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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS April 1941 And, in December, Orders for 1,840,000 Pairs, Based on Tent

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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS April 1941 And, in December, Orders for 1,840,000 Pairs, Based on Tent APRIL 1941 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE WASHINGTON VOLUME 21 NUMBER 4 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE JESSE H. JONES, Secretary BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE CARROLL L. WILSON, Director SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A publication of the DIVISION OF BUSINESS REVIEW MIL TON GILBERT, Chief JOHN D. WILSON, In Charge, Survey of Current Business Volume 21 APRIL 1941 Number 4 CONTENTS Page Page The business situation ........................................... 3 Figure 7.-Indexes of cost of living, 1939-41 ....................... 8 Further production ~a in ....................................... 4 Fi~ure 8.-Weekly indexes of wholesale prices, January 2, 1937- Consumer buyin~ continues high .............................. 6 March 22, 1941. ...........................................•....• 9 Report on 1940 profits •......................•................... 6 Fi~ure 9.-PercentaJte chang,es in wholesale prices of selected com­ modities, May 8, 1937-August 19, 1939, and August 19, 1939- March 15, 1941 .................................................• 10 SPECIAL ARTICLES Figure 10.-Indexes of daily spot market prices, August 31, 1939- March 27, 1941. ................................................ 11 Recent price developments ....................................... 8 Fi~ure 11.-Total exports to and g,eneral imports from non-European The American shipping situation ................................. 13 areas, 1939-41 ............................................•...... 13 FiAure 12.-American owned (Aovernment and private) steam and CHARTS motor merchant vessels of 1,000 gross tons and over eng,aAed in or assigned to ocean trade in the quarters ended December 31, 1938- Figure I.-Monthly business indicators, 1936-41 ................... 2 December 31, 1940 ........................................... .. 14 Fi~ure 2.-Indexes of the value of manufacturers' new orders, ship- ments, and inventories, 1929-41 ................................ 3 STATISTICAL DATA Figure 3.-Index of production of nonferrous metals and products, New or revised series: adjusted for seasonal variations, 1936-41 ........................ 4 Table 14.-Exports by grand divisions and countries, economic Figure 4.-Index of total freight-car loadings, adjusted for seasonal classes, and commodities-revised statistics for 1939............ 17 variations, 1936-41 ............................................. 4 Table 15.-Imports by ~rand divisions and countries, economic FiAure 5.-Indexes of selected consumer purchases, adjusted for classes, and commodities-revised statistics for 1939.......... 18 seasonal variations, 1938-41. .................................... 6 Monthly business statistics....................................... 19 Figure 6.-Quarterly profits of large industrial corporations, 1934-40. 7 General index ......................................... Inside back cover Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BusiNESS S2 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 15 cents; weekly, 5 cents. Foreign subscriptions, S3.50. Price of the 1940 Supplement is 40 cenu. Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. :~oztiOI-41--I 1 2 St'HVEY OF CURHE.\'T BFSL'\ESS April 1\l-!1 Monthly Business Indicators, 1936-41 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION * 160 lVOLUME, 1935-39= 100) 140 120 100 80 '' I 1936 1937 1938 IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION" CASH INCOME FROM FARM MARKETINGs·• 250[(1935-39= 100) i ~:: ee~ ,oolc . ---~~ 200 ---~~-- ---~-~-~---~ i:: I 150-- 70 ~ - - ~ 6 0 L....... -~-'--'-'·',w.l i .;..c.' ll.J.J' I i'"-''""""'-'-'' ·...:..1 .J..i.l .;.J.' ~'"'-'-U..U....U.U...:..J...W.'-l.l.....-'-'---.-J 1941 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED* 140 (1923-25= 100) I 125 (Vto.LUE,!923-25=100 3- MONTH ~~OV!NG AVER~GE) 1 12 0 f-----+----~--~--_J__ ______: -----j'E--- _;.. EMPLOYMENT t I (ADJUSTED) 1 I 00 1---;;t!""--d--?----\-\'--- 75 COTTON CONSUMPTION * PRICES OF 350 INDUSTRIAL STOCKS 1200 (1935-39=1oo) I 160 150 f----+--+-----1- 140 120 1941 * ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATIONS e EXCLUSIVE OF GOVERNMENTAL PAYMENTS Figure 1. April 1941 SPR\'EY OF Cl'RRENT Bl'Sf~ESS 3 The Business Situation was mHl<'l"tak(~n; a priorities critieallist containing 218 BusiNESS activity eoutimwcl to move ahead in ikms wns mack public; plans were formulated for ob­ March under the forced draft providPd by the <lPfense tnining information on innntories of various metals program. Notwithstanding the growing tightnPss of lwld by both producers nnd consumers; maximum supply in many sec.tors of the <>eonomy, the rat<• of prin·s \\'Nt• issued for aluminum and zinc scrap and (•xpansion was substantial, eonsi<lPring Uw hi1-d1 kvPl renwlt; a UC\\' labor IU<'dintion board wtts established> of o1wmtions aln•ady attained in rect'nt months. ln­ nnd sjwcinl <liYisions of the Ofllce of Production ~Ianagc­ du:;;trin1 