Israel and the Middle East News Update

Wednesday, October 30

Headlines:

• Lebanon's PM Hariri Announces Resignation Amid Protests • US House Passes Resolution Recognizing Armenian Genocide • Nikki Haley Slams Bernie Sanders: ‘He Outdid Himself’ • Jordan Recalls Ambassador to Protest Detention of 2 Citizens • Israeli Embassies Shut as Diplomats, Military Attaches Strike • Gantz: “When PM, I will Embrace All Streams of Judaism” • Justice Minister Slams State Attorney Office over Netanyahu Probes • Report: Netanyahu’s Son Calls Senior Likud Minister ‘Rapist’

Commentary: • Al-Monitor: “Decision on Unity Government in Gantz’s Hands” - By Mazal Mualem, commentator at Al Monitor • Ma’ariv: “I Wonder Whether They Ever Think About the Day After” - By Ben Caspit, commentator at Ma’ariv

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor

News Excerpts October 30, 2019

Ha’aretz Lebanon's PM Hariri Announces Resignation Amid Protests Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri said he would submit his resignation on Tuesday, declaring he had hit a "dead end" in trying to resolve a crisis unleashed by huge protests against Lebanon's ruling elite. The Sunni politician addressed the nation in a televised address after a mob loyal to Shi'ite Muslim groups Hezbollah and Amal attacked and destroyed a protest camp set up by anti-government demonstrators in Beirut. Lebanon has been paralyzed by the unprecedented wave of protests against the rampant corruption of the political class that has collectively led Lebanon into the worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. See also, “What’s next for Lebanon after PM Hariri resigns?”(AP)

New York Times US House Passes Resolution Recognizing Armenian Genocide The House voted overwhelmingly on Tuesday to formally recognize the Armenian genocide and denounce it as a matter of American foreign policy, a symbolic vindication for the Armenian diaspora made possible by a new torrent of bipartisan furor at Turkey. The passage of the legislation, by a 405- to-11 vote, is the first time a chamber of Congress has officially designated the 1915 mass killings of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman Empire as a genocide. Lawmakers had previously shirked from supporting such a resolution to preserve the United States’ relationship with Turkey, a NATO ally that has steadfastly denied that the atrocities amounted to genocide. See also, “U.S. HOUSE RECOGNIZES ARMENIAN GENOCIDE, BACKS TURKEY SANCTIONS” (JPost)

Jerusalem Post Nikki Haley Slams Bernie Sanders: ‘He Outdid Himself’ Former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley slammed 2020 Democratic presidential Bernie Sanders on Twitter on Tuesday for his speech at the J Street conference. She wrote, "Just when you thought Bernie Sanders couldn’t get any more radical, he outdid himself. He wants to take money we give to Israel to defend itself from terrorists, and give it to Gaza, which is run by terrorists?? Unreal. Why isn’t every other Dem pres candidate saying he’s wrong?" Her response comes after Sanders said, “solution to Israel, if you want military aid you’re going to have to fundamentally change your relationship to the people of Gaza.” He then proposed that “some of the $3.8 billion should go right now to humanitarian aid.” See also, “Israel's Knesset Speaker to Sanders: 'Stop Talking Nonsense'” (Ha’aretz)

Times of Israel Jordan Recalls Ambassador to Protest Detention of 2 Citizens Jordan has decided to recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv to protest Israel’s ongoing detention of two of its citizens, Ayman Safadi, the Jordanian foreign minister, announced late Tuesday. Safadi’s statement was a further indication of the tense state of relations between Israel and Jordan, which marked the 25th anniversary of the signing their landmark peace agreement last weekend. “In light of Israel’s failure to heed our demands for months that it free Jordanian citizens Heba al-Labadi and Abdul Rahman Miri and their continued detention in an illegal and inhumane way. Times of Israel 2

Israeli Embassies Shut as Diplomats, Military Attaches Strike All Israeli embassies and consulates around the world shut down early Wednesday as diplomats and military attaches went on strike over a long-simmering dispute with the Finance Ministry over expense stipends paid to envoys. The move, coordinated by the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry and the Histadrut Labor Federation, comes after the Treasury reportedly backtracked on previous understandings and said it would force the envoys to pay back thousands of dollars which they had been reimbursed for expenses. The closure came into effect at 01:00 on Wednesday morning. See also, “Israeli diplomatic missions around the world to be shut as workers strike” (Ynet News)

