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Home , Bezalel Smotrich, National camp, Yair Netanyahu

Selected articles concerning , published weekly by Suburban Orthodox Toras Chaim’s (Baltimore) Israel Action Committee Edited by Jerry Appelbaum ( [email protected] ) | Founding editor: Sheldon J. Berman Z”L

Issue 8 8 3 Volume 2 1 , Number 1 4 Parshias Shmini | Shabbos Mevarchim13th Day Omer April 10 , 20 2 1

Are Bennett, Sa'ar right - wing heroes or traitors? - analysis By Tovah Lazaroff jpost.com April 6, 2021 President didn’t do either man any THE FOCUS to date has been on pressuring Bennett, favors when he gave Prime Minister Benjamin with the idea that Sa’ar would be swayed by his choice. Netanyahu the first option to form a government. Sa’ar has seemed so irrelevant that Smotrich didn’t even The next four weeks will determine if party heads mention him in his statements. Gideon Sa’ar of and of Smotrich’s warnings are just the begin ning for the will be viewed as right - wing trai tors or heroes. pressure cooker these two men will be in during the next President Reuven Rivlin didn’t do either man any four weeks, in hopes they will rejoin the fate with favors when he gave Prime Minister Netanyahu. the first option to form a government. How far can these politicians go without angering It underscored the obvious: that were it not for these their base to the point where they lose support? two men, the country could easily have a 65 - member Many predicted the demis e of Yisrael Beytenu head government united by a common right - wing ideology, Avigdor Liberman when he first broke away from the often referred to as the . Netanyahu - led right - wing bloc in the aftermath of the Even before Rivlin’s dramatic announcement, April 2019 election, sending Israel into a second Religious Party head issued a September election. long statement describing the dangers inherent in the But the veteran politician of Muldovian origin proved alte rnatives to that 65 - member right - wing bloc. t hat he had a solid base of support, particularly among Those who support those alternatives, he said, “will Russian - speaking voters. His party has passed the have no home to return to” on the Right and will be threshold in each and every election. viewed as those who have “betrayed” its ideals. Bennett also appeared in danger of disappearing from He wanted Bennett and Sa’ar’s dogged pursuit of a the political stage when he refused to join a Netanyahu - led right - win g - led government without Netanyahu to avoid government last year, with many still blaming him for the two long - term dangers. Alternative scenarios he said fact that the prime minister had to rely on Blue and White empowered Israeli - Arabs and/or destroyed the long - term Party head to form a government that was covenant between the and the ultra - religious parties not fully right - wing. which has been one of the pillars on which th e Right has But Bennett proved that he also had staying power, rested. receiving sev en seats, so it is likely that he has a base that The Right has already not been kind to Bennett and would continue to return him to the . Sa’ar, who have dreamed of ousting Netanyahu, but who Both Liberman and Bennett made their moves when received only seven and six mandates respectively they were already veteran party heads. Sa’ar, on the other compared to the Likud’s 30. Right - wing ideology however hand, is the new politician on the block and he has no way is as natural as air to b oth men and thus they cannot totally of knowing in advance how his decision to block the abandon it to strengthen their base by fully moving to the formation of an easy Netanyahu - led 65 - seat government center. will play out. Had both men recommended to Rivlin that centrist In his speech at the Knesset, Netanyahu spoke of the politician of , who received 17 importance of a right - wing government to the settlement mandates in last month’s elections, be empowered to be movement, of which Sa ’ar is an ardent supporter. prime minister, it is likely Rivlin would have given Lapid In the Knesset on Tuesday Sa’ar could not have been the first option to form a government. more clear about his intention to stand firm to his ideals In short, the question of whether a coalition will be and promises, repeating that he had no intention of joining formed or the government will head to a fifth election is a Netanyahu - led government. on some level about the inability of these two men to His comments made it seem lik e he preferred to either sit with Netanyahu or abandon their right - wing gamble on finding a way to have a right - wing government ideals. without Netanyahu, or head to elections. Bennett has attempted to rebrand himself as a flexible The spotlight might be on Bennett, but it could be politician, and has kept alive the idea that he could possibly Sa’ar who, at the end of the day – like Liberman before be swayed. him – brings the house down on the possibility of a But since both men would be needed to make a government and sends the country into its fifth election in differen ce, would Sa’ar follow? three years. Focus o n Israel April 10, 2021 Page 2

Should that happen, voters will have to decide: Is he a of preventing a coalition that would approve almost every hero for preventing a government led by a man facing issue that brought him into politics in the first place? corruption charges – or did he betray his right - wing ide als

