Israel and Middle East News Update

Wednesday, March 24

Headlines: ● 87.5% of Votes Counted, Netanyahu's Bloc Has 59 Seats ● Gantz Gets Second Chance, Wins 7 or 8 Seats ● IDF Accidentally Reveals Secret Bases in Online Map ● Fatah, Hamas Face Headwinds Ahead of Palestinian Vote ● Quartet Discusses Reviving , Palestinian Peace Talks ● Palestinians Using Postal Bank To Avoid Israeli Law ● IDF Airstrikes Hamas Targets in Retaliation for Rocket ● China Plans To Invite Palestinians and Israelis for Talks

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “The Key Person’’ - By Nadav Eyal

● Ma’ariv: “The Genius’’ - By Ben Caspit

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts March 24, 2021 Ynet News 87.5% of Votes Counted, Netanyahu's Bloc Has 59 Seats After more than 87.5% of the vote has been tallied, the right-wing bloc headed by Prime Minister 's , appears to be on 59 seats, even with the support of 's Yamina. Early exit polls following Tuesday's election indicated a virtual deadlock for a fourth time in the past two years, leaving Israel facing the prospect of continued political gridlock and unprecedented fifth consecutive election. The latest tally does not include the double envelopes, which include the votes of coronavirus patients, soldiers and Israelis abroad. According to the latest results, Likud has 30 seats, Yesh Atid 17, Shas 9, Blue & White 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Labor 7, Yamina 7, 7, Religious 6, The Joint List 6, New Hope 6, Meretz 6 and Ra'am with 5. Dig Deeper ‘‘In Referendum Election on Netanyahu’s Achievements, Victory Again Eludes Him’’ (Times of Israel)

Jerusalem Post Gantz Gets Second Chance, Wins 7 or 8 Seats Defense Minister , whose Blue & White Party was expected to be wiped out, ended up with 7-8 seats according to initial exit polls. It is a far cry from the 33 seats his combined Blue & White and Yesh Atid Party received in the last election. He is the politician for whom the results reflected the steepest fall from grace. Expectations had been set so low that the upward surge is seen as a victory. It was thought that Gantz no longer had any political clout. He has already said that he would not join a Netanyahu-led government as he did after the last election, and so he is now counted in the anti-Netanyahu bloc headed by Yesh Atid leader . Dig Deeper ‘‘Far-Right Party Set To Gain New Influence After Israeli Vote’’ ()

Ha’aretz IDF Accidentally Reveals Secret Bases in Online Map An Israeli military unit posted on its website recently a map with the precise locations of most of the country’s bases, including ones about which the army is usually silent. The Home Front Command of the IDF removed the classified information from the map after asked about it. The map was posted to the National Emergency Portal site as part of the command’s involvement in the state’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The map showed not only COVID-19 testing centers in residential communities across the country, but also, until the additional information was removed, IDF facilities including bases of the Israel Air Force and of Military Intelligence. The level of detail on the map made it possible not only to identify the location of these military bases, but also their exact boundaries. The names of the bases also appeared on the map. Dig Deeper ‘‘IDF Accidentally Reveals Location of Secret Bases Online’’ ( Post)

2 Ynet News Fatah, Hamas Face Headwinds Ahead of Palestinian Vote Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party and his militant Hamas rivals would each fall well short of a parliamentary majority if elections are held in May, forcing them to partner with each other or smaller parties to form a government, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. If elections were held today a single Fatah list would win 43% of the vote and Hamas would win 30%, with 18% of voters undecided. But a faction led by Mohammed Dahlan, a former senior Fatah leader who had a falling out with Abbas would win 10%. Nasser al-Kidwa, who was kicked out of Fatah after forming his own list, would win 7%. PCPSR director Khalil Shikaki said Fatah is seen as best able to address most of voters' top concerns, including restoring national unity, improving the economy and lifting the Israeli- Egyptian blockade of Gaza that was imposed after Hamas seized power in 2007. But Fatah's internal rivalries could weaken it vis-Ã -vis the more disciplined and unified Hamas. Dig Deeper ‘‘As Israelis Vote, Palestinians Skeptical About Own Elections’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Reuters Quartet Discusses Reviving Israel, Palestinian Peace Talks The Middle East quartet of mediators - the US, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations - discussed reviving “meaningful negotiations” between Israel and the Palestinians with the aim of a two-state solution. In a statement following their meeting, the quartet said that both Israel and the Palestinians need “to refrain from unilateral actions that make a two-state solution more difficult to achieve.” It appeared to be the first time since September 2018 that envoys from the four mediators have met. Last month, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he hoped there would be a quartet meeting in coming weeks, now that there was a new president in the White House. The Palestinians want a state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip with east Jerusalem as its capital - all territory captured by Israel in 1967. Under a failed peace proposal by former President Trump, Washington would have recognized Jewish settlements in occupied territory as part of Israel. Dig Deeper ‘‘UN Adopts Resolution Condemning Israel Over 'Human Rights Situation'’ (I24 News)

