GEOL 112 - Activity 1 Prediction to Seismic Hazard Assessment 2 Unit IV - Seismic Hazard Analysis & Preparedness
Sacramento R O
D G G E E S R Seismic Hazards A Santa S N
Rosa C R CC R E OO 1 E E N N K Napa CC 62%
F Sonoma OO 80 A R R probability for one or more Learning Outcome #1 A U N Petaluma L DD D T –– magnitude 6.7 or greater REA GG RRE earthquakes from 2003 to 2032. 101 E
S EE 4% NN This result incorporates 14% odds
VV Novato 27% Nov A A of quakes not on shown faults. Vallejo L L L F E A San 680 Y
U F L Rafael A Antioch T H A U Stockton P Y L W T A a S A Walnut R c a D Creek MT n THRUST F i . DIABLO GREENVILLE f
Danville i
c Oakland F AUL San Francisco F A U T r U L 3% O a T 580 n Tracy c c 21% is Livermore e c Hayward o Pleasanton a 3% F n Pacifica San Mateo B AUL ay 880 T Half Moon 101 Bay Palo Alto CALA 10% VERAS F 280 San Jose N 11% 0 20 MILES AUL
T 0 20 KILOMETERS S A N
17
EXTENT OF RUPTURE IN LOMA PRIETA QUAKE G Gilroy % Probability of magnitude R Gilroy E 6.7 or greater quakes G O 101 before 2032 on the R Santa Cruz I O Watsonville indicated fault
1 F
A
U Monterey
L Increasing probability T Bay along fault segments Salinas Expanding urban areas Monterey http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf 7
Reading Assignment 3 UCERF Version 3 2015 4
Final Exam Part I - Hazard Assessment • Increased number of seismically active faults in analysis Part II - Preparedness Plan •Time dependence of last event - elastic rebound theory http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/ •More detailed probabilities 7of large magnitude events 5 Final Exam - Section 1 6 Seismic Hazard Assessment • Earthquake probability • Fault surface rupture • Ground shaking • Landslides • Liquefaction • Tsunami inundation* • Structural integrity
7 7
Hazard Assessment 7 Surface Rupture 8 Types of Ground Failure
http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf67 http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf57 Surface Rupture 9 Shaking Potential or Intensity 10 Future Earthquakes
57 http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf57
Hazard Assessment - Ground Shaking 11 12 Amplification
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=536xSZ_XkSs7 7 Hazard Assessment - Ground Shaking 13 Mercalli Scale - Ground Shaking 14
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/7 7
Mercalli Scale - Ground Shaking 15 Hazard Assessment - Shake Maps & Prediction 16
7 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/7 17 Hazard Assessment 18 Rupture & Shaking Maps
7 7
Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction19 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction20
7 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmVYbjiNWds7 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction 21 Video of Liquefaction 22
7 http://youtu.be/EU66d1ytsbE7
2011 Tohoku Earthquake 23 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction 24
http://youtu.be/DlhIHhadTqc
7 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction 25 Hazard Assessment 26 Liquefaction Maps
7 7
Hazard Assessment - Landslide Maps 27 Hazard Assessment - Landslide Maps 28
7 7 29 30 Hazard Assessment Three “Other” Major California Earthquakes Landslide Maps
