Israel Racing toward disaster ’s unsustainable population bomb By Alon Tal

ISRAELIS LIVE in the most crowded coun- 40-plus children because an overwhelmed press paid little attention to the report even try in the developed world. But few under- teacher cannot provide minimal individual though its findings should have troubled stand the cumulative price they pay now attention; or knowing that one’s successful anyone who cares about the Land of Israel that quantity of life has begun to degrade children will never be able to afford a new and the future of the Third Jewish Common- quality of life. apartment due to the insatiable demand that wealth. Distilled to its essence, the report’s Signs are everywhere: missing the wed- drives ever-rising prices. three main findings are: Israel’s population ding ceremony of a dear friend because of Such heartbreaking situations are going to is set to expand by 5 million people over the an unanticipated traffic jam; being turned get worse – much worse. next 23 years; the number of elderly citizens away from a visit to a favorite nature re- On August 14, the Israel National Eco- will double; and the percentage of Haredi serve because the site has long since filled nomic Council issued a seemingly banal, (ultra-Orthodox) Israelis will increase from beyond capacity; waiting years for a day in technical publication called “Regional 11% to 20%. court because of the backlog; seeing a child Population Scenarios for the State of Isra- Typically, population pronouncements fall behind and alienated in a classroom of el During the Years 2015-2040.” The local by the government are festive affairs; on

14 THE REPORT SEPTEMBER 18, 2017 ALON ALON TAL

With 300,000 new cars sold each year, congestion on major thoroughfares begins at sunrise, with gridlock conditions prevailing well into the night

Independence Day, the media historical- number has grown more than tenfold. As aggressive and unpleasant places where ly celebrate this or that new demographic population growth reaches unprecedented teachers face unimaginable pedagogical achievement. The report from the Na- levels of 150,000 new people a year, infra- challenges. About half of Israel’s chil- tional Economic Council, the elite think structure and services cannot keep up. dren report incidents of verbal violence in tank based in the Prime Minister’s Office Israel’s hospitals are the most crowded school; a third have encountered some form charged with charting Israel’s long-term in the OECD with up to 130% occupancy of physical violence. economic strategy, strikes a different note, levels. But that’s just a statistic. For many however. It is troubled. The opening letter Israelis, it means interminably long waits WITH 300,000 new cars sold each year, by its chairman, noted economics professor for basic procedures, clogged emergency congestion on major thoroughfares begins Avi Simhon, speaks of the associated chal- wards and patients stranded in the beds lin- at sunrise, with gridlock conditions prevail- lenges. His concerns are expressed as a dis- ing the corridors of wards that simply have ing well into the night. Unfortunately, Israe- cernible understatement. no room left. lis will have to get used to even more delays When Israel was established, it was home Israel’s schools are also notoriously and frustrations ‒ Transportation Ministry to roughly 850,000 people. In 69 years, that crowded. This means they are often noisy, models predict that average citizens could

