GEOL 112 - Activity 1 Prediction to Seismic Hazard Assessment 2 Unit IV - Seismic Hazard Analysis & Preparedness Sacramento R O D D G E S R R Seismic Hazards A Santa S N Rosa C C R C E OO 1 E E N N K Napa CC 62% F Sonoma OO 80 A R R probability for one or more Learning Outcome #1 A U N Petaluma L DD D T –– magnitude 6.7 or greater REA GG RRE earthquakes from 2003 to 2032. 101 E S E 4% E NN This result incorporates 14% odds VV Novato 27% Nov A A of quakes not on shown faults. Vallejo L L L L F E A San 680 Y U F L Rafael A Antioch T H A U Stockton P Y L W T A a S A Walnut R a c D Creek MT n THRMUTST F i . DIABLO GREENVILLE f Danville i c Oakland F AUL San Francisco F A U T r U L 3% O a T 580 n Tracy c c 21% is Livermore e c Hayward o Pleasanton a 3% F n Pacifica San Mateo B AUL ay 880 T Half Moon 101 Bay Palo Alto CALA 10% VERAS F 280 San Jose N 11% 0 20 MILES AUL T 0 20 KILOMETERS S A N 17 EXTENT OF RUPTURE IN LOMA PRIETA QUAKE G Gilroy % Probability of magnitude R Gilroy E G 6.7 or greater quakes O 101 R Santa Cruz before 2032 on the I O Watsonville indicated fault 1 F A U Monterey L Increasing probability T Bay along fault segments Salinas Expanding urban areas Monterey http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf 7 Reading Assignment 3 UCERF Version 3 2015 4 Final Exam Part I - Hazard Assessment • Increased number of seismically active faults in analysis Part II - Preparedness Plan •Time dependence of last event - elastic rebound theory http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/ •More detailed probabilities 7of large magnitude events 5 Final Exam - Section 1 6 Seismic Hazard Assessment • Earthquake probability • Fault surface rupture • Ground shaking • Landslides • Liquefaction • Tsunami inundation* • Structural integrity 7 7 Hazard Assessment 7 Surface Rupture 8 Types of Ground Failure http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf67 http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf57 Surface Rupture 9 Shaking Potential or Intensity 10 Future Earthquakes 57 http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf57 Hazard Assessment - Ground Shaking 11 12 Amplification http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=536xSZ_XkSs7 7 Hazard Assessment - Ground Shaking 13 Mercalli Scale - Ground Shaking 14 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/7 7 Mercalli Scale - Ground Shaking 15 Hazard Assessment - Shake Maps & Prediction 16 7 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/7 17 Hazard Assessment 18 Rupture & Shaking Maps 7 7 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction19 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction20 7 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmVYbjiNWds7 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction 21 Video of Liquefaction 22 7 http://youtu.be/EU66d1ytsbE7 2011 Tohoku Earthquake 23 