Lagos Property Market Consensus Report (H1 2020)
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Lagos State Branch C H A N G IN G T H E SK YL INES Lagos Property Market Consensus Report H1 2020 A consensus of 178 Estate Surveyors & Valuers and Property Professionals in Lagos, Nigeria Lagos State Branch From the Branch Chairman's Desk 1 Dotun Bamigbola FNIVS, FRICS August, 2020 Chairman, NIESV Lagos State Branch The Data Agenda from 30 major neighbourhoods across Lagos State. Data is the singular most important missing factor in the Nigerian real estate The report, of course, has come at a market over the years. challenging time with the closure of the world economy, Nigeria inclusive, due to the While most advanced economies have lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic, moved ahead with the availability of big which is currently being eased out. data, for development and investment decision making by both public and private The earlier prediction that the Nigerian real sector players in real estate and housing, estate sector was expected to grow at 2.65 the Nigerian market still suffers from a percent in 2020, has now been distorted by dearth of data availability. the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, the initial plan for a quarterly release of this With the real estate sector still contributing report has also been affected, hence the H1 low to Nigeria's GDP at 7% and in view of 2020 report which covers major 30 the expected growth by all players in neighourhoods in Lagos State, categorised private and public sectors over the years, under seven (7) zones. there is need for data to aid the growth of this all-important sector of the economy. The report provides average rental and This need for data has witnessed the sales values across the zones while the advent of some individual organizations Yield for each zone is captured. This is a which have released various real estate start. However, it remains relevant for good outlook reports in recent years. However, use by private sector investors (both local the availability of data on an institutional and foreign), professionals for advisory scale to make it credible, measurable and services and the public sector for reliable has been the challenge. measuring market progress and taking developmental decisions which will affect Now, the wait is over! The Lagos State the sector and the economy at large. Branch of the Nigerian Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers (NIESV Lagos State The release of the H2 2020 report, is Branch), has responded to this call by planned to coincide with our 50th Branch making available credible and reliable Anniversary in December 2020. It will property market data via this report. This provide data for an expanded coverage maiden edition of the Lagos Property area of Lagos State, including other aspects Market Consensus Report covers the half of real estate like commercial retail and year (January - June) 2020 - H1 2020 with industrial properties which are not covered data on rental and sales values of in this maiden report. residential and commercial properties w w w . n i e s v l a g o s . o r g 02 Lagos State Branch Content Page 02 From the Branch 1 Chairman’s Desk Page 04 Executive 2 Summary Page 06 3 Map of Lagos Consensus Page 07 4 Pricing per Zone Page 11 Property 5 Rental Yields Page 13 6 Conclusion Page 14 7 Appreciation w w w . n i e s v l a g o s . o r g Lagos State Branch Executive Summary 2 The Lagos Property Market Consensus intending members. Report H1 2020 is a published account of average property values across various A controlled consensus survey was locations in Lagos State. Using the spot adapted to ascertain the average property consensus capital and rental values, the values per location. To achieve this, Lagos rental yields for each location were also State was divided into 7 zones: Island 1 computed. The aim of the consensus (Lagos Island, Old Ikoyi, S/West Ikoyi, report is to provide broad real estate data Banana Island, Victoria Island), Island 2 and promote transparency of the Lagos (Lekki Phase 1, Ikate, Osapa, Agungi & property market for good investment Chevron), Island 3 (Ajah, Sangotedo, decisions. The report will be of utmost Awoyaya & Lakowe), Mainland 1 (Surulere, benefit to major stakeholders like Yaba, Ilupeju & Gbagada), Mainland 2 professionals, investors, end users and (Amuwo Odofin, Isolo, Festac, Apapa), government agencies. The data was Mainland 3 (Ikeja GRA, Maryland, Ikeja & provided via survey by 14 Fellows of the Alausa) and Island 4 (Ogba, Ogudu, Institution (FNIVS), 86 Associate members Magodo GRA 1 (Isheri) & Magodo GRA 2 (ANIVS) and 78 Probationers/Graduates (Shangisha). Table 1: H1 2020: Average Land, Residential & Office Prices in Lagos Island Zone 1 Island Zone 2 Island Zone 3 Mainland Zone 1 Mainland Zone 2 Mainland Zone 3 Mainland Zone 4 w w w . n i e s v l a g o s . o r g 04 Lagos State Branch Data was gathered on the average land nascent Island 2 areas is also reflected in its prices, 3-bed & 4-bed rental and sale prices h i g h p r i c e o f l a n d a v e r a g i n g and office space prices, in the various ₦112,021/sqm. Per house types, Island 1 locations mentioned above. Island 1 zone zone has the highest values (rental & sale) recorded the highest land prices followed for both 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom by Mainland 3. This is a reflection of the houses. The same also goes for office deepened level of commercialization in space rental values. these 2 zones. The growing development in Table 2: H1 2020: Average Residential Rental Yields Utilizing the average residential capital As mentioned earlier, this report aims at values and rental values in 30 nodes within closing a previous gap of unavailability of the state (Lagos) the corresponding rental property price data. However, in using this yields were computed as shown in the data provided, It is critical to understand chart above. Chevron showed the highest that these figures are averages of a yield of 6.87%, next was Agungi (6.31%), consensus of value opinions and may not while Osapa came in third with 6.06%. The reflect every individual transaction. lowest yield was seen in Ogudu – 3.10%, next being Magodo Shangisha – 3.19% and third being Magodo Isheri 3.20%. The median yield in Lagos state from this consensus analysis is 4.32% and it is obtainable in Yaba. w w w . n i e s v l a g o s . o r g 05 Lagos State Branch Map of Lagos State 3 Showing zonal structure adopted in the Lagos Property Market Consensus Report Mainland 3 Mainland 4 Mainland 1 Ajegunle Island 3 Mainland 2 Island 1 Island 2 ISLAND 1 ISLAND 2 ISLAND 3 MAINLAND 1 MAINLAND 2 MAINLAND 3 MAINLAND 4 1. Lagos Island 6. Lekki Phase 1 11. Ajah 15. Surulere 19. Amuwo Odon 23. Ikeja GRA 27. Ogba 2. Old Ikoyi 7. Ikate 12. Sangotedo 16. Yaba 20. Isolo 24. Maryland 28. Ogudu 3. South-West Ikoyi 8. Osapa 13. Awoyaya 17. Ilupeju 21. FESTAC 25. Ikeja 29. Magodo GRA 1 (Magodo Isheri) 4. Banana Island 9. Agungi 14. Lakowe 18. Gbagada 22. Apapa 26. Alausa 30. Magodo GRA 2 (Magodo Shangisha) 5. Victoria Island 10. Chevron w w w . n i e s v l a g o s . o r g 06 Lagos State Branch Consensus Pricing Per Zone 4 Zone A Table 3: Island 1 Lagos Island, Old Ikoyi, South-West Ikoyi, Banana Island & Victoria Island Responses were gotten from 24 practicing ₦ 1 0 5 , 2 6 3 / s q m f o r o ffi c e s p a c e Estate Surveyors and Valuers /property respectively. Lagos Island commands the professionals in areas such as Lagos Island, lowest value across all categories. This is Old Ikoyi, South-West Ikoyi, Banana Island largely due to infrastructure stress and and Victoria Island. Banana Island increasing densification in the area. commanded the highest value across all Victoria Island is home to a number of property categories and still maintains its luxury apartments, flats, maisonettes and status as the most expensive location in penthouses and this is reflected in its high Nigeria. In terms of house and office types, rental and sale price for a 4-bedroom Banana Island and Old Ikoyi are the upper- house. Property data from this zone has a class markets with both recording an high response rate from serviced a v e r a g e o f ₦ 1 4 3 , 3 3 3 / s q m a n d commercial and residential uses. Zone B Table 4: Island 2 Lekki Phase 1, Ikate, Osapa, Agungi & Chevron w w w . n i e s v l a g o s . o r g 07 Lagos State Branch Responses were gotten from 28 practicing values will likely be on the increase. The Estate Surveyors and Valuers /Property flooding situation in Agungi axis has Professionals in areas such as Lekki Phase hampered a little on its property market 1, Ikate, Osapa, Agungi and Chevron. Land and is commanding the lowest values in values commanded the highest in Lekki the zone. Property data from this zone has Phase 1 – ₦173,519/sqm on the average. a high response rate from serviced Lekki Phase 1 has grown to become a commercial and residential uses, choice location for investment and is particularly around the Chevron area, becoming increasingly so. Ikate's proximity which has mostly serviced residential to Lekki Phase 1 has positioned it the 2nd estates.