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Media Nusantara Citra Buy (MNCN IJ) (Maintain)

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Media Nusantara Citra Buy (MNCN IJ) (Maintain) [Indonesia] Media Media Nusantara Citra Buy (MNCN IJ) (Maintain) 3Q20 earnings concall: Outstanding digital TP: 1,350 performance; expecting overall 2021F to get better Upside: 33.0% Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Christine Natasya [email protected] 3Q20 earnings broadly in line 3Q20 bottom line books IDR417.4bn (-17.7% YoY) with estimates MNCN booked 3Q20 net profit of IDR417.4bn (-35.2% QoQ, -17.7% YoY). The company booked a forex loss of IDR56.8bn in 3Q20 (vs. IDR208.7bn forex gain in 2Q20). Cumulatively, MNCN booked net profit of IDR1.3tr in 9M20, in line with our estimate at 74% run-rate against 2020F forecast. On the top-line side, MNCN booked revenue of IDR 1.9tr (-1.2% YoY) in 3Q20. Revenue from TV ad improved by 3% QoQ, albeit still lower than 3Q19 by 10.1%. Nonetheless, this is better than Surya Citra Media’s (SCMA/Buy/TP IDR2,100) ad revenue which declined by 22% YoY in 3Q20. MNCN’s revenue in 9M20 also inline with our estimate. MNCN slowly pays off debt Continue paying off debt YTD, MNCN has paid off debt of c.IDR900bn and plans to pay off another IDR600bn by end of the year. We project the company’s debt-to-equity will decline to 0.2x in 2020F, vs. 0.4x in 2019. We think the reduced debt is positive for the company because it is mostly in USD. We do not expect MNCN to issue huge debt in the future as its studio and equipment are already set. Retain forecasts; Reiterate Maintain Buy recommendation Buy recommendation MNCN is very upbeat on its digital revenue. In 3Q20, digital revenue grew by 50.1% YoY to IDR266.9bn. MNCN’s chairman stated that the growth of RCTI+ has been the fastest among other digital revenue generators as traffic on RCTI+ has been growing very fast. The company also mentioned that it uses RCTI+ platform for audience to vote for live events, such as Indonesian Idol, indicating how audience are very keen about using the platform and potentially ample revenue going forward. Meanwhile, revenue from social media (Facebook, Tiktok & Youtube) will contribute less than c.30% of digital revenue, as opposed to the contribution from RCTI+, combined with other digital revenue, of more than 30%. The company is also very optimistic about its better quality of drama and e-TV mall, which would increase the company’s revenue along with a brighter economic outlook. MNCN owns an e-TV mall business patent (i.e. tagline & format) from Indonesia ministry for 50 years operation. We maintain our Buy recommendation on MNCN and raise our TP to 1,350, which is derived at a higher target PE of 7x (at -0.8 SD of its 7-year mean PE) on our FY21F EPS. Key data (D-1yr=100) JCI MNCN Share Price (11/30/20, IDR) 1,015 Market Cap (IDRbn) 15,275.5 160 Consensus NP (21F, IDRbn) 2,334 Shares Outstanding (mn) 15,049.8 140 120 NP Mirae Asset vs. consensus (21F, %) 0.3 Free Float (%) 53.6 100 EPS Growth (21F, %) 26.8 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 1.2 80 P/E (21F, x) 5.4 52-Week Low (IDR) 695 60 Industry P/E (Current, x) 14.1 52-Week High (IDR) 1,780 40 12/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 10/20 12/20 Benchmark P/E (21F, x) 14.7 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M FY (IDRbn) 2016 2017 2018 2019 12/20F 12/21F Absolute 27.7 24.7 -15.2 Revenue (IDRbn) 6,730.3 7,052.7 7,443.9 8,353.4 8,372.0 9,214.1 Relative 14.9 3.0 -11.4 Gross Profit (IDRbn) 3,855.5 4,382.2 4,618.9 5,322.9 5,196.3 5,719.0 Operating Profit (IDRbn) 2,331.9 2,665.8 2,739.8 3,259.0 3,056.0 3,363.4 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,368.7 1,453.3 1,531.4 2,233.3 1,847.9 2,341.0 EPS (IDR) 102 111 123 180 149 189 BPS (IDR) 654 670 732 863 1,000 1,174 P/E (x) 10.0 9.1 8.3 5.6 6.8 5.4 P/B (x) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 ROE (%) 15.5 16.1 15.5 19.2 13.7 14.8 ROA (%) 9.6 9.7 9.4 12.5 10.1 11.6 Net debt to equity 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 Note: Net profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Indonesia but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. December 1, 2020 Media Nusantara Citra Table 1. Quarterly financial data and 9M20 YoY growth (IDRbn) Item 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Mirae 9M20/ 9M20/ Asset's Mirae Cons FY20F Asset Net revenue 2,365.6 2,019.1 2,082.3 2,015.8 1,951.1 1,995.4 2.3 -1.2 8,372.0 71% 74% Program expense -877.9 -808.3 -643.1 -769.1 -719.4 -823.0 14.4 1.8 Gross profit 1,487.7 1,210.8 1,439.1 1,246.7 1,231.8 1,172.5 -4.8 -3.2 5,196.3 70% 71% G&A expenses -534.1 -442.5 -638.9 -468.0 -476.5 -493.1 3.5 11.4 Operating profit 953.5 768.2 800.2 778.7 755.3 679.3 -10.1 -11.6 3,056.0 72% 72% Forex gain/ loss 6.4 -13.1 48.6 -244.4 208.7 -56.8 NM 334.5 Other income/ expenses -41.3 39.2 -8.7 3.0 -9.4 9.3 NM -76.3 Finance cost -112.9 -114.4 -116.7 -126.3 -118.2 -79.6 -32.7 -30.5 Pre-tax profit 805.7 680.0 723.4 410.9 836.3 552.3 -34.0 -18.8 2,428.5 74% 71% Final tax expense -170.8 -124.2 -146.5 -78.2 -161.4 -110.8 -31.3 -10.8 Minority interests -25.0 -48.4 -8.6 -20.8 -30.7 -24.1 -21.5 -50.3 Net profit 609.9 507.4 568.3 312.0 644.2 417.4 -35.2 -17.7 1,847.9 74% 71% GPM 62.9% 60.0% 69.1% 61.8% 63.1% 58.8% 62.1% OPM 40.3% 38.0% 38.4% 38.6% 38.7% 34.0% 36.5% NPM 25.8% 25.1% 27.3% 15.5% 33.0% 20.9% 22.1% Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Table 2. 9M20 earnings run-rates against Mirae Asset’s and consensus’ full-year estimates (IDRbn) 9M19 9M20 YoY Mirae Asset 9M20/ Consensus 9M20/Cons FY20F Mirae Asset FY20F Net revenue 6,271 5,962 -4.9% 8,372 71% 8,104 74% Gross profit 3,884 3,651 -6.0% 5,196 70% 5,138 71% GPM 61.9% 61.2% 62.1% 63.4% Operating profit 2,459 2,213 -10.0% 3,056 72% 3,056 72% OP margin 39.2% 37.1% 36.5% 37.7% Net profit 1,665 1,374 -17.5% 1,848 74% 1,931 71% NPM 26.6% 23.0% 22.1% 23.8% Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 2 December 1, 2020 Media Nusantara Citra Figure 1. Forward PE band ( x ) 34 +2 Std Dev 29 24 +1 Std Dev 19 Mean PER 14 9 -1 Std Dev 4 08/13 08/14 08/15 08/16 08/17 08/18 08/19 08/20 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia research estimates Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 3 December 1, 2020 Media Nusantara Citra Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) Year-end 31-Dec (Rp bn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F As at 31-Dec (IDRbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Revenue 7,444 8,353 8,372 9,214 Assets Program and content expenses -2,825 -3,030 -3,176 -3,495 Cash 720 631 866 1,695 Gross Profit 4,619 5,323 5,196 5,719 Receivables 2,786 2,917 2,858 3,145 Opex -1,879 -2,064 -2,140 -2,356 Inventories 2,757 2,794 2,909 3,201 Operating Profit 2,740 3,259 3,056 3,363 Others 808 1,040 910 1,009 Other income/(expenses) -636 -320 -627 -326 Total current assets 7,337 7,637 7,815 9,315 Profit before income tax 2,104 2,939 2,429 3,037 Fixed assets - net 5,542 5,682 6,078 6,300 Income tax expenses -498 -587 -461 -577 Long term investments 901 1,870 1,870 1,870 Minority interest -74 -119 -119 -119 Others 2,093 2,210 2,184 2,212 Net profit 1,531 2,233 1,848 2,341 Total non-current assets 9,003 10,200 10,569 10,819 EBITDA 3,126 3,650 3,531 3,843 Total assets 16,340 17,836 18,384 20,134 Liabilities and equity 2018 2019 2020F 2021F ST bank loans and CM 1,387 1,656 1,506 1,356 Growth (%) Trade payables 312 205 271 298 Revenue 5.5 12.2 0.2 10.1 Others current liabilities 455 279 407 435 EBITDA 0.9 16.8 -3.3 8.8 Total current liabilities 2,154 2,139 2,183 2,089 Net profit 5.4 45.8 -17.3 26.7 Long term debt 3,241 2,877 1,527 1,027 Profitability (%) Others 303 294 300 303 Gross margin 62.0 63.7 62.1 62.1 Total non-current liabilities 3,544 3,171 1,828 1,330 Operating margin 36.8 39.0 36.5 36.5 Total liabilities 5,697 5,311 4,011 3,419 EBITDA margin 42.0 43.7 42.2 41.7 Minority interests 777 896 896 896 Shareholders' equity 9,866 11,630 13,478 15,819 Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios Year-end 31-Dec (IDRbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2018 2019 2020F 2021F CF from operation Leverage (X) Net profit 1,531 2,233 1,848 2,341 Current ratio 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.5 Depreciation/amortization 386 391 475 480 Quick ratio 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.4 Change in working capitals -577 -276 11 -553 Debt to equity 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 Others -193 -408 258 -70 Net debt to equity 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 CF from operation 1,148 1,941 2,591 2,198 CF from Investments ROE (%) 15.5 19.2 13.7 14.8 Net capex -591 -520 -888 -693 ROA (%) 9.4 12.5 10.1 11.6 Others -429 -1,057 27 -29 P/E ratio (x) 8.3 5.6 6.8 5.4 CF from investments -1,020 -1,577 -862 -722 P/BV ratio (x) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 CF from financing activity EV/EBITDA (x) 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.1 Increase/(decrease) in debt 810 -95 -1,500 -650 Interest coverage 7.8 7.5 7.1 9.5 Increase/(decrease) in equity -94 0 0 0 EPS (IDR) 123 180 149 189 Dividend payments -209 -214 0 0 Others -412 -149 6 3 CF from financing activity 94 -458 -1,494 -647 Net changes in cash 222 -94 235 829 Beg cash balance 469 720 631 866 Non-cash adjustment 29 4 0 0 Ending cash 720 631 866 1,695 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 4 December 1, 2020 Media Nusantara Citra APPENDIX 1 Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (IDR) MNCN Analyst's TP MNCN IJ 12/1/2020 Buy 1,350 2,500 7/1/2020 Buy 1,130 4/28/2020 Hold 940 2,000 3/17/2020 Hold 970 12/19/2019 Buy 2,250 1,500 7/26/2019 Trading Buy 1,700 1,000 6/26/2019 Buy 1,500 4/26/2019 Trading Buy 1,100 500 2/28/2019 Hold 940 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
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