1933 Long Beach 1971 San Fernando 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake March 10 at 5:54 PM February 9 at 6:01 AM October 17 at 5:04 PM Magnitude 6.4 Magnitude 6.5 Magnitude 6.9 120 Deaths 65 Deaths 63 Deaths 7 7
STATE OF CALIFORNIA - GRAY DAVIS, GOVERNOR THE RESOURCES AGENCY - MARY D. NICHOLS, SECRETARY CALIFORNIA GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MAP SHEET 54 JAMES F. DAVIS, STATE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION - DARRYL YOUNG, DIRECTOR SIMPLIFIED FAULT ACTIVITY MAP OF CALIFORNIA
O R E G O N O O 120 O O 124 122 ▲ O
▲ 42 ▲ ▲ 42 ▲
▲ ▲ ● ▲ ▲ ▲ SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES AND FAULT RUPTURES IN CALIFORNIA
▲
▲
▲ 11 ▲
▲
▲ ▲ ▲
▲ ▲
▲ ▲ S
o ▲
▲ ▲ ▲
▲ ▲ u ▲ ▲ ▲ Map t Earthquake Date and Fault ▲ ▲ h
▲ ▲
▲ ▲ Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act
F ▲ ▲ ▲ No (Location) Mag. Surface Rupture ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ o
▲ 32
r S
▲ k ▲ CALIFORNIA u ▲ ▲ F r
▲ ▲ ~7.3 ▲ ▲ 1 1812 San Andreas (Wrightwood), 12/8 15 + mi ▲ p ▲ a ▲ GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ▲ ▲ C u r
l i
▲ s 2 1812 (Santa Barbara Channel), 12/21 ~7.1 (offshore) ▲ ▲ a ▲ t ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ e
s ▲
▲ ▲ ▲
c ▲ ▲ ▲ V 2' 1812 San Andreas 45 ± mi 31
~7.1
a 44 ▲ ▲
d ▲ ▲ a ▲ ▲ l i ▲ ▲ ▲ l (Alternate location proposed by a e ▲ y
▲ ▲ ▲ Toppozada and others, 2002) F
▲ ▲ ▲
▲ a ▲
▲ ▲ u 3 1838 San Andreas ~7.4 36 ± mi ▲ l
▲ G ▲ t
▲
▲ ▲ ▲ L r 4 1853 San Andreas (Lonoak) ~6.0 *
o ▲ ik ▲
g ▲ e (Toppozada & others, 2002)
▲ ▲ a ▲ l 51 ▲ ▲ y ▲ n
▲ F ▲ F a C A L I F O R N I A 5 1857 San Andreas (Fort Tejon) 7.9 200 ± mi
▲ T u ● a ▲ ▲ ▲ w l u ▲ ▲ t S ▲ 6 1861 Calaveras (Dublin) 5.8 8 ± mi 22 ▲ ▲ l ▲
t i ▲ u ▲ n H
▲ b ▲ CONSERVATION ▲ ▲ a
▲ 7 1865 (Santa Cruz Mtns.) 6.5 S * d ▲ ▲ ▲ t O
u ▲ ▲ i s C ● c ▲ ▲ 41 1868 Hayward 7.0 30 ± mi t 8 S t ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ e r ● i ▲ ▲ o i e ▲ r s
n s e 9 ▲ 1872 Owens Valley 7.4 60 ± mi 21 k ▲ k F ▲ ▲ i ●▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ y ▲ L ▲ F ▲ ▲ a 10 6.8 o 1872 Owens Valley * i 35 u a Passed by legislature to mitigate the t t u u le ▲ l ▲
▲ S t l 11 1873 (Crescent City) 6.9
▲ F
▲ ▲ * a t N ▲ ▲ 29 ▲ a S l Z t u • a o 12 1890 San Andreas (San Juan Bautista) 6.3 5 ± mi ▲ ▲ C ● l l
m t n ▲
r E
▲ ▲ ▲ e e o ▲ 13 1892 Unnamed (Allendale) 6.6 1 mi ? n e ▲ ▲ ▲ k ▲ F a F V 14 1898 Rodgers Creek? (Mare Island) 6.4 * u ▲ 24 ▲ ▲ ▲ l a ▲ ▲ t ▲ u l (offshore) A 15 1898 (Mendocino) ~6.7 Zo ▲ Ru ▲ t ▲ n ss F ▲ ▲ e ault 16 1899 San Jacinto 6.7 2 (?) mi ▲ ▲ 1915 ● lt D ▲ ▲ au Pleasant 17 1901 San Andreas (Parkfield) 6.4 "several mi" 62 ▲ F
● ▲ ▲ ek ●
▲
▲ re A V alley 18 1906 San Andreas 7.8 270 mi
▲ M ▲ ▲ C endocino Fau 61 ▲ ttle M 7.3
lt ● ● Ba 19 1911 Calaveras (Morgan Hill) 6.4 ▲ ▲ *
63 ▲ ▲
▲ ▲
▲ ▲ H 20 1918 San Jacinto 6.8 * ▲ ▲
▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ o
▲ ▲ ▲ n
▲
▲ e 21 1918 (Eureka) 6.5 (offshore) hazard of surface faulting to structures R ▲ ▲ ▲ y
e ▲ C L
▲ ▲ d a 22 1922 (Eureka) 7.3 (offshore)
▲ h k M ▲ ic e 32 ▲ ▲ C o F 23 1922 San Andreas (Cholame) 6.3 0.25 (?) mi
o ▲ u a
o M u ▲
n ▲ O ▲ l
t r o t 24 1923 (Cape Mendocino) 7.2 (offshore)
a ▲ n Z 40
▲