output again ttdvnnecd to a new all-time high, nwnt, W<'I"P crpnted to organize adequate supplies of with growing output in ddense industri<'S nmking n skillt'd labor nnrl to direet conservation, reclamation, signifinant coutribu tion to tho ris<~. Const nwtion nc­ and substitution of raw matPrials. tivity also inen•ased under impetus from lwa\-y plant Heavier Shipments and Orders in February. nud n·sidential building dPmand. ElPct ri(~ powPr ou L­ pu t nlld freight loadings were higher on an adj nsted The tight supply position in many mnrkets was lmsis, rdlPeting industrial gains nnd, in ilw cmse of ear­ partly responsible for a co11tinued rise in the volume loadings, an unusually hug<' mov<'mt•nt of coal arHl on•. of JH'W orders plnc('(l with mnm1fneturcrs during Feb- Hdail trad(~ reports itHliented the mniutenaiH".e of exee<>.dingly favontblc stth•s nJlUlll('S, a.lthough lwavy JANUARY 1939" 100 DECEMBER 31, 1938" 100 200 150 ineonw-tax payment.s appan'ntly limit,e(l tlH' month's ga.tns. 190 145 No devdopmt•nt of the month eontainnd more far­ reaching implications for business thnn passage of the 18 0 ~------- - -- 140 LPaso-Leml Act, which inereas<'d rkf<'nso appropriations nnd contract authorizations thus far madn in fisenl y<>ru· Hl41 to $29,000,000,000. With the addition of 170 135 other hills pt>nding, mtd existing British ordt'rs, the ddt•nse program now nntieipate<l through fiscal .Y<'ar 160 --- 130 1\)42 was announced to total morethau$40,000,000,000. NEW ORDERS • I / ( UFT SCALE:) !J Of course, such a sum may exec>ed what will n.ctually 150 -- _,- -- -· ,,, .. .1: he Pxpended in this periml, for ability to spend rests t' upon the power to produce. N everthdess, output of 140 ----- defense material is moving up rapidly, March Army I' and Navy expenditure being about $728,000,000 130 115 as compared to $576,000,000 in February mul $153,- 000,000 last June. \Vith the usc• of lend-lease funds, 120 ---------~- -----110 new construction of Governmc11t-owned manufacturing fneilities for defensn will lw expanded another :~8 per­ 110 105 cent at a cost of $752,000,000; so an eventual output of dPfense materinl costing $1,500,000,000 to $2,000,- 000,000 monthly may be expected. The magnitude of this investment is demonstrated by comparison with the gross investment in the peak year 1929 on 90 --- --- ]_~-----~- 95 <lurnble goods, both producer and consumer, of upproxi­ 8o~·~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~LLLL~9o mittely $2,100,000,000 monthly. 1939 1940 1941 Despite the fact that defense output in the present D.O. 4{-1/0 Fit,ture 2.-Indexes of the Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Shipments, phase of the program is still relatively small, evi~ and Inventories, 1939-41 (U. S. Department of Commerce). dence of increasing supply difficulties accumulated ;"\:OTE.-The right scale (im·entories) is douhle that for the ldt scale (IWw order' and shipments). The two scales were used to take into account the uitkrcnce in dollar during the month. These were reflected in the sharpest volume rcpresent.L'cl by the index nmnbers. increase in sensitive commodity prices since Septem­ ber 1939 (discussed in the article on price develop­ ruary, buyers seeking to assure delivery many months ments on page 8 of this issue) and in the broaden­ hence. Particularly was this true of machinery and ing of controls found necessary by defense authorities iron and steel, both of which contributed heavily to During March the complete allocation of aluminum 3, 6-percent advance in the Department of Commerce 4 SURVEY OF CURRE:KT BeSI~ESS April 1941 new orders index, leaving the month's new business 84 in thl'se lines rose again during March, and though the percent above that of a year ago. usual seasonal increase in many other lines was not Accompanying this further expansion of new orders possible, expansion of output in the aggregate con­ was a sharp rise of about 7 percent in February ship­ tinued a1; about the same rate as in the previous month. ments of manufactured goods. Part of the larger move­ In the mdal industries, wher~e' most gains arc limited ment was seasonal, especially in such consumers' goods to the introduction of new capacity, activity is expand­ as textiles and foods. However, shipment of defense ing little. Sted output in ~Iareh was 7,146,000 tons, materials was also in much heavier volume as iron and the largest in history, but a smaller advance than is steel and their products, transportation equipment usual. ,\ctivity climbed to a peak of 99.8 perecnt of (including aircraft and some ordnance material), and capacity during the month, the highest operating rate all types of machinery advanced. Despite this expan­ since ~lay 1929. Output of most nonferrous metals sion, however, shipments failed to match incoming also rose somewhat, but the increase on a daily-average business for the tenth consecutive month and order basis was small. Substantial addition to aluminum backlogs of durable goods increased a further 11 percent. producing plant, where the tightest supply situation is now to be found, is not expected until late in the 250 (1935-39 = 100) second quarter. Lumber and paper outputs were heavier, though the former, starting from an already high levd, failed to realize the usual rise of about 10 pereent.
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