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soon be spending an additional 55 minutes its per capita greenhouse gas emissions per day in their cars. 26% by the year 2030. The trouble is that, Environmentally, overpopulation is un- by that year, the country’s population itself dermining past achievements and pushing is set to grow more than 35%. Even if hero- the country into a full-blown ecological ic efforts cut emissions as promised, overall crisis. With the government racing to cre- greenhouse gas release in Israel will rise. ate 60,000 new housing units a year, the landscape is paying a dreadful price. Ac- THE COUNTRY finds itself on a treadmill cording to a 2017 report issued by Maarag, that is going faster and faster. Now, the Na- a consortium of environmental agencies, tional Economic Council Report warns that each year for most of the past two decades, the pace of demographic increase is about 10 square kilometers of open spaces were to get a lot faster. That is the nature of expo- transformed into new neighborhoods, roads nential functions. and commercial space. Then, beginning, in How did the velocity of population 2013, the area lost annually to development growth in Israel come to reach such break- doubled to 20 square kilometers. neck levels? This shouldn’t surprise anyone who stud- For the country’s first 50 years, aliya was ies the environmental impacts of overpop- the primary engine of Israel’s demographic ulation. Damage is never linear. For many expansion. But this has changed. The Coun- years, there may be a slow and steady de- cil’s report optimistically expects 25,000 terioration, but when critical thresholds are immigrants to arrive each year, roughly the crossed a collapse can ensue. Israel’s ecol- average number that has moved to Israel ogists agree that the present biodiversity over the past 15 years. Assuming they all emergency cannot be solved with an annual stay – a dubious assumption at best – new population increase of 2%. olim would only represent a tenth of the Israel, is often called the “Land of the Ga- country’s overall population growth. At zelle.” These sprightly creatures have shared the same time, many Israelis will choose to the hillsides of the countryside with humans emigrate, leaving the general migration bal- from time immemorial. The country’s strin- ance at a steady state. on average, twice the average of OECD gent hunting laws and nature reserve sys- Accordingly, Israel’s Law of Return, countries – more than women in India. Of tem brought their depleted populations back which promises every Jew and their family course, averages do not tell the real story. from the brink to robust levels after the state worldwide Israeli citizenship, is not really Births in Israel take place disproportionate- was established. Sadly, the last decade has a factor in present demographic dynamics. ly in certain ethnic and religious sectors: seen a major decline. As habitats become This is actually good news. It means that Haredi families average roughly 6.5 chil- fragmented due to human proliferation, the the large Jewish Diasporas, who lived for dren per family; Beduin Israelis around 5.5. animals are disappearing. Prof. Uri Shanas, so long under the cloud of political perse- chair of the Science Committee of Israel’s cution or who faced severe economic hard- THIS WAS not always the case. Accord- Nature and Parks Authority, talks about an ship, have been able to move on. Israeli ing to Hebrew University economics pro- 80% loss in overall gazelle numbers during immigration policy surely does not need to fessor Joram Mayshar, during the 1950s the past decade. The International Union for be reformed. Anyone with a thimbleful of and 1960s, fertility among Israel’s ultra- Conservation of Nature, for the first time, awareness about Jewish history should see Orthodox and religious sector was roughly has defined the Israeli gazelle as an endan- the absorption of more than three million comparable to that of secular Jewish Is- gered species. The same trends hold true for Jews in a new homeland as an extraordinary raelis, with families averaging under three about a third of the country’s 115 types of achievement and a source of pride. But it children. All this changed when the govern- mammals that are defined as threatened. is unlikely that millions more Jews will be ment decided to ramp up the subsidies for In other environmental areas, overpopula- moving to Israel anytime soon. large families. In other words, it was public tion simply makes progress impossible. Is- The country’s unsustainable population policy that catalyzed what, in retrospect, is rael has made an impressive commitment as dynamics today are a function of high birth a significant cultural transformation. It was part of the Paris Climate Accord to reduce rates: Israeli women have 3.1 children, certainly not anything mandated by norma-

16 THE JERUSALEM REPORT SEPTEMBER 18, 2017 An aerial view of Bat Yam

roughly $10,000 in today’s currency). Ben-Gurion consistently framed fertility in nationalistic terms, calling families with fewer than four children unpatriotic. Such slogans did not seem to sway the public very much, however, especially Israel’s Ashkenazi citizens who continued to opt for small families. So, in 1961, the prime minister drafted Roberto Bachi, Israel’s leading demogra- pher and at the time director of the Central Bureau of Statistics, to design a national, pro-natal strategy. It would take several years of deliberations, but the simple for- mula proposed by the “Bachi Committee” remains standard Israeli policy today: Encourage people to have many children through promotional programs; Make it hard for women to receive abor- tions; and Provide significant subsidies for large families. It would not take long for the public to respond to the dizzying menu of fertility incentives that emerged: A woman is enti- tled to a significant government grant upon leaving the hospital after birth. Families receive a monthly payment for every child tive Jewish tradition. Indeed, Jewish law “internal aliya,” a code word for high Jew- under 18, with the amount of the disburse- only requires families to have two children ish fertility, to supplement Jewish immigra- ment increasing with each additional child. and the Talmud prohibits births altogether tion that was never sufficient to meet the Large families are exempt from city tax- in times of ecological crisis. prime minister’s ambitious vision. Even be- es and are prioritized for receiving public The desire to accelerate the birth rates in fore signing an armistice with Syria to end housing. Fathers with six children are ex- Israel was, however, universal among Zion- the War of Independence, Israel’s govern- empt from reserve duty. ist politicians during the early years of the ment decided to reward “champion moth- Typically, large Israeli families live below state. There was a justifiable sense of urgen- ers” with a prize of 100 Israeli lira (worth the poverty line and receive considerable cy immediately after the Holocaust as the additional welfare payments as “supple- Jewish community worldwide felt a sense Typically, large Israeli ments” to their salaries. One conservative of responsibility to replace the one-third of estimate calculates that by the time a child Jewish people who had perished in the Nazi families live below the reaches age 18, the state has subsidized death machines. Moreover, Arab Israeli their life at a rate of $120,000. With a more leaders at the time spoke openly about the poverty line and receive comprehensive assessment, the figure is need to defeat the Jews on the demograph- considerable additional twice that level. This means that a family ic battlefront, calling the womb of the Arab with six or seven children has received well mother their “secret weapon.” Fertility in welfare payments as over $1 million from other taxpayers. those days among Arab citizens was indeed The National Economic Council final- extraordinary, reaching 8.5 per family in ‘supplements’ to their ly decided to weigh in on the issue in its 1965, presumably the highest in the world. August report, highlighting the dramatic David Ben-Gurion countered by a call for salaries increase among Haredi populations and

