Israel Racing toward disaster Israel’s unsustainable population bomb By Alon Tal ISRAELIS LIVE in the most crowded coun- 40-plus children because an overwhelmed press paid little attention to the report even try in the developed world. But few under- teacher cannot provide minimal individual though its findings should have troubled stand the cumulative price they pay now attention; or knowing that one’s successful anyone who cares about the Land of Israel that quantity of life has begun to degrade children will never be able to afford a new and the future of the Third Jewish Common- quality of life. apartment due to the insatiable demand that wealth. Distilled to its essence, the report’s Signs are everywhere: missing the wed- drives ever-rising prices. three main findings are: Israel’s population ding ceremony of a dear friend because of Such heartbreaking situations are going to is set to expand by 5 million people over the an unanticipated traffic jam; being turned get worse – much worse. next 23 years; the number of elderly citizens away from a visit to a favorite nature re- On August 14, the Israel National Eco- will double; and the percentage of Haredi serve because the site has long since filled nomic Council issued a seemingly banal, (ultra-Orthodox) Israelis will increase from beyond capacity; waiting years for a day in technical publication called “Regional 11% to 20%. court because of the backlog; seeing a child Population Scenarios for the State of Isra- Typically, population pronouncements fall behind and alienated in a classroom of el During the Years 2015-2040.” The local by the government are festive affairs; on 14 THE JERUSALEM REPORT SEPTEMBER 18, 2017 ALON ALON TAL With 300,000 new cars sold each year, congestion on major thoroughfares begins at sunrise, with gridlock conditions prevailing well into the night Independence Day, the media historical- number has grown more than tenfold. As aggressive and unpleasant places where ly celebrate this or that new demographic population growth reaches unprecedented teachers face unimaginable pedagogical achievement. The report from the Na- levels of 150,000 new people a year, infra- challenges. About half of Israel’s chil- tional Economic Council, the elite think structure and services cannot keep up. dren report incidents of verbal violence in tank based in the Prime Minister’s Office Israel’s hospitals are the most crowded school; a third have encountered some form charged with charting Israel’s long-term in the OECD with up to 130% occupancy of physical violence. economic strategy, strikes a different note, levels. But that’s just a statistic. For many however. It is troubled. The opening letter Israelis, it means interminably long waits WITH 300,000 new cars sold each year, by its chairman, noted economics professor for basic procedures, clogged emergency congestion on major thoroughfares begins Avi Simhon, speaks of the associated chal- wards and patients stranded in the beds lin- at sunrise, with gridlock conditions prevail- lenges. His concerns are expressed as a dis- ing the corridors of wards that simply have ing well into the night. Unfortunately, Israe- cernible understatement. no room left. lis will have to get used to even more delays When Israel was established, it was home Israel’s schools are also notoriously and frustrations ‒ Transportation Ministry to roughly 850,000 people. In 69 years, that crowded. This means they are often noisy, models predict that average citizens could THE JERUSALEM REPORT SEPTEMBER 18, 2017 15 Israel DANI MACHLIS/BGU DANI soon be spending an additional 55 minutes its per capita greenhouse gas emissions per day in their cars. 26% by the year 2030. The trouble is that, Environmentally, overpopulation is un- by that year, the country’s population itself dermining past achievements and pushing is set to grow more than 35%. Even if hero- the country into a full-blown ecological ic efforts cut emissions as promised, overall crisis. With the government racing to cre- greenhouse gas release in Israel will rise. ate 60,000 new housing units a year, the landscape is paying a dreadful price. Ac- THE COUNTRY finds itself on a treadmill cording to a 2017 report issued by Maarag, that is going faster and faster. Now, the Na- a consortium of environmental agencies, tional Economic Council Report warns that each year for most of the past two decades, the pace of demographic increase is about 10 square kilometers of open spaces were to get a lot faster. That is the nature of expo- transformed into new neighborhoods, roads nential functions. and commercial space. Then, beginning, in How did the velocity of population 2013, the area lost annually to development growth in Israel come to reach such break- doubled to 20 square kilometers. neck levels? This shouldn’t surprise anyone who stud- For the country’s first 50 years, aliya was ies the environmental