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An Examination of the Factors Affecting Relative and Absolute Sea Level in Coastal British Columbia

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An Examination of the Factors Affecting Relative and Absolute Sea Level in Coastal British Columbia An Examination of the Factors Affecting Relative and Absolute Sea Level in Coastal British Columbia R. E. Thomson, B. D. Bornhold and S. Mazzotti Fisheries and Oceans Canada Institute of Ocean Sciences 9860 West Saanich Road Sidney, British Columbia V8L 4B2 2008 Canadian Technical Report of Hydrography and Ocean Sciences 260 Canadian Tuhnical RelJort of Hydrography and,Ocean Sciences Tcx:hnical reports contain scientirK: and technical information that contributes to. e.o;isting knowledge but whi<:h i$ not normally appropriate for primary literature. The $ubjec::t matter is related generally to progrlnlS and interest$ ofthe Ooean Science and Survey$ (OSS) seetor o( the Department o( Fisheries and Oceans. Technical reports may be cited llS (ull puhliClitions. The correct citation appears above the abstrlct o(each report. Each repon is abstracted in Aquatic Sdmus and Fishtries Ahstraru and indexed in the Department'$ annual inde/[ to scientific and technical publications. Technical reports are produced regionally but are numbcred nationally. Requests for individual reports will be filled by the issuing t'Stablishmellt listed 011 til<: front cover and title page. Qut o( stock reports will be supplied (or a fee by commercial agents. Regional and headquirtcu eslliUlishlTlcllt$ ()f ocean Seieuce and Surveys oeased pUblication of their vatious report series as of December 1981. A complete listing of these publications is published in the Canadian Journal of Fuhtrks and Aquatic St:jm~s, Volume 39: looe.o; to Publications 1982. Theeunerll series. which begins with repon number I, was initiated in January 1982. Rappori (cdmiquc calladiell sur ('hydrographie el les sciences oceaniques les lapportS techniques conliennent des renscignell'lCnl$ scientirlQUes et techniques qui constituent unc contribution aux connaissaoces aauelles. mais qui ne sont pas normalement approprib pour la pUblication dans unjoumal scientirlQue. l..e $u;"l at 8inCralemcntli~aux programmes el inltrtu l'Iu service des Sciences et Ievts oceaniques (SLO) du ministr.re des Piches et des OCeans. les rapports techniques peuvenl eire dtes comme des publications compltles. l..e litre exact parail au-dessus du resumidechaque rapport. Us rapporl$techniquc:s sont rtsumes dans la rcvue Ri:;umis des srimces aquQliqllcs tt holjroliqllcs, et ils sont classes dan$ l'indelt annud des pUblications SCienlirlques et lechniques du Ministtre. Les rlpports techniques sont produits i I'cchelon.Rgional, mais numerotc$ i I'cchelon national. Les dtmandes de apportS SClont $atisfailcs par I'Ctabliuement auleur donI Ie nom figure sur la couverture ella paSe du titre. Les rapports cpuises seront (ournis contre retribution l)af des agents commerciaux. Les elablissernents des Sciences ellevcs oceaniques dansles regions et i I'adminis­ (ration cenlrale Onl «sst de publicr leurs divcrses series de rapports en dtcembre 198 r. Unc liste complete de ces publications figure dans Ie volume 39, Index des publications 1982 ~u JQumal conadien des st:iellr't's Iralicutiqlles tf aquQtiqllcs. La strie actuelle II commend .vec la publication du rapport numcro I en janvkr 1982. Canadian Technical Report of Hydrography and Ocean Sciences 260 2008 AN EXAMINATION OF THE FACTORS AFFECTING RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE SEA LEVEL IN COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA by Richard E. Thomson1, Ph.D., FRSC Brian D. Bornhold2, Ph.D., P. Geo. Stephane Mazzotti3, Ph.D. 1Fisheries and Oceans Canada Institute of Ocean Sciences 9860 West Saanich Rd Sidney, British Columbia V8L 4B2 2Coastal and Ocean Resources, Inc. 214 – 9865 West Saanich Road Sidney, British Columbia V8L 5Y8 3Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada 9860 West Saanich Road Sidney, British Columbia V8L 4B2 © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2008. HTML version: Cat. No. Fs97-18/260E-HTML ISBN 0-711-6764 PDF version: Cat. No. Fs97-18/260E-PDF ISBN 0-711-6764 Correct citation for this publication: Thomson, R.E., Bornhold, B.D., and Mazzotti, S. 2008. An examination of the factors affecting relative and absolute sea level in coastal British Columbia. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr.Ocean Sci. 260: v + 49 p. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................iii ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................................................iv RÉSUMÉ .......................................................................................................................................................................iv PREFACE .....................................................................................................................................................................iv 1.0. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................................1 2.0. GLOBAL SEA LEVEL...........................................................................................................................................2 2.1. GLOBAL EUSTATIC MEAN SEA LEVEL CHANGE ...................................................................... 2 2.2. REGIONAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE .............................................................................................. 8 2.2.1. Steric Sea Level............................................................................................................................................8 2.2.2. Oceanic Circulation.....................................................................................................................................8 2.2.3. Atmospheric Pressure and Wind Velocity....................................................................................................9 2.2.4. Geodynamics................................................................................................................................................9 3.0. SEA LEVEL OBSERVATIONS FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA ..............................................................................11 3.1. ISOSTATIC EFFECTS................................................................................................................. 11 3.2. TECTONIC EFFECTS ................................................................................................................. 12 3.3. SEDIMENTARY EFFECTS / FRASER DELTA SUBSIDENCE.......................................................... 15 3.4. REGIONAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE .............................................................................................. 17 4.0 FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE............................................................................................................................21 4.1. GLOBAL SEA LEVEL PROJECTIONS .......................................................................................... 22 4.2. REGIONAL EFFECTS................................................................................................................. 23 4.2.1. Atmospheric Circulation Effects ..................................................................................................................23 4.2.2. Regional Long-term Steric Effects for British Columbia .............................................................................25 4.2.3. Predicted Vertical Land Movements on the British Columbia Coast ..........................................................30 4.2.4. Predicted changes in ENSO events ..............................................................................................................31 5.0. EXTREME EVENTS AND SEA LEVEL ...............................................................................................................32 5.1. OBSERVATIONS OF EXTREME EVENTS FOR THE COASTS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, WASHINGTON AND OREGON ......................................................................................................... 32 5.2. PREDICTED EXTREME EVENT FREQUENCY AND MAGNITUDE ................................................ 33 6.0. CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................................35 7.0. PROJECTED SEA LEVEL RISE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA – SUGGESTED RESEARCH................................38 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................................................................40 REFERENCES................................................................................................................................................................41 APPENDIX A: CALCULATION OF RELATIVE SEA LEVEL (RSL) CHANGE BY THE YEAR 2100 ..................47 iii ABSTRACT Thomson, R.E., Bornhold, B.D., and Mazzotti, S. 2008. An examination of the factors affecting relative and absolute sea level in coastal British Columbia. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr.Ocean Sci. 260: v + 49 p. It is now generally accepted that global climate change is occurring and that this change is responsible for the observed ongoing rise in global sea level. This report summarizes our current understanding of sea level variability in the world ocean, with particular focus on the coastal regions of British Columbia and northwestern Washington State, including estimates for future global and regional sea level rise and their uncertainties. The report further addresses the implications for extreme events, such as those due
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