The Myt h of Israel’s Political “Blocs” By Michael Koplow israelpolicyforum.org March 25, 2021 The most ideologically coherent coalition is the one Netanyahu and thereby keep Kahanists out of a coalition least likely to come about. will be successful, shows why everything is so fluid. There For two years, anyone who pays attention to Israeli are no black boundary lines in Israeli politics in the current politics has been bombarded with elec tion news and era, only a muddled haze where any combination is political analysis about Israel’s political blocs. The first two theoretically conceivable. elections were structured by analysts and pollsters into a But conceivable combinations are not the same as right - wing bloc and a left - wing bloc, which never made likely combinations, and that is where the Netanyahu any sense given that the left - wing bloc included Kachol factor does insert itself. Because Netanyahu is so Lavan – a centrist party that leans to the right – and polarizing, he effectively acts as a dam that blocks the eventually came to include Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael natural flow of Israeli politics in a couple of ways. Without Beiteinu, which cannot be described as left in any him, the outcome of the election would not have been in meaningful sense of the word. At some point before the doubt; everyone would have predicted a large right - wing third election and then in earnest prior to this wee k’s coalition of 70 - 75 seats and the actual results bear that out. fourth election, people started describing the blocs as pro - His presence drives Sa’ar away from that theoretical right - Netanyahu and anti - Netanyahu. This seemed to better wing coalition, and it partially drives Liberman – who also comport with the landscape, as you had a decidedly right - has to contend with the Haredi parties in that grouping – wing party in Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope in the anti - out as well. The other way in which Netanyahu creates a Netanyahu bloc and another one in Naftali Bennett’s jam is that in addition to being the obstacle to a right - wing Yamina not making any ironclad promises in either government, he removes the possibility of a center - right direction. Yet if there is anything to be learned from the coalition too. If you knew nothing about Israeli politics preliminary results of Tuesday’s election – and full results beyond where parties stand on actual issues and had none will not be known until Friday – it is that talking about any of the background context , you would think that the most type of c oherent bloc in Israeli politics is silly. logical government is Likud, Yesh Atid, Kachol Lavan, A political bloc is a grouping of political parties all New Hope, and . That is a 70 seat coalition committed to working together, and what makes a bloc is a that is hawkish on security but short of being fully tie that binds them that also outstrips the wedges that push annexationist, centrist on social issues, and secular but them apart. You are never going to hav e complete respectful of religious observance. Netanyahu’s presence agreement among every party in a bloc on every issue, makes a coalition like this, and coalitions similar to ones since if you did those parties would have no cause to exist that he himself constructed in the past, impossible today. as separate entities. But having a similar overarching Netanyahu is not the only variable turning conceivable worldview, or a principle that connects all of the parties coalitions into fantasy ones. The past weeks were filled together, is enou gh to ensure cooperation. with anointing Bennett as a potential kingmaker, and the Looking at the deadlocked results of the fourth past days have been filled with anointing Ra’am chief election, which come on the heels of the deadlocked Mansour Abbas as the new fulcrum who will determine results of the first two elections and the wholly predictable which side gets to form a government. I’m not sure that collapse of the unwieldy compromise following the third eith er of them will get to play this designated role, since election, de monstrates that there are no sustainable Israeli blithe predictions about critical deciders allegedly sitting in political blocs. Assuming that the preliminary results hold, between two otherwise fully formed blocs ignore the Netanyahu is going to be a seat or two short of 61, and he interparty and interpersonal dynamics that have caused is going to go looking for those additional seats in different Israeli politicians to hem th emselves in. The group of places. One place will b e the core of the anti - Netanyahu Likud, , UTJ, and that needs both bloc in trying to peel off defectors from New Hope’s Bennett and Abbas in order to form a government means sinking ship or convince Benny Gantz to once again betray the two most hawkish parties in Israel sitting with Israel’s his anti - Netanyahu pledge. This in itself betrays the fallacy only Islamist party, and a party whose platform and of looking at Israeli politics right now as a stru ggle identit y rest on anti - Arab racism sitting with an Arab party. between two definable entities. The fact that it is It also means Netanyahu throwing out his repeated pledge conceivable that Likud defectors who left solely because from the past few weeks that he would not form a they want to see Netanyahu ousted may return to the fold coalition with the support of Ra’am and multiple Likud if it means retaining some measure of political power, or MKs definitively ruling it out as well, let alone the the fact that it is even mo re conceivable that an appeal to awkward Yair Netanyahu tweet from a few months ago Gantz’s ego to once again “save Israel” by joining with calling Abbas and Ra’am the Israeli branch of Hamas. Page 3 April 10, 2021 Focus on Israel

