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Canadian Natural Gas Market Review Study No. 158 June 2016 CANADIAN ENERGY CANADIAN NATURAL GAS RESEARCH MARKET REVIEW INSTITUTE Canadian Energy Research Institute | Relevant • Independent • Objective CANADIAN NATURAL GAS MARKET REVIEW Canadian Natural Gas Market Review Authors: Laura Johnson Paul Kralovic* Dinara Millington Jon Rozhon ISBN 1-927037-42-3 Copyright © Canadian Energy Research Institute, 2016 Sections of this study may be reproduced in magazines and newspapers with acknowledgement to the Canadian Energy Research Institute June 2016 Printed in Canada Front photo courtesy of: istockphoto.com Acknowledgements: The authors of this report would like to extend their thanks and sincere gratitude to all CERI staff involved in the production and editing of the material, including but not limited to Allan Fogwill and Megan Murphy. *Paul Kralovic is Director, Frontline Economics Inc. ABOUT THE CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. We strive to build bridges between scholarship and policy, combining the insights of scientific research, economic analysis, and practical experience. For more information about CERI, visit www.ceri.ca CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, Alberta T2L 2A6 Email: [email protected] Phone: 403-282-1231 Canadian Natural Gas Market Review iii Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................. v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................... ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 2 NATURAL GAS BACKGROUND ................................................................... 3 Current State of Canadian Natural Gas Supply and Demand ............................................ 3 Canadian Supply ........................................................................................................... 3 Canadian Natural Gas Production .......................................................................... 4 Canadian Natural Gas Imports ............................................................................... 10 Canadian Natural Gas Disposition ............................................................................... 12 Canadian Domestic Demand .................................................................................. 13 Canadian Natural Gas Exports ............................................................................... 16 Current State of US Natural Gas Supply and Demand ....................................................... 17 US Supply ..................................................................................................................... 17 US Natural Gas Production .................................................................................... 18 US Natural Gas Imports.......................................................................................... 22 US Natural Gas Disposition .......................................................................................... 26 US Domestic Demand ............................................................................................ 26 US Natural Gas Exports .......................................................................................... 28 Current Natural Gas Prices in Canada and the US ............................................................. 31 Wholesale Prices .......................................................................................................... 33 Retail Prices .................................................................................................................. 39 CHAPTER 3 CANADIAN NATURAL GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK ..................... 45 Canadian Natural Gas Supply Outlook ............................................................................... 45 Western Canadian Gas Supply ..................................................................................... 51 Eastern Canadian Gas Supply ....................................................................................... 57 Canadian Natural Gas Demand Outlook ............................................................................ 65 Residential Sector ........................................................................................................ 66 Commercial Sector ....................................................................................................... 67 Industrial Sector ........................................................................................................... 67 Natural Gas Use in the Oil Sands Industry ................................................................... 69 Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids Use in the Petrochemical Industry ................... 70 Electricity Sector .......................................................................................................... 70 Natural Gas Demand Outlook ...................................................................................... 73 Canadian Natural Gas Storage ........................................................................................... 76 Canadian Environment and Greenhouse Gas Policies ....................................................... 79 Federal Government of Canada ................................................................................... 80 Provincial Governments ............................................................................................... 81 June 2016 iv Canadian Energy Research Institute CHAPTER 4 US NATURAL GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK ................................. 87 US Natural Gas Supply Outlook ......................................................................................... 87 Mountain...................................................................................................................... 88 South Central ............................................................................................................... 90 East ............................................................................................................................... 93 US Natural Gas Demand Outlook....................................................................................... 97 US Environmental and Greenhouse Gas Policies ............................................................... 101 US Federal Government ............................................................................................... 102 California ...................................................................................................................... 103 Other States’ Renewable Portfolio Standards ............................................................. 104 CHAPTER 5 CANADIAN NATURAL GAS EXPORTS AND IMPORTS – PIPELINES AND LNG PROJECTS ..................................................................................................... 107 Natural Gas Exports ........................................................................................................... 107 Major Natural Gas Export Pipelines in Canada ............................................................ 109 Canadian Exports Outlook ........................................................................................... 119 Natural Gas Imports ........................................................................................................... 121 Natural Gas Imports Outlook ....................................................................................... 124 LNG Projects ....................................................................................................................... 125 US LNG Exports ............................................................................................................ 125 Canadian LNG ............................................................................................................... 130 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................... 133 APPENDIX A PRODUCTION FORECAST AND SUPPLY COST METHODOLOGY ................... 135 Production Inputs .............................................................................................................. 135 Cost Inputs ......................................................................................................................... 136 Other Economic Assumptions ............................................................................................ 137 APPENDIX B SUPPLY STUDY AREAS .............................................................................. 139 June 2016 Canadian Natural Gas Market Review v List of Figures E.1 Dry Shale Gas Production ............................................................................................ xii E.2 Canadian Supply and Demand Outlook ....................................................................... xiv 2.1 Natural Gas Resources Estimates ...............................................................................
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