Volume VII, Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 IN THIS ISSUE:

BRIEFS...... 1

al-qaeda in yemen supports southern secession By Abdul Hameed Bakier...... 3

sunni terrorists strike shi’a mosque in iran’s sistan-baluchistan province by Bernd Kaussler...... 4 IraqiJondollah’sIraqi AwakeningAwakening Abdolmalek Council Council Rigi hezbollah in : the politics of conspiracy and resistance By Chris Zambelis...... 6 Terrorism Monitor is a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. are the afghan taliban using tajikistan’s islamist militants to pressure The Terrorism Monitor is dushanbe on nato supply routes? designed to be read by policy- By Andrew McGregor...... 9 makers and other specialists yet be accessible to the general

public. The opinions expressed within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily PRESIDENT OBAMA’S OUTREACH TO THE MUSLIM WORLD (I) – reflect those of The Jamestown AFGHAN TALIBAN ATTACK BARACK OBAMA’S “ARROGANT” Foundation. SPEECH

U.S. President Barack Obama’s June 4 speech in Cairo was seen by many observers Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution of this or any as an outreach to the Islamic world. Within that world, some welcomed his Jamestown publication is strictly words, some wait to see if deeds of substance accompany those words, while prohibited by law. others, such as the Afghan Taliban, described the President’s words as nothing more than “misleading slogans” that “failed to deliver a clear and true message to the Muslim world.” The speech failed to contain any “sign of practical change in the hostile policy of America towards Muslims” (Afghan Islamic Press, June 5).

In a point-by-point deconstruction of the speech, the Afghan Taliban analyzed and condemned most of the material within the President’s address, which sought to lay a groundwork for repairing relations with the Islamic world. For comments or questions about • The Taliban described the president’s claims of tolerance and good-will as our publications, please send an inconsistent with American actions, particularly those of its “occupation email to [email protected], or forces,” which are committing “mass murder” and imprisoning Muslims contact us at: in Afghanistan and Iraq in “the most hateful prisons of the world.” As 1111 16th St. NW, Suite #320 a result of these “illegal” activities, “Obama’s baseless speech has no Washington, DC • 20036 Tel: (202) 483-8888 importance.” Fax: (202) 483-8337 Copyright ©2009

TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TERRORISM MONITOR, VISIT http://www.jamestown.org TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 • The statement objected to the President’s condemned Obama for failing to speak about justification of the occupation of Afghanistan the blockade of Gaza and Israeli efforts to deny and Iraq as part of a “legitimate struggle to the passage of medicines and basic food items secure U.S. interests… According to national to Gazan residents. The President also ignored and international laws, the occupation of the fact that “mass murders are committed [in independent countries and hostile war against Palestine] at every moment.” their free nations cannot be called a legitimate war.” In its summary of the President’s address, the Taliban statement remarked that President Obama did not come • The Taliban accused the President of wanting with conciliatory intentions, but with an “arrogant to separate Muslims from “their real protectors,” notion” to give orders to the Muslim world. the mujahideen. The speech is described as an effort to divide the Muslim community. “Today, PRESIDENT OBAMA’S OUTREACH TO THE all vigilant Muslims are engaged in jihad in one MUSLIM WORLD (II) – JIHADI ANALYST way or the other. Therefore, the U.S. war against DISSECTS U.S. PRESIDENT’S PRAISE OF TURKISH the mujahideen is considered a war against all SECULARISM Muslim nations and .”

U.S. President Barack Obama’s continuing outreach • Obama’s claim that America was not seeking to the global Islamic community has brought a harsh a permanent military presence in Iraq and response from Jihadi-Salafist ideologues. Typical of this Afghanistan is contradicted by the ongoing reaction is an article entitled “ObamaTurk: The Secular construction of military bases and airports in Phenomenon” by a jihadi analyst using the name “al- both countries, as well as the President’s stated Janubi.” The article, based on President Obama’s intention of sending additional military forces visit to Turkey and his April 6 address to the Turkish to Afghanistan. “This large number of airports parliament, appeared in issue two of the magazine Jihad and countless number of military bases are Recollections, published in May by al-Fursan Media established at a time when they do not need Productions. even half of them, given the number of their forces and daily military flights. This shows that Americans are intending to permanently remain Al-Janubi claims Obama’s speech “championed a in and occupy the region.” version of Islam that advocated secularism, nationalism and democracy in place of the Islam revealed 1400 • The President’s contention that U.S. forces will years ago.” Particularly offensive was his praise of the leave Afghanistan if peace is achieved “is quite founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, funny… The presence of Americans is the main “who single-handedly dismantled the greatest nation cause of violence and the current problems in the Allah ever let exist on the face of the earth” (i.e. the region. Jihad and resistance against American Ottoman Empire). Ataturk’s creation of a secular forces will continue as long as they are present nationalist democracy in place of the Istanbul-centered in Afghanistan. Caliphate (dismantled by Ataturk in 1924) may be his legacy, but this does not make it a good legacy; “Obama • The Taliban also objected to the President’s forgot that Islam has no room for secularism.” use of the Jewish Holocaust to demand that Muslims avoid the “deeply wrong” practices of Al-Janubi cites a Quranic verse, Surah Baqarah, verse “threatening Israel with destruction – or repeating 120: “Never will the Jews or the Christians be satisfied vile stereotypes about Jews.” The Taliban with you unless you follow their way.” Secularism, statement claims President Obama “described says al-Janubi, is the way of the Jews and Christians, Israel as the most innocent and worthy nation though if the Muslims were to follow them in this of the world” while summarizing the 70-years way they would be respected even less than they are of Palestinian suffering in “a few misleading now. Addressing Obama’s statement of U.S. support words.” While the President did contend that for Turkish accession to the European Union (EU), al- “the continuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza Janubi points to the futility of Turkey’s attempts to join does not serve Israel’s security,” the Taliban the EU as proof of the truth of this Surah. 2 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 While Obama praised Turkey’s choice of a new path Al-Qaeda in Yemen Supports (the creation of a secular democracy) rather than allowing partition by the Great Powers or attempting Southern Secession to restore the Ottoman Empire, al-Janubi maintains Turkish nationalism was nothing less than another By Abdul Hameed Bakier form of “European hegemony,” as proved by Ataturk’s preference for the Latin, European alphabet and xploiting ongoing unrest in Southern Yemen, European dress rather than “neutral, non-European” al-Qaeda’s leader in Yemen released an audio modes. President Obama “lied when he said that the Estatement on May 13 entitled “To Our People Turkish republic commanded the respect of the United in the South,” in support of southern Yemeni efforts to States and the world. By imitating those who will secede from Yemen. The audiotape was released through not accept them except as alternative to the ‘radical the jihadi media outlet al-Malahim (shmo5alislam.net, Muslims,’ they are begging for the respect of the U.S. May 14). Various jihadi forums debated al-Qaeda’s call and the world, not demanding it.” for a week afterwards (hanein.info, May 14).