Even if you somehow subtract Ra’am and are able to get path may get Netanyahu what he wants, but also makes his to 61, Bennett still has to sit in a coalition with Smotrich, life much harder since it makes it harder to actually form a whom he broke away fr om before the first election in government, and if he succeeds it means being hostage to forming the now - defunct party and then split the whims of the most odious party in the Kne sset and with again before the current election. dealing with the domestic and international fallout of These problems do not exist only for Netanyahu and allying with Meir Kahane’s political heirs. his side. The theoretical anti - Netanyahu coalition is even On the other hand, if Netanyahu goes down this road more unwieldy. It w ould require Bennett joining a and fails and no new coalition agreement is signed, the government under Lapid after signing a pledge on live government that was just dissolved remai ns in place and television this past weekend not to do so. It would require with it the ticking timebomb of Gantz automatically Liberman joining with Arab parties, whether the becoming prime minister in November. The question is or Ra’am. It would require the Joint List and Abbas to what Netanyahu fears more: a government that does not reconcile after splitting before this election. It would give him immunity, or a government that will make his life require Lapid and Gantz to reconcile after splitting when even more miserable by dint of whom it must include? Gantz entered negotiations with Netanyahu last spring and I suspect what we will see over the next few weeks is after Gantz spent months publicly disparaging Lapid, an effort by Netanyahu to sideline Itamar Ben Gvir and including alleging that Lap id “hates people.” While none by trying to get Smotrich to join without of these can be definitively ruled out, particularly not after his more infamous partner, putting the pressure on Gantz some of the head spinning reversals we have seen in recent to be the person who prevents the awful precedent of years, they do make everything far more complicated than Kahanists sitting in a coalition, trying to pick off Sa’ar’s would be otherwise necessary. acolytes who know that they have to return to Likud in Finally, there ar e two more complicating factors that order to remain in the Knesset beyond this one, and laying create different incentives for Netanyahu and what he does the groundwork to fend off crit icism should he form a next and that will jumble things even further. On the one coalition with Ra’am’s votes. And if none of this works, he hand, there is Netanyahu’s trial and his never - ending quest will bite the bullet and turn to Religious Zionism if that is for immunity, which points to him trying t o construct a what ultimately puts him over the top. Whatever happens coalition that will pass the legislation he wants in this though, let’s finally put to rest this notion that Isra el has sphere. That means including Religious Zionism, which two established camps with only two parties sitting in the not only voiced support for prime ministerial immunity middle that are undecided about their allegiances. but went so far as to demand it during the campaign as a Dr. Michael J. Koplow is Israel Policy Forum’s Policy Director, condition for join ing the government. Going down this based in Washington, DC . Has Biden already betrayed the trust of pro - Israel Democrats? By Jonathan S. Tobin jns.org April 5 , 2021 A shift towards the Palestinians and anti - Israel president’s team. They know that while Obama’s staffers international organizations, coupled with an ominous are far less sympathetic to Israel than their counterparts in silence about a drift to Iran appeasement, are all the Trump administration, they believe that cooperation recreating Obama’s “daylight” strategy. will yield better results than open opposition. It’s only been 11 weeks since Joe Biden was sworn in That makes perfect sense. It’s also true that of all the as presiden t of the United States. With the president possible 2020 Democratic contenders, Bid en was the preoccupied with domestic politics and waging rhetorical friendliest to Israel. Though that was a low bar, it’s warfare on his Republican opponents, it’s clear that foreign nonetheless true that his longstanding ties to the pro - Israel policy is a low priority for the new administration. And community mark him as more likely to treat the Jewish with Biden diving headfirst into parti san scrums — accusing state as an ally, which is more than his old boss President Republicans of being racists with brazenly false accusations Barack Obama g enerally did. about a Georgia voting law and promoting an All that adds up to a general willingness to give Biden infrastructure bill that is more of a liberal project wish list a chance. And with Israel’s government still paralyzed by a than it is about rebuilding bridges and highways — there two - year - old political stalemate, relations between the two seems to be little space or oxygen left for a debate about nations are also seemingly on hold. his intentions abroad. But that doesn’t mean that Bid en and his handlers It’s also true that the pro - Israel community is haven’t already tipped their hand. determined to avoid any unnecessary battles with Biden. A number of key moves by Biden on both the Though some supporters of Israel have registered justified Palestinian and Iranian fronts have already undermined complaints about many o f Biden’s appointees, including confidence not only in his judgment but in his intentions. both Obama administration alumni and those with more With respect to the Palestinians, it was to be expected radical connections and beliefs, for the most part, the that Biden would walk back many of Trump’s historically organized Jewish world is prepared to work with the pro - Israel policies. While Biden begged off on any attempt Focus o n Israel April 10, 2021 Page 4 to move the U.S. embassy back to Tel Aviv from towards Israel when it comes to international organizations , which would both violate U.S. law and spark a that e ngage in anti - Semitic targeting of Israel. battle that would be a hu ge and unnecessary distraction Biden has restored funding to UNRWA, the U.N. from his domestic priorities, the new administration has refugee agency that has not only helped keep the 1948 made it clear that the kind of closeness between the two Palestinian refugees and their descendants homeless but is nations that existed prior to Jan. 20 isn’t in the cards. dedicated to keeping their war against Israel going, d oing The least of it was the State Department’s overruling far more harm than good. And the new administration has of the Trump - era declaration that the was not only rejoined the viciously anti - Israel U.N. Human disputed rather than “occupied” territory. This will Rights Council that Trump had rightly boycotted but also encourage unrealistic Palestinian hopes that the Jewish embraced the toxic organization’s endorsement of the state will cede territory in the heart of the Jewish homeland Durban Conference, a historic anti - Semitic hate - fest. that a broad consensus of Israel i voters have consistently Most ominous is the administration’s moves towards a labeled as not so much ill - advised as insane. This lip new round of appeasement towards Iran. We knew that service to the theoretical possibility of a two - state solution Biden wanted to revive Obama’s dangerously weak Iran that the Palestinians have repeatedly shown no interest in nuclear deal, though he and Blinken have rightly spoken of reasserts policies that have failed time and again. the need to str engthen it — a foreign - policy imperative that The same is true of the message that Secretary of State Trump made a priority by pulling out of the old pact and Antony Blinken delivered to Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi reimposing sanctions. Biden’s approach to Iran has been Ashkenazi last week when he spoke of the need to deliver much like that of Obama’s terrible negotiating strategy. the same “equal rights” to the Palestinians that Israelis Iran has refused to put itself back into c ompliance with the enjoy. The main obstacle to those rights remains original deal, and Biden and Blinken appear ready to start Palestinian intransigence rather than any actions on Israel’s making concessions merely to get Tehran back to the part. Yet Blinken’s trolling disguised as human - rights negotiating table. advocacy will only do more to annoy Israelis than to But the worst is the supine attitude Biden has taken to endanger them. Nor will it do much to help the what may well be the most dangerous foreign - policy event Palestinians pers ist in their century - old war on Zionism to in recent years: the agreement Iran struck with China that which they are hopelessly addicted. will effectively circumvent sanctions on the Islamist Far more troubling are the signals that show that republic. The United States has the power to force China Biden is prepared to ignore the Taylor Force Act signed to abandon its attempt to buy oil from Tehran and to into law by former President into law in make other investments ther e, as well as institute military 2018. The act for bade U.S. aid to the Palestinian Authority cooperation. All Biden needs to do to spike this potential so long as they were, as they have continued to do, funding game - changer is to tell the Chinese they must choose terrorism via pensions and salaries to those who shed between doing business with Iran or the United States. But Israeli and American blood. a week - and - a - half has passed since the announcement, and The administration first said it just wished to give the Washington has contented itself with nothing but mealy - Palestinians $ 15 million to help the P.A. fight the mouthed expressions of a desire for all these countries to coronavirus pandemic. But now it turns out that it may have good relations. have allocated up to $100 million in aid to Mahmoud If this is allowed to stand, it’s a signal that Biden hasn’t Abbas’s terror - backing kleptocracy, with most of this kept the courage or the will to stick to his promises on sto pping from the public. Iran from getting nuclear weapons. More to the point, it Biden is giving Abbas $75 million i n economic aid to may show that his foreign - policy team thinks that, like Abbas as a “confidence - building” measure. Supposedly Obama’s negotiators, such a development is not a big deal. Blinken wants to give the P.A. a chance to prove itself All of this means that it’s not too early for the pro - trustworthy in spite of the fact that for the 27 years of its Israel community to star t speaking up loudly and angrily existence, it has consistently shown the opposite. More to about the implications of all these moves, especially the the poin t, handing over U.S. taxpayer cash to Abbas’s indifference to the Iran - China deal. Fatah thieves and thugs is a flagrant violation of law since It’s one thing for the organized Jewish community to it helps the P.A. continue its terrorist funding. But the be slow to anger and to pick their fights with the new same media that cried foul at what they claimed was administration caref ully. It’s quite another to sleepwalk Trump’s running roughshod over the law have no problem through Biden’s first year in office only to eventually wake with Biden treating open violations of it as a thing of no up and realize that the danger is already here, and it’s too consequence. late to do anything about it. Equally troubling is the way Blinken’s State Mr. Tobin is editor in chief of JNS — Jewish News Syndicate. Department is reverting to neutrality, if not hostility,