impacts of overpop- the primary engine of Israel’s demographic ulation. Damage is never linear. For many expansion. But this has changed. The Coun- years, there may be a slow and steady de- cil’s report optimistically expects 25,000 terioration, but when critical thresholds are immigrants to arrive each year, roughly the crossed a collapse can ensue. Israel’s ecol- average number that has moved to Israel ogists agree that the present biodiversity over the past 15 years. Assuming they all emergency cannot be solved with an annual stay – a dubious assumption at best – new population increase of 2%. olim would only represent a tenth of the Israel, is often called the “Land of the Ga- country’s overall population growth. At zelle.” These sprightly creatures have shared the same time, many Israelis will choose to the hillsides of the countryside with humans emigrate, leaving the general migration bal- from time immemorial. The country’s strin- ance at a steady state. on average, twice the average of OECD gent hunting laws and nature reserve sys- Accordingly, Israel’s Law of Return, countries – more than women in India. Of tem brought their depleted populations back which promises every Jew and their family course, averages do not tell the real story. from the brink to robust levels after the state worldwide Israeli citizenship, is not really Births in Israel take place disproportionate- was established. Sadly, the last decade has a factor in present demographic dynamics. ly in certain ethnic and religious sectors: seen a major decline. As habitats become This is actually good news. It means that Haredi families average roughly 6.5 chil- fragmented due to human proliferation, the the large Jewish Diasporas, who lived for dren per family; Beduin Israelis around 5.5. animals are disappearing. Prof. Uri Shanas, so long under the cloud of political perse- chair of the Science Committee of Israel’s cution or who faced severe economic hard- THIS WAS not always the case. Accord- Nature and Parks Authority, talks about an ship, have been able to move on. Israeli ing to Hebrew University economics pro- 80% loss in overall gazelle numbers during immigration policy surely does not need to fessor Joram Mayshar, during the 1950s the past decade. The International Union for be reformed. Anyone with a thimbleful of and 1960s, fertility among Israel’s ultra- Conservation of Nature, for the first time, awareness about Jewish history should see Orthodox and religious sector was roughly has defined the Israeli gazelle as an endan- the absorption of more than three million comparable to that of secular Jewish Is- gered species. The same trends hold true for Jews in a new homeland as an extraordinary raelis, with families averaging under three about a third of the country’s 115 types of achievement and a source of pride. But it children. All this changed when the govern- mammals that are defined as threatened. is unlikely that millions more Jews will be ment decided to ramp up the subsidies for In other environmental areas, overpopula- moving to Israel anytime soon. large families. In other words, it was public tion simply makes progress impossible. Is- The country’s unsustainable population policy that catalyzed what, in retrospect, is rael has made an impressive commitment as dynamics today are a function of high birth a significant cultural transformation. It was part of the Paris Climate Accord to reduce rates: Israeli women have 3.1 children, certainly not anything mandated by norma- 16 THE JERUSALEM REPORT SEPTEMBER 18, 2017 An aerial view of Bat Yam roughly $10,000 in today’s currency). Ben-Gurion consistently framed fertility in nationalistic terms, calling families with fewer than four children unpatriotic. Such slogans did not seem to sway the public very much, however, especially Israel’s Ashkenazi citizens who continued to opt for small families. So, in 1961, the prime minister drafted Roberto Bachi, Israel’s leading demogra- pher and at the time director of the Central Bureau of Statistics, to design a national, pro-natal strategy. It would take several years of deliberations, but the simple for- mula proposed by the “Bachi Committee” remains standard Israeli policy today: Encourage people to have many children through promotional programs; Make it hard for women to receive abor- tions; and Provide significant subsidies for large families. It would not take long for the public to respond to the dizzying menu of fertility incentives that emerged: A woman is enti- tled to a significant government grant upon leaving the hospital after birth. Families receive a monthly payment for every child tive Jewish tradition. Indeed, Jewish law “internal aliya,” a code word for high Jew- under 18, with the amount of the disburse- only requires families to have two children ish fertility, to supplement Jewish immigra- ment increasing with each additional child.