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India Daily, September 14, 2016

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India Daily, September 14, 2016 INDIA DAILY September 14, 2016 India 12-Sep 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Sensex 28,354 (1.5) 0.7 7.4 Nifty 8,716 (1.7) 0.5 7.5 Contents Global/Regional indices Dow Jones 18,067 (1.4) (2.7) 2.2 Daily Alerts Nasdaq Composite 5,155 (1.1) (1.5) 6.4 Results FTSE 6,666 (0.5) (3.6) 12.5 Coal India: Weak realizations give a shaky start Nikkei 16,627 (0.6) (1.7) 4.8 Hang Seng 23,216 (0.3) 2.0 13.9 Tata Steel: In line; improves across geographies KOSPI 1,999 0.4 (2.5) 1.4 Reliance Power: Distorted earnings Value traded – India Cash (NSE+BSE) 244 250 238 National Aluminium Co.: A weak quarter Derivatives (NSE) 3,885 3,215 2,600 Balkrishna Industries: Recovery gaining ground Deri. open interest 3,010 2,767 2,354 Change in Reco Forex/money market Vedanta: Cairn merger - a done deal; upgrade to ADD from REDUCE Change, basis points Mahindra CIE Automotive: Acquisition of Bill Forge a right fit 12-Sep 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Rs/US$ 67.1 (4) 25 (19) Sector alerts 10yr govt bond, % 7.2 - (2) (56) Banks: Unchanged trends; investment cycle still anemic Net investment (US$ mn) 9-Sep MTD CYTD Insurance: ICICI Prudential Life: High growth, moderate profitability FIIs (51) 289 6,397 Economy alerts MFs (33) (97) 1,428 Top movers Economy: Benign inflation dynamics keep rate cut hopes alive Change, % Best performers 12-Sep 1-day 1-mo 3-mo PNB IN Equity 137.2 (5.3) 11.6 52.6 CBK IN Equity 297.0 (4.6) 16.1 50.6 POWF IN Equity 118.4 (5.2) 6.6 46.2 JPA IN Equity 11.3 (7.0) (0.4) 41.5 VEDL IN Equity 161.3 (5.8) (2.9) 40.6 Worst performers AL IN Equity 83.5 (4.4) (3.7) (20.5) IDEA IN Equity 82.8 (1.0) (11.9) (17.0) TECHM IN Equity 463.9 1.2 (6.0) (12.0) WPRO IN Equity 480.4 (0.1) (11.7) (11.5) INFO IN Equity 1054.0 1.8 (0.8) (10.3) Kotak Institutional Equities Research [email protected] . Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0000 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. REDUCE Coal India (COAL) Metals & Mining SEPTEMBER 14, 2016 RESULT Coverage view: Cautious Weak realizations give a shaky start. Coal India reported 20% yoy decline in net Price (`): 330 income for 1QFY17 as meager 3% yoy growth in volumes was not able to absorb 9% Target price (`): 315 yoy decline in realizations despite substantial reduction in provision for overburden BSE-30: 28,354 removal. Continued slump in power and industrial offtake will keep volume growth in check even as an impending wage revision will keep FY2017 financials under pressure. Maintain REDUCE with a revised target price of `315 (versus `320 previously). Company data and valuation summary Coal India Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2016 2017E 2018E 52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 350-272 EPS (Rs) 22.7 22.1 25.6 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 2,087.2 EPS growth (%) 4.3 (2.5) 15.8 Shareholding pattern (%) P/E (X) 14.6 15.0 12.9 Promoters 79.6 Sales (Rs bn) 793.3 844.4 908.6 FIIs 8.1 Net profits (Rs bn) 143.2 139.6 161.6 MFs 1.7 EBITDA (Rs bn) 181.8 176.1 191.6 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M EV/EBITDA (X) 9.4 9.6 8.6 Absolute (2.2) 7.8 (1.0) ROE (%) 35.6 38.0 42.6 Rel. to BSE-30 (2.9) 1.2 (10.6) Div. Yield (%) 8.3 4.7 5.4 1QFY17 starts with a 19% yoy decline in earnings despite a substantial reduction in provisions. CIL reported a 19% yoy decline in net income at `30.6 bn (KIE `31.6 bn) on account of weak revenue performance (-6% yoy) and despite 67% reduction in provision for overburden removal during the quarter. Revenue weakness was on account of modest volume growth (+3% yoy) and was dragged significantly down by a 9% yoy reduction in blended realizations at `1,336/ton. Weak realizations were on account of (1) 6% yoy reduction in notified prices, and (2) 28% yoy reduction in e-auction realizations at `1,570/ton. The weakness in realizations would have been worse but for an improved sales mix (higher e-auction and beneficiated coal sales) and a price increase effected from June 2016. Trends point towards continued weakness in earnings with rising costs and weak offtake. The trends on volumes and pricing offer little comfort on revenue growth for the remaining nine months, with July and August reporting flat-to-declining volumes, dragging growth down to 0.1% YTD. Lead indicators on e-auction prices offer little comfort with premium over notified price remaining below 20% for July 2016, even though rising prices of imported coal may help improve prospects in the months going forward. On the cost side, the impact of wage revision will likely accrue from 2QFY17 and rising diesel cost will start impacting overall production cost. Our earnings estimates for FY2017E currently factor in (1) 3.6% growth in volumes, (2) blended realizations of `1,484/ton supported