Page 5 April 10, 2021 Focus on Israel

The Palestinian Authority Is Making It Harder for the U.S. to Help It By Dore Feith newsweek.com March 30, 2021 Paying terrorists while shutting down civil society. government work plans, can they really be considered With presidential elections scheduled for July, the independent of that government? Does funding them Palestinian Authority (PA) appears to be paying some "directly benefit" the PA? The PA has just made it a lot homage to democracy 16 years after its last vote. But is the harder for State Department lawyers to j ustify a scheduled vote sincere homage, or sleight of hand? resumption of aid for the Palestinians. Despite his scheduling of elections, PA President Abbas's power grab is only the latest in decades of Mahmoud Abbas is cracking down on private individuals authoritarian actions by Palestinian leaders. Indeed, the and organizations. His new presidential decree on NGOs Palestinian people have been oppressed by illiberal may trigger a U.S. law that prohibits "directly" funding the representatives dating back nearly a century. It is well PA government. Congress should take note. known that the Palestinians have suffered under leaders A recently leaked State Departmen t memo reveals that who were focused more on killing Israelis than improving the U.S. government is gearing up to restore U.S. lives for Palestinians. But the problem is not just neglect. economic assistance to the PA, possibly as soon as this Palestinian leaders also actively torment their own month. It reportedly argues that restoring economic aid to population. In the 1920s and 1930s, the national leader Haj the Palestinians could strengthen "civil society, media Amin al - Husseini killed and expelled his political rivals, watchdogs and o ther elements of the fourth estate." But including moderate Arabs who wanted to compromise what happens when the PA effectively nationalizes civil with the Zionist movement. In the 1990s, the PA was born society groups? in a cradle of corruption: The International Mon etary As of this month, Palestinian NGOs are required to Fund estimates that at least $900 million was siphoned off submit plans of action and budgets to the PA, which by PA founder Yasser Arafat just from 1995 through 2000. reviews them for conformity to the "work plan of the Arafat's security forces, which Abbas now controls, were relevant ministry." Palestinian organizations now claim this and remain known for systematic arbitrary arrests and not only interferes with their independence, but also torture of dissidents a nd rivals. indicates "a deliberate intention to dissolve" NGOs. Why? Palestinian civil society leaders object to Abbas's Because the law authorizes the government to absorb the recent fiat, but they have no legislative or judicial recourse. dissolved orga nization's assets into the PA treasury or The Palestinian legislature has not met since 2007. And transfer them "to a similar Palestinian association or Abbas has been undermining the courts for years. In 2016 institution." Funders of anti - corruption NGOs may soon he created the C onstitutional Court, which the European find that their dollars are enriching the very authorities Council of Foreign Relations describes as a political tool whose graft those NGOs have sought to expose. U.S. for Abbas to wield against rivals in Hamas and his own government funds might also get swept up in this scheme. party, Fatah. All nine judges were unilaterally appointed by Biden's acting ambassador to the U.N. said in January Abbas. In 2021, Abbas named an ally as ch ief justice of the that this renewed assistance is not "a favor to the High Judicial Council and forced other judges into "early Palestinian leadership." But if it is such a favor, the aid retirement." It's no coincidence in this election year that would not comply with feder al law. the High Judicial Council has the final say over election Since 2018, U.S. law prohibits sending economic court judges. assistance that "directly benefits the Palestinian Authority" Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged that the so long as the PA continues its practice of doling out U.S. will hold accountable "those who commit human financial rewards to people who have committed terrorism rights abuses." One cannot do that if one funds the PA. against Israelis. The law is known as the Taylor Force Act, The key to helping the Palestinians is not to send the PA named after an American West Point graduate and veteran money, but to help save the Palestinian people from the who was killed by a Palestinian terrorist in Israel. It is not PA itself. clear how the Biden administration plans to square its aid Mr. Feith is doing r esearch for The Public Interest Fellowship. He intentions with the requirements of that ext ant law. was a special assistant to the deputy administrator of the U.S. Now that NGOs are compelled to "conform" to PA Agency for Internati onal Development from 2019 – 2020 Visit suburbanorthodox.org for the c urrent issue .