Jerusalem Post Palestinians Using Postal Bank To Avoid Israeli Law The Palestinian Authority (PA) will use the government's postal bank to distribute "pay-for-slay" payments to Palestinian terrorists to avoid penalties by Israeli law that could be imposed on Palestinian banks that distribute the payments, Qadri Abu Bakr, the PLO's Director for Commission of Prisoners’ Affairs, told the Turkish Anadolu Agency. An Israeli law last year set a deadline of December 31, 2020, for banks to stop handling the payments and to permanently close the relevant accounts. The accounts were closed by the end of the year to avoid possible penalties. The PA paid terrorists three months worth of the monthly payments near the end of last year in preparation for the move. The decision to distribute the payments through the postal bank was made due to the fact that the postal bank is for mail transactions and is not a banking institution and is therefore not subject to the law. Eventually, ATMs will be installed and cards will be issued to distribute the payments.

3 I24 News IDF Airstrikes Hamas Targets in Retaliation for Rocket The IDF struck Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip after a rocket landed in Israeli territory earlier on Tuesday, according to a statement by the military. "Earlier today, a rocket was fired from the Gaza Strip at Israeli territory," the IDF said. Earlier reports said the rocket landed near the city of Beersheba, where Netanyahu was campaigning at the time. "In response, a short while ago, IDF fighter jets and attack helicopters struck a rocket manufacturing site and a military post belonging to the Hamas terror organization." It was unclear who perpetrated the attack, although Israel maintains Hamas "is responsible for all events transpiring in the Gaza Strip and emanating from it, and will bear the consequences for terror activity against Israeli civilians." The rocket caused no reported casualties, although it came on a sensitive day as Israelis vote in their fourth elections in two years. Israel closed border crossings with the West Bank and Gaza for election day, amid an uptick in cross-border activity in recent days. Dig Deeper ‘‘Palestinians in Hebron’s Old City Build Fence To Prevent Settlers’ Attacks’’ (Al-Monitor)

Reuters China Plans To Invite Palestinians and Israelis for Talks The Chinese government plans to invite Israelis and Palestinians to hold talks in China, Al-Arabiya TV channel quoted Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as saying in an interview. Wang, who started a Middle East tour this week, also voiced support for a Saudi initiative to end the war in Yemen, according to the Saudi-owned, Dubai-based channel. China has offered itself several times in the past as an alternative to the United States when it comes to mediating between Israelis and Palestinians, coming up with proposals to end their decades-old conflict. He did not elaborate, and it was not immediately clear whether he had government representatives in mind. On Yemen, Wang said: “We call for implementing the Saudi initiative for a settlement in Yemen as soon as possible.” The Saudi peace initiative includes a nationwide ceasefire and the reopening of air and sea links with the territories held by the Houthi group in Yemen. However, the Iran-aligned Houthis has said the offer falls short of their demands. Dig Deeper ‘‘Saudi Envoy Urges Lebanon Politicians To Form New Government Quickly’’ (Reuters)

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – March 24, 2021 The Key Person By Nadav Eyal ● Let’s get right to the bottom line: there isn’t one, yet. Some of the exit polls from the last election projected 60-seat parity; it ended up giving 62 seats to the bloc of Netanyahu’s opponents. With margins like the ones that we saw last night, we should wait for the final results. That’s a cautious statement, not a melodramatic one; it’s also the reality. If the final outcome delivers 61 seats to Netanyahu with Bennett, the prime minister will undoubtedly be closer than ever to a right-wing coalition, where the representative of the hate-based Noam Party will be in the Knesset, along with Ben-Gvir, of course. ● The far right has never had as strong a showing in the Knesset as the projections are currently showing. That’s not the main reason that the reflected outcome is so exceptional, practically astonishing. The Likud maintained its strength as Israel’s strongest political brand, but the storm will rage around him [“storm” is the meaning of Gideon Saar’s surname]. Naftali Bennett and Gideon Saar’s attempt to create a right-wing power center aside from Netanyahu has failed. In the case of Saar, who was the boldest in this attempt, this is a collapse that has left him with leftovers from Blue and White and a few seats. In Bennett’s case, he lost both the centrist voters and the Netanyahu loyalists, and he ended with one of his weakest scores ever since he entered politics. ● Who succeeded? First, Yair Lapid and his philanthropic strategy. Everyone on his side made it, which was his goal. Lapid could have easily shifted left-wing voters to himself had he been lured into Binyamin Netanyahu’s campaign, which did all it could to give the impression of a battle between Netanyahu and Lapid. All of the rest of the Zionist left- wing parties—Blue and White, Meretz, the Labor Party—demonstrated unexpected strength. Where did it come from? From voters who were leaning toward Bennett and Saar but came home, but it mostly came from the fact that every party that ran a sharp ad hominem campaign against Netanyahu drew more center- left voters than anticipated. The right had the exact mirror image: anyone who pledged loyalty to Netanyahu maintained or increased their strength. That’s what happened to Smotrich. In other words, anyone who acted within a grayish area and challenged the fundamental tribalism of our current political situation got screwed. Saying “I’m right-wing and I don’t want Netanyahu” doesn’t work, as Gideon Saar discovered. ● The key question concerns Naftali Bennett. Before that, the question is whether there is any question at all. An absolute majority of the political establishment says that there isn’t; he’ll be incapable of switching sides, and the other side can’t deliver an alternative coalition without the Joint List in any case. That’s an important point that’s worth insisting on—the Zionist parties in the anyone-but-Bibi bloc, together with Bennett, are projected to have 58-59 seats. In order for Bennett to be able to consider another possibility at all (which, again, is unlikely), that number has to be 61 and above. And what about the coronavirus? It had very little impact. The Likud did not grow stronger, according to the exit polls, and it did not get any weaker either.