As the Soviet bloc began to crumble in 1990, North and The author calls Obama a hypocrite for stating “There South Yemen (a socialist state supported by the Soviet is no excuse for terror against any nation,” after having Union) were hastily united despite a history of bitter already pledged his support for Israel during the electoral enmity between the political structures in both parts of campaign. “He has already promised to aid one nation, the country. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Sana’a regime Israel, which has no right to exist, in its terrorizing of a led by President Ali Abdullah Saleh waged a war in neighboring nation of which Israel should be a jizyah- 1994 to eliminate South Yemen’s socialists. Since that paying dependency [jizyah is a tax on non-Muslims]. time, Yemen has witnessed waves of public unrest due He means one thing and says another, and according to to poor social and economic conditions in the south. a Muslim or a non-Muslim, that is the definition of a The latest upheaval in the region was in March, when hypocrite!” Yemen’s president Ali Abdullah Saleh ordered his defense minister to quell the unrest in Chanffar city in Finally, al-Janubi responds to President Obama’s the Abyan governorate (al-Arabiya TV, May 24). Most assertion that “The United States is not, and will never of the protests against the Yemeni regime have been led be, at war with Islam.” According to al-Janubi, “To by the Southern Mobility Movement (SMM), a popular not be at war with Islam, he would have to withdraw opposition movement that incorporates “civil society troops from all Muslim lands, allow the Shari’a to be organizations, political parties, societies, shaykhs, implemented by whom everyone else calls the ‘radicals’ dignitaries, academics, politicians, independents and and the ‘extremists,’ stop supporting any anti-Shari’a others,” according to SMM leader Nasser al-Khabji movements in the Muslim lands, and then withdraw (Yemen Post, March 12). all support from Israel so they may be easily overrun and absorbed by the Islamic caliphate to pay jizyah or In light of this latest unrest in the south, al-Qaeda’s be driven into the ocean.” Had Obama been sincere leader in Yemen, Nasir Abdul Kareem al-Wuhayshi in his stated intention to deal fairly with the Islamic (a.k.a. Abu Basir), said in an audio statement that what community, according to al-Janubi, he would have the Yemeni government was doing in the southern withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan and admitted districts of Lahij, al-Dhale, Abyan and Hadramawt was that America had started the current conflict with the unacceptable and the people of the south have every support of the one nuclear power in the Middle East, right to defy the Yemen government’s oppression, a “the real terrorist, Israel.” He would also have cut off right guaranteed by Islam. Al-Wuhayshi added, “We aid and support for dictators in Muslim lands, such as in al-Qaeda organization support what you are doing Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and King ‘Abdullah of Jordan. to reject oppression and support you against the Al-Janubi concludes by asking whether Muslims will government.” Al-Wuhayshi reminded the southerners withdraw their support of Obama or support an enemy of South Yemen’s defunct communist order and how of Islam “and thereby become our own enemies in the it failed in the past, saying that only Islamic Shari’a process.” renders justice and freedom. “A return to God’s law is the only way out of this dilemma we’re in… I warn you not to be manipulated again.” 3 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 Al-Wuhayshi also appealed to the people of South Observers believe al-Qaeda’s religious argument is an Yemen to reject all forms of political parties, an implicit excuse to destabilize southern Yemen because it does call not to join the Supreme Council for the Liberation not recognize international borders between Islamic of Southern Yemen, which has been stirring up protests States. Stable countries are not suitable for al-Qaeda’s in the south under the leadership of the exiled former sabotage activities. To strike at Yemen’s strong points, president of South Yemen, Ali Salem al-Beed. Al- al-Qaeda is constantly planning terror attacks on Wuhayshi warns his fellow Salafists of the implications four major targets - oil facilities, foreign embassies, of allowing the regime of President Ali Abdallah Saleh, foreigners and security officials. Al-Qaeda can only “an infidel apostate agent who has thrust aside the grow and expand in countries burdened with sectarian command of the Shari’a,” to continue in its support and tribal conflicts similar to the situation in Somalia, of U.S. anti-terrorism efforts. “Even the rest of our just a short distance from Yemen. Setting up safe havens brothers in Iraq and Palestine were not safe from this for military training and recruiting new cadres is only regime either, as it has provisioned the U.S. battleships possible after weakening the Yemeni government. If all to kill their children and women.” goes as al-Qaeda has planned, it would control the Bab al-Mandab strait from both sides through a presence in Yemen and Somalia, enabling it to hold maritime Al-Qaeda’s incitement of Yemeni separatists was shipping hostage. Al-Wuhayshi’s audio, ostensibly in discussed extensively in jihadi forums by moderate support of the South Yemen opposition movement, is Muslims, Arab nationalists and pro-al-Qaeda Salafi- actually an attempt to exploit the situation and control Jihadis. The latter supported al-Qaeda’s drive in southern the southern region because al-Qaeda would never ally Yemen on the pretext that the Yemeni government is itself with those who do not adhere to Salafi-Jihadism, arresting Salafis and preventing them from practicing let alone infidel communists. So far, it appears al-Qaeda their beliefs in mosques because Salafism is unacceptable efforts in Yemen are bearing fruit in the sense that it to the United States. has made successful penetrations of the Yemeni security apparatus (al-Faloja.info, March 29). Al-Qaeda claims Salafis are not supporting dissension, but are instead trying to help the oppressed southerners Abdul Hameed Bakier is an intelligence expert on and prevent them from becoming communists again. counter-terrorism, crisis management and terrorist- According to al-Wuhayshi, “You have experienced the hostage negotiations. He is based in Jordan. socialist regime, which imposed on you a lot of suffering - only God knows its amount. Yet here you are still drinking from the same glass at the hands of the gang of Sunni Terrorists Strike Shi’a the [socialist] regime, which rules you today. It is about Mosque in Iran’s Sistan- time