in 2019 amid the conclusion of the monetary fabric . Finally, the conclusion presents the short-term financing program in March 2019, the financing of the outlook for the Algerian economy . 2019 budget deficit, and the gradual rise in the bank In 2019, Algeria’s economic growth rate reserve requirement ratio to 10 percent in the summer decelerated for a fifth consecutive year amid the of 2019 . protracted social mobilization and political transition, Although second quarter national accounts which weakened consumer and business confidence data for 2020 are yet to be published, the economic and spending . At the sectoral level, the structural momentum heading into Q2/2020 remained feeble, decline of the hydrocarbon industry persisted, with with economic activity contracting by 3 .9 percent the industry declining by 4 .9 percent, while the non- Y/Y in Q1/2020 . Data on public industrial production hydrocarbon segment rose by a modest 2 .4 percent in Q2/2020 point to a steepening of the overall in real terms . The unemployment rate remained contraction recorded in Q1/2020 following the unchanged at 11 .4 percent in 2019, with 232,000 introduction of COVID-19-related containment jobs created between April 2018 and May 2019 . The measures . Economic losses among SOEs have national Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained well been substantial, particularly in the energy and contained, rising by 2 .3 percent in 2019, down from transport sectors . While data on economic losses for 3 .5 percent in 2018 . Algeria’s overall fiscal balance the private sector are not available, several surveys worsened from –6 .8 percent of GDP in 2018 to reveal that private businesses saw their activities –9 .6 percent of GDP in 2019 as a result of the fall severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with in hydrocarbon revenues
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