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction 24 http://youtu.be/DlhIHhadTqc 7 Hazard Assessment - Liquefaction 25 Hazard Assessment 26 Liquefaction Maps 7 7 Hazard Assessment - Landslide Maps 27 Hazard Assessment - Landslide Maps 28 7 7 29 30 Hazard Assessment Three “Other” Major California Earthquakes Landslide Maps 1933 Long Beach 1971 San Fernando 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake March 10 at 5:54 PM February 9 at 6:01 AM October 17 at 5:04 PM Magnitude 6.4 Magnitude 6.5 Magnitude 6.9 120 Deaths 65 Deaths 63 Deaths 7 7 STATE OF CALIFORNIA - GRAY DAVIS, GOVERNOR THE RESOURCES AGENCY - MARY D. NICHOLS, SECRETARY CALIFORNIA GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MAP SHEET 54 JAMES F. DAVIS, STATE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION - DARRYL YOUNG, DIRECTOR SIMPLIFIED FAULT ACTIVITY MAP OF CALIFORNIA O R E G O N O O 120 O O 124 122 ▲ O ▲ 42 ▲ ▲ 42 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ▲ ▲ ▲ SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES AND FAULT RUPTURES IN CALIFORNIA ▲ ▲ ▲ 11 ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ S o ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ u ▲ ▲ ▲ Map t Earthquake Date and Fault ▲ ▲ h ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act F ▲ ▲ ▲ No (Location) Mag. Surface Rupture ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ o ▲ 32 r S ▲ k ▲ CALIFORNIA u ▲ ▲ F r ▲ ▲ ~7.3 ▲ ▲ 1 1812 San Andreas (Wrightwood), 12/8 15 + mi ▲ p ▲ a ▲ GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ▲ ▲ C u r l i ▲ s 2 1812 (Santa Barbara Channel), 12/21 ~7.1 (offshore) ▲ ▲ a ▲ t ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ e s ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ c ▲ ▲ ▲ V 2' 1812 San Andreas 45 ± mi 31 ~7.1 a 44 ▲ ▲ d ▲ ▲ a ▲ ▲ l i ▲ ▲ ▲ l (Alternate location proposed by a e ▲ y ▲ ▲ ▲ Toppozada and others, 2002) F ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ a ▲ ▲ ▲ u 3 1838 San Andreas ~7.4 36 ± mi ▲ l ▲ G ▲ t ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ L r 4 1853 San Andreas (Lonoak) ~6.0 * o ▲ ik ▲ g ▲ e (Toppozada & others, 2002) ▲ ▲ a ▲ l 51 ▲ ▲ y ▲ n ▲ F ▲ F a C A L I F O R N I A 5 1857 San Andreas (Fort Tejon) 7.9 200 ± mi ▲ T u ● a ▲ ▲ ▲ w l u ▲ ▲ t S ▲ 6 1861 Calaveras (Dublin) 5.8 8 ± mi 22 ▲ ▲ l ▲ t i ▲ u ▲ n H ▲ b ▲ CONSERVATION ▲ ▲ a ▲ 7 1865 (Santa Cruz Mtns.) 6.5 S * d ▲ ▲ ▲ t O u ▲ ▲ i s C ● c ▲ ▲ 41 1868 Hayward 7.0 30 ± mi t 8 S t ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ e r ● i ▲ ▲ o i e ▲ r s n s e 9 ▲ 1872 Owens Valley 7.4 60 ± mi 21 k ▲ k F i ▲ ▲ ●▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ y ▲ L ▲ F ▲ ▲ a 10 6.8 o 1872 Owens Valley * i 35 u a Passed by legislature to mitigate the t t u u le ▲ l ▲ ▲ S t l 11 1873 (Crescent City) 6.9 ▲ F ▲ ▲ * a t N ▲ ▲ 29 ▲ a S l Z t u • a o 12 1890 San Andreas (San Juan Bautista) 6.3 5 ± mi ▲ ▲ C ● l l