5 ● No party received exceptional credit for its positions, and Naftali Bennett did not put to good use the public esteem that he had accumulated as defense minister. Israeli politics has stayed on course and out of touch with everyday life, totally addicted to the black sun of Binyamin Netanyahu and his trial.

6 Ma’ariv – March 24, 2021 The Genius By Ben Caspit ● There’s a good chance that even the smelly fish won’t agree to be wrapped up in this column. It’s based on particularly poor, un-updated exit polls from the TV networks, so this should be taken in perspective. The only thing that can be declared right now with certainty, risk-free, is that Binyamin Netanyahu is a dogged political genius. That’s the reason he’s still here, alive and kicking, trolling an entire country and dragging it from one campaign to another without succumbing to despair. Throw him out the door and he’ll come back in through the window. This time, he came back through a tunnel. Even when Binyamin Netanyahu faced dangerous enemies from the right, even when most possible [coalition partners] slammed the door in his face and left him with only the hard right and the Haredim, Netanyahu never gave up. He organized his side and charged at the other. At whom? At the Arabs. Never say never, he said, and he began a steamy affair with none other than the leader of the Islamic Movement in Israel, United Arab List Chairman Mansour Abbas. ● On a normal day, that Abbas is the top devil. Just a year ago, Yair Netanyahu called him “the Israeli branch of Hamas.” But Abu Yair is nonplussed by all of that. Hamas? Let it be Hamas. What’s the difference between Haniya and Abbas? I’m funding Haniya in Gaza; there’s no reason not to flirt with Abbas in Umm el-Fahm. Netanyahu realized that he had no other options, so he went for what he could. That’s his huge advantage over all his rivals: he’s the only one who is willing to do anything and everything to win: lie, cheat, flip-flop, switch sides—he balks at nothing. ● So, Netanyahu’s affair with Abbas overwhelmed the latter and made him take the bet, which may have clinched the election. The bottom line is that Netanyahu split the Joint List, and if Abbas does find himself left out, then those are the four seats that switched sides and decided the campaign, or at least made it a close one. If the Joint List had repeated or at least gotten close to its achievement, the blocs would now be 62-58 in the anti-Netanyahu bloc’s favor. When the paper you’re reading right now went to print, the situation had come to a draw, which is entirely attributable to Netanyahu’s political genius. ● There is no cause for despair for readers of this column who consider Netanyahu a burden on the country. The balance of power has not changed. Netanyahu centered this campaign with the exceptional inoculation drive that he has been conducting in recent months. Everything that happened to him in recent weeks had the most spot-on timing in the world. The cafes and restaurants reopened just in the nick of time. After all that, he’s eked out a draw for now. Even if he manages to form a shaky government, he’s unlikely to be able to keep ruining the country. Taking on a prime minister who managed to immunize the population with dizzying speed, much earlier than the rest of the world, and not getting wiped out is its own kind of accomplishment. Granted, that’s how losers talk, but that’s what we have at the moment. The most disappointed are Avigdor Liberman and Gideon Saar. 7 ● I’m not one of the ones who think that Ms. Nicol Raidman or ex-MK Sofa Landver brought Liberman down from the nine seats that they had been hoping for to the six or so that the exit polls projected for them. I think that Liberman and Saar are the victims of the gevald campaign that Meretz, the Labor Party and Blue and White ran. The moment the knife hovered over the throats of and company, many Tel Avivians and center- left voters who had been considering voting for Liberman and Saar abandoned them and came home at the last minute. Yesterday, we went to bed with a draw. I haven’t a clue what we’ll wake up to today. A lot depends on the end results, the double envelopes, and especially Naftali Bennett. If he really is the key figure in the dramatic event in which we’re participating now, I do not envy him.

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