Construction Dispute Mitigation: Quantitative and Qualitative Analytic Approach with a Focus on Bidding, Out-Of-Sequence Work, and Contract Analysis
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 5-2018 Construction Dispute Mitigation: Quantitative and Qualitative Analytic Approach with a Focus on Bidding, Out-of-Sequence Work, and Contract Analysis Ibrahim Salah Abotaleb University of Tennessee, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss Recommended Citation Abotaleb, Ibrahim Salah, "Construction Dispute Mitigation: Quantitative and Qualitative Analytic Approach with a Focus on Bidding, Out-of-Sequence Work, and Contract Analysis. " PhD diss., University of Tennessee, 2018. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/4903 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by Ibrahim Salah Abotaleb entitled "Construction Dispute Mitigation: Quantitative and Qualitative Analytic Approach with a Focus on Bidding, Out- of-Sequence Work, and Contract Analysis." I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Civil Engineering. Islam H. El-adaway, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Shuai Li, Charles B. Sims, Timothy J. Truster Accepted for the Council: Dixie L. Thompson Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) Construction Dispute Mitigation: Quantitative and Qualitative Analytic Approach with a Focus on Bidding, Out-of-Sequence Work, and Contract Analysis A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Ibrahim Salah Eldin Abotaleb May 2018 Copyright © 2018 by Ibrahim Salah Eldin Abotaleb All rights reserved. ii DEDICATION I dedicate this work to my parents, my sister Nadia, and my fiancée and future wife Dina. Their love, patience, encouragement, and understanding always drive me forward and keep me going. I would also like to dedicate this work to my late brother, Mohamed. May your memory and love always be in my heart. Furthermore, I dedicate this work to my professors and mentors throughout my entire educational journey. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would first like to thank God, without whom nothing is possible. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my academic advisor Dr. Islam El-adaway – Associate Professor of Civil Engineering and the Construction Engineering and Management Program Coordinator – for his full support, mentorship, understanding, ethics, flexibility, and encouragement throughout my PhD. I cannot even count the things he taught me, either academically, or on the personal level. He spared no time or effort in equipping me with the needed tools to become an excellent and ethical academician. I am also thankful for his flexibility in accommodating my schedule during my mother’s medical visits to the US. I will always be indebted to him as an advisor. I will also be always respecting and loving him as a big brother. I would also like to express my appreciation to the dissertation committee for their valuable advice and guidance; Dr. Timothy Truster, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Dr. Shuai Li, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering; and Dr. Charles Sims, Assistant Professor of Economics and Faculty Fellow at the Baker Center. I would like to thank my senior colleague at the University of Tennessee, Dr. Mohamed Saeid, who is now an Assistant Professor at the Arab Academy for Science and Technology in Egypt, for his hospitality and intellectual support during my stay in Knoxville. I would also like to thank Seif Eteifa for his help in many teaching and research aspects during my PhD work. Many thanks to my very dear friend Mohamed Bahgat, who is like a brother to me, for his help in collecting and organizing comprehensive data that played a great role in one of the major parts of my PhD dissertation. Finally, I am always thankful to Dr. Mohamed Nagib Abou-Zeid, Professor of Construction and Chairman of the University Senate at the American University in Cairo, for his continuous support and mentorship throughout my entire graduate journey. iv ABSTRACT The complexity of today’s construction projects deems conflicts and disputes unavoidable. The mere presence of disputes leads to productivity losses, schedule overruns, cost overruns, and quality decline. Moreover, failure to resolve disputes in a quick manner ripples these impacts and prevents successful completion of projects. Accordingly, preventing disputes prior to taking place is always better than resolving them after the fact. There are several factors that cause disputes. However, this dissertation focuses on those related to bidding, out-of-sequence (OOS) work, and contract administration of owner’s obligations, due to the significant knowledge gaps that were identified in their research streams. The goal of this research is to cover the identified knowledge gaps by providing various effective quantitative and qualitative means of dispute mitigation at the different stages of the project’s lifecycle. To this end, the research has four main objectives; each corresponding to one of the identified major knowledge gaps. The objectives are: (1) develop an advanced model for construction bid price estimation that is able to draw sound statistical inferences even in cases of data incompleteness and dynamic behaviors of competitors; (2) present contract administration guidelines for utilizing employer’s obligations clauses under the most widely used national and international standard forms of design-build contracts; (3) identify the causes and early warning signs of OOS work and their characteristics, as well as the best practices to avoid and mitigate its impacts, and (4) develop an advanced systematic model for analyzing the dynamics of OOS. The objectives were achieved through multiple analytical quantitative and qualitative methods; utilizing Bayesian statistics, decision theory, contractual examinations, surveys and meetings, statistical analysis, decision support systems, and system dynamics simulation. The research has various intellectual merits as it tackles important research areas that have not been explored before and improves areas which needed improvement. The research also has practical merits as it provides project stakeholders with models and tools that are used in multiple stages of the project cycle to mitigate disputes. The intellectual and practical outcomes of this research will partake in further understanding construction projects, minimizing disputes at different stages, and promoting healthier contracting environments. v TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Problem Statement .................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Research Goal, Objectives, Methodologies, and Direct Outcomes ........................ 4 1.4 Research Plan .......................................................................................................... 5 1.5 Research Benefits.................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER 2: DECISION-THEORETIC BIDDING MODEL IN A BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Objective ............................................................................................................... 13 2.3 Background on the Current Methods of Approaching Construction Bidding ...... 13 2.4 Background on the Used Statistical Concepts ...................................................... 19 2.5 Model Development.............................................................................................. 23 2.6 Case Studies .......................................................................................................... 35 2.7 Discussion ............................................................................................................. 45 2.8 Outcomes and How They Relate to Dispute Mitigation ....................................... 47 2.9 Recommendations for Future Work (Further Development and Validation) ....... 48 2.10 Related Appendices ........................................................................................... 49 CHAPTER 3: BEST PRACTICES FOR AVOIDING AND MITIGATING OUT-OF-SEQUECE (OOS) WORK ................................................................................................................... 50 3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 50 3.2 Objective ..............................................................................................................