m t n ▲ r E ▲ ▲ ▲ e e o ▲ 13 1892 Unnamed (Allendale) 6.6 1 mi ? n e ▲ ▲ ▲ k ▲ F a F V 14 1898 Rodgers Creek? (Mare Island) 6.4 * u ▲ 24 ▲ ▲ ▲ l a ▲ ▲ t ▲ u l (offshore) A 15 1898 (Mendocino) ~6.7 Zo ▲ Ru ▲ t ▲ n ss F ▲ ▲ e ault 16 1899 San Jacinto 6.7 2 (?) mi ▲ ▲ 1915 ● lt D ▲ ▲ au Pleasant 17 1901 San Andreas (Parkfield) 6.4 "several mi" 62 ▲ F ● ▲ ▲ ek ● ▲ ▲ re A V alley 18 1906 San Andreas 7.8 270 mi ▲ M ▲ ▲ C endocino Fau 61 ▲ ttle M 7.3 lt ● ● Ba 19 1911 Calaveras (Morgan Hill) 6.4 ▲ ▲ * 63 ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ H 20 1918 San Jacinto 6.8 * ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ o ▲ ▲ ▲ n ▲ ▲ e 21 1918 (Eureka) 6.5 (offshore) hazard of surface faulting to structures R ▲ ▲ ▲ y e ▲ C L ▲ ▲ d a 22 1922 (Eureka) 7.3 (offshore) ▲ h k M ▲ ic e 32 ▲ ▲ C o F 23 1922 San Andreas (Cholame) 6.3 0.25 (?) mi o ▲ u a o M u ▲ n ▲ O ▲ l t r o t 24 1923 (Cape Mendocino) 7.2 (offshore) a ▲ n Z 40 ▲ ▲ n i ▲ n i o n o ▲ n 25 1927 (Lompoc) 7.1 (offshore) F g c e W l a ▲ i E u ▲ i F n 26 1933 Newport-Inglewood (Long Bch.) 6.4 * ▲ l ▲ L ocation questionable (Toppozada & others, 1981; t l a e s t l C e ▲ o u F amel l ▲ w DePolo & others, 1996) 27 1934 San Andreas (Parkfield) 6.0 2 mi ▲ l a R t ▲ u B i ▲ s ig M 1954 d l B ▲ ▲ g ▲ F t e o 28 1940 Imperial 7.0 40 ± mi e ▲ nd h ● Dixie V alley B a F P a F u au a l e w 1941 (Cape Mendocino) 6.6 (offshore) a u ▲ l t M 6.8 29 r a k l ▲ t ▲ t ▲ ▲ 1954 t k F le Z a 1860 t u 30 1942 (Fish Creek Mtns.) 6.4 * t o F l M 6.5 Stillwater ● n t a e ▲ Olinghouse M 6.8 42 u ● 31 1947 Manix (Mojave Desert) 6.5 1 mi ▲ l t S F for human occupancy following 1971 San p 38 32 1950 Fort Sage 5.6 5.5 mi ▲ o ▲ r M 1954 in o 33 1952 Superstition Hills 5.8 2 ± mi t Rainbow Mtn. g e h ● ▲ s l i o 1869 M 6.8 l 1903 34 1952 White Wolf 7.3 33 mi n ▲ l s ▲ ● M 6.4 e Wonder s ▲ F F 35 1954 (East of Arcata) 6.6 * M a a F u u ▲ ▲ a a ▲ l 36 1966 Imperial 3.6 6 mi t l u a t 1954 c l ▲ S t 37 1966 San Andreas (Parkfield) 6.0 23 mi ▲ a Fairview Peak 15 m y ● ▲ ● s 1867 M 7.1 a t ● 38 1966 Unnamed (Truckee) 6.0 10 mi e F M 6.5 m ▲ ▲ a 39 1968 Coyote Creek (Borrego Mtn.) 6.6 u 19 mi l P S t a 40 1971 San Fernando 6.6 9.5 mi n O M 39 ▲ A 41 1975 Galway Lake 5.2 4.2 mi n e d S l D o r w W 1954 42 1975 Cleveland Hill 6.1 3.4 mi ▲ n e u A e H a n e s i il Fernando earthquake t il n l s 43 1975 Brawley 4.7 6.5 mi z G i o F l F a e s g w F o r a e ▲ u F n a 44 1978 Stephens Pass 4.6 1.2 + mi F s o n lt lt u a F t o . l h u a t a 45 1979 Homestead Valley 4.9 0.22 mi l i u t l F C ▲ l l t s a 46 1979 Johnson Valley 5.3 0.9 mi Identify Z u o F C l ▲ a R n t 47 1979 Calaveras (Coyote Lake) 5.7 23.4 mi ? u o e a l l d t a 48 1979 Imperial, Brawley, Rico 6.5 18; 7.8; .6 mi ▲ v g S e e I r y r 49 5.8 s s M 1980 Greenville 3.9 mi 13 a B t C s e e e r m l 50 1980 Hilton Creek 6.2 12 mi ▲ e a o ▲ 1932 e ● r n k 1934 M M e Cedar Mtn.