Ynet News Gantz: “When PM, I will Embrace All Streams of Judaism” Blue and White leader MK Benny Gantz announced Tuesday that he will embrace all streams of Judaism if he were to become prime minister. “When I will be the Prime Minister of Israel, I will embrace all streams of Judaism. We are part of an inspiringly colorful mosaic of cultures and traditions. I will nurture this pluralism,” said Gantz as he addressed Jewish leaders from around the world attending The Jewish Agency for Israel Board of Governors in Jerusalem. Gantz said he will also push for the implementation of the Western Wall agreement, a compromise reached between orthodox and non- orthodox Jewish denominations, according to which the non-Orthodox "mixed" prayer area for men and women was supposed to be expanded in the southern part of the Western Wall. See also, “Gantz promises area for mixed-gender prayer at Western Wall” (Israel Hayom)

Ynet News Justice Minister Slams SA Office over Netanyahu Probes Minister of Justice Amir Ohana attacked in a press conference Tuesday the State Attorney office for alleged misconducts in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's investigations in corruption cases held against him. "There is a State Attorney office within the State Attorney office, it controls the schedule according to its political agenda. It's hard to believe that this is how the law enforcement system acts these days," said Ohana. Ohana called upon the Attorney General Mandelblit to investigate the leakage of information out of Netanyahu's investigations. The Ministry of Justice published a statement on behalf of Mandelblit rejecting Ohana's misconduct claims and calling them unfounded. See also, “Israeli Justice Minister Says 'Deep State' Is Pushing Netanyahu Corruption Cases” (Ha’aretz)

Yedioth Ahronoth Report: Netanyahu’s Son Calls Senior Likud Minister ‘Rapist’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s son Yair has said that police investigations into him were “an unacceptable disgrace” and that Gideon Sa’ar, the prime minister’s rival at the top of the Likud party, is “a rapist who got his rape victim a job,” Channel 12 News reported Tuesday night. Sa’ar responded by saying that “if the report is correct, I reject with great disgust the unbelievable and contemptible lies with which Yair Netanyahu has tried to falsely accuse me in his testimony to the police. This is further testimony to the uninhibited, years-long campaign of spreading tall tales against me with the goal of slandering my name and hurting me politically. As in the past, it won't succeed.”Yair Netanyahu also responded to the Channel 12 report, saying that “the use of criminal and biased leaks from the Yair Netanyahu investigation, in which the case against him was closed, is the continuation of a hunt against him and against the Netanyahu family.”

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Al Monitor – October 29, 2019 Decision on Unity Government in Gantz’s Hands By Mazal Mualem, commentator at l Monitor • Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz is new to Israeli politics. He has been at it for less than a year, and yet in this short time, he’s already been through two election campaigns. As head of the Blue and White party, he has also managed to position himself as that party’s natural candidate for prime minister. • This is no mean feat. On his way to achieving this objective, he not only had to come out unscathed from an ugly campaign of personal attacks by the Likud and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He also had to overcome the skepticism voiced behind his back by his fellow members of the Blue and White leadership. The climax came in the April election campaign when the No. 4 person on the party’s list, former Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, said in an interview with Channel 12 that he will have “a hand on the steering wheel.” In other words, he will be supervising Gantz. It was obvious what he was insinuating. Gantz wasn’t happy to hear it, and that’s putting it lightly. Ashkenazi is eying the prime minister’s office for himself, just as is the No. 2 person on the list, Yair Lapid. These voices of skepticism died down after Blue and White’s achievement in the April election when it won 35 seats. They died down even more after the September election when Blue and White became the biggest party in the Knesset. • Gantz is now the most powerful brand in the Blue and White party. Neither Ashkenazi nor Lapid can challenge that position. Nor can anyone else in the party. His character, restrained style and the experience that he is starting to accumulate in the political arena have all turned him into a powerful player. Right now, he holds the mandate to form a government. He is the one who attends negotiations with Netanyahu — just him, one on one, without his No. 2, Yair Lapid, and without Ashkenazi’s “hand on the steering wheel.” In this sense, he is very different from Labor- Gesher party Chairman Amir Peretz, for example. Peretz shows up to negotiations with Gantz with his No. 2, Orly Levy-Abekasis, right beside him. • Senior members of Blue and White have no way of knowing what is really being said in those meetings between Gantz and Netanyahu. They know nothing about the dynamics, nor do they know about the nuances of the discussions. True, Gantz updates them. But he focuses on giving them a picture at a certain resolution, while other resolutions of the same picture remain in the room. That is why when Gantz spoke with the press after his meeting with Netanyahu at the Ministry of Defense on the evening of Oct. 27, even the most senior members of Blue and White listened very attentively. It sounded like Gantz was breathing new life into the coalition talks. “I’ll continue with all efforts to form a unity government and to prevent third elections for the State of Israel,” said Gantz. He described the meeting as “businesslike” and added that there will be further meetings in the future. • Political pundits have pointed to signs of potential progress in the talks. They noted that, unlike previous meetings, there was a relaxed mood after the meetings with neither side attempting to denigrate the other. It was later learned that in the room, Gantz asked very practical questions about the rotation agreement between him and Netanyahu. For example, he asked at what stage during the legal proceedings will Netanyahu claim incapacity so that he (Gantz) is appointed to replace him as prime minister.