Confronting the Very Real Possibility of a Nuclear Iran By R. James Woolsey, William R. Graha m, Henry F. Cooper, Fritz Ermarth, and Peter Vincent Pry nationalreview.com Mar ch 19 , 2021 What if the mullahs already have the bomb? Washington’s mainstream “worst - case” thinking Washington’s policy - makers are being misled by the assumes Iran does not yet have atomic weapons, but could intelligence and defense communities that are grossly “break out” to crash - develop one or a few A - bombs in a underestimating the nuclear threa t from Iran, just as they year, which the intelligence community would suppo sedly did with North Korea. detect in time for warning and preventive measures. Focus o n Israel April 10, 2021 Page 6

Rowan Scarborough recently reported in the Washington Iran can build sophisticated nuclear weapons by Times that “during a private talk in July 2017 before a relying on component testing, without nuclear testing. The Japanese - U.S. audience,” the Pentagon’s director of Net U.S., Israel, Pakistan, and India have all used the Assessment James H. Baker briefe d that “Iran, if it compo nent - testing approach. The U.S. Hiroshima bomb chooses, may ‘safely’ possess a nuclear weapon in 10 - 15 was not tested, nor have been more sophisticated U.S. years time.” thermonuclear warheads during the past 30 years. Pakistan Another mainstream “worst - case” view is that Iran and India’s 1998 nuclear tests were done for political could abide by the Obama administration’s Joint reasons, not out of technological necessit y. Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and legitimately IAEA inspections are limited to civilian sites, and glide toward nu clear weapons capability in ten to 15 years. restricted from military bases, including several highly The Trump administration canceled the JCPOA for suspicious underground facilities where Iran’s nuclear - legitimate reasons, but the Biden administration has weapons program almost certainly continues clandestinely. pledged to revive it. Imagery of one vast underground site, heavily protected by In contrast to these views, we warned in these pages in SAMs, shows high - voltage powerlines terminating February 2016 that Iran probably already had atomic underground, potentially delivering enormous amounts of weapons deliverable by missile and satellite: electricity, consistent with powering uranium enrichment We assess, from UN International Atomic Energy centrifuges on an industrial scale. So IAEA reports on Agency [IAEA] reports and other sources, that Iran Iran’s enric hed - uranium stockpile almost certainly are not probably already has nuclear weapons. . . . prior to 2003, the whole story. Iran was manufacturing nuclear we apon components, like The U.S. intelligence assessment that Iran suspended bridge - wire detonators and neutron initiators, performing its nuclear - weapons program in 2003 is contradicted both non - fissile explosive experiments of an implosion nuclear by Iran’s nuclear archives, stolen by Israel in 2018, device, and working on the design of a nuclear warhead for indicating Iran’s ongoing nu clear - weapons program the Shahab - III missile. (reported at several sites in 2006, 2017, and 2019) and by When our World War II Manhattan Pro ject reached Iran’s rapid resumption of enriching uranium to prohibited this stage, the U.S. was only months away from making the levels. This demonstrates an existing capability to quickly first atomic bombs. This was Iran’s status 18 years ago. produce weapons - grade uranium. Reports from the And the Manhattan Project employed 1940s - era Congress ional Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Commission technology to invent and use the first atomic weapons in elaborate these and important related issues. only three years, beginnin g from a purely theoretical Most estimates assume Iran needs five to ten understanding. kilograms of highly enriched (over 90 percent) uranium - So by 2003, Iran was already a threshold nuclear - 235 or plutonium - 239 to make an atomic weapon, as with missile state. But for at least the last decade, the the first crudely designed A - bombs that destroyed intelligence community has annually assessed that Iran Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But a good design requires only could build atomic weapons in one year or less. On the one to two kilograms. Crude A - bombs can be designed o ther hand, less than a month ago, independent analysts at with uranium - 235 or plutonium - 239 enriched to only 50 the Institute for Science and International Security percent. assessed that Iran had a break - out time of as short as three Iran’s nuclear and missile programs are not j ust months for its first nuclear weapon and five months for a indigenous, but are helped significantly by Russia, China, second. North Korea, and probably Pakistan. And there is no re ason to believe U.S. and IAEA While the intelligence community uses an in - country intelligence capabilities are so perfect that they can nuclear test as confirmation that a country, including Iran, assuredly detect Iran’s clandestine efforts to build atomic has developed a nuclear weapon, this leaves it wide open weapons. Indeed, the U.S. and IAEA did not even know to deceiving itself, our leadership, and our allies. Iran and about Iran’s clandestine nuclear - weapons program until North Korea have close working relations, North Korea Ira nian dissidents exposed it in 2002. will do anything for Iranian oil, and Iranians have The IAEA and the U.S. intelligence community have reportedly been present at some of North Korea’s nuclear long been poor nuclear watchdogs. IAEA inspections tests. North Korea could easily have exchanged failed to discover clandestine nuclear - weapons programs in information with Iran and even tested Iranian nuclear North Korea, Pakistan, Iraq, and Libya. In 1998, the weapons as well as their own — if there is any difference intelli gence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment” — without the U.S. and its allies knowing whose weapons failed to warn that, just a few months later, Pakistan and were being tested. North Korean scientists are known to India would overtly “go nuclear” with a series of nuclear - be in Iran helping the Islamic Revolutionary Guard “space weapons tests. U.S. intelligence often underestimated program” that provides cover for developing ICBMs. nuclear threats from Russia, China, a nd North Korea. It is As we warned five years ago, it is implausible and likely now doing the same with Iran. imprudent to assume that Iran refrained from making Contrary to mainstream thinking: Page 7 April 10, 2021 Focus on Israel