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hinting about possible ramifications for WHILE THE number of Haredim accept- ing the government, Israel has consistent- the economy. It would seem that not only ed to colleges has increased dramatical- ly adopted a welfare state model for the environmentalists have come to recognize ly, some 60% of the men and 40% of the economy. This can be attributed to the that present population patterns are un- women end up dropping out; the lack of country’s socialist roots, combined with a sustainable; economists are increasingly a solid background in English and mathe- traditional, Jewish commitment to charity alarmed, as well. That’s because the bulk of matics is often given as the reason. Those and community solidarity. Israelis have local population growth today can be found who do graduate frequently are not trained always enjoyed a social safety net that is among Haredi and Beduin families. to land lucrative positions, such as those in quite “dense” relative to other, more afflu- Since the 1960s, non-Beduin, Muslim the highly competitive hi-tech or bio-tech ent capitalist countries. Israeli citizens have undergone an aston- sectors. The problem is that the modern welfare ishing “demographic transition.” This text- state was designed to help disadvantaged book phenomenon occurs when rural popu- As the Israeli population individuals who have undergone serious ac- lations become urbanized and large families cidents or diseases, as well as to support the become an economic burden rather than a ages, there will be elderly. It was never seen as a framework valued commodity. where a sizable community adopts a col- Israeli Muslim Arabs now have fewer more retired people, lective strategy of being a recipient rather children than Jewish Israelis. Druze, who than a contributor to the national economy. once had seven children in a family, are unable to work, who As the Israeli population ages, there will be at replacement 2.1 levels. Significant eco- need assistance, but more retired people, unable to work, who nomic gaps remain, but these sectors want need assistance, but a smaller percentage to work and are increasingly well educat- a smaller percentage of working-age citizens contributing to the ed and integrated into the Israeli economy. economy. Israel will no longer be able to Notwithstanding a modest drop in fertili- of working-age citizens support its less fortunate citizens. ty, Beduin citizens continue to have large This disturbing economic prognosis is families. To some extent, this is due to the contributing to the very much linked to family size. Today, renewal of polygamy as a common fami- one of every three Israeli children lives be- ly framework even though it constitutes a economy low the poverty line and needs help. This criminal offense. number is expected to rise, perhaps even It is Haredi Israelis, however, who consti- double. That’s because Israeli families with tute the fastest growing sector in the coun- One important indicator showing the two or three children are rarely indigent, re- try. Responding to the compelling incen- health of an economy is a society’s “de- gardless of whether they are secular, Bedu- tives attained by their political leaders, for pendency ratio.” In most countries, this is in or ultra-Orthodox. Resources in smaller many years scores of Haredi men in Israel a strictly age-associated index that aggre- families invariably can be found to support opted out of the labor market, preferring gates the number of people younger than children with special needs and interests; to live off government handouts that grew 15 and over 65 relative to the total society. there is quiet space at home for learning with the number of children. At its peak, With the doubling of a population that of- and doing homework; parents make a net unemployment levels among Haredi men ten chooses not to work, the actual ratio in contribution to the national economy. Once reached 65%. Most Haredi families lived Israel will be far higher. This means the families cross the line of four or five chil- on subsidies and the stipends provided by burden on Israeli wage earners and taxpay- dren, however, they become poor and need many publicly funded yeshivot. ers will continue to increase. government assistance. That’s just simply This phenomenon has tempered some- The implications for Israel’s long-term long division with a higher denominator. what in recent years. The 2017 figures economic prospects are disturbing. An An increasing number of Israelis are suggest that close to half of Haredi men internal report at the Finance Ministry as- starting to ask questions about the old pop- are now working, while three-quarters of sessing the projected tax balance between ulation assumptions. For the first time, Isra- Haredi women are also employed. But these recipients and contributors, along with wel- el’s civil society is responding to the demo- numbers do not tell the full story. fare payments that large families receive, graphic challenge: “Zafuf” (Crowded), The Because of their large families, Hare- reached a grave conclusion: It will not be Israel Forum for Population, Environment di women frequently work only part-time long until Israel reaches budget-deficit lev- and Society is a new public interest orga- jobs. And, due to their limited skill sets, re- els that will essentially bankrupt the coun- nization established by a diverse group of muneration is often inconsequential. When try. The example of Greece and its econom- academics to raise public awareness about families are large, the government still must ic bailout is offered as a cautionary tale. the challenges of overpopulation in Israel augment many salaries. Regardless of the political parties head- and consider solutions. The organization