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• But then, less than one day later, Gantz played a different tune at a meeting of the Blue and White Knesset faction. It seemed as if Gantz had just taken a big step backward. “One of the major problems in the current negotiations is the Likud’s insistence on coming to the coalition with a bloc that will ensure that Netanyahu gets immunity. The ruling party does not want to hold a practical discussion about policy guidelines, which most of the people want,” said Gantz. Reading between the lines, it could be understood that even the scenario of a minority government backed by the Joint List — a unified slate of predominantly Arab parties — is on the table. • Gantz’s rhetoric, as well as the rhetoric of his three co-leaders of the Blue and White party, was firm about Netanyahu. “A government could be formed in 48 hours. All that Benjamin Netanyahu needs to do is agree to be second in the rotation. The State of Israel doesn’t need another election,” said Yair Lapid, revealing that the Blue and White party does not operate solely on the basis of common principles uniting the different factions. Rotation is important to Blue and White too. Lapid himself said so. • Lapid knows that Netanyahu would not agree to that since it means that he would be putting his own head on a silver platter and deciding that this would be the end of his political career. For Netanyahu, it is essential to keep his position of prime minister at a time when the attorney general must decide whether or not to indict him. While it is possible that he (Lapid) believes that the Likud will “get rid of Netanyahu” soon enough, for the most part, that is wishful thinking. It does not correspond with the current reality in the Likud. • What makes Lapid’s statement important is that it provides a little insight into the internal discussions taking place in the Blue and White leadership. When it comes to Netanyahu, Lapid is the most militant member of that leadership. He is not even willing to begin discussing any outline that involves immunity (for Netanyahu). This is, of course, a position based on values, and one that Blue and White ran with in the election. It is an “election promise.” The problem is that it clashes with a complex political situation. • Beyond that, Lapid has said explicitly that he is not afraid of a third round of elections and, if that happens, the Likud will suffer a serious beating and drop to just 25 seats. Is that what he really wants? If it does happen and the Blue and White party has a decisive win at the polls, he will receive his position in the party’s internal rotation system and serve as prime minister for half of the new government’s tenure — this was the original agreement reached between Gantz and Lapid when they first joined forces. • From within the room, Gantz can hear Lapid, Ashkenazi and Moshe Ya’alon all bolstering his public position. But he can also hear some of his most senior advisers who think he should make progress toward forming a unity government with the Likud, based on the outline proposed by President Reuven Rivlin or, in other words, with Netanyahu serving as prime minister first. This way, they argue, Gantz is assured that he will eventually become prime minister, even if it takes another year. And at the same time, it also avoids a third round of elections. • Another person who rejects Netanyahu completely is Labor-Gesher Chairman Peretz. At a meeting with Gantz on Oct. 28, Peretz reiterated his commitment from before the election that

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he would not sit in a Netanyahu government. This position limits Gantz’s maneuverability and makes it much harder for him to follow the president’s proposed outline. • And then there is Chairman of Yisrael Beitenu Avigdor Liberman. The big unknown with him is how coordinated he is with the Blue and White party and in particular with Yair Lapid. What sort of game is Liberman playing? How far will he go with his demand for a unity government made up of the Likud, Blue and White, and his own Yisrael Beitenu faction. Meanwhile, Gantz has been listening to everyone and refusing to break ranks in his own party. If he had to decide between an in-depth discussion of the outline proposed by Rivlin and maintaining the unity of his Blue and White party, Benny Gantz prefers unity — at least at this stage.