that Islam rules so that you enjoy its justice and tolerance. Be cautious not to be deceived once again [by Baluchistan Province socialism], or the efforts you have exerted in fighting oppression and aggression will be credited to the By Bernd Kaussler immoral custodians of [political] parties. Such parties gave our umma [Islamic community] nothing but ranian authorities in the southeastern region of disunity, subordination and submission to the enemies.” Sistan and Baluchistan hung three men in public Ion May 30 for their role in a mosque bombing that killed 25 and injured over 100 worshippers in the city Another al-Qaeda leader, Ghalib al-Zayidi, told a pan- of Zahedan two days earlier. The men were convicted of Arab daily that the “mujahideen” of Yemen would not providing explosives used in the attack and had allegedly repeat the mistake they made in 1994, when they joined confessed to complicity, according to a local judiciary the regime’s campaign to destroy “the Socialist Party official (IRNA, May 30). The Sunni terrorist group, in defense of Yemeni unity after the government had Jondollah (“Soldiers of God”) claimed responsibly for promised them it would implement Islamic Shari’a” once the bombings. the socialists had been eliminated. The regime broke its promise and “suddenly turned against the mujahideen Two days later, Zahedan witnessed major street riots and put them in jail. Some of them were killed and and clashes between security forces and an angry mob foreign mujahideen were expelled” (al-Hayat, May 23). protesting the decision by Mowlavi Abdolhamid, the 4 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 Sunni Friday prayer leader, to attend a memorial service funded and provided with information by Britain and for the victims of the bomb attack. While security was the United States (Vision of the Islamic Republic of restored by local police, five people died in the riots as Iran, December 13, 2008). Jondollah, however, makes one bank was torched, and three people were injured frequent use of international media outlets, including when gunmen opened fire at the campaign headquarters monarchist TV stations based in Europe and the U.S.. of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Press TV, Voice of Baluch is based in Sweden and seems to enjoy June 1; Fars News Agency, May 29). On the same day, very good relations with Dubai-based Al-Arabiyah TV, security personnel defused a homemade bomb found on which has, on several occasions, aired footage showing a domestic “Kish Air” flight carrying 131 people. Jondollah members with Iranian military hostages (Tabnak News, June 20, 2008). The Zahedan bombing was the third such attack by Jondollah in the last twelve months. The central Jondollah’s tactics include assassinations, bombings and government’s control over the underdeveloped province kidnappings. In 2006, the group launched a series of of Sistan and Baluchistan has never been strong and attacks targeting Iranian security personnel and local economic development and public infrastructure is authorities. In March 2006, members of the group still inferior compared to the rest of Iran. The latest disguised as policemen shut down part of the Kerman- bombing and other violent incidents coincide with Bam highway and stopped a convoy carrying civilian the ongoing campaign in Iran leading to the June 12 officials and members of the local security force. presidential election. Iran’s political establishment was Jondollah executed all 22 officials and took several quick to blame foreign governments for the attacks. The civilians hostage (Mardom-Salari, 15 May 2006). Two Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urged unity months later, on the same road, the group killed another to “confront enemy plots,” while Speaker of the House 12 travelers and took several others hostage (BBC, May Ali Larijani accused the United States of instigating the 21, 2006). Gaining more operational strength, the attack through Jondollah (IRNA, May 30; Press TV, group moved on to target military bases and convoys in May 31). 2007, killing 22 Revolutionary Guards and Basiji in the city of Tasuki (Sistan-Baluchestan Provincial TV, March Jondollah’s raison d’être has less to do with secessionist 15, 2007). Abdolmalek Rigi’s boldest move came in ambitions than with the objective of drawing attention June 2008, when his group kidnapped 16 policemen to the plight of the people of Sistan and Baluchistan. The at the Iran-Pakistan border and demanded the release group’s leader is Abdolmalek Rigi, who looks back on of 200 imprisoned Baluchi militiamen. Despite setting more of a criminal career than a political one. Lacking up a joint security committee between Islamabad any religious credentials, his ideology has virtually no and Tehran, neither counterterrorism strategies nor jihadist rhetoric but instead focuses on the “protection negotiations proved effective, with the group eventually of national and religious rights of the Baluch tribe and killing all the police hostages in December 2008 (Mehr Sunnis in Sistan and Baluchistan” (Fararu, December News Agency, December 4, 2008). 17, 2008). In an interview with Roozonline.com in May 2006, Rigi stated, “Since the Revolution until today, the The killing of the policemen was met with stepped up Sunnis have remained the most impoverished group in security and concerted efforts to destroy the group. Since the country… we realized that there is no other way then, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) than to take up arms and begin an armed struggle.” and the regular army have increased their presence in It is unclear how much authority Rigi enjoys over his the region, staged large-scale maneuvers, stepped up group and to what extent he can legitimately claim intelligence cooperation with Pakistan and provided to be heading the Baluch nationalist movement. Since border checkpoints with modern surveillance cameras. hostage-taking, drug-trafficking and smuggling fund Iran’s police chief, Brigadier General Esma’il Ahmadi- the group’s terrorist activities, Rigi has to contend with Moqaddam stated in March that over $150 million has criminal networks and mercenaries in the region. been allocated to strengthen border security (Press TV, March 26). Since January 2008, concerted aerial and Jondollah denies any links to the Taliban but has strong ground-based counterterrorism efforts by the IRGC have ties to Baluch tribes and militias in neighboring Pakistan. led to numerous violent clashes at border checkpoints Iranian security and judiciary officials continue to and isolated security posts and the confiscation of claim their intelligence indicates that the group is being significant amounts of opiates. According to border