▲ n i ▲ n i o n o ▲ n 25 1927 (Lompoc) 7.1 (offshore)
F g c e W l a ▲ i E u ▲ i F n 26 1933 Newport-Inglewood (Long Bch.) 6.4 * ▲ l ▲ L ocation questionable (Toppozada & others, 1981; t l a e
s t l C
e ▲ o u F amel l ▲ w DePolo & others, 1996) 27 1934 San Andreas (Parkfield) 6.0 2 mi ▲ l a
R t
▲ u B i ▲ s ig M 1954
d l B ▲
▲ g ▲ F t e o 28 1940 Imperial 7.0 40 ± mi
e ▲ nd h ● Dixie V alley B a F P a F u au a l e w 1941 (Cape Mendocino) 6.6 (offshore) a u ▲ l t M 6.8 29 r a k
l ▲ t ▲ t ▲ ▲ 1954 t k F le Z a 1860 t u 30 1942 (Fish Creek Mtns.) 6.4 * t o F l M 6.5 Stillwater ● n t a e ▲ Olinghouse M 6.8 u 31 1947 Manix (Mojave Desert) 6.5 1 mi 42 ●
▲ l
t S F for human occupancy following 1971 San p 38 32 1950 Fort Sage 5.6 5.5 mi ▲ o ▲ r M 1954 in o 33 1952 Superstition Hills 5.8 2 ± mi t Rainbow Mtn. g e
h ● ▲ s l i o 1869 M 6.8 l 1903 34 1952 White Wolf 7.3 33 mi n ▲ l
s ▲ ● M 6.4 e Wonder
s ▲ F F 35 1954 (East of Arcata) 6.6 *
M a a F
u u ▲ ▲ a a ▲ l 36 1966 Imperial 3.6 6 mi t l u a t 1954 c l ▲ S t 37 1966 San Andreas (Parkfield) 6.0 23 mi ▲ a Fairview Peak
15 m y ● ▲ ● s 1867 M 7.1 a t ● 38 1966 Unnamed (Truckee) 6.0 10 mi e F M 6.5 m ▲ ▲ a 39 1968 Coyote Creek (Borrego Mtn.) 6.6 u 19 mi l P S t a 40 1971 San Fernando 6.6 9.5 mi n O M 39 ▲ A 41 1975 Galway Lake 5.2 4.2 mi n e
d S l D o r w W 1954 42 1975 Cleveland Hill 6.1 3.4 mi ▲ n e u A e H
a n e s i il Fernando earthquake t il n l s 43 1975 Brawley 4.7 6.5 mi
z G i o F l F a e s g w F o r a e ▲ u F n a 44 1978 Stephens Pass 4.6 1.2 + mi F s o n lt lt u
a F t o . l h
u a t a 45 1979 Homestead Valley 4.9 0.22 mi l i u t l F C ▲ l l t s a 46 1979 Johnson Valley 5.3 0.9 mi Identify Z u o F C l ▲ a R n t 47 1979 Calaveras (Coyote Lake) 5.7 23.4 mi ? u o e a l l
d t a 48 1979 Imperial, Brawley, Rico 6.5 18; 7.8; .6 mi ▲ v g S
e e I r y r 49 5.8 s s M 1980 Greenville 3.9 mi 13 a B t C s e e e r m l 50 1980 Hilton Creek 6.2 12 mi ▲ e a o ▲ 1932 e ● r n k 1934 M M e Cedar Mtn. 51 1980 (Eureka) 7.4 (offshore) F F G s ▲ Excelsior Mtn. i o a r d F u e l u 52 1982 Little Lake 5.2 6 mi a ▲ ▲ a lt e n u S n n t d a l h 53 1983 Nunez (Coalinga) 6.4 2 mi t ▲ V i o ▲ S n o P a a s F ? I o n ▲ 54 1984 Calaveras (Morgan Hill) 6.2 0.72 mi l F ly i ● l n A e ▲ ▲ a t ▲ n y u 55 1986 So. Branch San Andreas 6.0 5.4 mi
d l R ▲ F t e re lt
y a u 56 1986 White Mountains (Chalfant) 6.4 7.8 mi a 14 F a ▲ u C ▲ e s F O
s l a on Mono Craters ▲ F H t t 38 57 1987 (Whittier Narrows) 6.0
u k * (blind thrust) a a c ▲ ▲ F u l to
a y t S T Caldera ult l w ▲ 58 1987 Elmore Ranch 6.2 7.2 mi ▲ t h a r r u d 49 ▲ s 59 1987 Superstition Hills 6.6 16.8 mi t ▲ F a 6 ▲ 60 1989 San Andreas (Loma Prieta) 6.9 0.6 mi u V l e t rn 61 1992 (Petrolia) 7.2 a W * (blind thrust ?) ▲ ● li L ong V alley s h 62 1992 (Cape Mendocino) 6.6 (offshore) ● G F Caldera i O 8 a t e ▲ r u 118 63 (offshore) e lt 1992 (Cape Mendocino) 6.6 C e 18 a n 64 1992 Johnson Va., Homestead Va., 7.3 53 mi l v a i Prevent the construction of buildings ▲ l v l e e 56 Emerson, Camp Rock, Eureka Pk., r a F t s a S 50 l Burnt Mtn. (Landers) • 54 a F u M u ▲ l n a a t 65 1992 (Big Bear) 6.5 J t F * u o n 3 ● l s 7 a s t g q . 66 1994 Northridge (Northridge) 6.7 Active 19 * (blind thrust)