Summary: Lapid knows that Netanyahu would not agree to that since it means that he would be putting his own head on a silver platter and deciding that this would be the end of his political career. For Netanyahu, it is essential to keep his position of prime minister at a time when the attorney general must decide whether or not to indict him. While it is possible that he (Lapid) believes that the Likud will “get rid of Netanyahu” soon enough, for the most part, that is wishful thinking. It does not correspond with the current reality in the Likud. What makes Lapid’s statement important is that it provides a little insight into the internal

discussions taking place in the Blue and White leadership. When it comes to Netanyahu, Lapid is the most militant member of that leadership. He is not even willing to begin discussing any outline that involves immunity (for Netanyahu). This is, of course, a position based on values, and one that Blue and White ran with in the election. It is an “election promise.” The problem is that it clashes with a complex political situation. Beyond that, Lapid has said explicitly that he is not afraid of a third round of elections and, if that happens, the Likud will suffer a serious beating and drop to just 25 seats. Is that what he really wants? If it does happen and the Blue and White party has a decisive win at the polls, he will receive his position in the party’s internal rotation system and serve as prime minister

for half of the new government’s tenure — this was the original agreement reached between Gantz and Lapid when they first joined forces.

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Ma’ariv – October 30, 2019 I Wonder Whether They Ever Think About the Day After By Ben Caspit

• I wonder whether they ever think about the day after. After all, they know that that day is near at hand. The herd of sycophants who fill the “top tiers of the Likud” aren’t blind. The location of one’s tongue doesn’t affect the clarity of one’s vision. The opposite may, in fact, be true. Even an anosmic person can now smell the scent of the end. They know that one day, in another two weeks, two months or a year and two months, we will all wake up to the day after the Netanyahu era. • What will that day look like? What will the law enforcement system look like on that day? What will remain of the police? Who will survive in the State Attorney’s Office? What will become of the institution of the Attorney General’s Office? When will it be the judges’ turn? What will remain of public confidence, the rule of law, stateliness, the belief that Israel is governed by the rule of law and that there is a mechanism in place that is supposed to oversee that? What will remain of the accepted rules of the game, which are the cornerstone of any properly-run democracy? After all, corruption isn’t going to disappear. The need for courts, law enforcement, prosecutors, judges and systems of justice and government will remain even after the members of the corrupting family go off to attend to their own affairs. Will we simply be able to go back to normal, without any advance notice? Will we be able to rebuild from the rubble? Pick up the pieces left behind by the D9 that has bulldozed the country? I’m no longer sure we will. • The justice minister yesterday gave a speech that brimmed with incitement and completely baseless slander against the justice system under his purview. The police (“public security”) minister acted in kind, using slightly less blunt language, attacking the police under his purview. The two of them, Amir Ohana and Gilad Erdan, are supposed to extend their support to the people who shoulder the Sisyphean burden of enforcing and fortifying the rule of law. • The two men’s statements are directly and patently connected to the unbelievable transcripts that [Hahadashot’s] Guy Peleg provided from Yair Netanyahu’s interview with the police. The two are intertwined. Netanyahu Junior is the source of authority, the principal maligner, the official inducer of the lunacy. He calls the shots with his spittle. He raises the bar, and they leap to the best of their effort to clear it. To hear the disturbed curses that were aired by Netanyahu Junior (how did he and Avner grow up in the same house?), I nearly wrote: “to hear in disbelief.” But the truth is that there isn’t any reason for disbelief. Believe, friends, believe. Everything that is now happening has been horrifyingly planned and directed. Just as President Rivlin predicted nearly two years ago, Netanyahu has no intention of allowing the State of Israel to move on without him. He’ll burn it down with everyone inside. He won’t leave anything standing. • Had the police summoned an open sewer from a refugee camp for questioning, it would have emitted less of a stench than the reek that erupted from the mouth of the flamethrower from Balfour Street. He called the police and the detectives “Stasi” and “Gestapo,” and the world was silent. He said that Gidon Saar “raped and arranged a job for his rape victim,” and was met with a deathly silence from the Likud. He spewed out a delusional blood libel against Nir Hefetz (“he killed a soldier and dragged his body to the train tracks to disfigure it”), and no one uttered a peep. He cast the entire rule of law establishment as the “Mafia” with his noisome breath, and that was accepted with stoic equanimity. 7