5 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 police commander, Ebrahim Karimi, the fighting has so A Web of Conspiracy far claimed the lives of 120 rebels and 19 servicemen (Press TV, January 21). The nature and targets of Cairo’s allegations of a Hezbollah-led plot in Egypt shed light on the underlying By and large, the most recent attack at the Shi’a mosque issues at play. Egyptian authorities initially accused the in Zahedan and the subsequent sectarian violence suspects, which included , Lebanese, and Arab indicates that Jondollah’s operational and tactical citizens of Israel, of funneling funds to Hamas in the strength is far from broken and that an alienated Sunni- Gaza Strip from Egyptian territory (al-Jazeera, April Baluchi minority is now openly challenging the central 10). Cairo then shifted its account and claimed that the government’s authority. Since presidential elections 24 suspects were part of a 49-member Hezbollah cell are scheduled for June 12, and incumbent President that was preparing to execute attacks against Egyptian Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems to be losing ground to his targets and Israeli tourists in Egypt. The suspects were reformist rival, Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the government also accused of engineering a coup at the behest of Iran is trying to use the situation as an opportunity to call to overthrow the government of Egyptian president for a united stand behind Ahmadinejad in order to Hosni Mubarak and spreading Hezbollah’s brand of “foil foreign plots.” While stepped up security in the in Egypt (al-Hayat [London], April 17; al- region may lead to electoral interference by security Arabiya, April 16). forces, such government rhetoric is unlikely to impress Iran’s largely young electorate. Even though Jondollah The suspects are also reported to have attempted to has few friends outside Sistan-Baluchistan, the current recruit Egyptians and others in the country to monitor volatile situation may well be interpreted as yet another shipping traffic traversing the Suez Canal and in other manifestation of poor governance and the government’s locations near the Sinai Peninsula (al-Jazeera, April appalling human rights record. 10). The alleged cell was also said to have mapped out the terrain and demographics of a number of Egyptian towns and villages in Sinai, situated adjacent to Israel Dr. Bernd Kaussler holds a MA and PhD from the and Gaza. Egyptian sources stated that Hezbollah University of St. Andrews and is currently Assistant aimed to gauge the utility of these towns and villages Professor in Political Science at James Madison for infiltrating Gaza and Israel proper to support the University. As Associate Fellow at the Institute for Palestinian resistance, groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Iranian Studies at St. Andrews, he is involved in various possibly members of Israel’s Arab minority (al-Jazeera, research projects on contemporary Iranian politics and April 9). Members of the alleged cell are also accused of foreign policy. planning to smuggle arms and ammunition by ship from Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan into Sinai, presumably to sustain their operations in Egypt and also to bolster the Palestinian resistance (al-Jazeera, April 13). Subsequent Hezbollah in Egypt: The Politics reports citing official sources in Cairo later claimed that of Conspiracy and Resistance the suspects intended to mount suicide attacks against unspecified targets in Tel Aviv (Press TV [Tehran], April By Chris Zambelis 16). Egyptian security officials also reported that they uncovered explosive materials, including suicide belts, he timing of Egypt’s April 8 announcement during the arrests of the suspects (al-Jazeera, April 13). of its arrest of 24 men—allegedly linked to The remaining 25 members of the alleged cell, which THezbollah—on Egyptian soil in November and according to Egyptian officials include an unspecified December 2008 upped the ante in the already tense number of Sudanese, remain at large (Daily Star [Cairo], relationship between Cairo and the Lebanese Islamist April 13). resistance movement and, by extension, Hezbollah’s supporter, Iran (al-Jazeera [Doha], April 11; al-Arabiya In addition to implicating Hezbollah and Iran in a web [Dubai], April 11). Cairo’s allegations regarding the of conspiracy, official Egyptian media sources named suspects and their motives, however, have been fraught Syria, Hamas, Qatar and its al-Jazeera satellite network, with inconsistencies that say more about the factors and Egypt’s banned Ikhwan al-Muslimeen (Muslim shaping the trajectory of contemporary geopolitics in Brotherhood), as being party to a plot against Egypt (al- the Middle East than any alleged conspiracy. Jazeera, April 18). Egypt’s citing of Damascus stems 6 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 from Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hezbollah. Similarly, is its ability to inspire popular dissent and resistance. Cairo sees Hamas as a threat due to the example it sets Hezbollah’s impressive performance against Israel in for Egypt’s