atomic weapons for more than a decade, when the y could Regime change by sponsoring a popular revolution may be do so clandestinely: a practical solution — the Iranian people would overthrow Iran probably has nuclear warheads for the Shahab - III their Islamist government if they could. But the regime medium - range missile, which they tested for making EMP itself has proven adept at suppressing popular uprisings, attacks. . . . And at a time of its choosing, Iran could and may use U.S. involvement, whether purported or launch a surprise EMP attack against the United States by actual, as a propaganda tool in such an effort, as it has sat ellite, as they have apparently practiced with help from before. North Korea. But there are things we can do right now, including: Why has Iran not gone overtly nuclear, like North Harden U.S. electric grids and other life - sustaining Korea? There are several explanations. For one, North critical infrastructures against a nuclear EMP attack, which Korea is protected by China and lives in a safer is described in Iran’s military doctrine and would be the neighborhood, where South Korea and Japan are reluctant regime’s most easily executed and most d amaging nuclear to support U.S. military options to disarm Pyon gyang. In threat. contrast, Iran’s neighbors, Israel and moderate Arab states, The White House and STRATCOM should regard are far more likely to support air strikes to disarm Tehran. Iran as a nuclear - missile threat right now, increase scrutiny As we warned five years ago, Iran probably wants to build by national technical means of verification and by human enough nuclear missiles to make its capabilities irreversible: intelligence to locate nuclear - weapons capabilities, and Ira n could be building a nuclear - capable missile force, prepare preem ptive options should action become partly hidden in tunnels, as suggested by its revelation of a necessary. vast underground missile basing system. . . . Iran is Strengthen National Missile Defenses and especially building toward a large, deployable, survivable, war - deploy modern space - based defenses. For example, the fighting missile force — to which nu clear weapons can be 1990s Brilliant Pebbles project, canceled by the Clinton swiftly added as they are manufactured. administration, could begin deployment in five y ears, cost Moreover, Iran wants to preserve the fiction of its an estimated $20 billion in today’s dollars, and intercept non - nuclear status. It has derived far more economic and essentially all ballistic missiles ranging more than a few - strategic benefits from the JCPOA and threats to “go hundred miles, including from Russia and China. Our nuclear” than has North Korea fro m “going nuclear” national survival should not depend only upon striking overtly. Ominously, Iran may be forgoing the deterrence first or deterrence. The American people would rather be benefits of an overt nuclear posture because it is building defended than avenged. toward surprise future employment of nuclear capabilities Ambassador R. James Woolsey is a former director of to advance the global theological agenda of the ayatollahs central intelligence; William R. Graham was President and t he Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the world’s largest Reagan’s science adviser and acting administrator of and most sophisticated terrorist organization. NASA, and chaired the Congressional E MP Commission; So what can we do to meet this almost - certain threat? Ambassador Henry F. Cooper was director of the Strategic Some better options are, unfortunately, far more difficult Defense Initiative and chief negotiator at the Defense and at this juncture. Arms control non - solutions like the Space Talks with the USSR; Fritz Ermarth was chairman JCPOA will only make matters worse, just as arms control of the National Intelligence Council; Peter Vincent Pry is did with North Korea, by offering false hope while the executive di rector of the EMP Task Force on National and nuclear threat grows. Disarming Iran of nuclear capabilities Homeland Security and served in the Congressional by airstrikes or invasion would be very risky since we do Strategic Posture Commission, the House Armed Services not know where all of its nuclear missiles are hidden. The Committee, and the CIA. U.S. was deterred from disarming North Korea when that How would such a government govern? And how nation’s nuclear - missile capabilities were merely nascent. long could it last?

