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Lebanon Weekly Monitor September 20 - September 26, 2021 Week 39

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Lebanon Weekly Monitor September 20 - September 26, 2021 Week 39 LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR SEPTEMBER 20 - SEPTEMBER 26, 2021 WEEK 39 Economy ____________________________________________________________________________ p.2 NEW GOVERNMENT WINS SIGNIFICANT VOTE OF CONFIDENCE ON THE BASIS OF ITS POLICY STATEMENT CONTACTS Lebanon’s new government won the support of a big majority from Parliament last week during a session that debated its policy statement and granted confidence vote to a Cabinet of 24 specialists Treasury & Capital Markets that should begin tackling a series of pressing problems facing the crises-hit economy. Bechara Serhal Also in this issue (961-1) 977421 [email protected] p.3 Lebanon’s real estate sector picked up in the first eight months of 2021 p.4 Imports of petroleum derivatives declined by a yearly 8% in the first five months of 2021 Private Banking p.4 Payment cards down by almost 199 thousand cards in first seven months of the year Toufic Aouad (961-1) 954922 Surveys [email protected] ____________________________________________________________________________ p.5 LEBANON’S RECOVERY PLAN SHOULD BE A COMPREHENSIVE REFORM PROGRAM TO Corporate Banking INTRODUCE IMMEDIATE REMEDIES TO THE UNDERLYING ECONOMIC WEAKNESSES, AS PER Carol Ayat GOLDMAN SACHS (961-1) 959675 According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs on Lebanon, resolving embedded losses in the [email protected] financial system will be the first challenge. Mohamad Baydoun (961-1) 959703 Also in this issue [email protected] p.5 Lebanon’s economy to contract by 7.9% in 2021, as per Bloomberg p.6 Lebanon ranks 95th in Economic Freedom of the World, says Fraser Institute Marketing and Communications Jean Traboulsi Corporate News (961-1) 977350 ____________________________________________________________________________ [email protected] p.7 GASOLINE PRICES IS NOW SUBSIDIZED AT LP 14,000, YET STILL BELOW MARKET RATE Lebanon's Energy Ministry raised the gasoline prices by around 15%. Also in this issue RESEARCH p.7 Coordinated by Berytech, THE NEXT SOCIETY launches an Internationalization program for Lebanese start-ups p.7 AUB is branching to Cyprus and Dubai, main campus to remain in Beirut Dr. Marwan Barakat p.8 Sayrafa transacted a daily US$ 740k in week 17 (961-1) 977409 p.8 Founder Institute and Beirut Digital District offer fellowship to Levant Virtual Summer 2021 [email protected] program for free Salma Saad Baba Markets In Brief (961-1) 977346 ____________________________________________________________________________ [email protected] p.9 EQUITY AND BOND PRICES ON THE RISE PARALLEL TO CABINET CONFIDENCE VOTE Following the Parliament’s ratification of the new cabinet, which paves the way for a long-delayed economic Farah Nahlawi recovery plan and offers an opportunity to resume IMF talks, while international bondholders are showing (961-1) 959747 readiness to work closely with Lebanese authorities to find a “sustainable solution” on debt, and along with new oil [email protected] subsidy cuts, the country’s capital markets posted this week extended bond price gains for the third consecutive week since cabinet breakthrough and strong equity price rebounds, while the black FX market saw the Lebanese Zeina Labban pound plummet against the US dollar. In details, bond prices rose to 15.88 cents-18.0 cents per US dollar on Friday, (961-1) 952426 recovering from lows of 12-13 cents per US dollar seen prior to cabinet formation, mainly on bets that the positive [email protected] developments on the domestic political front would lead to constructive negotiations with bondholders. On the equity market, the BSE price index jumped by 6% after the confidence vote and following a decline in the market Michele Sakha value of bank US dollars on the parallel market. Finally, the black FX market saw the LP plummet against the (961-1) 977102 [email protected] US dollar to LP/US$ 15,700-LP/US$ 15,750 amid extended oil subsidy cuts and awaiting the new government’s recovery plan. LEBANON MARKETS: SEPTEMBER 20 - SEPTEMBER 26, 2021 Money Market BSE Equity Market LP Tbs Market Eurobond Market ⬆ LP Exchange Market CDS Market - ⬌⬇ ⬆ Week 39 September 20 - September 26, 2021 ⬇ 1 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] SEPTEMBER 20 - SEPTEMBER 26, 2021 WEEK 39 ECONOMY ______________________________________________________________________________ NEW GOVERNMENT WINS SIGNIFICANT VOTE OF CONFIDENCE ON THE BASIS OF ITS POLICY STATEMENT Lebanon’s new government won the support of a big majority from Parliament last week during a session that debated its policy statement and granted confidence vote to a Cabinet of 