embattled Islamist opposition, as well as its combat during the years of the Israeli occupation of alliances with Syria and Iran. Cairo is also threatened southern Lebanon and the Summer 2006 war are cases by Qatar’s rise as a diplomatic heavyweight in the Gulf, in point. Popular displays of solidarity with Hezbollah where it has emerged as a new voice for Arab causes (in across Arab cities such as Cairo and Amman with spite of its close strategic relationship with Washington) predominantly Sunni populations during the July 2006 and an alternative to the pro-U.S. Egyptian- and Saudi- war, for instance, are also indicative of Hezbollah’s led consensus in the region, a role bolstered by its natural popularity. Significantly, Sunni Islamist opposition gas and oil riches and ownership of al-Jazeera. Qatar movements such as the Ikhwan in Egypt were among and Syria were first to call for an emergency meeting Hezbollah’s most vocal supporters during the July 2006 of Arab League members and a ceasefire during Israel’s war (see Terrorism Focus, August 8, 2006). Hezbollah’s invasion of Gaza from December 2008-January 2009. Shi’a Islamist pedigree is irrelevant in this context. In fact, Qatar also welcomed exiled leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah secretary general Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah other Palestinian militant groups to Doha to meet with is widely regarded as a hero in the Arab and greater Arab League members and urged all Arab countries to Muslim world. Many Arabs see Iran in a favorable light immediately cut ties and negotiations with Israel in a due to Tehran’s vocal opposition to the United States show of solidarity with the Palestinians. In contrast, and Israel, not to mention the pro-U.S. regimes in the Egypt and Saudi Arabia boycotted the event. Qatar’s Middle East. In spite of repeated warnings out of Cairo assertiveness during the crisis humiliated Egypt (and and other U.S.-friendly Arab capitals of the rise of an Saudi Arabia). Furthermore, Egypt and other autocratic aggressive Iran that is bent on regional domination, the regimes in the Middle East consider al-Jazeera a threat Arab public continues to identify the United States and because it provides opposition forces a venue to voice Israel as posing the greatest threats by large margins. [1] their opinions. The network’s allotment of airtime to As a result, Egypt, along with U.S.-backed autocracies critics of Egypt’s stance during the Gaza conflict also did such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia that comprise the core not sit well in Cairo. of the so-called “moderate regimes,” has been vocal in playing up the specter of what it sees as an Iranian-led Egypt’s claim that the Ikhwan, the moderate, democratic conspiracy to dominate Egypt and the Middle East. It is reform-minded Islamist movement that represents the against this background that Hezbollah plays an integral main opposition to Mubarak’s rule, was active in the role in the threat of a “Shi’a Crescent” first defined by alleged scheme suggests an effort on the part of Cairo Jordan’s King Abdullah II in December 2004 to describe to tarnish the group’s reputation domestically and Iran’s growing influence from Iraq to the Levant. internationally (al-Jazeera, April 18). The Ikhwan denied any involvement with or knowledge of the Hostilities between Egypt and Hezbollah have reached alleged cell, although they did support any attempts a fever pitch since Hezbollah accused Egypt of colluding to help the besieged Palestinians in Gaza (al-Jazeera, with Israel’s invasion of Gaza (al-Manar [Beirut], April April 11). At the same time, the Ikhwan highlighted the 10). During Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in July 2006, importance of defending Egyptian national security and Hezbollah also accused Egypt, along with Jordan and criticized attempts by foreigners to violate the country’s Saudi Arabia, of tacitly supporting Israel (see Terrorism sovereignty on any grounds (al-Ahram Weekly [Cairo], Focus, August 8, 2006). While largely ignored in the April 23-29). U.S. and Western press, the regional fallout from Israel’s invasion of Gaza and the escalating human cost on the Hezbollah’s Threat to Egypt Palestinians continues to weigh heavily on Egypt and the wider Middle East. For its part, Cairo remains on Cairo’s official portrayal of Hezbollah’s threat to Egypt the defensive domestically and in the wider Arab arena obscures the true nature of the Hezbollah threat. Egypt for the role it played in the latest war in Gaza and for its accuses Hezbollah of, among other things, religious support of the Israeli blockade against the Palestinians fanaticism, terrorism and, most importantly, serving as that was instituted after Hamas emerged victorious in a spearhead of Iranian expansionism. The true threat the January 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections Hezbollah poses to Egypt and, for that matter, other (al-Jazeera, April 13). U.S.-backed autocracies in the Middle East, however, 7 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 Hezbollah’s Response The Irony of the Iranian Threat