Israel’s Latest En ergy Breakthrough with Greece and Cyprus By Oved Lobel realclearpolitics.com March 30, 2021 Anchoring the Jewish state’s importance for both for the first time. Construction is expected to be complete Europe and the Middle East. by 2024 and operational by 2025. The project as conceived On March 8, the energy ministers of Israel, Greece would also allow Israel to draw power from Europe’s grid and Cyprus signed an initial agreeme nt for the in emergencies and thus rely more heavily on renewables construction of, at 1500 km, the world’s longest, deepest such as solar power, enabling it to meet its climate and undersea power cable. Estimated to cost about 2.5 billion energy goals by 2030. Euros and partly financed by the European Union (EU) as But even more than the positive outcomes f or energy part of its push for energy efficiency and clean energy, the security and climate change goals, the project’s political 2,000 megawa tt Euro - Asia interconnector project will link and strategic ramifications are difficult to overstate. Israel’s the electricity grids of the three countries, as well as burgeoning energy and security partnership with Greece hooking Israel and Cyprus up to the European energy grid and Cyprus, which has qualitatively blossomed since 2017, Focus o n Israel April 10, 2021 Page 8 will furt her anchor Israel’s importance for Europe and the permi ssion to build across what it claims, with no legal Middle East. basis, is territory within its Economic Exclusion Zone. Alongside the East Mediterranean Gas Forum The fact that Cyprus, hitherto the only EU member (EMGF), the result of massive gas discoveries in the state not connected to Europe’s energy grid, could be fully Exclusive Economic Zones of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt integrated by 2025 is an explosive pro blem for Turkey, over the past decade, Israel’s centrality as a security and which has kept the Island divided and occupied since the energy partner is now assured, particularly if the EastMed 1970s, when it established the militarised puppet colony of Pipeline – which would be the longest undersea pipeline in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Under the world, much like the Euro - Asia interconnector – is the guise of pushing for rights for this puppet state, built, enabling Israel to export natural gas to Europe and Turkey has se t about trying to sabotage every endeavour of linking Cyprus to the EU’s natural gas network. which Cyprus is a part. Recently, Turkey decided to As AIJAC has covered previously, there are a range of exacerbate tensions yet again by calling for a ‘two - state energy and security partnerships now coalescing in the solution’ to the Cyprus issue, in contravention of eastern Mediterranean and drawing in a broader range of universally supported reunification talks, and re portedly outside powers. This has accelerated since the sign ing of puppeteered the election of a presidential candidate in the the Abraham Accords in 2020, including the United Arab TRNC more directly under the control of Turkish Emirates – which acceded to the EMGF as an observer in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There is no doubt late 2020 – as well as the US, France and now Saudi Turkey will continue using the TRNC as an irritant to Arabia. Driving this expanding and deepening network of undermine the Israel - Greece - Cyprus relationship, alliances and partnerships is T urkey, which has opted to normalisation feelers notwithstanding. threaten the key interests of virtually every country in the Ironically, in its unilateral pursuit to become an energy region and double down whenever challenged. Naturally, hub, Turkey has isolated and contained itself, while its Turkey’s reaction to the Euro - Asia interconnector was to competitors gradually become ever more vital for demand that Israel, Greece and the EU seek Turkey’s European and Middle Eastern energy need s.

The Iron Dome’s Tenth Birthday Is a Cause for Celebration By Matan Tzuri ynetnews.com March 30, 2021 Even its critics cannot deny that it saves lives. ra mshackle rockets cobbled together in Gaza’s dilapidated In 2011, Israel’s brand new Iron Dome missile defense scrapyards. system intercepted its very first rocket fired from Gaza, That notion was a mistake. Iron Dome is one of the high above the country’s battered south. best things to happen to the communities adjacent the The all too familiar screeching whistle of the rocket Gaza Strip in particular and the south as a whole. The siren was heard in fighters Ashkelon, operating the Ashdod and syste m are seen . as nothing less But this time, than family in instead of people every household fleeing to their in southern reinforced rooms Israel. in a panicked The very wave, everyone deployment of exci tedly stepped the system both onto their changed life in balconies to the south and watch the light signaled that show that was the Israel’s leaders Iron Dome in finally action. understood the People country’s home clapped and front had to be cheered at the sight of the system’s first successful protected by any means. interception. Pride swelled in the chests of Israelis who It served as a stepping stone for the deployment of knew that reality in the country would forever be changed. additional protective means in the south, such as the new Despite the south's newly found euphoria, many and technologically advanced fence along the Gaza Strip around Israel believed that this multi - million dollar system border. - whose missiles are priced at tens of thousands of shekels Still, back in 2011, the use of the system was subject to apiece - was nothing less then an overkill response to the criticism, with some cla iming that intercepting the rockets Page 9 April 10, 2021 Focus on Israel

fired from Gaza would both make Israel too lenient siren blare, they at least now know someone is watching towards the Strip and abolish any reason for a swift, over them. powerful response against Gaza’s terror groups. Iron Dome batteries have become part of the scenery There is no doubt that Israel reacts differently to an in the south. Far from being feared by the local attack in w hich a rocket is intercepted midair and one in population, these missile batteries are instead s een as which a rocket strikes down in the middle of a city and guardians angels bearing the promise of proper safety. causes multiple casualties. Even so, real lasting peace in the south demands But the bottom line is that Israel has managed to leaders who can and will make decisions on the Gaza Strip. develop a system that does nothing less than save human Compared to the Iron Dome, which excels time and lives. Every time t he people of the south hear that awful time again, our leaders have failed repeatedly .