by full benefit of increase in notified prices and improvement in e-auction realizations, and (3) increase in wage cost of 17% for FY2017E. Maintain REDUCE rating with revised target price of `315/share. Murtuza Arsiwalla Weak volume trends, an impending wage revision and the risk of continued weakness in e- [email protected] auction realizations may keep Coal India’s earnings subdued for FY2017E. Our target price is Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0870 based on 10X P/E on June 2018E core earnings. Dividend yield remains the only positive in the Ajinkya Bhat near-term while a reversal in spot auction prices or better demand for special auctions remains [email protected] an upside risk. We maintain the REDUCE rating with a revised target price of `315/share (versus Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0888 `320 previously). We have revised our earnings downwards by 3.9/3.7% for FY2017E/18E to factor in lower volume growth and realizations though offset by lower provision for overburden. Kotak Institutional Equities Research [email protected] Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0000 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Coal India Metals & Mining Key highlights of 1QFY17 result Volumes up 3% yoy. Coal India reported sales volumes of 133 mn ton in 1QFY17, up 3% yoy. Key laggards were CCL (-9.5% yoy) and WCL (-9.6% yoy) which were compensated by strong growth in NCL (+11.3% yoy) and MCL (+11.7% yoy) during the quarter. Volume growth is much short of the 12% CAGR target set by CIL to achieve its billion ton vision, and is reflective of the sedate demand from the power sector. Even on YTD FY2017 basis, dispatch volumes are flat yoy indicating continued sluggishness. As highlighted previously, CIL and the government are likely to re-visit their billion ton aspirations (based on unconfirmed media reports), noting (1) the absence of adequate demand from both power and industrial sectors, and (2) record inventory levels that make it difficult to continue to build stockpiles of coal. We have long stated that consumption of a billion tons by FY2020 appears aggressive as the corresponding ‘clean-up’ of the power distribution system may not move at the same pace. Blended realizations down yoy, but partially supported by volume mix. Coal India reported blended realization of `1,336/ton, down 9% yoy. A steep decline of 6% yoy in raw coal realizations as well as 28% yoy decline in e-auction coal realizations was supported by favorable volume mix. Both e-auction and beneficiated coal sales command better realizations than raw coal. Their increased share in volume mix partially contained the decline in blended realizations. The weakness in notified prices of coal is surprising especially given the revision in notified prices of coal with effect from June 2016, and likely reflects deterioration in average grade of raw coal. Impending wage revision will pose a further challenge. Wage costs at Coal India were relatively contained in 1QFY17 with 7% yoy increase but flat qoq. The full impact of wage revision will be likely seen from 2QFY17. We note that an element of increase in employee cost would likely be on account of revaluation of employee related liabilities under new Ind-AS. Our estimates currently factor in 17% wage inflation in FY2017E followed by 3.5% increase in FY2018E. We highlight that initial provisioning will likely be lower and actual employee cost for FY2017E would be a function of the final settlement, both in terms of cost as well as timing. Sharp reduction in provision for overburden removal. Coal India reported a sharp 67% yoy decline in provision for overburden removal, though not entirely eliminated as was anticipated under the new Ind-AS. We seek clarity from the management on the quantum of overburden removal and the accounting treatment of the same going forward. KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3 Metals & Mining Coal India Exhibit 1: Earnings were impacted by lower notified prices amid subdued demand as well as lower e-auction realizations Interim financials of Coal India Ltd, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn) Growth (%) 1QFY17 1QFY17E 1QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17E 1QFY16 4QFY16 FY2017E FY2016 (% change) Profit & Loss Net sales 177,961 182,932 189,558 207,595 (2.7) (6.1) (14.3) 821,894 756,443 8.7 Accretion in stock (40) (1,948) (5,931) 21,864 885 14,442 Employee expense (76,465) (77,090) (71,852) (75,902) (0.8) 6.4 0.7 (345,900) (296,598) Social overhead (425) (1,545) (1,773) (3,898) (72.5) (76.0) (89.1) (10,903) (10,821) Power & Fuel (6,225) (6,338) (5,882) (6,433) (1.8) 5.8 (3.2) (26,963) (25,035) Contractual expense (28,006) (25,350) (24,903) (34,232) 10.5 12.5 (18.2) (121,089) (111,292) OBR adjustment (2,331) (9,221) (7,091) (13,195) (74.7) (67.1) (82.3) (27,505) (28,114) Consumption of stores and
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