Hezbollah’s political, information, and social service In an ironic twist, adherents of the most extreme strains wings operate relatively transparently in the mainstream of radical (namely violent Salafi militants of Lebanese politics and society. In contrast, the group’s who subscribe to al-Qaeda’s brand of radicalism) along military and intelligence wings are shrouded behind with U.S.-backed autocracies like Egypt, Jordan, and a cloak of secrecy that rivals—if not exceeds—the Saudi Arabia, as well as the United States and Israel all behavior of state actors. This shroud of secrecy extends identify Iran as a serious threat. Naturally, each of these to all matters related to Hezbollah’s membership. But unlikely bedfellows defines the perceived threat from in a move atypical of the ultra secretive organization, Iran differently. For reasons discussed earlier, pro-U.S. Nasrallah acknowledged in a lengthy response to Cairo authoritarian regimes, themselves the original targets of that one of the men in Egyptian custody, Sami Chehab, radical Islamist ire long before radical Islamists turned was in fact a member of Hezbollah operating in Egypt. their sites on the United States, also identify Iran as a Nasrallah admitted that Chehab was providing logistical threat in political, ideological, and military terms. The assistance to the Palestinians along the Egyptian-Gaza United States and Israel also harbor deep concerns about border: “Our brother Sami, is a member of Hezbollah, Iran stemming from Tehran’s nuclear aspirations to the we do not deny this…” (al-Manar, April 10). Egyptian extent of Iranian influence in Iraq and Afghanistan. authorities detained Chehab, a Lebanese citizen, in Egypt on November 19, 2008 (Press TV, May 1). Radical Salafi extremists despise the revolutionary brand of Shi’a Islam propagated by Tehran, and see Nasrallah, however, vehemently denied Cairo’s Shi’a believers overall as heretics and apostates. Given allegations that Hezbollah intended to mount attacks its Shi’a Islamist credentials and ties to Iran, Salafi against Egypt or foreign targets on Egyptian soil. He extremists view Hezbollah’s presence and influence also rejected the charges that Hezbollah was planning in Lebanon and the wider region in an adversarial, to orchestrate a coup at the behest of Iran against the sectarian context. The spread of Iranian influence and Mubarak regime or to cause any problems for the the marked rise of Shi’a political power in Iraq since Egyptian people. Regarding Cairo’s allegations, he the fall of Baghdad also helped feed Salafi conspiracy stated, “The aim here is to agitate the Egyptian people theories that the United States, Iran and Hezbollah are and to defame Hezbollah’s pure and bright image. This secretly colluding to undermine Sunni Islam across the aims to only please the Americans and Israelis, for the globe. Yet al-Qaeda’s brand of radicalism has never been Egyptian regime has failed by all means” (al-Manar, able to gain a widespread following; not even close, in April 10). Nasrallah also admitted that Hezbollah was fact, to the popular following and respect enjoyed by actively supporting the Palestinians in Gaza and that Iranian-sponsored groups such as Hezbollah across the Hezbollah’s sole concern was countering Israeli threats region. To undermine their enemies, Iran and Hezbollah to Lebanon (al-Manar, April 9; April 10). will continue to reach out to Arab and Muslim publics through a non-sectarian resistance narrative that resonates deeply with those concerned with the plight In a reflection of Nasrallah’s confidence in light of the of the Palestinians, domestic political opposition in the serious allegations Egypt leveled against his organization, Middle East, social justice, and related themes. he also mentioned: “If aiding the Palestinians is a crime, then I am proud of it” and that “the Egyptian regime Conclusion should be charged and condemned for besieging Gaza” (al-Manar, April 10). Nasrallah’s bold response was intended for ordinary Egyptians, as well as a wider In spite of the media hype, the apparent defeat of Arab and Muslim public—Sunni and Shi’a alike—the the Hezbollah-led March 8 Alliance in Lebanon’s vast majority of whom deeply resent Egypt’s stance on June 7 parliamentary elections will do little to stymie Gaza and the larger Palestinian question. Moreover, Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanese politics and beyond. Nasrallah makes it apparent that Cairo’s attempt to Nevertheless, Hezbollah’s defeat at the polls will accuse Hezbollah of plotting terrorist attacks against inevitably be described in Cairo—as well as in Riyadh, Egypt represents a sign of desperation on the part of Amman, Washington, and Tel Aviv—as a major setback Egypt to divert attention away from its unpopular for Iran. On the contrary, Hezbollah’s loss at the polls stance regarding Gaza and the Palestinians. represents a blessing in disguise for the organization; 8 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 Hezbollah is able to preserve its role as a symbol During Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war, Mullo Abdullo of resistance, a role strengthened by its position as a was an important Islamist commander, operating as part powerful opposition force in Lebanese politics, without of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO), an awkward assuming the myriad of burdens that come with being coalition of liberal democrats and Islamists. If Abdullo the dominant political power in Beirut. has returned, it would mark his first known presence in Tajikistan since September 2000, when a government offensive in the Darband region destroyed most of his Chris Zambelis is an associate with Helios Global, Inc., group, with over 40 fighters captured. Mullo Abdullo a risk analysis firm based in the Washington, DC area. himself was reported captured in this encounter. He is He is a regular contributor to a number of publications, supposed to have been sent on to Dushanbe, but was where he writes on Middle East politics, political Islam, apparently amnestied and released, taking advantage of international security, and related issues. The opinions his unexpected freedom to leave for Afghanistan whereby expressed here are the author’s alone and do not according to some accounts, Ahmad Shah Masoud necessarily reflect the position of Helios Global, Inc. made him a commander in the Northern Alliance. Other reports say he joined the Taliban and was captured by Notes: government forces in Kandahar province in 2002, after which little was heard of him (Asia Plus, May 23; RFE/