• Almost in tandem, the emissary of that angel of destruction, the man who is otherwise known as the “justice minister,” inveighed against the justice system, while “senior Likud officials” and “senior right wing figures” held their tongues in the best-case scenario, and applauded in the less than best-case scenario. A prominent journalist who thrives off of leaks sat in a television studio and demanded an immediate investigation into the leaks. The man [Amit Segal], who was leaked the information about the “Iranian hack” into Benny Gantz’s telephone in the middle of the run-up to election, is trying to saw off the branch that the entire media sits on (as does democracy and the public’s right to know). • The justice minister demanded that everyone in the State Attorney’s Office submit immediately to a lie detector test because of the wave of leaks, and no one was prepared to stand up and say to him the following: Distinguished minister, cool it. You’re a minister in the Israeli government. Ask your staff to prepare a comprehensive review of the media’s coverage of the three most prominent previous investigations into the actions of senior state officials: Ehud Olmert, Avraham Hirschson and Moshe Katsav. Once you’ve leafed through that review you will see that nothing new began with Netanyahu’s investigation. Olmert was the subject of a larger number of investigations and leaks. There were a larger number of cases and transcripts. Nearly everything leaked in a live broadcast; several investigative measures were leaked even before they were actually carried out. The same is true of Hirschson and Moshe Katsav and, if you’d care to look, you would see that that was also the case in every other investigation, including the Deri and Sharon investigations, and all the others. That’s the way it is in a democracy. There are journalist who ask questions, report and render leaked information in the service of the sacred right of the public to know, so as to prevent a situation from evolving in which the government disposes of evidence, quashes scandals and suppresses liberties. • Then, distinguished “justice minister,” meet with one of the veteran legal affairs correspondents for an intimate conversation. If you don’t trust the ones who are still on the job, try one who has retired. Someone with experience and seniority. As him how it works. He’ll tell you: the number of leaks that come directly from the State Attorney’s Office is next to nil. That is a professional fact that no one disputes. The leaks are provided by the lawyers, and that was the central reason for Netanyahu’s insistence that the material from the investigation not be turned over to the lawyers before the elections in April. • Once you’ve done those two things, convene another dramatic press conference at 6:00 in the evening, and apologize. I know that that isn’t going to happen. The only thing that interests Amir Ohana, a man who could only have been appointed justice minister either in North Korea or in Israel, is to please his masters and dispatchers. Ah, and also to improve his chances in the next party primary. After the horror show that was put on by May Golan this week, he is going to have to work hard to raise the bar that has become our pillory [in Hebrew a pillory is literally referred to as a “pole of turpitude”].

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Summary : The justice minister demanded that everyone in the State Attorney’s Office submit immediately to a lie detector test because of the wave of leaks, and no one was prepared to stand up and say to him the following: Distinguished minister, cool it. You’re a minister in the Israeli government. Ask your staff to prepare a comprehensive review of the media’s coverage of the three most prominent previous investigations into the actions of senior state officials: Ehud Olmert, Avraham Hirschson and Moshe Katsav. Once you’ve leafed through that review you will see that nothing new began with Netanyahu’s investigation. Olmert was the subject of a larger number of investigations and leaks. There were a larger number of cases and transcripts. Nearly everything leaked in a live broadcast; several investigative measures were leaked even before they were actually carried out. The same is true of Hirschson and Moshe Katsav and, if you’d care to look, you would see that that was also the case in every other investigation, including the Deri and Sharon investigations, and all the others. That’s the way it is in a democracy. There are journalist who ask questions, report and render leaked information in the service of the sacred right of the public to know, so as to prevent a situation from evolving in which the government disposes of evidence, quashes scandals and suppresses liberties.

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