u F n i S i n a r ● i p 67 1999 Lavic Lake, Bullion (Hector Mine) 7.1 30 mi e u F S ● a r l u r t p ▲ S a l e a O t N e n Z r o e D G 60 ti n v * Surface rupture either not observed or not recorded. g a r e ▲ e S a d ● a l a D g r 47 it o Z g e O ▲ a e a F ▲ r y n a 37 i a t F a t o n F a u h ▲ t a u l ▲ F e u t ●O l a F lt t ▲ 10 Z w ▲ u a ▲ ▲ u o used for human occupancy on the surface l l e t t S n n 9 ▲ a n e s H ▲ V u A V n a ▲ ● 12 n t ll d a e e r l r y e l a e ▲ ▲ s M F y tn NOTE:
.
a F F ▲ u au lt a lt u No pre-Quaternary faults ▲
▲ l ▲ t
t R l shown in Nevada, Oregon, u
e a
▲ S l ▲ u i F ▲ z r or Mexico. F n S
a o i ▲ P u e a 53 y lo l r t n C r F ▲ F a o a l ● a a o ▲ r 4 W A u a ● C N u d l o a s P l e t l n F t . t h a h r 5 ● v a n e trace of active faults. m a H H a O d 100 MIL E S ▲ K 0 o C i m 50 a l 116 s a l
g n i F r y F n i a o a t F n u a F u V u l l O a t l ▲ t a t R u Z 36 l l Z i t l o n o e Faults c ▲ y 0 n n W 100 K m e o 50 17 ▲ e il N n son F S a d a c a C y i an u s N m 23 t t F y l 27 l o e ie a n t m n u S u Fa E t l a a u o t n lt F F . a 37 A F V n e u n k l o t d a A Z y L o re l (1:2,500,000) n a n w D s a O e F C lt u a k Fa A u n 52 loc l r Gar
t e ▲
H S K ▲ a
o n s ▲ g L J B
r a u E X P L A N A T I O N ▲ i l P a a S F a n c a a n F k n u z t w l a a l t t u u a a F a t Y ears Recency Z a l F e L u t L Geologic o l 34 lf r Fault u t o o n ▲ ck F Before of Description c e W h a i a Time a E t r u Symbol l t l a ▲ u F t Present Movement B s a a t M te F u a o i ck lt n H ra h lo k u le W r lt
▲ a
s au O ▲
a ▲ G F
F s F ● x a ▲ i
c u n 35 ▲ a n ▲
Historic S l ▲ a
i u a t M o ▲ ▲ ▲ ● r l ▲ u 31 t F th
o ground a C Pleito Fault t u u • y
s l Requires the State Geologist to establish a ▲ t m i ruptures, L C 41 a t e O F ul n a H ▲ au a w C li including creep. lt e F H a c 67 in ▲ o m o L P e o F 200 ▲ 25 ig ▲ le d p a u ▲ S 2' d ▲ B ▲ R ▲ a n F u l
Y o
e d l o ▲ ● ▲ n a c t ● G a u k w n Pin l l R e e Mtn a S t F F e C . Fau b ● an F a ▲ lt u a & Hazards
c A A Holocene t ri n a 64 lt u ? ▲ ifico Faul e d u l o Pac l re lt E t N l Santa Y nez Fault F as m displacement ▲ a F o a e
R u u r
▲ ▲ l l N. Frontal ▲ ▲ ▲ t t ▲ s
H 1 o
E
▲ ▲ s s
s Fault n
E
▲ ▲ 46
T F ▲ ▲ ▲
▲
10,000 ▲ ● ▲
▲ ▲ a
▲ ▲ ▲
t ▲ u ▲ A
l ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ au ▲ lt e F
Pleistocene e ▲ S
U g ▲
▲ d ▲ an G
n i abrie ▲ ▲ ▲ l ▲
▲ R F ▲ ▲ ak ault 65 e 45 Q faults. Many O ● ● ● c regulatory zones (known as Earthquake A 2 ● ▲ Sier ▲ Mtn o faults in Sierra 40 t ra Ma . Flt. t d ? l r Fau e Fau into s Nevada shown 66 ica lt P i S Ma on ● anta Cr libu F. M N 64 e u a z Islan ant e l as pre-Quaternary d Fau S w O lt p 57 C 34 P N S anta Rosa Island Fault o W h lt may be late Cenozoic. rt i ▲ ▲ ue Cut Fau - hit n ● Bl S In tie o a g r 1,600,000 n l Fa F e ul . Y P w t 55 e P o C
R d a o S r l h ▲ Faults without o o d 16 ● a r n A s F 26 S B i A V . s A an ▲ a t n N recognized e s i J d r ● a l a ▲ in d i c re n s
R 20 e o in ▲ a Quaternary F s i t s t
E o
o F