RL, May 21). Tajikistan authorities were unable to [1] See University of Maryland (w/ Zogby International), confirm reports of Abdullo’s detention in Afghanistan “2009 Annual Arab Public Opinion Survey,” May 2009, (Interfax, May 22). http://www.brookings.edu/events/2009/~/media/Files/ events/2009/0519_arab_opinion/2009_arab_public_ The Legacy of Tajikistan’s Civil War opinion_poll.pdf. Government troops are currently at work in the Rasht Valley, in the western part of the Gorno-Badakhshan Are the Afghan Taliban Using Autonomous Oblast (GBAO). The Garm district of the Rasht Valley has a long history as a center for Islamist Tajikistan’s Islamist Militants to militancy, dating back to its days as an important center for the anti-Soviet Bashmachi rebellion of the 1920’s. Pressure Dushanbe on NATO During the civil war the Garmis sided with the Islamists Supply Routes? and suffered severe retribution for their efforts. The Rasht Valley was also the main operational base for By Andrew McGregor Mullah Abdullo’s forces during the war.

s Pakistan’s military continues to consolidate The GBAO, located in the Pamir Mountains, occupies its control over the Malakand region of the 45% of the territory of Tajikistan but has only 3% of ANorth-West Frontier Province and talks of the total population. GBAO was created by the Soviets continuing on into South Waziristan, there is some in 1925 and joined the Tajik Soviet Socialist Republic in apprehension in neighboring states that foreign fighters 1929. During the civil war, the GBAO was a stronghold based in northwest Pakistan may begin leaving their of Islamists affiliated with the UTO. Eastern Tajikistan now-endangered bases for home. Various reports claim is also the home of the Pamiri, an Isma’ili Shi’a people foreign militants are on the move towards the Central who were targeted for massacres after trying to separate Asian states in the aftermath of the Pakistan Army’s from Tajikistan in 1991. The Pamiris were mostly offensive against Islamist extremists in the Swat Valley supporters of the UTO. (Jang [Rawalpindi], June 3; Millat [Dushanbe], May 21; Ozodagon [Dushanbe], May 21). A new military Roughly 100,000 people were killed and over a million operation in eastern Tajikistan suggests the Central displaced in the 1992-1997 civil war, which pitted Asian nation is responding to the return of such democratic reformers and Islamists against the Soviet extremists under the command of veteran Tajik jihadi elites of the northern Leninabad and central Kulyab leader Mullo Abdullo Rakhimov, though the Dushanbe- regions who sought to continue their dominance of based government says it is only conducting routine the Tajikistan government in the post-Soviet era. By anti-narcotics operations. 1993 the Garmi and Pamiri opposition forces were 9 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 suffering from serious reverses on the battlefield and Security and Customs units. The inclusion of members a violent campaign by government forces determined of the Interior Ministry’s Special Forces is considered to drive Garmi and Pamiri civilians from Tajikistan. unusual for an anti-narcotics operation (RFE/RL, May Both civilians and Islamist fighters took refuge across 21). Tajik Border Guards and Drug Control Agency the border in Afghanistan, where the Islamist fighters officers were reported to have seized more than 80 kg received arms and assistance from ethnic Tajik Ahmad of drugs in eastern Darvoz District (along the north- Shah Massoud, leader of the Northern Alliance military west border of the GBAO) in the opening days of the forces. The fighters also received religious training operation, but a Dushanbe daily reported rumors of in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A Russian intervention fighting between government forces and militants in the in the civil war brought Afghan nationals north to same district, noting the government could not give “a fight the Russians around Dushanbe in 1996. When clear explanation of the situation” in eastern Darvoz a negotiated settlement brought an end to the war in (Nigoh [Dushanbe], May 28; Tojikiston [Dushanbe], 1997, Mullo Abdullo was one of a number of Islamist May 28). commanders who refused to lay down arms, using bases in Afghanistan to mount cross-border attacks on The Return of Mullo Abdullo Tajikistani security forces in the Rasht Valley. There are claims that Abdullo participated in raids on Kyrgyzstan in the late 1990s as a field commander in the Islamic Reports from Russia claimed that Abdullo crossed Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). [1] into eastern Tajikistan several weeks ago and has been canvassing elders in the Rasht Valley for support. The original group of 100 fighters has allegedly grown to Operation Kuknor 300 (Kommersant, May 25).