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has begun to meet with decision makers to should be a place of beauty where quality discuss different policy options to start sta- of life is maximized. bilizing Israel’s population. From a public policy perspective, the Itamar Shachar, a leading local environ- measures required to move the country mental campaigner, serves as the group’s toward stable demographic dynamics are director. Shachar left a comfortable posi- fairly clear: Cancellation of financial in- tion in one of Israel’s leading PR firms to centives and the many advantages enjoyed take on the position. He is well aware of by large families have proven to affect fer- just how difficult it is to sell “sustainable tility worldwide. Israel is no exception. demography” to an Israeli public for whom When he served as finance minister, maximum population growth has always cut child allowances been axiomatic. in half. Immediately there was a drop in Shachar frames the organization’s mes- birth rates among families in the high-fer- sage in terms of “high density” and crowd- tility sectors. Ultimately, however, any ing, something that is more immediate and country’s path to sustainable population accessible to citizens than more remote im- patterns needs to include empowerment of Alon Tal: An increasing number of Israelis pacts, such as ecological disasters. He also women. Providing women from all com- are starting to ask questions about the old has helped the group bridge the gap with munities in Israel with educational oppor- population assumptions the growing number of economists who tunities and professional horizons is a pre- are beginning to depart from antiquated requisite to progress. orthodoxy, which assumes that prosperity Prof. Daphna Carmeli, a health sociolo- “There’s no question that the taboo requires rapid population growth. gist from Haifa University, is Israel’s lead- around low fertility or having no children ing scholar on issues involving fertility at all is particularly powerful in Israel,” he AMONG THE forum’s steering commit- among Israeli women. On the one hand, acknowledges. “But Israelis have proven tee members is Dr. Eliyahu Ben Moshe, she emphasizes that although the spotlight time and again that they are intellectually longtime lecturer in demography at He- is often on Beduin and ultra-Orthodox nimble and can abandon old ways of think- brew University and formerly the deputy communities, fertility rates among Israe- ing when exposed to more enlightened per- director of the Central Bureau of Statistics. lis across social strata are about twice as spectives. Consider how the Israeli public’s Considered by many to be Israel’s foremost high as their European counterparts. The attitudes toward the gay community demographer, the Council’s report relied state, along with private citizens, invests have changed over the past decade. It’s heavily on his forecasts. Ben Moshe be- unparalleled resources in generating bio- a 180-degree change in direction. I am lieves that Israel will, for now, be capable genetically related children. Israeli women convinced that with the right information of adapting to the rising population density. undergo more cycles of in vitro fertilization about population’s impacts and a culturally But it will pay a price that will rise with each than anywhere on the planet, with exten- sensitive presentation, most Israelis would generation. sive use of donor sperm and eggs, as well also change their positions on the issue of He explains, “Because of our decisions as domestic and international surrogacy. At optimal family size.” today, our children will suffer. And not the same time, however, Carmeli identi- The publication of a report by an august just in terms of lost landscapes and natu- fies a possible shift in traditional outlooks: body such as the National Economic Coun- ral vistas. They will be stuck in traffic lon- Many young Israeli women express weaker cil reflects the new kind of thinking that ger; they will not be able to enjoy beaches commitment to having large families or to is required in Israel, if it is not to collapse as much; the quality of their life will be having children at all. The dominant, pro- under the weight of a populace too numer- worse.” natalist discourse may be eroding, giving ous for a small, fragile, promised land to An emphasis on quality as opposed to way to competing alternatives. sustain. quantity is one of the ideological changes While it is very easy to identify effec- There was a time when having a large that needs to take place in Israel. Many cit- tive policy measures, the political calcu- family in Israel may have been a patriotic izens are beginning to recognize that rather lus required to make changes is far more act. For those who love the country today, than seek “maximal carrying capacity” it is challenging. however, it is time to embrace the benefits time to think in terms of “optimal carrying Dr. Eyal Rotenberg, an environmental of two children.  capacity.” The Land of Israel should not be scientist from the Weizmann Institute of some sort of factory farm into which more Science and co-founder of the Population Alon Tal is the chair of the Department of and more people are crammed. Rather, it Forum is optimistic, however. Public Policy at

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