a F F F ▲ u ▲ a a s T displacement. l a a u t u u l F u Fault Zones) around the surface traces of l l lt ▲ t t a A R eferences C ited t Z Not necessarily u on l U without future t e Q DePolo and others, 1996, Planning scenario for a major C - o y o ▲ E activity potential. earthquake in W estern N evada, N evada B ureau of M ines E t l e R s C 4.5 billion and G eology, S pecial Publication 20. in r P o e re ek F F a . G oter and others, 1994, E arthquakes in C alifornia and S u ● (Age of earth) a lt 39 n C Z N evada: U .S . G eological S urvey Open-F ile R eport 94-647, o C o R n r e 58 scale 1: 1,000,000. le o o m n s ▲ ▲ ▲ a e O e d n o C 30 ● te ● 33 T oppozada and others, 1981, Preparation of isoseismal maps a 33 Is n l y 43 a and summaries of reported effects for pre-1900 C alifornia n S o 59 d n active faults and to issue appropriate maps. a earthquakes: C alifornia Division of M ines and G eology Open- F n F 48 a a Faults shown solid where well located or strongly inferred (including offshore u D u F ile R eport 81-11, 182 p. lt i l ● e t L I faults); faults dotted on land where concealed; barbs indicate upper plate of g B m o a a p n n 28 e thrust faults. T oppozada and others, 2002, S an A ndreas F ault Zone, M 5.5 T k a r ≥ c i r i a o o l earthquake history, B ulletin S eismological S ociety of A merica, in u F g n . 36 press. h F
F . a O ● ● u I C l E X 1852 t M 1892 C opyright © 2002 by the C alifornia Department of C onservation. A ll rights reserved. M 7 M 6.5 N o part of this publication may be reproduced without written permission of the C alifornia Selected epicenters - mostly ≥ M 6.5. Pre-1933 earthquakes estimated from Department of C onservation. intensity. L ocations (and magnitude) mostly from Goter and others, 1994, 118 O and Toppozada and others, 1981. T he C alifornia Department of C onservation makes no warranties as to the suitability of this product for any particular purpose. Digital Representation by Richard R. Moar and Jerry Wampole
SIMPLIFIED FAULT ACTIVITY MAP OF CALIFORNIA Compiled by Charles W. Jennings and George J. Saucedo 7 7 1999 (Revised 2002, Tousson Toppozada and David Branum) http://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/rghm/ap/Pages/main.aspx A-P Earthquake Fault Zone Maps 33 Seismic Hazards Mapping Act (SHMA)34 • Passed by the legislature following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake • Earthquake Fault Zone maps can be studied at local planning • Directs California Geological Survey departments, at offices of the to identify and map areas prone to California Geological Survey and liquefaction, earthquake-induced online landslides and amplified ground shaking
• If property is located in an • Minimize loss of life and property Earthquake Fault Zone must be through the identification, evaluation disclosed to a potential buyer and mitigation of seismic hazards. before the sales process is complete • Requires site-specific geotechnical investigations prior to permitting http://www.quake.ca.gov/gmaps/ap/ap_maps.htm development 7 http://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/shzp/Documents/SHZ_FactSheet.pdf7
35 Seismic Hazard Zone Maps 36
• Fault rupture • Ground shaking (Strong Motion) • Slope stability • Landslides • Liquefaction, ground cracking, and lateral spreading
7 7 Summary 37
• Final Exam • Earthquake Probability Forecast • Seismic Hazards • Fault rupture • Ground shaking • Slope stability • Landslides • Liquefaction •Seismic hazard zones