According to government sources, Operation Kuknor (Operation Poppy) began in the Rasht Valley on May A source in the Interior Ministry stated, “It is not 15 and is expected to continue until November, an known who is spreading such rumors, but we will unusually long period when compared to previous anti- get to the bottom of this. It is quiet and calm [in the narcotics operations. Spokesmen say the operation is Rasht Valley], no operations are being conducted there designed to interdict narcotics trafficking and eliminate except for Kuknor-2009” (Interfax, May 22). At the poppy cultivation, but this explanation has raised same time it was denying cross-border incursions by eyebrows in the isolated valley, which has never been militants, the Interior Ministry reported the discovery part of any known smuggling routes. Its climate is also of a cache of weapons in a Dushanbe home, including a generally considered unfavorable for the cultivation of grenade launcher with 27 rounds, five assault rifles, two poppies. The Tajikistan Interior Ministry expanded on grenades and a large quantity of ammunition (Interfax, the reasons behind the operation: May 23, 2009).

Due to favorable weather conditions large fields Whether by design or coincidence, there have recently of opium poppy plants and other drugs of the been a number of arrests of high-profile former opium group were observed in the Afghan associates of Mullo Abdullo on charges that appear (northeastern) province of Badakhshan… A to have been ignored for years. On May 17 the Tajik wide-scale operation is being carried out in Interior Ministry announced the arrest of Muzzafar Tajikistan, including in the Rasht valley, as part Nuriddinov and several other former Islamist UTO of the Poppy 2009 operation in order to prevent leaders. Nuriddinov was a well-known associate of drug smuggling cases from the neighboring Mullo Abdullo in the period 1994-1999 and the timing country and to uncover cases of cultivation of his arrest led to increased speculation in Dushanbe of drug plants. The Interior Ministry does not over the real intent of the government’s operations have information about armed people who in the GBAO (Asia Plus [Dushanbe], May 21). allegedly entered Tajikistan’s territory (Asia Plus Among other “past crimes” dating back to the 1990s, [Dushanbe], May 23). Nuriddinov is wanted for murdering two policemen with a Kalashnikov rifle. Prior to his involvement with The operation includes units of the Interior Ministry, the Mullo Abdullo, Nuriddinov was a member of a militant Drug Control Agency, the State Committee on National group under field commander Fathullo Tojiddinov, who 10 TerrorismMonitor Volume VII u Issue 16 u June 12, 2009 later became a leader of the Interior Ministry’s rapid and other violence in neighboring Uzbekistan raising deployment unit before being charged with possession fears of a return of Islamist fighters to that region, of six kilograms of raw opium in June 2007 (Asia Plus, Dushanbe may be making efforts to preempt the March 18, 2008). Another former member of Abdullo’s penetration of Islamist fighters from Pakistan in force. command, Djumaboi Sanginov, was arrested on May An anti-narcotics operation would provide useful 31 in Dushanbe for crimes allegedly committed as a cover for extensive ground sweeps and the systematic member of the UTO in 1996 (Ferghan.ru, June 1). collection of intelligence necessary to prevent Islamist Another Target for Operation Kuknor? militants from establishing new bases inside Tajikistan’s Rasht Valley. Other reports claim the operation in the Rasht Valley is directed at arresting former opposition Andrew McGregor is Director of Aberfoyle International warlord Mirzokhuja Ahmadov for his involvement in Security, a Toronto-based agency specializing in security unspecified “past crimes.” An attempt last year to arrest issues related to the Islamic world. He received a Ahmadov resulted in the shooting death of Colonel Ph.D. from the University of Toronto’s Dept. of Near Oleg Zakharchenko, chief of Tajikistan’s OMON police and Middle Eastern Civilizations in 2000 and is a unit, by one of Ahmadov’s followers. Ahmadov was former Research Associate of the Canadian Institute serving as head of the anti-organized crime unit in the of International Affairs. He is the managing editor of Rasht Valley at the time, a post he received as part of the Jamestown Foundation’s Global Terrorism Analysis integration efforts following the civil war. During the publications. war, Ahmadov was a well-known UTO field commander. Ahmadov claims Zakharchenko’s death was the result of his men thinking their headquarters was under attack Notes: by gunmen. He further claims to have received a verbal pardon from Tajikistan president Emomali Rahmon [1] Muzaffar Olimov and Saodat Olimova, “Region (Eurasianet.org, February 5, 2008; RFE/RL April 14, early warning report: Political Islam in Tajikistan,” May 20). Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER), July 31, 2001. Conclusion

The Taliban recently warned Tajikistan against providing a new supply route for U.S. and NATO military supplies on their way to Afghanistan (Daydzhest Press, May 28). Nevertheless, Tajikistan agreed to a deal to allow non- military supplies to pass through Tajikistan as part of a vast new northern supply route meant to provide an alternative to the turbulent Khyber Pass of northwest Pakistan (BBC, April 21). If Mullo Abdullo has passed from Pakistan through Afghanistan into eastern Tajikistan, it may be part of an effort by the Taliban to convince Dushanbe to rethink its cooperation with the Coalition.

Speaking at a meeting with EU ministers working on greater cooperation with Central Asian states, Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister, Hamrokhon Zarifi, confirmed the nation’s readiness to support international anti-terrorism operations against the Taliban and al- Qaeda. “Threats by Taliban insurgents do not frighten us and Tajikistan signed an agreement on giving a corridor for the land transit of U.S. non-military goods to Afghanistan” (ITAR-TASS, May 29). Nevertheless, with a recent and sudden outbreak of suicide bombings 11