24 specialists that should begin tackling a series of pressing problems facing the crises-hit economy. Out of the 100 lawmakers who voted following a morning and evening parliamentary session, 85 MPs voted for the government and 15 against. The remaining 17 lawmakers were not present during the vote. The New Government Policy statement included the following: • Resuming immediate negotiations with the IMF to reach an agreement on a support loan from the Fund, based on a short and medium-term financial program that stems from the recovery plan after updating it with the implementation of reforms in all areas that have become known and according to urgent priorities and in a way that achieves the public interest, and work to complete the economic plan and commit to implement it with the BDL after its approval by the Government. • Developing a plan to reform the banking sector and restructure it as necessary and revitalize the economic cycle in a way that contributes to financing the private sector, with a priority given to guaranteeing the rights of depositors. • Seeking, in cooperation with the parliament, to ratify a Capital Control law, while drafting a law that would address the financial and banking conditions after the October 17, 2019 events, especially those related to transferring funds abroad and the return of funds obtained from corruption crimes. • Resuming negotiations with creditors to agree on a mechanism to restructure the public debt in a manner that serves Lebanon’s interests and does not place heavy burdens on the state and decide the best way to use the funds received from the Special Drawing Rights in a way that ensures sustainable use. • Initiating the French Initiative and committing to all its provisions with full transparency and recommendations for reform, recovery and reconstruction, and proceeding with the update and development of the financial recovery plan and the completion of its economic reform policy that was presented at the Cedre Conference after re-examining the list of projects of the CIP and benefiting from the recommendations of the economic study of McKinsey, especially in terms of supporting all productive sectors to shift from a rentier economy to a productive economy at large. • Determination to adjust salaries and wages in the public sector with all its characteristics, on the basis of a study prepared by the MoF that considers the financial resources of the state. • Reducing tax evasion, amending the Public Accounting Law, and expediting the completion of a new customs legislation and approval of the comprehensive strategy for customs reforms and its implementation program. • Engaging to complete the Government general budget for the year 2022, with an emphasis on including reform items with respect to public finances. • Revisiting the current support policy and moving towards a social policy capable of bridging social gaps. Week 39 September 20 - September 26, 2021 2 SEPTEMBER 20 - SEPTEMBER 26, 2021 WEEK 39 _________________________________________________________________________ LEBANON’S REAL ESTATE SECTOR PICKED UP IN THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF 2021 The real estate sector in Lebanon rose slightly in the first eight months of this year after witnessing a slowdown phase earlier as the new payment methods required are higher prices in local US dollars or in fresh US dollars. The upward trend in local dollars is tied to the growing willingness among Lebanese depositors to resort to safe haven in order to avoid further haircuts on their financial placements. In details, on the demand side, the number of sales operations went up from 45,047 operations in the first eight months of 2020 to 58,053 operations in the first eight months of 2021 or 28.9%, according to the latest statistics published by the General Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre. In parallel, the value of property sales transactions posted an incline of 2.2% year-on-year to reach a total of US$ 8,576 million during the same period of 2021. Most regions recorded increases in the value of sales transactions, with the most significant movements coming as follows: North (+108.7%), Bekaa (+22.2%), Nabatiyeh (+20.5%) and the South (+19.6%). In this context, the average sales value retreated from US$ 186,230 in the first eight months of 2020 to US$ 147,724 in the corresponding period of this year. As for the breakdown of the value of property sales, Beirut continued to capture the highest share over the period with a share of 27.5%, followed by Baabda with 19.4%, Metn with a share of 16.0% and Keserouan with a share of 12.0%. Moreover, property taxes followed a rising trend as well, these ameliorating from US$ 356.8 million in the first eight months of 2020 to US$ 418.0 million, a yearly rise
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