AI helps zap mosquito larvae before they become a problem By Abigail Klein Leichman israel21c.org April 7, 2021 IBM’s AI XRPIZE finalist Zzapp Malaria anal yzes threatens about half of the world’s population, according satellite images to identify malaria risk areas, and to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. then treats them. It’s already working in Africa. Founded in 2016, Zzapp targets malaria - bearing An Israeli startup with a unique solution for mosquito larvae at their source by using AI to predict combatting malaria is one of three finalists for the IBM where stagnant water bodies will occur and by managing Watson AI XPRIZE. effective treatment of the detected areas. The five - year global competi tion aims to demonstrate “Our technology has two components: one about how humans can use powerful artificial intelligence (AI) planning and one about management,” CEO Arnon Houri technologies, such as IBM’s Watson question - answering Yafin tells ISRAEL21c. system, to tackle the world’s most pressing issues. “On the planning side, AI analyzes satellite imagery The five - year global competition aims to demonstrate and builds a risk index that takes into account topography, how humans can land - use data, rain use powerful data and more. artificial The management intelligence (AI) part of the app technologies, such transfers the AI as IBM’s Watson analysis into question - answering defined tasks for system, to tackle field workers.” the world’s most Built with pressing issues. tools including The three IBM Watson finalists — Zzapp Studio, IBM Malaria of Watson Machine Jerusalem, Aifred Learning and IBM Health of Montreal PAIRS Geoscope, and Marinus Zzapp’s solution is Analytics of adapted for low - Pittsbu rgh — will connectivity learn in June who environments and wins the $3 million works on simple, grand prize, $1 low - cost phones million second prize or $500,000 third prize. common in developing countries. “IBM Watson AI XPRIZE showcases the ‘art of the The system was first tested in one part of Ghana in possible’ when the power of AI is unleashed to help 2017 in coll aboration with a local malaria - control company address some of society’s toughest challenges ,” said Daniel to gauge its effectiveness and cost based on the number of Hernandez, General Manager, IBM Data and AI. “It is malaria cases reported in area clinics. truly inspiring to see Watson and good tech in action “Just recently, we finished a large - scale operation in across all three teams.” Ghana covering the entire city of Obuasi and the villag es Malaria is a public health crisis around it,” says COO Arbel Vigodny. Malaria claims more than 400,000 lives each year, “In Zanzibar, we are using drones in the process in mostly children under five . collaboration with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Africa is the most affected continent, but malaria because to study wide areas by foot is difficult.” Focus o n Israel April 10, 2021 Page 10 Additional projects in Ethiopia and Mombasa are soon XPRIZE money into a project “demonstrating our moving forward, says Vigodny. capability of fully eliminating malaria fr om a small country From diagnostics to prevention or island to prove our capabilities — and do it in a Houri Yafin came to Zzapp from Israeli company replicable way.” SightDiagnostics, whose first product, Parasight, used Zzapp also is launching a funding round to machine learning to detect malaria in a blood sample in supplement whatever prize money it will win. less than four minutes with nearly 100% acc uracy. “Sadly, our technology is quite unique. The idea of Sight later branched out from malaria and introduced using AI and apps for solvi ng developing world problems the OLO onsite blood testing device. But it made the first is a growing trend, but we are the only ones applying these investment in Zzapp and gave the startup the benefit of its tools to larviciding in a precise and smart way,” says Houri accumulated knowledge on malaria. Yafin. “When we were introducing Parasight in Indi a, we saw He points out that Zzapp is the second Israeli team the toll malaria takes, so we decided to go to the core of that made it to XPRIZE finals. In 2017, SpaceIL was malaria and decided to address the problem at its root,” named one of five finalists in the $30 million Google Houri Yafin says. Lunar XPRIZE Moonshot contest. (The contest expired Existing strategies, like spraying the stagnant pools before any of the finalists reached the Moon, but XPRIZE where larvae hatch, do work but can be greatly enhanced awarded SpaceIL $1 million for its attempted landing in an d better coordinated through artificial intelligence, he 2019.) says. Commenting on the current competition, XPRIZE “It’s about digitizing the operations to plan them more CEO Anousheh Ansari said: “AI is key to a healthy, effectively and analyze the data from our mobile app that prosperous, abundant future and will continue to field workers use to get the AI recommendations and transform how we live and work.” report what they are doing, ” says Vigodny. Ansari said he expects Aifred Health, Marinus “That data shows any issues and helps us identify Analytics and Zzapp Malaria to “change the game in their problems early to take corrective actions quickly.” respective fields, and we are looking forward to seein g Houri Yafin says the company hopes to funnel the firsthand the positive impact they will have on humanity.”

Anti - Jewish Expulsions and Antisemit ism in the Arab World By Elder of Ziyon algemeiner.com April 6 , 2021 A series of stories over the past few weeks have 100,000 to reportedly 1,500, and the country is considered highlighted the end of the Jewish communities in to be friendly to Jews as well. Iran trumpets its tolerance various Muslim and Arab nations. towards Jews, but 75% of Jews fled after the Islamic There are reportedly only a handful of Jews left in Revolution in 1979. Iraq, none of who m wish to be identified. There used to The relationship between Muslim and be 150,000. Only a tiny number of Jews remain in Yemen, friendliness towards Israel is impossible to ignore. Some after 13 Jews were forced out recently — even though they Muslim countries that have warm relations with Israel, like were reportedly staunchly against moving to Israel. There Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, also have thriving Jewish used to be over 60,000. comm unities. The Jewish communities in the Gulf are According to one stor y, the last Jew in Afghanistan is starting to re - emerge publicly after the signing of the leaving; he kept watch over the empty synagogue, which Abraham Accords. will now close forever. That community dates back to the I am seeing articles that are sympathetic to Jews 7th century CE. According to reports, there are only a few occasionally being published in places like Iraq and Egypt, elderly Jews left in Egypt (from 75,000 in 1948). A nd there something that was unthin kable not too long ago. Even so, are tiny amounts or no Jews left in Algeria (140,000 in the relationship between how Muslim countries treat their 1948), Lebanon (24,000), Syria (30,000), Libya (38,000), Jews and how they look at Israel is too strong to be and Jordan. ignored. Morocco, which is celebrated for its tolerance towards The people who like to pretend that t here is no Jews, reportedly only has about 3,000 Jews remaining, antisemitism in the Arab and Muslim world only have to from a commun ity that used to number 250,000. Similarly, look at how the Jewish communities have fared in that Tunisia’s Jewish population has plummeted from over world to see the truth.

Current issue also available at suburbanorthodox.org . If you see something, se nd something” – editor